The Newbie 2d3 stats thread (upd. 2019-05-28, 87g)

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Toomai
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Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:06 pm

Previously, the Matrix6 setup in newbie games had impressively balanced per-faction and per-player winrates despite its later-found mechanical shortcomings. 2d3 is next - let's see how it does.

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding and/or draws.

Spoiler: General/subsetup stats
SetupWinsLossesWinrateGames
A16275.0%8
A28657.1%14
A37277.8%9
B16185.7%7
B27370.0%10
B34357.1%7
C15838.5%13
C27277.8%9
C37370.0%10
A211067.7%31
B17770.8%24
C191359.4%32
Total573065.5%87

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Spoiler: Result stats
Average player types per game: 5.7 Newbies, 2.5 SEs, 0.8 ICs
TypeWinrateTotal
Town Newbies64.6%379
Scum Newbies28.2%117
Total Newbies56.0%496
Town SEs68.4%171
Scum SEs53.3%45
Total SEs65.3%216
Town ICs62.7%59
Scum ICs25.0%12
Total ICs56.3%71
All town65.5%609
All scum34.5%174
All players58.6%783

Image

Spoiler: Replacement stats
Notes: If a slot is replaced twice, that counts as one replaced slot and two replaced players. Therefore, the player rate cannot be any lower than the slot rate. A slot rate of 100% means that all 9 slots were replaced at least once. A player rate of 100% means that 9 players (from any slots) were replaced (so it can exceed 100%). I don't know which type of rate is better to use, though using both is useful (it tells us whether all the replacements came from one slot or were distributed amongst multiple slots). (Reminder: The 2d3 setup has 9 players, hence why 9 appears in the previous.)

On average, games replace 2.5 slots with a standard deviation of 1.43, and 2.8 players with a standard deviation of 1.63.
PlayerSlot replacement ratePlayer replacement rate
Town Newbies30.3%34.5%
Scum Newbies37.8%44.5%
Total Newbies32.1%36.9%
Town SEs19.1%20.2%
Scum SEs42.2%48.9%
Total SEs23.9%26.1%
Town ICs5.0%5.0%
Scum ICs25.0%25.0%
Total ICs8.3%8.3%
All town24.7%27.6%
All scum38.1%44.3%
All players27.7%31.3%

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Spoiler: Power role stats
The rate of each role living to endgame is as follows:
RoleSetupsTown winScum winTotal
CopA1, A3, B1, C150.0% (24 games)7.7% (13 games)35.1% (37 games)
DoctorA2, A3, B3, C365.4% (26 games)0.0% (14 games)42.5% (40 games)
JailkeeperA2, B2, C254.5% (22 games)9.1% (11 games)39.4% (33 games)
TrackerB1, B2, C360.0% (20 games)28.6% (7 games)51.9% (27 games)
NeapolitanA1, B380.0% (10 games)20.0% (5 games)60.0% (15 games)
RoleblockerA1, A2, A34.8% (21 games)70.0% (10 games)25.8% (31 games)
RolecopB1, B2, B30.0% (17 games)71.4% (7 games)20.8% (24 games)

Interesting notes will become available once I notice any, though you can ask for specific ones.

Spoiler: Day 1 stats
  • Town-scum-NL rate: 60-26-1 (random lynching would give 68-19-0; the difference is [-8.81%]-[7.66%]-[1.15%])
  • If town is lynched D1, they go 34-26 (56.7%)
  • If scum is lynched D1, they go 4-22 (15.4%)
  • If there is no lynch D1, town goes 1-0 (100.0%)

