Test your VCA skills

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Post Post #50 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:52 am

Post by acidphoenix »

In post 48, Raskolnikov wrote:It's number of posts in that phase AFAIK
this is correct
true evil is taking away the ability to choose

ms sux
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Post Post #51 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:55 am

Post by acidphoenix »

smith(or anyone) if you want to ask something easy to answer from d1-3 feel free
true evil is taking away the ability to choose

ms sux
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Post Post #52 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:59 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

too late i spoiled myself :P
Show
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #53 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:59 am

Post by acidphoenix »

smh
true evil is taking away the ability to choose

ms sux
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Post Post #54 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

lol u knew it was coming, i can't help it :P
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #55 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:20 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 45, Raskolnikov wrote:
In post 42, callforjudgement wrote:If scum are counting the other scum on a wagon and voting accordingly, that implies an intentional effort to manipulate VCA, and it can be hard enough to do reliably even when it isn't being manipulated by the scum.
Manipulated VCs wouldn't just neutralize VCA but like massively screw over anyone doing the VCA compared to if they were just scumhunting traditionally huh? You have no way of telling manipulated vca apart from actual vca short of mislynching the people and losing the game no?

Oh boy that reminds me of this game people were VCAing the entire game up to and including LYLO even though it was mentioned as a big thing early d1. It's like dude, if you start the game off talking about VCA you think people are going to just ignore it?
I know that my scumteam once won a game using an inconsistent bus (the rest of the team deserves credit for coming up with it rather than me, though). Start by hard-bussing (I was one of the bussers) but get someone else on the team to defend the target equally as hard and try to stop it going through. People are now seeing the bus target as likely town, and the bussers as mildly scum (especially because they can't really explain their push, only that the target is really scummy). I kept on trying to push the bus target on subsequent days, knowing that nobody would really go along with me; when I subsequently ended up flipping scum it basically guaranteed that the bus target would coast to endgame.

I'd consider that strategy to pretty much be intentional VCA manipulation (although of course it's manipulating things other than the vote count, it's mostly based around what people deduce from your votes). Unfortunately, it's only really usable in a Large because it requires four scum (and has some risks of its own).

I think there are VCA-manipulation strategies that work even in a smaller game (e.g. having the two scum in a Micro town-read each other all game and work cooperatively using reads that are similar but not identical). The problem, though, is that VCA manipulation means that you're sacrificing options. If you want as much flexibility as scum as possible, you're probably going to have to split reads to some extent so that you can plausibly have at least one member of the scumteam read any given member as town. If you go for a more focused strategy, you'll find that you have to let some "universal townreads" through who will become something of a problem at lylo because everyone then will broadly look town; VCA won't show much in any direction (you can manipulate your votes but you can't manipulate the townies' votes), so then it becomes a competition of who looks most town, with everyone looking somewhat townish. That's a dangerous situation to be in, so VCA manipulation is rare. (As scum, though, I've normally found it worthwhile to let one supertownie through to lylo; this is less costly in power-role-light games because if someone is universally considered town you can just nightkill them. This gives more flexibility to screw around with VCA because you don't need to potentially drive suspicion on everyone.)
scum
· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
town
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Post Post #56 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:35 pm

Post by Raskolnikov »

Spoiler:
Quick (LYNCH)
- House (34), AwesomeDolphin (123),
Archangel (19
), Csargo (18), Takhitty (34),
philgone (5)

AwesomeDolphin - BATMAN (23),
Quick (101)
,
Alabaster (36)
, TomKat (14),
Fake Passport (16)

gbsfranca - Adrian/Zone (4)
Alabaster
- gbsfranca(13)
Not Voting -
Sagittarius(0)
, Psycho666Soldier(10)
Sagittarius nightkilled

day 2:
Alabaster (LYNCH)
- Takhitty (32), AwesomeDolphin (125), Csargo (44), House (54),
Fake Passport (20)

