Kmd4390 wrote:Ok. I want to make a couple of things clear because PoE is going to be our path to victory.
1. I don't think anyone doubts I'm town
I don't usually toot my own horn but I need to now in order for us to have the best chance to win. And I'm not just talking about how town I am either. My experience doesn't even come close to being matched by anyone alive in this game right now. I've been playing actively since a little before my join date on site, off site, and with alts. The biggest break I've taken is maybe a month. I've probably played about 300 games. Go to the member list and sort by total posts. You'll find me on the first page and that's without my alts or offsite games.
Now why am I going on about this? Well, sometimes you luck into a scum lynch. Caught for the wrong reasons, you know? You make bad points but get lucky and the guy is scum anyway. I want to make it perfectly clear that's not what happened with KT. And bear with me, I'm going somewhere with this. KT is first time scum, and no offense if he's still reading, but he didn't play well and was easy for someone with my ability and experience to catch. Here is where I caught him all the way back on Page 2:
Kmd wrote: Unvote, Vote KT for an overreaction to a joke vote and opportunistic Alpha vote. I'm pretty convinced he's scum.
I want to note two things here.
1) how sure I am. I said "pretty convinced" and even on Page 2 I meant it. I've caught scum that early multiple times over the past 7+ years so it's nothing new and frankly no surprise with someone who has never been scum before. (And of course he said he's played elsewhere but mafiascum is clearly different from wherever else he played or he wouldn't have been so obvious)
2) why did I catch him? The overreaction wasn't the important part and I may have even come close to retracting that. It was the Alpha vote. Remember KT was new. Think back to your first game. This is especially helpful if you were newbscum once. You come in thinking "i hope I'm not lynched first. Anyone who is town. Just not me" and if you aren't familiar with the neccessity of RVS as he showed, you are also in serious mode from the word go. So he saw votes on Alpha and hopped on. This is important, but I'll get there.
I don't think I need to pull all of the quotes, but it should be quite clear I wanted KT dead for ALL of Day 1. I advocated for Tier to shoot him. My vote never left him. And at least one person is sitting here thinking "what if you were bussing, KMD? Then what? Why should we trust you?". Let me tell you why. This is an open setup with 2 scum members and we still had a living tracker. Once Tier claimed desperado, it also meant a killing role suspected me of being scum. Bussing on Day 1 would have been suicide. Realize I couldn't have predicted that we'd lose our tracker on Day 1. But scum is in absolutely terrible shape even without our power roles alive and it's all thanks to a Day 1 scum lynch. Can you imagine if we still had our tracker? He'd be confirmed town because scum can't counter without being lynched today or tomorrow and if he didn't catch scum N1, he'd have cleared someone. That gives town 66% to win which is what I'm trying to achieve with this post anyway. Scum absolutely have to survive Day 1 to cruise to victory in this setup.
So let me get to our other clear:
2. Alpha is absolutely NOT scum and anyone who says otherwise should just vote me first
I will put my neck on the line for this slot and not because of their play. Remember how I caught KT? He had blood coming out of his eyes and wherever. He wanted a town lynch and didn't care who, why, or how early. That's why he placed Alpha and eventually Temp at L-1 so early in the game with little to no reasoning. He was after a mislynch. Alpha was that mislynch. Temp flipped town. Alpha is town. If you disagree, put yourself in the mindset of KT as newb scum, seeing what kind of player he was, and tell me why he places that vote on a scumbuddy at that time. He wouldn't. And he didn't. I'd stake my entire reputation on it. He wanted a mislynch and that makes Alpha town.
3.Current gamestate probably has Mario being lynched either today or tomorrow
Mario, if you are town I'm sorry but that's where we are right now. If I can effectively clear you from my own viewpoint, it won't matter. There are people who want you lynched and won't listen to anything else. This is ok because we have two chances. If I do townread you after my analysis I'll do everything in my power, but you'll probably be lynched anyway.
4. That leaves Edos and Variann
I want to decide which of them can be shelved for now because only one scum remains so at least one of them is town. If I can confidently pick one of these two, we've done what I wanted to do which is win by PoE. We have two lynches left and that's probably Mario and one of these two. So our best chance to win is to sort these two slots while I'm still alive (yes, I fully expect to be the NK tonight if we mislynch). Our best bet would obviously be to end the game and lynch scum and if i decide Mario is scum, I'm perfectly fine with lynching him today. But I'd absolutely love to get Edos or Variann to "never lynch" town status first because then the game is all ours.
Unfortunately, I have a busy weekend ahead of me but that's where I am right now. I plan to do a full ISO of Edos, Variann, and then Mario before making any decisions. If you guys can accept that Alpha and myself are town, we are golden.