Spoiler: Lynch accuracy stats
In the following table, the first three columns are the raw percentages, while the last two are the difference between that and random (positive = more, negative = less). So when town does better than random, it has a negative in lynching town and a positive in lynching scum (random never no-lynches, so the difference is the data).
(I changed how I store this from the Matrix6 stats, hopefully getting rid of a minor issue involving consecutive no-kills.)
RatioTownScumNo lynchTownScum
7:2 (88 samples)68.2%30.7%1.1%-9.6%8.5%
7:1 (4 samples)50.0%50.0%0.0%-37.5%37.5%
6:2 (10 samples)50.0%40.0%10.0%-25.0%15.0%
6:1 (26 samples)53.8%46.2%0.0%-31.9%31.9%
5:2 (51 samples)37.3%58.8%3.9%-34.2%30.3%
5:1 (13 samples)46.2%53.8%0.0%-37.2%37.2%
4:2 (9 samples)44.4%55.6%0.0%-22.2%22.2%
4:1 (36 samples)52.8%47.2%0.0%-27.2%27.2%
3:2 (18 samples)44.4%55.6%0.0%-15.6%15.6%
3:1 (14 samples)57.1%42.9%0.0%-17.9%17.9%
2:1 (23 samples)47.8%47.8%4.3%-18.8%14.5%

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Spoiler: Game length stats
  • No games have ended with Day 1 lynch (only possible via modkills)
  • No games have ended with Night 1 kill (only possible via modkills)
  • Games that end with Day 2 lynch take 15.0 days with standard deviation of 5.40 (15 games)
  • No games have ended with Night 2 kill (only possible via modkills)
  • Games that end with Day 3 lynch take 24.0 days with standard deviation of 8.81 (32 games)
  • Games that end with Night 3 kill take 27.4 days with standard deviation of 6.54 (2 games)
  • Games that end with Day 4 lynch take 29.9 days with standard deviation of 10.98 (35 games)
  • No games have ended with Night 4 kill
  • Games that end with Day 5 lynch take 38.9 days with standard deviation of 3.36 (3 games)
  • One game has ended with Night 5 kill; it took 18.7 days
  • No games have ended with Day 6 lynch
  • No games have ended with Night 6 kill
  • No games have ended with Day 7 lynch
  • Overall, games take 24.5 days with standard deviation of 11.29; the vast majority of games end with a Day 3 or Day 4 lynch (76.14%), with Day 2 and Day 5 lynches being tied for second-most common (20.45%)

Spoiler: Replacement vs. length stats
  • When 0 slots are replaced all game, games take 14.5 days with standard deviation of 2.40 (6 games)
  • When 1 slots are replaced all game, games take 24.7 days with standard deviation of 12.93 (14 games)
  • When 2 slots are replaced all game, games take 22.8 days with standard deviation of 8.79 (29 games)
  • When 3 slots are replaced all game, games take 29.0 days with standard deviation of 10.05 (20 games)
  • When 4 slots are replaced all game, games take 27.0 days with standard deviation of 9.17 (12 games)
  • When 5 slots are replaced all game, games take 36.0 days with standard deviation of 10.09 (5 games)
  • No games have had 6 slots replaced
  • When 7 slots are replaced all game, games take 25.3 days with standard deviation of 12.43 (2 games)
  • No games have had 8 slots replaced
  • No games have had 9 slots replaced
  • When 0 players are replaced all game, games take 14.5 days with standard deviation of 2.40 (6 games)
  • When 1 players are replaced all game, games take 20.3 days with standard deviation of 8.48 (11 games)
  • When 2 players are replaced all game, games take 23.3 days with standard deviation of 9.21 (25 games)
  • When 3 players are replaced all game, games take 29.9 days with standard deviation of 12.98 (17 games)
  • When 4 players are replaced all game, games take 26.9 days with standard deviation of 8.98 (18 games)
  • When 5 players are replaced all game, games take 33.3 days with standard deviation of 11.39 (5 games)
  • When 6 players are replaced all game, games take 31.3 days with standard deviation of 4.27 (4 games)
  • One game replaced 7 players; it took 12.9 days
  • One game replaced 8 players; it took 37.7 days
  • No games have had 9 players replaced