Fake Passport
- TomKat (11),
philgone (16)
, BATMAN (15),
Archangel (39)

philgone
- Adrian/Zone (70), gbsfranca (27), Psycho666Soldier (12)
BATMAN -
Alabaster (41)

philgone nightkilled

day 3:
Fake Passport (LYNCH)
- BATMAN (23),
Archangel (12)
, Psycho666Soldier (26), TomKat (17), gbsfranca (58), Adrian/Zone (40)
TomKat - AwesomeDolphin (18), House (38), Takhitty (27)
Takhitty - Csargo (42)
Not Voting -
Fake Passport(9)

archangel nightkilled

scum lynch d1 again suggests some level of bussing, however very close dueling wagons decided by town hammer suggests scum counterwagoning as well
why would you kill sagittarius in an all vanilla game...
philgone nk suggests some of the scumreads on him aren't real? idk why kill him though
idk why kill archangel either. slightly suggests scum is in fake passport wagon/ scum wants to keep tomkat wagon to mislynch him if hes town but thats not reliable
WTF are these nightkills.

Speculation: scum either bussed quick or joined the counterwagon, but did not sit around doing nothing while there were intense dueling wagons
result from there would be Adrian/zone, gbsfranca, and psych666soldier prob town
but phil nightkill suggests at least one of these scumreads isn't real?

tomkat feels like scum in any case. in general.

Alternate theory: Quick and awesomedolphin were dueling scum wagons?

Scum 1: probably tomkat
Scum 2: bus vote, either csargo (bad association with tomkat) or awesomedolphin (why is he still alive after winning a duel with scum and posting this much?)
that doesn't explain the philgone nightkill but idk how to sort between those 3 low impact lurkish players who don't do much, they're all kinda the same

err. any in that pool 3 id probably focus on.

Welp this could be entirely wrong fuck
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Post Post #57 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:44 pm

Post by Raskolnikov »

Spoiler:
lol all 3 as town

well, it's a good thing I don't use vca much
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Post Post #58 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:54 pm

Post by Raskolnikov »

Spoiler:
so I guess the "tells/suggestions" were there and noticed but just took the wrong conclusions from them
scum lynch d1 again suggests some level of bussing - correct

Speculation: scum either bussed quick or joined the counterwagon, but did not sit around doing nothing while there were intense dueling wagons
result from there would be
Adrian/zone, gbsfranca, and psych666soldier prob town
- correct

idk why kill archangel either. slightly suggests scum is in fake passport wagon/
scum wants to keep tomkat wagon to mislynch him
if hes town but thats not reliable - this was a good conclusion after all

but phil nightkill suggests at least one of these scumreads isn't real? - not correct, but nightkills in general were obviously borked

WTF are these nightkills. - should have thought harder at this. would still potentially have pointed me down the wrong road with awesomedolphin, but house and takhitty getting towncred from bus and making the weird kills as a result wouldve also made sense

This is kinda a hard one though. I guess I'd speculate the reason scum didn't kill awesomedolphin was wifom, but i wasnt expecting logical kills after seeing the n1 kill as more of a crazy move than a tactical move to maintain the status quo

Well that was interesting.
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Post Post #59 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:21 pm

Post by smilefires »

Man, I know both these games. :P Interesting discussions though.

Spoiler:
I think the second VCA gets easier if you take it one person at a time instead of trying to hit both right off the bat.
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Post Post #60 (ISO) » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:12 am

Post by kuribo »

The only VCA I’ve ever found useful is the Aborted Bus

You see this when a player is bussing a team mate and the town starts to follow. The bussing player gets cold feet about losing a teammate, and quickly shifts wagon for vague reasons.

