Open Setup Autopsies (HELP)

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Post Post #25  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:13 pm

In post 8, Mathdino wrote:I'm going to base this on the argument that C9++ is, in practice, balanced. Its history seems to suggest so. However, town has only won 1/8 JK9++ games before I won the last one. The most recent iteration had an extremely imbalanced playerlist (D1 non-bus scum lynch) and only 2 mafia.


Someone needs to update the wiki. ;3

Fixing this:
- Any ideas for giving town more power here? Be sure to read the setup first.
- Vengeful needs to be removed, as no one will actually lynch them.
- Rolecop should be changed to Gunsmith.


Had look back into the Open Game Queue to see if anything really barred a role from not showing up in an Open. Didn't see anything besides announcing that a role has the possibility of showing up and providing a sample PM, so let's take a crack at it.

Alternatively instead of giving town more power, we could limit the amount of power that scum has. Maybe add a role modifier to the Mafia JOAT, if that's allowed in Open.

Adding town power

- Replace the Tracker and 1-Shot Tracker with a Deputy.

- Deputy is an alignment cop backup instead of a role cop. Figuring out the roles is equivalent to finding out someone's alignment because it's an Open setup with no repeating roles in both alignments i.e. Mafia Doctor and Town Doctor. For Goons, the role cop is useless because Goons show up as "Vanilla". In the game we played, Kop backed off of his vote on my slot. He was on the right track, but I think getting the result 'Vanilla' ruined the potential to catch me, the last mafia because I was a Goon. Ultimately, Role Cop is good for catching Mafia PRs and the SK, but not Mafia Goons which is dangerous for the town if they rely on the Cop too much.

- I was going to suggest a Weak Doctor, then realized it's basically another Hider. So... Forget that idea.

- Maybe swap out Town Jailkeeper with Town Role Stopper that blocks kills. According to the wiki, it's a stronger protective role if it can block NKs.

- Maybe swap out the Vengeful with Hated - after they've been lynched they can add on the Hated role modifier to someone who was on their bandwagon. Hated isn't as punishing as Vengeful, usually, and people could still push the lynch for the trade off that if the lynchee nailed the right person - scum or SK - then that could help the town push a lynch the next Day.

- Maybe swap out the Town Vigilante with a Town Bomb instead. I was going to suggest PGO but realized that that might kill a helpful town PR who wasn't a killing role.
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Post Post #26  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:23 pm

Adding onto this, @Math - can you crunch some numbers for me?

Is there a possibility that TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill) and TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer can exist alongside the presence of a Role Cop? If over half of the scum show up as "Vanilla", then the Cop's power is greatly reduced - unless town hunts via associations and can manage to push those lynches despite the Cop claiming to have gotten a "Vanilla" result.

It's like having a Mafia Godfather, or worse, two Godfathers in the form Mafia Goons thanks to the result a Role Cop receives when investigating a Goon.
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Post Post #27  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:55 pm

Re: JK9++: Thanks for commenting!

- Keep in mind the intent of JK9++ is to set itself apart from the more popular C9++, which has roles of Cop, Doc, Vig, Roleblocker, and 1-shot variations thereof. So from a conceptual level, I think alignment cops, docs, and roleblockers are off the table.

- Vengeful would be more useful than a Hatedizer. Keep in mind that the reason Vengeful is useless is that if they ever claim Vengeful in, for example, a massclaim, few would ever doubt their claim. So they would never get lynched. I'd be very surprised to find examples of JK9++ vengeshots. If we replaced it with Hatedizer, same story: someone claims Hatedizer, they function as a Named Townie because no one disputes that claim.

- PGO is a good idea actually within the realm of killing roles. It would have to be voluntary rather than compulsive to avoid killing PRs, but it's interesting, self-confirmable, and can be gamed if you fakeclaim vig when you're actually PGO.

You're correct that TTTT and TTT can exist with a rolecop. It's not unlikely enough at all for me to have to calculate that :P. I wonder if Neapolitan would be a better call for that slot seeing as it's so popular lately. Problem is that role makes massclaims significantly easier and would essentially start functioning as a rolecop.

