The Newbie 2d3 stats thread (upd. 2019-02-07, 68g)

This forum is for discussion related to the game.
NotAJumbleOfNumbers
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: April 30, 2018
Location: am i supposed to take this seriously
Pronoun: They

Post Post #25  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:58 pm

I’d like to know the win rate of certain scumteam pairings (newbie/newbie, newbie/SE, newbie/IC, SE/SE, SE/IC).
Preferred abbreviation: Jumble
current status: feeling like holding my phone diagonally

mastina
Memorable Event
 
User avatar
Joined: October 08, 2016
Location: Between Snohomish and Monroe, WA
Pronoun: She

Post Post #26  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:35 pm

In post 25, NotAJumbleOfNumbers wrote:I’d like to know the win rate of certain scumteam pairings (newbie/newbie, newbie/SE, newbie/IC, SE/SE, SE/IC).
I know for a FACT that this was calculated at some point...

...For a prior newbie setup. So, I don't think we have those stats now, but for at least one newbie setup, we do. (Well, did.)
Avatar by Aristophanes.

Title Fairy Feedback
April Event: Entitlement is ongoing!

Toomai
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: January 12, 2013
Location: Ontario
Pronoun: He

Post Post #27  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:37 am

In post 25, NotAJumbleOfNumbers wrote:I’d like to know the win rate of certain scumteam pairings (newbie/newbie, newbie/SE, newbie/IC, SE/SE, SE/IC).

This is available on the "Result-Team Stats" sheet of the Excel workbook. I'll add it to the first post the next time I update it. (Which I'd like to be today but things happen.)
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

Toomai
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: January 12, 2013
Location: Ontario
Pronoun: He

Post Post #28  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:01 pm

After a fair amount of technical difficulties on my end, I have an update.

And it's not good: after 68 games, town winrate is 63.2%. That's a lot closer to "scum only wins a third of the time" than "both teams have a 50/50 shot". Concurrently, scum newbies have a paltry 29.9% winrate (though this is probably just because newbies are the most common playertype, rather than newbies being that much worse).

And this is even worse: Most games recently are of the form [6 newbies, 2 SEs, 1 IC], and town flat-out dominates them to the tune of 73.9%. (This is new in the first post under "Team type stats".) Having the 6 newbies makes it that much more likely to get a scumteam of 2 newbies, and they appear to git rekt most of the time. Matrix6 had a similar pattern but it wasn't nearly as extreme (the winrate difference between 5-3-1 and 6-2-1 was only 10.6%).

It's still early; 68 games doesn't leave a lot of room for the 9 subsetups to stabilize. But it's worrying.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

OkaPoka
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: March 28, 2014
Pronoun: He

Post Post #29  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:17 pm

i dont know statistics but is the fact that b column has a ~10% higher wr for town significant enough to need change

Toomai
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: January 12, 2013
Location: Ontario
Pronoun: He

Post Post #30  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:25 pm

In post 29, OkaPoka wrote:i dont know statistics but is the fact that b column has a ~10% higher wr for town significant enough to need change

Yeah it's ~10% but look at the raw numbers for A vs B: 14/23 versus 16/23, a two-game swing. Not significant.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

PenguinPower
Pongwin
 
User avatar
Joined: June 15, 2016
Pronoun: He

Post Post #31  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:58 pm

I'm actually pleased with ~60% town winrate. Hopefully with the IC role removal, we'll be able to vary the Newbie/SE rate more. My goal is newer player retention, and I think this helps.
<(") | (")>

mhsmith0
Balancing Act
 
User avatar
Joined: March 07, 2016
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Pronoun: He

Post Post #32  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:09 am

In post 29, OkaPoka wrote:i dont know statistics but is the fact that b column has a ~10% higher wr for town significant enough to need change

I remember thinking there was a real chance the rolecop just wasn’t strong enough for scum :(
Probably we should think about something altogether different?
Does anyone have thoughts on something like semi nightless, running like a 7/2 format of it (9/2 seems townsided based on limited sample size)?
It’s definitely different from standard approach, but maybe it’d be GOOD to have more vanilla-y stuff that heavily emphasized dayplay and de emphasizes nightplay?
Show

mhsmith0
Balancing Act
 
User avatar
Joined: March 07, 2016
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Pronoun: He

Post Post #33  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:13 am

In post 28, Toomai wrote:Having the 6 newbies makes it that much more likely to get a scumteam of 2 newbies, and they appear to git rekt most of the time.