People on this site rely on bad VCA too much sometimes, and I’ve absolutely exploited that fact as scum; both by voting in a complete bloc with my buddies and by collectively avoiding wagons on certain players. Among other things.
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Post Post #61 (ISO) » Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:24 pm

Post by nancy »

In post 0, mhsmith0 wrote:You have the following information and ONLY the following information:

1) This is a secret alias game (duh)
2) You know that it's 13/4
3) Every slot colored green is a dead villager, the one red slot is a dead wolf
4) At the dawn of day 5, it's now 6/3
5) For clarity, night kills were:
N1 Colonel Mustard
N2 Monseur Brunette
N3 Professor Plum
N4 Dr. Orchid

Who does VCA point to as being likely town? Who likely wolf? And why?

Spoiler:
VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
6
Mr. Green
Dr. Orchid
(40), Madame Rose (48), The Cook (38), Mrs. White (59),
Professor Plum
(246),
Monsieur Brunette
(245)
3
Captain Brown
The Butler (93), Mr. Boddy (39), Captain Brown (28)
2
The Cook
Colonel Mustard
(176),
Mr. Green
(133)
1
The Butler
Sergeant Gray
(22)
1
Miss Peach
Mrs. Peacock (44)
1
Miss Scarlet
Prince Azure
(113)
1
Prince Azure
Miss Scarlet
(126)
2Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Miss Peach (6)

Mr. Green
was lynched. They were:
Mafia Goon
.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
8
Miss Scarlet
Prince Azure
(71), Mrs. Peacock (88), Mrs. White (75), The Butler (104),
Monsieur Brunette
(256),
Sergeant Gray
(50), Madame Rose (80),
Miss Scarlet
(119)
3
Prince Azure
Professor Plum
(185), The Cook (6), Mr. Boddy (79)
1
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (40)
1
Sergeant Gray
Dr. Orchid
(57)
2Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Captain Brown (0)

Miss Scarlet
was lynched. They were:
Vanilla Town
.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
4
Prince Azure
Mr. Boddy (81),
Sergeant Gray
(85),
Prince Azure
(114), Mrs. White (37)
2
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (44), Mrs. Peacock (58)
2
Sergeant Gray
Dr. Orchid
(26), The Cook (18)
1
The Cook
Madame Rose (61)
4Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Captain Brown (3), The Butler (93),
Professor Plum
(97)

Prince Azure
was lynched. They were:
Town Doctor + (1-Shot)
.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
4
Sergeant Gray
Mrs. Peacock (72), The Butler (30),
Dr. Orchid
(11), The Cook (6)
2
Miss Peach
Sergeant Gray
(49), Madame Rose (16)
2
Captain Brown
Mrs. White (29), Mr. Boddy (32)
2
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (24), Captain Brown (39)
1Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0)


Sergeant Gray
was lynched. They were:
Vanilla Town
.


Please no cheating and looking up the results of the game :good:

I'd also prefer for people to make their guesses and reasoning in spoiler= tags but hey it's a free country :)
Spoiler:
I typed out several paragraphs of reasoning but then I lost it all because my browser is stupid then tried typing it out again but lost it all again so slanky summary by way of readslist:

Mr. Slate-Grey

Sergeant Brown
Miss Peach

Mr. Butler

Mr. Boddy
Mrs. Peacock

Mrs. White

Madame Rose

The Cook

Mr. Slate-Grey is never wolf here; you don't chain this many mislynches with one of your wolves doing nothing all game. Similar with Peach, there aren't many worlds here where scum!Peach does nothing day 1 then tunnels for the rest of the game; I don't think she's ever with Sergeant Brown. Brown basically looks a lot like shitter town who vomits his game down the kitchen sink to spite the world and in the world where he is a wolf then he flailed super hard day 1 while his buds were in control and bussing then did nothing the rest of the game which doesn't make a ton of sense.

Mr. Boddy looks like either scum with exactly Brown or just inno, I don't think he's incompetent enough to be on the counterwagon to scum day 1 with the way the lynches have played out and then to also get into an omgus slapfight with Brown on day 4 doesn't really match up. I don't think Butler doesn't vote on day 3 if he's a wolf and I don't think he's on the counterwagon day 1 either.