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Post Post #28  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:22 am

The Neapolitan could be restricted to an X-Shot.
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Post Post #29  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:03 pm

For polygamist, if one mafia gets lynched, they choose one pair to reveal as town and one mafia member (who claimed to be their lover of course) to get killed with him maybe?

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Post Post #30  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:40 pm

In post 8, Mathdino wrote:I'm going to base this on the argument that C9++ is, in practice, balanced. Its history seems to suggest so. However, town has only won 1/8 JK9++ games before I won the last one. The most recent iteration had an extremely imbalanced playerlist (D1 non-bus scum lynch) and only 2 mafia.


c9++ is vaguely sort of balanced in terms of overall factional win equity between town and groupscum, but (imo) that's mainly because half of the rands have serial killers, which tank town win equity, and half don't, which tanks wolf win equity.
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Post Post #31  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:44 pm

I think that, in fact, there's a substantial problem for modular setups in the c9++/jk9++ vein is that win equities for everyone will vary drastically based on the 50-50 odds of a Sk showing up or not.
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Post Post #32  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:18 pm

@Ghost: I agree re: 1-shot Neapolitan.

@Red: I don't think the issue is the game being too townsided. It's the swinginess based on whether or not town breaks the game open with non-mafia strategies.

@smith: So then the logical thing would be to run stats on setups with SKs and those without, yeah?

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Post Post #33  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:20 pm

Yes, that would def. be the logical thing.

I mainly think that there's an inherent problem where you're essentially balancing wincon odds based on omething entirely outside of players' control, i.e. whether or not there's an SK.

But that's a personal preference thing mainly *shrugs*
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Post Post #34  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:29 pm

I suppose the next question would be; can the serial killer be swapped out for another 3rd party role? While still maintaining equal, or better, balance than the SK had in games?

Edit: I'm referring to JK9++.
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Post Post #35  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:36 pm

SK isn't loved by everyone, but like multiball, it's gonna be a factor no matter what, so the best we can do is balance around that factor.

Most SK games should have something of balanced winrate with respect to the 3 factions. Singleball games should obviously be closer to 50/50.

The weirdness of C/JK9++ is that when you sign up for the game, you're coin flipping as to whether or not you're playing an SK game. I don't think I really have a problem with that since it's more of a conceptual issue (and thus a matter of personal preference) than it is a balance thing.

I also don't think there are any 3rd parties really interesting enough beside SK to warrant designing opens around them.

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Post Post #36  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:39 pm

@Dino

Point. If the set up actually switched the SK with something else, it'd probably have to be overhauled to counter this new - probably anti-town - third party.
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Post Post #37  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:50 pm

In post 34, AnonymousGhost wrote:I suppose the next question would be; can the serial killer be swapped out for another 3rd party role? While still maintaining equal, or better, balance than the SK had in games?

Edit: I'm referring to JK9++.


Essentially the nature of the balancing means that if the game is overall reasonably balanced for town/scum winrates, then you're probably going to get town wins solidly >50% when there's no SK and solidly below 50% when there is

Ideally, you'd instead hvae a setup where no SK is a given and then it's balanced given that assumption
And SK is a given and it's balanced given that assumption

but that's not any of the _9++ setups.

I mean, it's not really conceptually impossible to balance around a modular or other form of semi-open setup without using the possibility of an SK rand as a crutch to make the win rates more even. That the setup uses it as a crutch is a weakness inherent in its design.
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Post Post #38  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:13 pm

In post 3, Mathdino wrote:
SWITCH
Spoiler: Roles
1 Mafia Cop Switch
1 Mafia Doc Switch
1 Mafia Vig Switch
1 Serial Killer (with Mafia NK Immunity OR Vig/Cop Immunity)
1 Cop
1 Doctor
1 Vigilante
7 Townies

- Nightstart.
- Every night town PRs are "on" by default.
- Mafiosos that do not perform the NK can "switch" a town PR off.
- SK can kill and also choose to switch any or all of the 3, potentially switching PRs back on.

Fixing this:

Nightstart with a cop and 3 killers is straight up bad. But daystart messes with the switch mechanics.