This part in particular is VERY worrying. Retention will be hurt if all of the all newbscum teams get clobbered, and I think it’s SUGGESTIVE that more experienced players are particularly effective in terms of gaming the system, to a greater degree than was the case in matrix6.
Show

RadiantCowbells
Smooth Criminal
 
User avatar
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He

Post Post #34  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:51 am

In post 31, PenguinPower wrote:I'm actually pleased with ~60% town winrate. Hopefully with the IC role removal, we'll be able to vary the Newbie/SE rate more. My goal is newer player retention, and I think this helps.


I think 60% winrate is a bad way of looking at it

Rather look at it as a series of setups at least one of which had obscenely low scum winrates
If you're Macho and someone tries to rolestop you, you never realise you're being targeted for a kill, so your machismo never gets challenged

RadiantCowbells
Smooth Criminal
 
User avatar
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He

Post Post #35  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:54 am

In post 33, mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 28, Toomai wrote:Having the 6 newbies makes it that much more likely to get a scumteam of 2 newbies, and they appear to git rekt most of the time.

This part in particular is VERY worrying. Retention will be hurt if all of the all newbscum teams get clobbered, and I think it’s SUGGESTIVE that more experienced players are particularly effective in terms of gaming the system, to a greater degree than was the case in matrix6.


Some setups are imo basically unplayable as wolf without some degree of setup specific knowledge of how to approach the game
If you're Macho and someone tries to rolestop you, you never realise you're being targeted for a kill, so your machismo never gets challenged

Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
 
Joined: September 15, 2017

Post Post #36  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:13 am

In post 35, RadiantCowbells wrote:Some setups are imo basically unplayable as wolf without some degree of setup specific knowledge of how to approach the game

Yeah. Especially the Neapolitan setups can have a near- locked in town win Day 2 after a VT mis(!)lynch and a VT kill. A wrong move(such as claiming VT, the easiest way) can result in an unavoidable loss.
Specifically the Rolecop+Doctor+Neapolitan setup can be really horrible and is probably not even close to balanced due to the Day 2 Neapolitan claim strategy.

Here is the setup I propose:
New Newbie Setup(my variant):
2 Mafia, 1-2 Town Power roles, 5-6 Vanilla Townies
ABC
Mafia2x Mafia GoonMafia(Multitasking) Roleblocker and Mafia 1-shot Strongman2x Mafia Odd-night Bulletproof
Row 1Town Loyal CopTown Loyal Cop and Town JailkeeperTown Loyal Cop
Row 2Town JailkeeperTown Loyal Cop and Town Universal BackupTown Vigilante and Town Universal Backup
Row 32x Town MasonTown Universal Backup and Town VigilanteTown Jailkeeper

The specifics:
Column A and C have no mafia-specific knowledge necessary
Column B does not need very much specific knowledge. The only weakness here is Row 1, but at least it is impossible to mechanically clear all of the townies.
Last edited by Not Known 15 on Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

BulletNLynchproof
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: September 16, 2015
Location: EDT+12
Pronoun: He

Post Post #37  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:26 am

Would it be too much pressure on the mods if Newbies become closed, but with a much smaller role pool than Normals?
GTKAS - BNL (Updated, check it out!)

Gameshow Mafia is in Day 1. PM me to join my replacement queue! 2 replacements needed.

Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
 
Joined: September 15, 2017

Post Post #38  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:35 am

In post 37, BulletNLynchproof wrote:Would it be too much pressure on the mods if Newbies become closed, but with a much smaller role pool than Normals?

