The Newbie 2d3 stats thread (upd. 2019-05-28, 87g)

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Zachrulez
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Post Post #100  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 1:23 pm

In post 99, Ircher wrote:But hasn't daytalk reduced the number of scum newbie replacements? I remember that being a thing back when Mina did the daytalk trial in the Newbie Queue.

Sure, maybe it is not 100% needed, but it is so desirable that to exclude it would truly be a huge shame.


I took a quick look at the data on this setup vs the data from a matrix newbie setup I found from 2014. Replacement rates look to be a bit lower across the board. I'm not sure if single point movement in replacements is statistically significant. (There are going to be fluctuations and then there's the question of what caused them.)

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Post Post #101  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 5:01 pm

In post 98, Zachrulez wrote:Daytalk is definitely not required for a smooth and enjoyable game experience. Need to be careful not to confuse between being 'desirable' and 'needed'
Sure--it's not required.

But it makes it happen more often and more consistently.

You can have a smooth/enjoyable game experience without daytalk.

You're more likely to have a smooth/enjoyable game experience with daytalk.

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Post Post #102  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 6:22 pm

Update complete, Dropbox issue subdued (whatever it was), hopefully can pay more attention to it in the future.

I think this is the most telling stat so far:
Image

Excluding day 1 (well, excluding all 7:2 lynches), half of all lynches are on scum (51.0%). Even including D1 makes this 44.9%. For Matrix6 newbie games, it was only a third (32.7%).
Spoiler: Matrix6 graph
Image
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

implosion
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Post Post #103  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 6:32 pm

Consider, however, what happens when you look exclusively at day 1; with a still decently solid sample size, 31% of lynches now are on mafia, compared to 20% before. Can this be easily explained with only setup differences? (To be clear, this may be a real question if there are very widespread d1 claim strats, I don't know as I haven't played newbies recently). If not then the differences as a whole are likely also not explained only by setup differences, and may have to do with changing meta in some way.

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Post Post #104  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 8:10 pm

No, the day1 scumlynches aren't the result of a claiming strategy
It feels like towns have been getting better in Newbie games
and I think this data confirms that
the question now is do we want a Newbie setup that is s more favorable to scum to counteract a site meta of skilled town?

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Post Post #105  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 8:22 pm

In post 104, TTTT wrote:It feels like towns have been getting better in Newbie games

.... or scum has been getting worse.

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Post Post #106  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 8:24 pm

Either way (though I agree with TTTT), looking at boosting scum a bit may be warranted.
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u r a person 2
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Post Post #107  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 8:50 pm

if TTTT took a break from newbie queue, scum win rates would jump 10% at least, and he never rolls scum =/
guy needs a title like "newb-hunter" but more clever
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Post Post #108  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 9:03 pm

In post 107, u r a person 2 wrote:if TTTT took a break from newbie queue, scum win rates would jump 10% at least, and he never rolls scum =/
guy needs a title like "newb-hunter" but more clever
(love ya buddy)

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Post Post #109  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 9:05 pm

Okay I think I've changed my mind for most telling stat; this one is significantly more specific (if a bit less in sample size).
Image
(X:Y-Z = X-day D1, Y-day D2+, Z-hour prods)

The shorter deadlines have wrecked scum. (p=0.0703)
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

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Post Post #110  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 10:22 pm

In post 107, u r a person 2 wrote:guy needs a title like "newb-hunter" but more clever
Obligatory reminder there's a thread for that.

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Post Post #111  (ISO)  » Tue May 28, 2019 11:46 pm

In post 101, mastina wrote:
In post 98, Zachrulez wrote:Daytalk is definitely not required for a smooth and enjoyable game experience. Need to be careful not to confuse between being 'desirable' and 'needed'
Sure--it's not required.

But it makes it happen more often and more consistently.

You can have a smooth/enjoyable game experience without daytalk.

You're more likely to have a smooth/enjoyable game experience with daytalk.


My experience was pretty even both ways honestly.

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Post Post #112  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 6:02 am

In post 109, Toomai wrote:Okay I think I've changed my mind for most telling stat; this one is significantly more specific (if a bit less in sample size).
Image
(X:Y-Z = X-day D1, Y-day D2+, Z-hour prods)

The shorter deadlines have wrecked scum. (p=0.0703)

Ah, yes.
That makes perfectly sense(and it is actually something I warned about before...).

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Post Post #113  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 9:31 am

Yeah the deadline thing makes a lot of sense. Part of some scum wins in the newbie forum is apathy and time for newbscum to gain their footing. The shorter deadlines have cut back on both (potentially a good thing in the case of the former, potentially a bad thing in the case of the latter)

I think Creature's complaint in a recent newbie is also a valid one on behalf of scum

If we're okay with doing things we wouldn't do elsewhere on the site to maximize the amount of fun newbies have, I'm kinda okay with a townsided setup - makes for more newb winners per game.

But some setups do feel less like mafia and more like a semi-broken PR puzzle, which is antithetical to MafiaScum's emphasis on dayplay and should probably be fixed
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

You should check out Monthly Setup Challenges!

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Post Post #114  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 9:42 am

Someone suggested my recent Choose Your Own Adventure semi-open could be a newbie setup. I'm not sure, but I thought I'd share it here anyway in case it can somehow add to this discussion in a helpful way.

I think this setup might be lightly townsided (to balance for MS's oft-scumsided dayplay meta), but here it is anyway:

In post 53, Irrelephant11 wrote:Real submission

choose your own adventure7v2

Pre-game, or maybe during a short pregame discussion phase (undecided on this), each player privately submits the letter I, P, or V. Based on the number of each letter, the setup is determined. If there are an odd number of I or P submissions, one of that letter becomes a V.