Spoiler: Replacement vs. winrate stats
For slots:
  • When 0 slots are replaced all game, town goes 4-2 (66.7%)
  • When 1 slots are replaced all game, town goes 12-2 (85.7%)
  • When 2 slots are replaced all game, town goes 18-10 (64.3%)
  • When 3 slots are replaced all game, town goes 12-8 (60.0%)
  • When 4 slots are replaced all game, town goes 7-5 (58.3%)
  • When 5 slots are replaced all game, town goes 2-3 (40.0%)
  • No games have had 6 slots replaced
  • When 7 slots are replaced all game, town goes 2-0 (100.0%)
  • No games have had 8 slots replaced
  • No games have had 9 slots replaced
Image
For players:
  • When 0 players are replaced all game, town goes 4-2 (66.7%)
  • When 1 players are replaced all game, town goes 9-2 (81.8%)
  • When 2 players are replaced all game, town goes 16-8 (66.7%)
  • When 3 players are replaced all game, town goes 13-4 (76.5%)
  • When 4 players are replaced all game, town goes 10-8 (55.6%)
  • When 5 players are replaced all game, town goes 1-4 (20.0%)
  • When 6 players are replaced all game, town goes 2-2 (50.0%)
  • When 7 players are replaced all game, town goes 1-0 (100.0%)
  • When 8 players are replaced all game, town goes 1-0 (100.0%)
  • No games have had 9 players replaced
Image

Spoiler: Replacement vs. role stats
RoleSlotsSlots replacedPlayers replaced
Vanilla Townie46314.9%26.1%
Cop3818.4%18.4%
Doctor4122.0%22.0%
Jailkeeper3221.9%21.9%
Tracker2711.1%11.1%
Neapolitan1533.3%33.3%
Mafia Goon12033.3%40.0%
Roleblocker3231.3%31.3%
Rolecop2437.5%37.5%
The following is a z-score graph. 0 means "is exactly average". 1 means "is 1 standard deviation above average"; -1 means "is 1 standard deviation below average". In other words, high bars mean "more replaces", while low mean "less replaces".
Image

Spoiler: Team type stats
TownvsScum
NbSEICNbSEICTown winrateGames
331200100.0%6
42111020.0%10
43010150.0%2
5110200.0%2
5200110.0%2
42120073.9%23
51111068.8%16
520101100.0%6
60102050.0%2
610011100.0%2
340200100.0%2
430110100.0%2
520020-0
43020071.4%7
52011040.0%5
610020-0
5Nb-3SE-1IC40.9%22
6Nb-2SE-1IC75.5%49
5Nb-4SE-0IC100.0%4
6Nb-3SE-0IC58.3%12

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Notes
  • For any stat that counts wins and losses, draws are ignored.
  • The replacement stats recorded here are likely lower than in reality, as replacements are not recorded if the player never confirmed, or the player was force-replaced due to a mod error or something similar that was not the replaced player's fault. If a player posts in any way (or has been acknowledged by the mod as having confirmed/read their role PM), or gets themselves force-replaced (such as getting banned), replacing them counts.
    • The general rule is: a replacement counts if it's the player's fault (intent is irrelevant); a replacement doesn't count if it's the fault of someone else.
    • The idea is so the replacement stats are more of a "players who quit the game" than a "players who need to be replaced".
  • Slot-based stats might be a bit off due to cases where slots "level up" via replacement (e.g. an experienced player replaces into a newbie slot).
  • Players are assumed to have won regardless of modkills (unnecessary complication). They are however still dead. So far there have been no complications involving multiple scum/PRs dying in the same phase.
  • If the last scum concedes, it's recorded as a lynch on them. If both scum are alive when they concede, it's recorded as no lynch; the game simply ends in a town win with both scum alive. (This is how a mafia PR might still be alive at endgame in a town win.)
  • Only notable and requested PR stats are listed. Ask for one to get it added.

For more comprehensive graphs, please see the original spreadsheet (.xlsx, 900+KB).

