Open Setup Autopsies (HELP)

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yessiree
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Post Post #75  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:11 pm

In post 70, Mathdino wrote:
MASONS & MONKS2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolf Goons
2 Masons (not Mafia)
2 Monks (not Werewolf)
5-7 Vanilla Townies

- Masons/monks are confirmed to each other as not mafia and werewolves, respectively.
- Masons cannot both be werewolves, and monks cannot both be mafia.

Got a request for this setup, which has a 100% town lossrate on the wiki.

The problem with this setup (within the constrains of multiball) for town is that it can't actually confirm anyone. (Please no snarky comments about how the problem is multiball, I get it)

I wonder if this would be balanced just by converting a townie to an activated innocent child?


how about a hider that chooses pregame between dying on mafia or werewolf

Mathdino
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Post Post #76  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:23 pm

Needlessly screws over one scumteam I think, given that hiders almost universally breadcrumb everything.

Flubbernugget
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Post Post #77  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:02 pm

Two hiders then

BBmolla
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Post Post #78  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:31 pm

Masons and Monks and Paladins, Oh My!

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
9 Vanilla Townies

  • Daystart
  • Two players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • Two players who are not Mafia or Werewolves are randomly selected to be Paladins.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Mafia cannot have both the Monk roles, and Werewolves cannot have both Mason roles.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.

BBmolla
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Post Post #79  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:35 pm

Alternatively

Masons and Monks and Seeking Paladins, Oh My!

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
9 Vanilla Townies

  • Daystart
  • Two players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • Three players who are not Mafia or Werewolves are randomly selected to be Seeking Paladins. This is a masonry who starts not knowing who the other members are. Each night, a Paladin may target another player. If they target someone who is a Paladin, they will join the Paladin PT together and may talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Mafia cannot have both the Monk roles, and Werewolves cannot have both Mason roles.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.


But that has potential to have 5 clears on day 3 if literally everything goes wrong.

mhsmith0
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Post Post #80  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:37 pm

The essential problem with masons and monks in terms of balance is that it's super reliant on cross-kills, since 9/2/2 with no killing or protective roles makes life challenging for town given site meta. Town could lynch correctly the first three days and get:

9/2/2->9/2/1->7/2/1
7/2/1->7/1/1->5/1/1
5/1/1->5/1/0->4/1/0
1 scum left, but day before LYLO

or...
9/2/2->9/2/1->7/2/1
7/2/1->7/2/0->6/2/0
1 scum team fully operational, and the day before MYLO

So even three straight correct lynches could, int eh absence of cross-kills or overlapping kills, net out to being one day before LYLO/MYLO

I'd almost say just check a town vig or doctor into the mix and be done with it *shrugs*
Last edited by mhsmith0 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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BBmolla
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Post Post #81  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:37 pm

Alternatively, the Paladins can just have a cop ability for other Paladins and not actually be able to join together in a PT.

Depends what seems most interesting.

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Post Post #82  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:16 am

Thoughts?

Mathdino
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Post Post #83  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:54 am

Including 2 Paladins is definitely a buff for town. Eliminating one scumteam (via D1 lynch and single crosskill) could potentially result in 4 clears, however, which is a little much.

The nature of multiball is to be swingy. My guess is that due to the possibility of so many clears, this tips the setup into a 50% townwin 25% mafiawin 25% werewolfwin range.

Tactical massclaim just seems debilitating in a way unlike most multiball setups.

I think I roughly agree re: adding a doctor or a town vig.

yessiree
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Post Post #84  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:27 am

meh, maybe we just have to live with a 50% town win 50% anti-town win for multi-balls

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Post Post #85  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:24 pm

yessiree wrote:meh, maybe we just have to live with a 50% town win 50% anti-town win for multi-balls

I mean, there's always been three philosophies of balancing multiball. One, the philosophy that town should win the game half the time. Two, the philosophy that every player, and thus each faction (possibly excluding serial killers), should have an equal chance to win. Three, "...did I just hear that correctly? balanced multiball? is this some weird joke i'm not getting?"

though the third philosophy is the most accurate, it's never been clear which of the first two is better.

Another idea riffing off of bb's setups here that might be interesting is having, say, informed neighborhoods or informed masonries/monkhoods. e.g., "you two players are masons, you both know that the other is not mafia, and you know that player Z is neither mafia nor werewolf."

Mathdino
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Post Post #86  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:53 pm

I admit I'm probably not the best voice on balancing multiball, but I think the model we use is definitely important.

For singleball, I go in with the basic assumption that Friends and Enemies (3 mafia vs 3 masons) is roughly balanced (slightly scumsided just because masons are bad at hiding themselves), and a Cop 13er (3 mafia vs 1 cop) is balanced on MU but scumsided here. Hilariously, Faith Plus One (a Cop 13er with 2 Faith Healers) is actually scumsided in practice here, dunno why.

Regardless, looking over popular multiball setups, it looks like
- Friends and Enemies and Enemies (2 mafia, 2 werewolves, 3 town masons) is balanced by 50:25:25
- Fire and Ice (2 mafia, 2 werewolves, 1 doctor, extra mechanics) is balanced by 33:33:33.

So we can have the goal of "balance around town getting 3 clears" or "balance around the hope that town can prevent enough NKs to win".

I think Masons and Monks and Paladins looks balanced by 50:25:25, and would be interested in seeing that run (albeit uninterested in playing most likely).

yessiree
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Post Post #87  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:46 pm

so what you are saying is that multiball setups can be considered balanced if and only if the EV(Town, scum ball 1, scum ball 2) converges to either 2X:X:X, or X:X:X

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Post Post #88  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:47 pm

EV in practice of course, rather than in theory. Singleball theoretical EV can swing from 40% to 60% yet have completely opposite results in practice.