Mrs. Peacock could maybe be a wolf just because I barely even noticed her despite writing up a bunch of reasoning multiple times but there's not a lot point towards a world where she is a wolf except her easy vanity wagon on an abstainer day 1 and potentially the way she chains Sergeant Gray's lynch after Azure presumably went down screaming for his head; soft not w/w read with Madame Rose because of the way they both tag Peach but that's not super indicative.

Mrs. White hammering a self-voting PR day 3 then immediately voting another self-voter the next day makes very little sense coming from town but it's possible that she's just a very impulsive / irrational player. Madame Rose voting Cook on day 3 looks pretty blatantly like distancing for a bunch of reasons. The Cook is always a wolf for the way he's leading mislynches without seeming to be plus the night 1 kill makes very little sense in a world where Cook is town.

Basically the way that the day 1 scum lynch happened despite Brown self-voting combined with town chaining mislynches after that makes it pretty clear that scum really wanted that wagon to go through so there are always going to be at least 2 wolves on there which means that the day 1 counterwagon very probably has zero scum and at that point with Slate-Grey clear you have a pretty limited pool plus with the way that the nightkills hit everyone else on the day 1 lynch wagon it should just be Cook/Rose/White almost always even though that does feel maybe a little too easy. Outside chance of Peacock or Doddy I guess if I'm wrong on one of my aligned/unaligned reads or in some bizarre world where scum didn't bus (which is impossible because Colonel Mustard was killed night 1) then scum I guess are slankers and town fluked a scum lynch before devolving to Civilization tier in which case lolsmith for even posting this exercise.
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Post Post #62 (ISO) » Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:15 pm

Post by nancy »

Interesting. I think this example was probably a little easier than VCA typically is, but
Spoiler:
the nightkills were all really obvious/bad and scum bussed so hard that it basically cleared several town slots and made it fairly obvious what their agenda was afterwards, even if no one in the game caught on to that. I think VCA is a lot harder in games where scum don't do a lot of special maneuvers. The only thing that made this difficult was the fact that the bus occured on day 1, so there were no real voting patterns from the flipped scum to analyze.

Something I didn't mention that got lost in the earlier writeups (which were way longer than what I ended up with above) was that I felt Peach/Peacock were very slightly aligned; I think scum are much more likely to do a lot of nervous distancing on day 1 in proportion to later days so in a world where there was only 1 scum bussing (a very unlikely world, albeit not impossible, just read Civ Mafia since I get the feeling town was similar levels of awful here) and Peach was scum then Peacock would probably be one of the first places I'd go looking for a partner.

Basically though I don't expect to ever get solid reads just from VCA but god was The Cook obvious, locking that read in really helped me solve for the other two.

PS, pretty interesting to do VCA just off day-end totals.

PPS, that Azure/Scarlet double omgus day 1 really should've been clearing for those two slots. First thing I noticed when I saw the VCs was god, I know they're town because they're green but you really don't need the color. Like that just doesn't happen when there's a scum lynch going on.
:2017-2018:
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Post Post #63 (ISO) » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:20 am

Post by Titus »

Spoiler: My Guess with all votes from mhsmith0
Cook, Peacock, Rose
Show
The scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx

You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin

GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy

VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.

All hail the Scum Empress!
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Post Post #64 (ISO) » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:55 am

Post by nancy »

Wish you'd share your process :(

I never could figure out how Titus did VCA
:2017-2018:
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Post Post #65 (ISO) » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:05 pm

Post by TheGoldenParadox »

Spoiler: My guess
Madame Rose, The Cook, Mrs. White
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Post Post #66 (ISO) » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:40 pm

Post by UC Voyager »

Okay. Give me a min. VCA is my specialty. I will solve this game.
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #67 (ISO) » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:52 pm

Post by UC Voyager »

In post 0, mhsmith0 wrote:You have the following information and ONLY the following information:

1) This is a secret alias game (duh)
2) You know that it's 13/4
3) Every slot colored green is a dead villager, the one red slot is a dead wolf
4) At the dawn of day 5, it's now 6/3
5) For clarity, night kills were:
N1 Colonel Mustard
N2 Monseur Brunette
N3 Professor Plum
N4 Dr. Orchid

Who does VCA point to as being likely town? Who likely wolf? And why?

