Don't sweat it! You're still improving.In post 30, mutantdevle wrote:Tbh, I'd probably win more if I just didn't have reads. If you were to compare random to lynching to only lynching my scum reads then random lynching would be more successful :/
One of your greatest strengths that I've seen in your towngames is your ability to utterly spew town in half your posts, removing yourself from the lynchpool. I probably should've caught that you were scum in Open 714 (Tit for Tat) sooner just by the fact that I wasn't hard-townreading you.
Early scumreads are basically always a shot in the dark unless you know the players around you really well (or the scumteam is bad). What I would work on is figuring out why your townreads were wrong. What is scum capable of faking on this site? What kind of logic/progressions are actually deserving of townreads?
I have a few answers, but as always, publishing tells all over the place is a great way to invalidate those tells. You pick those kinds of things up over time, whether by yourself, or by listening to the logic of other players.
So in the meantime, recognition that your early reads are often flawed is a great foundation for
- Avoiding overconfidence
- Working on what your strengths CAN be in early games
Try sticking to reading the players you know, or trying to rule out scumteams so you know when to sheep other players (see the Know Your Weaknesses section).
Thanks!In post 41, GuiltyLion wrote:yo MD this article is great and overlaps a lot with the way I try to play the game, even put some ideas into words that were kicking around somewhere in my head but that I hadn't considered so explicitly before. Thanks for writing it
hell yeah my dudeIn post 42, GuiltyLion wrote:also make sure to Bayesian analyze individual posts
like if you see a post that is absolutely super unfathomably unlikely to come from scum - such that Probability(Player made post [x] given that Player is scum) is ~0, then it doesn't really matter how much decent evidence you had before for them being scum, they're probably town. I have the highest success for accurate townreads when I find good towntell posts like this.
Same thing goes for scumreads if you find posts that are almost impossible to come from town. Unfortunately, those posts are more rare both because people are trying their hardest to avoid making them and because generally in your experience (and in each game), the volume of townposts >> volume of scumposts
i might make a post that's full on solely about bayesian reasoning in mafia, i don't see that much in the MD