There is barely enough review power for Normals. And it happens that Normals get a not so balanced setup passed. The main problem is that you want to have quick and limited games for newbies - 9p maximum - and those aren't balanced as Mountainous.

mhsmith0
Balancing Act
 
User avatar
Joined: March 07, 2016
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Pronoun: He

Post Post #39  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:50 am

@BNL: I agree with NK15, also there's going to be a lot more unbalance in a closed type of system, just because ppl have different standards and it's near impossible to perfectly balance stuff over long term. It adds complication that I don't think really adds value.
@NK15: allowing vigs in newbie games is a bad idea. Vig games, more than any other setup, become heavily focused on the competence of the vig player, so there's more pressure and more potential for salt fests postgame. Moreover, it opens up the chance for a scum win d2 which is overly early.
Show

Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
 
Joined: September 15, 2017

Post Post #40  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:20 pm

In post 39, mhsmith0 wrote:@BNL: I agree with NK15, also there's going to be a lot more unbalance in a closed type of system, just because ppl have different standards and it's near impossible to perfectly balance stuff over long term. It adds complication that I don't think really adds value.
@NK15: allowing vigs in newbie games is a bad idea. Vig games, more than any other setup, become heavily focused on the competence of the vig player, so there's more pressure and more potential for salt fests postgame. Moreover, it opens up the chance for a scum win d2 which is overly early.

You raise a good point(although the ON BP would end N2 at earliest). I will think on how to fix that! And I think I'll use a PM to the Newbie listmod for that...
Last edited by Not Known 15 on Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mhsmith0
Balancing Act
 
User avatar
Joined: March 07, 2016
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Pronoun: He

Post Post #41  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:32 pm

The easiest way to fix the problems with vigs in newbie setups is to avoid having vigs in newbie setups :P

The essential problem with 2d3 is that high power level type setups are swingy, difficult to balance, and particularly prone towards giving higher win rates to people familiar with the system who know its fault lines and can take advantage, and lower win rates to newbies who don't know what they're doing (the more easily fixable problem is that scum are underpowered on column B, which is pretty fixable by tweaking the power levels, like turning rolecop into a JOAT of some sort [or maybe odd night roleblocker?], or turning the other goon into a 1-shot novice roleblocker, etc).

The main question is whether that's the kind of problem that ought to lead to a different design entirely, or whether that's the sort of problem that is fixable by more minor tweaking (tweaking scum power levels on column B is the simplest fix on a concept basis.

My intuitive recommendation would be to step back, see how win rates change due to removing ICs, and taking that into account when making any changes in the future.
Show

Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
 
Joined: September 15, 2017

Post Post #42  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:26 pm

In post 41, mhsmith0 wrote:The easiest way to fix the problems with vigs in newbie setups is to avoid having vigs in newbie setups :P

The essential problem with 2d3 is that high power level type setups are swingy, difficult to balance, and particularly prone towards giving higher win rates to people familiar with the system who know its fault lines and can take advantage, and lower win rates to newbies who don't know what they're doing (the more easily fixable problem is that scum are underpowered on column B, which is pretty fixable by tweaking the power levels, like turning rolecop into a JOAT of some sort [or maybe odd night roleblocker?], or turning the other goon into a 1-shot novice roleblocker, etc).

The main question is whether that's the kind of problem that ought to lead to a different design entirely, or whether that's the sort of problem that is fixable by more minor tweaking (tweaking scum power levels on column B is the simplest fix on a concept basis.

My intuitive recommendation would be to step back, see how win rates change due to removing ICs, and taking that into account when making any changes in the future.

Yeah that with the vigs is right - although it means newbies are going to miss the experience to have a town-aligned killer in the game.

I think I have identified the four core problems in these setups.
Problem 1:Too much investigative powers(Cop+Neapolitan) - these setups are extremely swingy and have too much investigative power - the value of VT reads diminishes dramatically; also problem 3 applies)
Problem 2:Nearly useless Mafia role for short setups(Mafia rolecop setups) - most of the time, the damage is already done Day 2.
Problem 3:The Doctor can lead to really swingy setups where Mafia is extremely punished for not getting the Town power roles Night 1 after a mislynch - that's not good.
The Main Problem: All together - Breaking strategies:
Neapolitan claim Day 2 when the other power role is alive:Can lead to forced counterclaims with lopsided town win chances, or outright losses if the scumteam is new and makes a mistake.