Would it be better as just 14p Daystart?


Never played in this set up before. I don't know the tendency of how kill happy the killing role will be in the night start, but for the sake of running a worst case scenario, let's say that all 3 shots are fired during Nightstart and that they all hit they're intended target. Let's also say that the Mafi can't shot and perform their Switch ability in the same Night. So, one of the mafi would have to sacrifice the ability to Switch Off in order to fire a Kill Shot. Let's say that the Mafi allow the Doctor to stay On and shut off both the Cop and the Vigilante. Depending on Turn Order, the Vigilante's shot may or may not reach their intended target. Because this is the worst case scenario, for everyone, let's say that the Turn Order allows the Vigilante's shot to go through.

All in all, three people still die and town gets depowered. D1 lynch results in a mislynch and it's 1 v 3 v 7. Vigilante can't fire and there's an increased risk that the Vigilante could hit one of their team mates, so the Mafi don't turn the Vigilante back on. Mafi and SK both successfully fire a shot in N1, but don't cross fire. D2 rolls around and its 1 v 3 v 5. Town's in LyLo and the rest is pretty much history.

To make the game last longer than 2 Day phases, I'd suggest tacking on some role modifiers. Even randomize which role modifiers get attached onto the Killing Roles.

- Even/Odd Night
- Novice - Use this role modifier twice.
- Night Specific - This one... maybe not so much.

Then again, Novice might not work against the Mafi - unless it's a group wide modifier for N0 - because Novice Mafi #1 could just ask Mafi #2 to perform the NK instead because they have the role modifier. Attaching Novice onto the SK or the Town Vigilante would be better because they can't use that loop hole.

Attaching Even/Odd Night onto the Mafis is way more interesting.

Let's say:

Mafi #1 = Odd Night
Mafi #2 = Even Night
Mafi #3 = Novice

Adding the factors of who's got which Switch and whether or not the Mafi can use their Switch Ability and perform the Night Kill and suddenly the decision making process isn't as easy as it was before.

Mafi #1 has to make a decision whether or not they'll Switch Off the Cop or take a chance with the NK. The risk increases because even though Mafi #2 or #3 are the Vigilante Switch and Switch Off the Vigilante, there's the risk of SK cross shooting at the Mafia and killing Mafi #1 before they've had the chance to Switch Off Town Cop, if they choose to fire during N0.

At least, I think this would make the set up less swingy. Someone double check this potential idea just in case.

Edit: In order for this possibly new set up to remain in Open, I'd suggest announcing the possibility of the existence of the role modifiers and the possibility that the killing roles could have duplicate role modifiers.
Last edited by AnonymousGhost on Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #39  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:18 pm

I think you're conceptually on the right track. Just wanna clear up some common misconceptions about the setup. Ironically, the mafia last game was the most confused of all!

All power roles are switched on every night by default.
All switches take place before any night actions are taken.
So for example, say the mafia switch off the Cop and the Doc.
The SK has the ability to switch AND kill, so the SK might switch Cop/Vig and not switch the Doc.
Keep in mind mafia and SK don't know what actions the other took.
In that situation, since Cop was switched twice while Doc and Vig were each switched once, Cop is on and Doc/Vig are both off.
THEN the mafia and SK make their kills.

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Post Post #40  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:22 pm

<~>;

That sounds like a nightmare....
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Post Post #41  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:26 pm

It's probably possible to salvage a switch-like format by designing a game vaguely like it but without any n0 actions, but I feel like it's better to just *switch* your attention instead to a format that isn't in large part a giant RNG outcome (since games with heavy n0 action usage are blatantly RNG given lack of control of who shoots/peeks/protects who)
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Post Post #42  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:32 pm

In post 3, Mathdino wrote:
SWITCH
Spoiler: Roles
1 Mafia Cop Switch
1 Mafia Doc Switch
1 Mafia Vig Switch
1 Serial Killer (with Mafia NK Immunity OR Vig/Cop Immunity)
1 Cop
1 Doctor
1 Vigilante
7 Townies

- Nightstart.
- Every night town PRs are "on" by default.
- Mafiosos that do not perform the NK can "switch" a town PR off.
- SK can kill and also choose to switch any or all of the 3, potentially switching PRs back on.