(I)nformative
0 I’s: Named townie
2: Parity Neapolitan (receives results in the form “Result A” and “Result B”. Each corresponds to “is vanilla townie” or “is not vanilla townie”, but the neap doesn’t know which is which)
4: 1-shot cop
6: Cop
8: Jailkeeper


(P)rotective:
0: 1-shot bulletproof
2: Bodyguard
4: 1-shot jailkeeper
6: Doctor
8: Jailkeeper


(V)anilla:
9: 2 loud goons
7: Loud goon and goon
5: 2 goons
3: 1-shot mafia Rolecop and goon
1: 1-shot mafia strongman and goon


So each of the 15 possible setups should look like
“Informative town role”
“Protective town role”
5 vts

2 mafia of some kind

Town power roles are always assigned to a townie who submitted an “I” or “P”, if possible (in this way, townies who like rolling vt can nearly guarantee it, and those who like being a PR can increase their chances).
Similarly, if one scum gives a V and the other doesn’t, the less powerful role (if applicable) will be given to the scum who submitted a V.

Scum have daychat and are multitasking.

In post 58, Irrelephant11 wrote:
Spoiler: possible setups
Named townie
1-shot bulletproof
5 vts
2 loud goons

Parity neapolitan
1-shot bulletproof
5 vts
Loud goon & goon

1-shot cop
1-shot bulletproof
5 vts
2 goons

Cop
1-shot bulletproof
5 vts
1-shot rolecop & goon

Jailkeeper
1-shot bulletproof
5 vts
1-shot strongman & goon

Named townie
Town bodyguard
5 vts
Loud goon & goon

Parity Neapolitan
Town bodyguard
5 vts
2 goons

1-shot cop
Town bodyguard
5 vts
1-shot rolecop & goon

Cop
Town bodyguard
5 vts
1-shot strongman & goon

Named townie
1-shot jailkeeper
5 vts
2 goons

Parity Neapolitan
1-shot jailkeeper
5 vts
1-shot rolecop & goon

1-shot cop
1-shot jailkeeper
5 vts
1-shot strongman & goon

Named townie
Doctor
5 vts
1-shot rolecop & goon

Parity Neapolitan
Doctor
5 vts
1-shot strongman & goon

Named townie
Jailkeeper
5 vts
1-shot strongman & goon
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

You should check out Monthly Setup Challenges!

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Post Post #115  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 9:54 am

that's a really cool setup. Let me know if you run it as a micro.
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Post Post #116  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 10:43 am

Immediate problem that comes to mind is that a lot of the game's discussion is inevitably going to get around "who chose what letter" and if you think about it in terms of a game that's supposed to help newer people get into the game that doesn't sound like a good idea. Perhaps a generation of sorts would solve the problem?

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Post Post #117  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 10:52 am

That's a good setup but I don't think it's suited for a newbie setup
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Post Post #118  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 11:23 am

Oh I agree that if the setup I just posted is used in anyway it would have to be overhauled for newbie friendliness (remove the letter picking in favor of random generation, make the scum 1-shots factional, etc).

Are there any open setups that aren't semi-opens that could just *be* the newbie setup? Something like a micro Watchers Wanted or Marked for Death?
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

You should check out Monthly Setup Challenges!

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Post Post #119  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 11:37 am

The answer to the question of "what should the newbie setup be" REALLY depends on "WHAT is the purpose of the newbie queue?"

You gotta ask the right questions.
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Post Post #120  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 11:40 am

Hey guys I have a question

WHAT is the purpose of the newbie queue?
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

You should check out Monthly Setup Challenges!

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Post Post #121  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 11:46 am

Irrelephant11 wrote:Hey guys I have a question

WHAT is the purpose of the newbie queue?


- Introduce players to forum mafia - more specifically introduce them to how mafia is played on our site
- Create an experience that leads to them returning for more games, eventually branching out to other queues/areas of the site and retaining them long term.
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Post Post #122  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 1:07 pm

In post 121, PenguinPower wrote:retaining them long term.
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Post Post #123  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 1:24 pm

Stacking the setup in favor of town achieves "eventually branching out to other queues/areas" but not "retaining them long term". If we're giving out majority wins because some players only have fun when they win, they will be the sort to replace out of games they are losing, leading to full site flake or, worse, not leaving the site and replacing out all the time.
Keeping powerful roles like sane cop in the newbie setup isn't a good strategy either. I just got out of Krazy's large theme and it was super wacky and yada yada but there was 1 three shot investigative in a large theme with only one of the abilities as strong as sane cop, and that is in a large. So running 9 player games with an ungated cop is not actually representative of site play even if these players are going to move onto our stuff on the role-madnessier end of the spectrum. The simplicity of these setups works against them, we can't have millers because it's not a closed game and the miller would become named, so as a result we are literally putting a role in the game where every game after that the player is never going to experience a role as powerful as that. And it's supposed to be representative for discerning which players are going to fit well here long term?
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Post Post #124  (ISO)  » Wed May 29, 2019 1:38 pm


I think this ^ (making scum abilities factional rather than assigning them to a slot) would be a good simple change if we're looking to keep things relatively similar to the way they are but help scum out a bit.
--> You could alternatively add a rule like "all power roles stop working after night 2" because scum PRs on night 3+ are usually too little too late to be helpful and town PRs past N2 are often gamebreaking in town's favor

If we're looking to really overhaul the setup somewhat to represent how MS likes diffused/complex town and scum power (because swinginess and follow the cop are bad), then I think it could be interesting to, say, make next month's setup challenge a "design a new newbie" challenge and see if that gets us anywhere helpful.
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

You should check out Monthly Setup Challenges!

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