Result:
The Doctor should not be paired with a powerful role unchecked. This is asking for trouble, and makes the setups swingy and unfun. Remove the Doctor from all setups without a roleblocker. The presence of a Doctor without a counter or other mitigation is becoming rare in Mafia games. Very rare. Even the Doctor is becoming rare. The newbie setup should reflect this. Throw it out.
The Rolecop does not make sense in setups that aren't full of town power. Throw it out or pair it with sensible things that need investigation beyond Night 1.
Not more than one investigative town in 9 player setups. They can lead to extremely unfun play with zero real scumhunting. Put them into the trash bin.
Now this means:
Column C
1 - fine
2 - fine
3 - not good(doctor+invest+2 goons) - if the invest claims they can't get killed before the doctor
Column B
1 - Too much investigative power - and inadequate Rolecop.
2 - It's looks ok... since the Jailkeeper blocks the tracker when defending. But it can lead to game over scenarios Day 2. One guilty and a VT death at night and it's over. A bit too much reliance on Night results.
3 - Horrible. Needs to go. Mislynch Day 1 and no power role kill Night 1... and everything looks grim for Mafia - most of the time. - for more see Column A 1
Column A
1- This setup made me - a SE - salty. The investigative power of the town is through the roof. Town mislynches Day 1 happen frequently. Mafia missing town power roles Night 1, too. The difference? The one paired with the another lead to potentially catastrophic results Day 2 for Mafia more often than not here. Horrible. Needs to go.
2- Meh - at least the Mafia can actually stop the Jailkeeper. Bussing the Roleblocker is no good, but that is true for all small roleblocker setups and can be handled accordingly... at least.
3 - Worse than 2 because the Cop gets clear results. And if the Roleblocker is peeked without a Doc or cop kill or cop block - bye bye scum.

What I get from this that the simple setups are the best. Let me reflect on this.

Toomai
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: January 12, 2013
Location: Ontario
Pronoun: He

Post Post #43  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:12 am

Cop and Doctor are the most fundamental roles in the game across all sources, not just this site, so including them in the newbie setup in some fashion is a very strong consideration (natural familiarity for any new players). The rest of the setup is pretty much a slow and constant evolution to deal with discovered problems.

I said this a while ago when the Matrix6 BP discussion was alive and people were responding with a huge variety of ideas:
In post 198, Toomai wrote:May I remind everyone that the newbie setup started with the most fundamental, well-known roles and has evolved very slowly with intent to keep things fair and reasonable without sacrificing those basic roles.
  • Original: 5v2, Cop + Doctor vs 2 goons. Follow the Cop was developed within 100 games.
  • C9: Same as Original, but to break up FtC, it's a 50/50 chance that there's no Cop, and also a 50/50 chance that there's no Doctor. Obviously evened up very scumsided.
  • Pie E7: Same as Original, but to break up FtC, gives scum a Roleblocker. The Matrix6 version of this has 2 more players and is pretty balanced, meaning this 7-player version must have been scumsided.
  • California: Same as Original, but without the Doctor altogether. Scumsided.
  • F11: Moved to 9 players. Four subsetups: you can have a Cop, or a Doctor, or a Roleblocker, or all three. The "all three" one is balanced as we now know, but the rest are badly scumsided.
  • 2of4: Gives scum a Rolecop and town two of the following: Cop, Doctor, Jailkeeper, or nothing (VT). Worked pretty well, but the Doctor+Jailkeeper subsetup was too good for town.
  • Matrix6: What we have now. Was almost certainly built around the Cop+Doctor+RB trio, with the JK, Tracker, and BP added to even out the matrix.
We don't have any real reason to suddenly blow everything up and add all these new roles. Just keep it simple.


All that being said, there's no reason to seriously consider trashing 2d3 yet. It's worrying, and possibly worth discussing options, but the setup as a whole isn't yet proven awful.

