Do you have to "intent to hammer"?

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Invisibility
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Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:38 pm

I've played a game on a different account in 2014 and in that game people said "intent to hammer" when they intended to hammer (duh). However, the games I have seen that happened this year had instances where people hammered without stating that they were going to beforehand. Has the site meta just shifted to do this less or is it simply fate that I did not see any threads where people weren't completely sure that a player was scum?

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Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:46 pm

Naw. Depends on individuals.

It's town to announce your intention to hammer because then the near-lynch knows how close to the edge they are and will co-operate with the will of the town.

But there's always been knuckleheads who act anti-town all the time because they don't mind losing town games so that they win more as scum. Because "lolz" are more important than winning. Avoid games with these people.
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Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:06 pm

I think it's always good to express intent, and pro-town.

Sometimes certain people haven't been able to post, and their thoughts hold value - or it's always a good thing to get the final thoughts of someone who is about to be lynched.

Not giving intent means you're not working to be in sync with the town's general thought pattern. This makes arguments of WIFOM, waffling, and gamesolving muddled to a point; because not everybody knows what lead to someone hammering another person without a heads-up.

I get frustrated when people lolhammer or hammer without intent; it makes town apathy and frustration go up.
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Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:46 pm

“No”
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Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:00 pm

Lol posting intent
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Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:03 pm

Hammur time bois
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Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:06 pm

RadiantCowbells wrote:Hammur time bois

In post 4, Alisae wrote:Lol posting intent


VOTE: Alisae
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Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:07 pm

VOTE: Alisae

Glgl
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Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:13 pm

Tom: "Hi guys ima hammer soon okay"
Bob: "OH NO UNVOTE: "
Sam: "Yeah this day needs to last 5 more weeks to be somewhat productive UNVOTE: "
Tom: "zzzzzzzzzzz"

5 weeks later

Sam: "Fuck, we only have 10 minutes until deadline let's randomly lynch Mulch because he posted too much".

Mulch has been lynched, he was a Townie


vs.

Tom: "VOTE: Ali"

Alisae was lynched, they were Scum
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Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:23 pm

In post 8, Ellibereth wrote:
Tom: "Hi guys ima hammer soon okay"
Bob: "OH NO UNVOTE: "
Sam: "Yeah this day needs to last 5 more weeks to be somewhat productive UNVOTE: "
Tom: "zzzzzzzzzzz"

5 weeks later

Mulch has been lynched, he was a Scum


vs.

Tom: "VOTE: Ali"

Alisae was lynched, they were Townie

Countering argument with same strength argument.
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Post Post #10  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:25 pm

It's unfortunate that Elli compared mid day momentum Lynch to a shit Lynch because I think EOD momentum lynches have some of the best odds of hitting scum.
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Post Post #11  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:28 pm

In post 10, RadiantCowbells wrote:It's unfortunate that Elli compared mid day momentum Lynch to a shit Lynch because I think EOD momentum lynches have some of the best odds of hitting scum.


Not sure that's true in general. Did you check at some point or just based off experience.
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Post Post #12  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:29 pm

In post 9, Kublai Khan wrote:
In post 8, Ellibereth wrote:
Tom: "Hi guys ima hammer soon okay"
Bob: "OH NO UNVOTE: "
Sam: "Yeah this day needs to last 5 more weeks to be somewhat productive UNVOTE: "
Tom: "zzzzzzzzzzz"

5 weeks later

Mulch has been lynched, he was a Scum


vs.

Tom: "VOTE: Ali"

Alisae was lynched, they were Townie


Countering argument with same strength argument.


My point was that there's nothing inherently bad in the former case, and it's sometimes better if Tom is reasonably sure that said L-1'd person is scum and Tom also suspects that town will potentially be "fooled" off the lynch given more time.
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Post Post #13  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:30 pm

Based on someone else's analyses of MU EOD flashwagons that has held true in my experience on both this site and that.
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Post Post #14  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:34 pm

What day length leads to a higher success rate of EoD flashwagon's may also be an interesting question.
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Post Post #15  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:37 pm

I mean regardless, whether to declare or to gogohammer should just depend on that individual's confidence/their judgement on how the other people will vote or unvote.
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Post Post #16  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:38 pm

That stat gets heavily skewed by guilties and near lockscums from previous day making short days better. Exclude those and I have a strong theory that it still points towards more deviant from the mean day lengths.
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Post Post #17  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:41 pm

Although the amount of utter shitlynches that happens close to 14 days may outweigh the true tryhard fourteen day games so maybe it just skews to shorter games.
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Post Post #18  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:45 pm

All inning shorter game days.
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Post Post #19  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:46 pm

Wouldn't be very surprised if true - looking at even D1's alone might even be sufficient to see if there's anything meaningful.

If true why do you think it's conceptually this way? I don't think it's because of "more discussion leads to better results".

Maybe a combination of that some relatively high percentage of "early" hammers are done by people who do them universally, and that scum are more likely to "crack" under higher pressure (e.g. incoming deadline chaos) situations.
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Post Post #20  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:48 pm

Also interesting is for non-short days what percent of close to deadline lynches are on periceved lurkers and what the hitrate is there.
I had started looking at this at some point 6 or 7 years ago where the hitrate was relatively high but not sure if it's still true.
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Post Post #21  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:49 pm

In post 12, Ellibereth wrote:My point was that there's nothing inherently bad in the former case, and it's sometimes better if Tom is reasonably sure that said L-1'd person is scum and Tom also suspects that town will potentially be "fooled" off the lynch given more time.

True, but I argue that the fact that Bob and Tom were willing to L-1 someone but not lynch is indicative of being likely bussing scummates. It's a good info boost to consider.
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Post Post #22  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:52 pm

So with regards to the longer days the first question to ask is why are the days so long and I think a sufficiently high proportion of deadline or near deadline days occur due to hard lurking and apathy (which seems to Lynch town at a far higher than normal rate) that the concept game where I'd argue for high odds of a scum flip is rather drowned out.

Short days largely self select for town apathy, factors in lots of games where the Lynch is obvious, it's easier for scum to control games over longer periods of time, and generally when town is organized enough to communicate enough to get those early lynches they flip better.
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Post Post #23  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:57 pm

In post 0, Invisibility wrote:I've played a game on a different account in 2014 and in that game people said "intent to hammer" when they intended to hammer (duh). However, the games I have seen that happened this year had instances where people hammered without stating that they were going to beforehand. Has the site meta just shifted to do this less or is it simply fate that I did not see any threads where people weren't completely sure that a player was scum?

Just to be clear, you're talking after they already claimed right?
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Post Post #24  (ISO)  » Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:59 pm

On a deeper level I think that early flips favor the team that has the most charismatic individual as that alignment in play: but in most games that is town due to both numbers and gaps in people's play.
If you're Macho and someone tries to rolestop you, you never realise you're being targeted for a kill, so your machismo never gets challenged

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