Taking a more "critical" look at this and what you said, it almost sounds like the Mafi and the SK have the potential to utterly screw with one another's plans.

To clarify, the Switches can't say "I want to Switch the Doctor Off,", they can only say "Switch Doctor" and hope for the best. Is that correct?

If that's the case, I'd say to stick with the role modifiers and allow the Switch Mayhem to continue. Unless we want to drive scum nuts and cheekily add on some Town Switch Role Modifier. /wink wink

PEdit:

@mhsmith

How would Day Start impact the balance/swing of the game compared to Night Start?
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Post Post #43  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:44 pm

Light bulb moment. Could a Psychiatrist replace one of the town PR in JK9++ or Switch and still maintain balance or is that too swingy/crazy for Open games?
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Post Post #44  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:59 am

SWITCH
That's correct. It's presumably night start so players can get some starting info, but the obvious suckiness of nightstart is you can have 3 players dead and a cop guilty depending on what the mafia/SK switch on and off. Day start would run the risk of having mafia claim cop or doc switch at L-1 and killing the doc immediately afterward... but this is no risk that isn't faced by all open setups.

JK9++
Alignment changing would be frowned upon. A lot of people hate SK and might actively try to get the psychiatrist to target them. Runs the risk of people straight up claiming SK.

I'm thinking maybe Watcher is a better/stronger role than Tracker? Not sure how much that would affect the balance. So you'd have
I = 1-shot Watcher
II = Watcher
III = Watcher, 1-shot Watcher
IIII = Watcher, Watcher

P still has JK, H still has Hider (an admittedly interesting role).

Then to prevent the uselessness of Vengefuls I'm thinking Vigs/PGOs but the gamestate would definitely be shifted by the possibility of having PGOs around.

R should definitely be Neapolitan instead of Rolecop. That's at least as useful as roleblocker is.
R = Neapolitan
RR = Neapolitan, 1-shot Neapolitan
RRR = Neapolitan, Neapolitan

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Post Post #45  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:26 am

It would be super cool if JK9++ had pregame mafiachat and daychat by default

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Post Post #46  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:48 am

In post 5, Mathdino wrote:
POLYGAMIST4 Mafia Lovers (1 set)
8 Town Lovers (4 sets)

- Nightless.

Lot to dig into here. To start off, I would argue that there's little value in NOT claiming your lover on Day 1, and it seems like everyone who's played this game has done the same. If anyone has a strategy for this that involves not claiming, do tell.

So if everyone does claim (with scum dividing in 2 and claiming 2 pairs), that makes this essentially a 2:4 Nightless White Flag setup with 6 non-consenting hydrae. This makes the setup extremely unfun. Furthermore, any given townie has only 5 other "slots" to sort.

As played normally, this setup is scumsided. In theory, White Flag means scum can't bus. In practice, scum just runs each other up to L-1 all the time and claims they're totally okay with bussing. Scum's ideal strategy is to distance their pairs as much as possible (or at least treat each other as town). Doing so almost completely removes town's ability to scumhunt. Plus, since the game ends after 2 mislynches, most towns will screw up. This setup is unforgiving.

However, FURTHERMORE, this setup has a breaking strategy. Literally random lynching creates a 60% winrate for town. Why is the actual town winrate 36%? Because in reality, lynches are not random, and scum's high volume of players means they can control the narrative much better. Just one town lover pair not voting for scum is a loss for the other 6 townies.

Now if lynches were random (which people say is against site rules but I can't find this), you'd get 60%, but suppose the town agreed on a single lover pair as a town king (to just decide or dice roll 2 lynches). This leads to a winrate of 70%. Town's optimal strategy is just to find one pair that's being townish and have them roll 2 lynches. Done.

I recently won this setup by reading a low-experience lover pair as newbtown and then sheeping their RVS vote the entire game. Lucked out and we won. When correct play as town is to leave everything in the hands of chance, this is even more unfun for the players involved. You could argue "well don't do that", but then that punishes players playing to win.