(Besides if absolutely necessary we can go back to Matrix6. It's not unbalanced enough to return to if people get sick of 2d3 faster than something new can be developed.)
(And yes, any change at all is a new setup. Don't confuse newbies who look up "2d3" and get two different matrices.)
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

Not Known 15
Mafia Scum
 
Joined: September 15, 2017

Post Post #44  (ISO)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:44 pm

In post 43, Toomai wrote:All that being said, there's no reason to seriously consider trashing 2d3 yet. It's worrying, and possibly worth discussing options, but the setup as a whole isn't yet proven awful.

I say it is proven awful:
It is complicated. Newbie games should not be overly complicated.
It is too hazardous to newbie scum.
It is evidently not balanced.
It invites specific role-based strategies that are extremely rare outside of semi - open games which are indeed rare.
There was a previous setup, Matrix6, and that had less issues in all these fields, except role based strategies, where the issues were roughly of the same magnitude.
There was a(in hindsight) much better replacement setup Backup6 that exchanged the 1-shot Bulletproof with an Universal Backup.
The Newbie queue should discard 2d3 because it is inferior to the old setup.

Lycanfire
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: June 04, 2016
Pronoun: It

Post Post #45  (ISO)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:50 pm

Take bets on how long it takes mafiascum to realize that there is no perfect newbie setup, only perfect newbie setups.

Toomai
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: January 12, 2013
Location: Ontario
Pronoun: He

Post Post #46  (ISO)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:31 pm

In post 44, Not Known 15 wrote:It is complicated. Newbie games should not be overly complicated.
Setups naturally become more complicated in order to plug the holes discovered in simpler setups. And as long as the matrix can still be expressed in a list-of-possible-setups form (which it can), it can't be that complicated.
In post 44, Not Known 15 wrote:It is too hazardous to newbie scum.
It's also still fairly new (only some of the subsetups have 10 games), so the proper way for scum to play it may not be known for sure yet.
In post 44, Not Known 15 wrote:It is evidently not balanced.
Good balance is certainly desireable, but logically a queue full of inexperienced players will have games of larger swing. And for newbie games, balance is arguably less important than player retention.
In post 44, Not Known 15 wrote:It invites specific role-based strategies that are extremely rare outside of semi - open games which are indeed rare.
This is fundamentally inevitable. Newbie games must be open or semi-open for a more consistent experience, and meta role play always follows from that.
In post 44, Not Known 15 wrote:The Newbie queue should discard 2d3 because it is inferior to the old setup.
The numbers are scratching their chin on this, but it's not conclusive yet. And with the removal of the IC role, things might change in the future simply from that (such as no more "the IC was killed night 1, might be a newbie scum team").
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.

u r a person 2
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: December 09, 2018

Post Post #47  (ISO)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:01 pm

In post 45, Lycanfire wrote:Take bets on how long it takes mafiascum to realize that there is no perfect newbie setup, only perfect newbie setups.

Are you saying that there should be multiple newbie setups that cater to the tastes of different types of players?

good tedtalk
8-5 0-1

northsidegal
Best Performance: Town
Best Performance: Town
 
User avatar
Joined: August 24, 2017
Pronoun: She

Post Post #48  (ISO)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:06 pm

i think the argument that people make (and that lycanfire is making specifically) is that the newbie setup doesn't necessarily need to be some "system" like matrix6 or 2d3, it can just be a small number of setups that are known to be balanced and are randomized from

RadiantCowbells
Smooth Criminal
 
User avatar
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He

Post Post #49  (ISO)  » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:07 pm

In post 48, northsidegal wrote:i think the argument that people make (and that lycanfire is making specifically) is that the newbie setup doesn't necessarily need to be some "system" like matrix6 or 2d3, it can just be a small number of setups that are known to be balanced and are randomized from


yes pls
If you're Macho and someone tries to rolestop you, you never realise you're being targeted for a kill, so your machismo never gets challenged

PreviousNext
[ + ]

Return to Mafia Discussion