Spoiler:
VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
6
Mr. Green
Dr. Orchid
(40), Madame Rose (48), The Cook (38), Mrs. White (59),
Professor Plum
(246),
Monsieur Brunette
(245)
3
Captain Brown
The Butler (93), Mr. Boddy (39), Captain Brown (28)
2
The Cook
Colonel Mustard
(176),
Mr. Green
(133)
1
The Butler
Sergeant Gray
(22)
1
Miss Peach
Mrs. Peacock (44)
1
Miss Scarlet
Prince Azure
(113)
1
Prince Azure
Miss Scarlet
(126)
2Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Miss Peach (6)

Mr. Green
was lynched. They were:
Mafia Goon


I find it interesting that there are exactly 3 unidentified voters on scum that were all voting around the same time. I doubt scum could get all 3 to buds The one so I am assuming one Mabye two are tow. Cook is being voted for by scum, but scum wasn't on biggest wagon.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
8
Miss Scarlet
Prince Azure
(71), Mrs. Peacock (88), Mrs. White (75), The Butler (104),
Monsieur Brunette
(256),
Sergeant Gray
(50), Madame Rose (80),
Miss Scarlet
(119)
3
Prince Azure
Professor Plum
(185), The Cook (6), Mr. Boddy (79)
1
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (40)
1
Sergeant Gray
Dr. Orchid
(57)
2Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Captain Brown (0)

Miss Scarlet
was lynched. They were:
Vanilla Town
.

Hmmm. Cook is on azure. Rose on big wagons. Butler is now on big wagon. He was on the second biggest day one.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
4
Prince Azure
Mr. Boddy (81),
Sergeant Gray
(85),
Prince Azure
(114), Mrs. White (37)
2
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (44), Mrs. Peacock (58)
2
Sergeant Gray
Dr. Orchid
(26), The Cook (18)
1
The Cook
Madame Rose (61)
4Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Captain Brown (3), The Butler (93),
Professor Plum
(97)

Prince Azure
was lynched. They were:
Town Doctor + (1-Shot)
.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
4
Sergeant Gray
Mrs. Peacock (72), The Butler (30),
Dr. Orchid
(11), The Cook (6)
2
Miss Peach
Sergeant Gray
(49), Madame Rose (16)
2
Captain Brown
Mrs. White (29), Mr. Boddy (32)
2
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (24), Captain Brown (39)
1Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0)


Sergeant Gray
was lynched. They were:
Vanilla Town
.


Please no cheating and looking up the results of the game :good:

I'd also prefer for people to make their guesses and reasoning in spoiler= tags but hey it's a free country :)


Okay I don't need to go past that in explaining. I read the other VC so I know what I think.


Spoiler:
It was cook, rose, butler
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #68 (ISO) » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:57 pm

Post by UC Voyager »

Spoiler:
poor cook. He was so obvious

I find it surprising it as white. I figured it would be harder to get all scum to bus like that
so...i don't get enough sleep
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Post Post #69 (ISO) » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:00 am

Post by profii »

Spoiler: VCA
Cook & Rose are probably the easy picks. I'd struggle to pick another scum without looking at wagons and stuff.
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Post Post #70 (ISO) » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:35 am

Post by nancy »

>enters thread
>looks at the solution
>picks the scumteam
>considers being unsure on 1 to make it look more believable
:2017-2018:
hi meet my mafiascum gravestone, the flowers were probably left by camn or schadd or Prism, blow them kisses for me would you?
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northsidegal
northsidegal
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northsidegal
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Joined: August 23, 2017

Post Post #71 (ISO) » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:40 am

Post by northsidegal »

:good:
wiki | modded | Newbie NewD3 Stats | scripts

things fall apart
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