But yes.

BBmolla
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Post Post #89  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:12 pm

In post 62, BBmolla wrote:
Polygamy For All

14 Players:
4 Mafia Lovers
10 Town Lovers (5 pairs)

  • Daystart
  • After every lynch, mafia choose two of their players to make publicly lynch immune. (So town gets two lynches total)


42.9% town winrate, there, done.

Polygamy For You and Me

16 Players:
4 Mafia Lovers
1 Mafia Double Lover

11 Town Lovers (5 pairs)

  • Daystart
  • Mafia Double Lover is in Love with a Townie as well as all his Mafia buddies.
  • After the first mislynch, the 4 Mafia Lovers become publicly lynch immune.
  • After the second mislynch, if the Mafia Double Lover lives, mafia win.


48% town winrate boom, happy?

yo did I do the math wrong here? I'm getting different numbers now.

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Post Post #90  (ISO)  » Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:39 am

Polygamy for All:

Effectively equivalent to 2:5 with one lynch immune scum on D2. D1 is 2:5, D2 is 1:3.

1 - (5/7 * 3/4) = 46.4% town EV. Not bad, but a bit big.

Polygamy For You and Me

6 lynches end the game for scum on D1, and 2/8 lynches end it on D2.

6/16 + 10/16 * 2/8 = 53.1% town EV. Also not bad, also a bit big :P

They're both balanced setups, but yeah your calculations were a bit low.

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Post Post #91  (ISO)  » Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:48 am

Yeah those were the numbers I got today

Can’t even figure out wtf I did

Mathdino
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Post Post #92  (ISO)  » Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:02 am

On second thought, I actually would argue these setups are scumsided.

The problem with Lovers Mafia and Polygamist is that while they both have 60% town EV on random lynching, lynches are not random, and high volume of scum basically guarantees mislynches.

Polygamy for All is roughly okay, although 4 mafia instead of standard 3 is huge.

Polygamy For You and Me though creates 4 mafia on D2 who can quickhammer (and basically can't do anything else).

They're cool ideas in theory, but I don't think either would solve Polygamist's issues in practice.

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Post Post #93  (ISO)  » Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:44 am

Fun and balanced are two different things as well

It was more of a challenge to see if it was possible to balance

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Post Post #94  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:10 am

Oh boy it's my thread so I can do what I want --

Shameless advertisement for Noir, my not-broken modification to Hard Boiled,
now in sign-ups!

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Post Post #95  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:01 pm

Masons and Monks Deluxe

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
1 Town Doctor Monk
1 Town Vigilante Mason
7 Vanilla Townies


  • Daystart
  • Two vanilla players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two vanilla players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.
  • If neither Mafia is a monk, they gain a factional rolecop.
  • If neither Werewolf is a mason, they gain a factional rolecop.


This is unbalanced one way or the other, how significant of an advantage would one scum team have versus the other? I assume that Mafia has the advantage in theory yes?

Mathdino
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Post Post #96  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:31 pm

Okay this I like.

I don't like Vigilante Mason; gut says it's actually optimal for a Werewolf Mason to just shoot their buddy. Could make it super obvious that they're buddies on D1 "accidentally" in order to cover up this play.

Doctor Monk is really interesting, but you're gonna have to deal with the fact that EV-wise (ignoring actual play) it's always optimal for Doc to protect their buddy until all wolves are dead.

But factional rolecop is the best idea I've heard to reduce the swing of whether or not mafia and wolves rand mason/monk.

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Post Post #97  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:15 pm

Masons and Monks Redux

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
1 Town Doctor
1 Town Vigilante
7 Vanilla Townies


  • Daystart
  • Two vanilla players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two vanilla players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.
  • If neither Mafia is a monk, they gain a factional rolecop.
  • If neither Werewolf is a mason, they gain a factional rolecop.


Maybe simpler is better.

Going a step further though, if Mafia/Werewolves had the option to choose to have either one them as the masons/monks or the factional rolecop, which choice would be better?

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Post Post #98  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:24 pm

I don't think EV really says anything on that considering how many options there are to use either the masonry or the rolecop well. Lots of gambits available if you roll mason with someone as scum in that setup.

The real question then is whether Doc/Vig is too much. Vig claim results in Follow The Vigilante, and both of them are effectively innocent children once claimed.

There's a happy medium between the two, I'm sure.

What if we do Town Angel Monk and Town Doctor Mason? Angel protects against wolf kills, doctor against mafia kills. No vig (adding more swing is probably a bad idea in the current meta :P).

Alternatively, Doctor Monk and Angel Mason. I'm not sure which would be more interesting.

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Post Post #99  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:39 am

Ooh good call.

Meditation

13 Players:
2 Mafia Goons
2 Werewolves
1 Town Angel Monk
1 Town Doctor Mason
7 Vanilla Townies


  • Daystart
  • Two vanilla players who are not Mafia are randomly selected to be Masons.
  • Two vanilla players who are not Werewolves are randomly selected to be Monks.
  • These masonries are allowed to talk together at night.
  • It is possible for a Mafia Goon to be a Monk, and likewise, a Werewolf to be a Mason.
  • Players can not be in multiple masonries.
  • If neither Mafia is a monk, they gain a factional rolecop.
  • If neither Werewolf is a mason, they gain a factional rolecop.


In this way scum have incentive to try to be townie enough to get the town protector to protect them from the other scumteam. With three members in the masonry it discourages just killing the PR because otherwise the other mason will probably out you.

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