Is scum at a disadvantage?

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Is scum at a disadvantage?

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:29 am

Post by AnonymousGhost »

Scum factional kill is a way to trade off killing responsibilities. Town can lynch, scum can night kill.

Day Talk gives scum an advantage to coordinate their actions i.e. quick hammering a mislynch while Night talk gives them the advantage to coordinate who would be best to target with the NK.

What would be their chances if scum didn't have a factional night kill ability and they only have Day Talk?
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:15 am

Post by Mathdino »

No scum NK means the game is effectively nightless. Quickhammer only helps in LyLo.

Speaking strictly in terms of probabilities, the Nightless Rule indicates that 8p 2:6 Nightless is balanced while 9p 2:7 Nightless has a 5/9 expected town winrate.

Nightless weights toward town in that scum can't remove strong obvtown players, but weights toward scum in that lynches aren't actually random and are influenced by the scumteam to be on town.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:05 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

Nightless imo takes far more skill as a scum player
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:15 am

Post by callforjudgement »

Practical statistics show that in Nightless games, town tend to win well above EV. So they do seem to have the advantage when you remove the scum NK.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:17 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

Mafia is a lot harder when you actually have to fool everyone instead of killing the smart people and having their reads be ignored.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:33 am

Post by AnonymousGhost »

My impression that killing someone who threatened you - as scum - actually lends what they say more credibility because they've flipped green.

In a nightless game, playing as mafia just means that you probably have to be a suave smooth talker, without getting the FoS traced back to you. To be fair, if you managed to "mislynch" repeatedly and still look town, you're probably doing something right.

Looking back at the Nightless Rules that indicates a 8p is supposedly an fair win rate for both town and scum, I'm going to guess that throwing PRs into the mix rocks that fair win rate probability.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:34 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I think what nightless really does is reduce variance

the better team wins far more consistently
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:36 am

Post by AnonymousGhost »

Reduce variance how?

Agreed on the 'better team' aspect though.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Ectomancer »

In post 7, AnonymousGhost wrote:Reduce variance how?
As in you don't suddenly lose someone widely regarded as a valuable player to the town.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:15 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

There's no PRs which can fuck over scum playing strong, there's no nightkills to get rid of the people keeping town together
It's literally just a question, at its most pure, of who can towntell and/or push scum wincon the most effectively
keeping in mind that every time you have a partner lynched in non-nightless you have the same amount of mislynches to go. In nightless, you have to get an extra mislynch for every partner lynch.
So being able to effectively push scum wincon matters far more and you have less leverage to reduce the pool of players and take advantage of a few bad town when the town powerhouses are still alive to late game

Individual towns can do a lot more in nightless and individual scum power is a lot more required
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:55 am

Post by kuribo »

In post 5, AnonymousGhost wrote:My impression that killing someone who threatened you - as scum - actually lends what they say more credibility because they've flipped green.

In a nightless game, playing as mafia just means that you probably have to be a suave smooth talker, without getting the FoS traced back to you. To be fair, if you managed to "mislynch" repeatedly and still look town, you're probably doing something right.

Looking back at the Nightless Rules that indicates a 8p is supposedly an fair win rate for both town and scum, I'm going to guess that throwing PRs into the mix rocks that fair win rate probability.

This would be true if people didn't misinterpret the reads of the dead and if they didn't generally ignore the dead.

Kill-divining is a lost art, mired through over a decade of bad play and WIFOM-fears, to the point where scum can usually kill whoever they want without repercussion.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:59 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

In post 10, kuribo wrote:
In post 5, AnonymousGhost wrote:My impression that killing someone who threatened you - as scum - actually lends what they say more credibility because they've flipped green.

In a nightless game, playing as mafia just means that you probably have to be a suave smooth talker, without getting the FoS traced back to you. To be fair, if you managed to "mislynch" repeatedly and still look town, you're probably doing something right.

Looking back at the Nightless Rules that indicates a 8p is supposedly an fair win rate for both town and scum, I'm going to guess that throwing PRs into the mix rocks that fair win rate probability.

This would be true if people didn't misinterpret the reads of the dead and if they didn't generally ignore the dead.

Kill-divining is a lost art, mired through over a decade of bad play and WIFOM-fears, to the point where scum can usually kill whoever they want without repercussion.
The best strategy consistently seems to be, as scum, kill whoever thinks you are scum. No one will suspect you for it. Now you have one less person trying to lynch you.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:23 am

Post by Flubbernugget »

When I play as mafia my team is usually worried about killing who suspects us the most. If most scum players play this way, retaliatory nk's become effective not because nk analysis is a "lost art" but because the direct kill breaks site meta.

The other hand says I've seen players consider nka to be on the same level as setup spec (a dumb opinion fwiw)
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:01 am

Post by AnonymousGhost »

I like how this thread has slowly segued from disadvantages that the scum team could have with a lack of their factional NK ability to the usefulness of NKA.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:16 am

Post by Flubbernugget »

I bet I like it more than you do
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:36 am

Post by kuribo »

It depends on the player. I've flat out killed my own counterclaims.

I used to have a flowchart showing how I decide to NK, but in general it boils down to the attitude I always have regardless of alignment: "I should be allowed to do whatever I want, whenever I want without repercussions from the town."
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:09 am

Post by Alisae »

In post 15, kuribo wrote:"I should be allowed to do whatever I want, whenever I want without repercussions from the town."
basicly how to play scum in a nutshell
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:42 am

Post by kuribo »

The whole idea behind the carnival of lunacy playstyle and the mist playstyle is that both require refuge in audacity.

Basically if you tell yourself that you can talk your way out of anything, you have a better chance of getting another day out of it. Even if you're doomed, another day alive is better than a lynch today.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:43 am

Post by mastina »

In post 11, Magister Ludi wrote:The best strategy consistently seems to be, as scum, kill whoever thinks you are scum. No one will suspect you for it. Now you have one less person trying to lynch you.
Sad, but oh so true. People don't bother to do NKA, those that do often do it wrong, and because of the people who do it wrong those that don't do it will refuse to accept the analysis as valid even when the person doing NKA
didn't
do it wrong.

It's my go-to scum strategy for good reason: boring, but practical; it WORKS.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:46 am

Post by AnonymousGhost »

Thread keeps getting sidetracked. /shrug

It happens.

Thanks for satisfying my curiosity~ :3
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