If you'd like to know something that isn't here, I'll see what I can do.
Last edited by Toomai on Tue May 28, 2019 6:04 pm, edited 10 times in total.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

PenguinPower
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Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:35 pm

Thanks, Toomai.
<(") | (")>

mhsmith0
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Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:46 pm

fwiw I'm actually quite surprised that the column A setups have the highest town win rates so far, as I'd very much expect it to be B over the long term (and then I'd GUESS that C has lowest town win rates though I could well be wrong).
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Toomai
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Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:43 pm

Apparently Newbie 1859 was given up by scum while they were both still alive. For now I'll just say the game ended Day 2 with no lynch and let the stats sort themselves out.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

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Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:07 pm

They both claimed tracker and didn't realize their mistake
The game would've ended on d3 with double scum lynch

tn5421
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Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Mon May 07, 2018 5:43 am

Can't wait to see some more information about this setup. This is a thinly veiled egopost.
Recovering rageposter.

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Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Mon May 07, 2018 8:53 am

The one scumwin in B1 had some other factors, that town helped to loose that one.
Is perhaps not really representive. (No Insult meaned to Spartan and RC who played a good scumgame)

RadiantCowbells
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Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Mon May 07, 2018 10:35 am

Thing is we had the plan then my replacement made the plan not happen

We definitely should have had that win, it was mapped out from D1
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Toomai
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Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:45 am

I would have to say that, while only 12 completed games in and thus not yet worthy of action, the new deadline rules do not look promising so far for game balance.

Image

(shorthand: [days for D1] : [days for D2+] - [hours for N])
Last edited by Toomai on Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

shortaru
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Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:57 am

Perhaps keeping 10:7 and changing 30 to 42 in order to provide scum some extra strategizing/check-in time?
Does this post forward a scum win con, or do you just think I'm strange?

Strange != Scum

shortaru
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Post Post #10  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:09 am

In post 2, mhsmith0 wrote:fwiw I'm actually quite surprised that the column A setups have the highest town win rates so far, as I'd very much expect it to be B over the long term (and then I'd GUESS that C has lowest town win rates though I could well be wrong).

C2 has a bafflingly high town win rate.
Does this post forward a scum win con, or do you just think I'm strange?

Strange != Scum

Not Known 15
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Post Post #11  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:38 am

In post 10, shortaru wrote:
In post 2, mhsmith0 wrote:fwiw I'm actually quite surprised that the column A setups have the highest town win rates so far, as I'd very much expect it to be B over the long term (and then I'd GUESS that C has lowest town win rates though I could well be wrong).

C2 has a bafflingly high town win rate.

Well, the town win rate itself is over the roof. This is because faster games might be significantly more townsided.

shortaru
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Post Post #12  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:48 am

In post 11, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 10, shortaru wrote:
In post 2, mhsmith0 wrote:fwiw I'm actually quite surprised that the column A setups have the highest town win rates so far, as I'd very much expect it to be B over the long term (and then I'd GUESS that C has lowest town win rates though I could well be wrong).

C2 has a bafflingly high town win rate.

Well, the town win rate itself is over the roof. This is because faster games might be significantly more townsided.

I kinda doubt that, personally.

Mafia in person/app is a hell of a lot faster, and town manages to lose pretty regularly.
Does this post forward a scum win con, or do you just think I'm strange?

Strange != Scum

Not Known 15
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Post Post #13  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:20 pm

In post 12, shortaru wrote:I kinda doubt that, personally.

Mafia in person/app is a hell of a lot faster, and town manages to lose pretty regularly.

Fair point, but that doesn't mean that the faster deadlines aren't townsided... it doesn't have to be a linear progression.
I think these deadlines are probably more townsided than the longer deadlines...

To the topic of replacements: The SE replacement rate is way too high.

shortaru
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Post Post #14  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:24 pm

In post 13, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 12, shortaru wrote:I kinda doubt that, personally.

Mafia in person/app is a hell of a lot faster, and town manages to lose pretty regularly.