Fixing this:

One player from that game said they were trying to rework it, but I don't think this is salvageable. I don't think this setup should run again, and the majority of players from that last game agreed.

Add another town pair of lovers. Or two.

The issue is simply numbers as far as I can tell.

This isn't going to fix this from being a fairly boring setup though.

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Post Post #47  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:55 am

In post 3, Mathdino wrote:
SWITCH
Spoiler: Roles
1 Mafia Cop Switch
1 Mafia Doc Switch
1 Mafia Vig Switch
1 Serial Killer (with Mafia NK Immunity OR Vig/Cop Immunity)
1 Cop
1 Doctor
1 Vigilante
7 Townies

- Nightstart.
- Every night town PRs are "on" by default.
- Mafiosos that do not perform the NK can "switch" a town PR off.
- SK can kill and also choose to switch any or all of the 3, potentially switching PRs back on.

This setup is insanely swingy.

Going through the game history on the wiki page, town has never won a game in which 2 townies died on N0. The last iteration of this setup even had a cop get a N0 guilty. Town lynched 3 scum in 3 days, then mislynched a single time (in LyLo) and lost.

A nightstart game where the alignment of the killed completely changes the game isn't acceptable. In the case that cop and SK both kill townies every night (as is optimal play for both of them), town can only survive 1 mislynch. 2 if the vig shoots town. The win should never be completely outside the realm of possibility for a team.

Meanwhile, if SK shoots mafia N0, the win is practically guaranteed for town or SK.

On a second note this setup is unfun.

Nightstart with a cop ruins the game for both the cop and the caught mafia member, making this more about night play than day play. I was the cop.
Nightstart is also bad for the up-to-3 players that can die N0.

Fixing this:

Nightstart with a cop and 3 killers is straight up bad. But daystart messes with the switch mechanics.

Would it be better as just 14p Daystart?

This game is outdated, was likely made when site meta was night start.

I also just think the mechanic is a bit silly and pointless. Why do you want to salvage the setup?

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Post Post #48  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:15 am

Making it daystart will probably fix it enough regardless.

Also have the SK choose their immunity night 1.

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Post Post #49  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:39 am

In post 2, Alisae wrote:How is town supposed to win Watchmen Wanted again? Also why is plurality splashed in here for like no reason at all? Like, I like plurality but it seems to be here for no reason lol.

To prevent continuous no lynching to get watcher reports. Make this setup 13p and it's probably okay tbh. Though the mechanic is a bit boring and the backup being randomly chosen is a bit inelegant but I don't have a better and elegant solution that doesn't allow for breaking strategies.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Semi-Nightless? Go play Mountainous games instead.

This setup is fine

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Duck Duck Goose? HEY, YOU KNOW WHAT HEALTHY GAMEPLAY INVOLVES? GIVING TOWN 1 FREE SCUM FLIP. G O O D S E T U P D E S I G N. Fucking brilliant.

It has an 80% mafia winrate so what is your argument here. Adding 2 VTs would probably be ideal for the winrate.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Faith +1. 3 Clears easily, Cop + Doc isn't really a good pairing, and percentage roles aren't fun like how they are currently designed here.

I designed Hope+1 to replace this cause it's just broken by design.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Town should always stomp Nightless Vanilla?

Not always, but generally sure

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Polygamist - I think town only has one mislynch otherwise if they mislynch again they lose.

Add two lover pairs to town.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Diffusion of Power - More Cops, More Docs, Shit Setups.

The winrate on this is pretty good, what is your argument even

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Hard Boiled - atleast give scum a roleblocker, daytalk, and maybe a Rolecop? Otherwise its really townsided.

Force town to choose Tracker (it's gamethrowing to do otherwise), give Mafia a Rolecop. Or, more interestingly, force town to choose Vig and add a VT and keep Mafia as is.

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Hope +1 - play a Cop 13er on MU, its better.

Play Dota 2 it's better

In post 2, Alisae wrote:Pick your poison - No reason to pick outside of the following: IC, {Tracker/Cop}, {The other out of Tracker/Cop OR Vig}

I agree with this one, the power needs to be changed a little, Jailkeeper is way better than the other roles.

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