Fair point, but that doesn't mean that the faster deadlines aren't townsided... it doesn't have to be a linear progression.
I think these deadlines are probably more townsided than the longer deadlines...

To the topic of replacements: The SE replacement rate is way too high.


One way to test your theory would be to run a serious of Matrix 6 games with the shorter deadlines in the Normal queue and forbid the Tracker D1 claim (outside of regular L-1 claim).

Personally, I suspect 2d3 isn't the panacea it's perceived to be.
Does this post forward a scum win con, or do you just think I'm strange?

Strange != Scum

Not Known 15
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Post Post #15  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:40 pm

In post 14, shortaru wrote:Personally, I suspect 2d3 isn't the panacea it's perceived to be.

Yes, and I suspected that... Lots of setups that are broken by massclaim D2/ have too much confirmation(all Neapolitan setups, tracker+Doctor, tracker+Cop...)
and the Mafia Rolecop is next to useless, especially with Nea+Doc.
I would actually support going to... maybe Backup6 instead...

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Post Post #16  (ISO)  » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:56 pm

In post 0, Toomai wrote:Town SEs 23.1% 25.3%
Scum SEs 46.2% 50.0%
Total SEs 28.2% 30.8%

Town ICs 7.9% 7.9%
Scum ICs 30.0% 30.0%
Total ICs 12.5% 12.5%


Any ideas why the SE replacement stats higher than the IC stats? I wouldn't have thought there'd be such a big divide, especially when looking at the Totals.
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Post Post #17  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:20 pm

ICs sign up with the responsibility to teach and guide the newbies throughout the game while SEs have no obligation to do so when they do so.

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Post Post #18  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:29 pm

Yes, I'm aware the difference in responsibilities, or lack thereof.

What I'm wondering is if anything other than that obligation is influencing the higher replacement rate. I checked the Matrix6 stat's thread and it had a similar pattern of a higher total of SE replace-outs compared to the total replace-outs of ICs.
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Post Post #19  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:31 pm

If you know how to crunch data then I guess you could see if the people who sign up to be ICs also have similarly low replacement rates when playing as SEs to isolate the problem.

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Post Post #20  (ISO)  » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:37 pm

While it's more of a possible correlation than anything remotely concrete, I'm curious if the higher SE replace out total has a significant impact on a game's outcome for whatever side they were aligned with.

An IC, obviously, has a larger impact than an SE would because they're a teacher, but that doesn't mean that the newbies won't learn by example - which is my impression of what the SEs are supposed to be (an example of "good" play - don't lurk, don't be unnecessarily abrasive, etc.) - via the SEs' presence.

Pedit: No, I don't know how to crunch data, so I can't help in that manner sadly. :(
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Post Post #21  (ISO)  » Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:47 am

I think it has a lot to do with feeling responsible for the newbies and not wanting to lose IC privileges for frivolous replace outs. I think people when people with more than 5 games sign up to play a game in the newbie queue, they look at whether they want that kind of responsibility in the next monthish of their life or not: are they going to have time? are they going to be able to live up to the responsibility? or are they looking for a more casual experience where it doesn't matter too much if something comes up?

I think the mindset going into the game changes whether somebody is going to stick with it or not.
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2 718281828459
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Post Post #22  (ISO)  » Sat Oct 27, 2018 5:22 pm

I saw some 1's and think that I was in some of those games. (The one where town lost from a 6v1, and the one where the IC replaced as town. Those were actually both the same game.)

Who no-lynched on 2v1?
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Post Post #23  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:55 am

In post 22, 2 718281828459 wrote:I saw some 1's and think that I was in some of those games. (The one where town lost from a 6v1, and the one where the IC replaced as town. Those were actually both the same game.)

Who no-lynched on 2v1?

1853.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

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Post Post #24  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:25 pm

basically the lylo decider got sick irl and didnt declare a v/la on time to get replaced so they just

didnt vote

i think either side could have realistically won but the ending was kind of a downer since town had just turned around a shitty situation in lylo
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