On the reliability of scumreads Day 1

This forum is for discussion related to the game.
Allomancer
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: November 05, 2016
Location: Earth
Pronoun: It

Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:51 pm

The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively. Most of the info actually comes Day 2 when you can compare who was defending and attacking who with the known allegiances of the dead.

One thing I suggest is a sort of "informational N0". Killers can't kill Night 0 so that everyone still plays, but information gatherers such as Cops can gather information so that people have information for Day 1. Has this ever been done before?
"Who the fuck counts in Babylonian? I'm impressed sir. So impressed that I'm going to ruin your counting."—xofelf
"This might be the worst hydra I've seen in all of mafiascum history."—T-bone
"idk, you don't feel like an easy mislynch"—Creature

Creature
Of Habit
 
User avatar
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire
Pronoun: He

Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:58 pm

Probably wouldn't be nice to get peeked red before you can even play.
Every man has the right to be an idiot and you are abusing the privilege

Creature
Of Habit
 
User avatar
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire
Pronoun: He

Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:58 pm

Also it's actually possible to get something D1 if you have a good participating town.
Every man has the right to be an idiot and you are abusing the privilege

Nibbui
Goon
 
User avatar
Joined: September 01, 2018
Pronoun: He

Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:43 pm

I don't think day 1 scum reads are that bad and therefore would need extra info in the day to be worth?

I even feel like it's very useful to look back on the early pages when we're getting out of RVS afterwards because it's impressive how often you can tell something kind of wrong with how scum acts there.

I particularly find day 1 reads good as long as it's based on something substantial (and we can get substantial posts in day 1 imo). Sometimes we even read players correctly on day 1 or early but end up misreading them later with the "extra info" of flips, wagons and NKs.

Gamma Emerald
Undiscovered
 
User avatar
Joined: August 09, 2016
Pronoun: He

Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:29 am

There are some games like this but at least in the Cop 13ers on MU the n0 cannot be on a scum, for what Creature stated
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

Zachrulez
Jack of All Trades
 
User avatar
Joined: December 05, 2008
Location: Minnesota
Pronoun: He

Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:53 am

In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively. Most of the info actually comes Day 2 when you can compare who was defending and attacking who with the known allegiances of the dead.

One thing I suggest is a sort of "informational N0". Killers can't kill Night 0 so that everyone still plays, but information gatherers such as Cops can gather information so that people have information for Day 1. Has this ever been done before?


People who write off day 1 and don't start playing day 2 tend to be people who often go on to lose games.

I see so many people say there's no info on day 1. I contend they aren't making enough of an effort to look for it. Day 1 is probably your best foundation for pretty much any info you gather for the rest of the game. I'd argue it's the most important day of the game. (When I think back to a lot of critical lynch decisions I've needed to make in many mafia games regardless of when in the game they were... the info to make the right decision often came through information from day 1.)

callforjudgement
Microprocessor
 
User avatar
Joined: September 01, 2011

Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:43 am

Cop Head Start is a known mechanic (i.e. N0 with actions but without kills; it's called "Cop Head Start" as investigatives tend to be the only roles that can perform useful actions then). However, it's not used that commonly over here.

If you want to give a player a "N0 innocent", you can use an Informed Townie. We interpret that as being a different role from a Cop (although a player could be both).

Note that there is information you can go on. For example, sometimes players will claim at L-1. Before claims (or in a symmetrical/all-vanilla game), you have at least two other sources of information: scum already know who the scum are (thus you can sometimes pick up on a player's lack of curiosity), and scum will typically be trying to prevent their buddies being the D1 lynch (they may give up doing so at some point if it looks like they're doomed, a transition that's also possible to pick up on). Note that it's often hard to make use of this information on D1 – thus it's more commonly used later in the game – but that doesn't mean that it's impossible.
scum · scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn · town

mutantdevle
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: October 22, 2017
Location: Hell
Pronoun: He

Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:11 am

In post 1, Creature wrote:Probably wouldn't be nice to get peeked red before you can even play.

^^ No one likes losing just because they got copped. But at least on N1+ you can say it's because the person happened to suspect you rather than it being completely random.
I may disappear from the site for a few days at a time due to things being a little busy irl.

Gamma Emerald
Undiscovered
 
User avatar
Joined: August 09, 2016
Pronoun: He

Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:34 am

Honestly if you do get guiltied n0 that means they feared you as scum which says a lot imo
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

RadiantCowbells
People tried
 
User avatar
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He

Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:42 pm

In post 8, Gamma Emerald wrote:Honestly if you do get guiltied n0 that means they feared you as scum which says a lot imo


What does it say exactly
If you're Macho and someone tries to rolestop you, you never realise you're being targeted for a kill, so your machismo never gets challenged

RadiantCowbells
People tried
 
User avatar
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He

Post Post #10  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:44 pm

In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively. Most of the info actually comes Day 2 when you can compare who was defending and attacking who with the known allegiances of the dead.

One thing I suggest is a sort of "informational N0". Killers can't kill Night 0 so that everyone still plays, but information gatherers such as Cops can gather information so that people have information for Day 1. Has this ever been done before?


This is a very weak view of mafia that defeats most of the point of playing mafia imo
If you're Macho and someone tries to rolestop you, you never realise you're being targeted for a kill, so your machismo never gets challenged

Loopdan
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: May 13, 2016

Post Post #11  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:53 pm

In post 2, Creature wrote:Also it's actually possible to get something D1 if you have a good participating town.


Especially in Newbie games when you throw away the friendliness and make everyone uncomfortable.

Creature
Of Habit
 
User avatar
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire
Pronoun: He

Post Post #12  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:59 pm

Sometimes you have to throw away the friendliness.
Every man has the right to be an idiot and you are abusing the privilege

MathBlade
Technical Support
 
User avatar
Joined: September 09, 2013
Location: Western US
Pronoun: He

Post Post #13  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:12 pm

Mafia is a game of social deduction of incomplete information.

I play it to become better at said social deduction. On other sites I curbstomp but not here. It’s kinda weird.

If you’re wanting complete information as town then you’re no longer deducing. It’s one of the reasons I love vanilla games.

Day one scum give away a lot because they don’t know the board. Games with an N0 peek for the cop have a set strategy especially on MU and other sites and then it’s more going through the motions than mafia.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade

MathBlade
Technical Support
 
User avatar
Joined: September 09, 2013
Location: Western US
Pronoun: He

Post Post #14  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:13 pm

In post 6, callforjudgement wrote:Cop Head Start is a known mechanic (i.e. N0 with actions but without kills; it's called "Cop Head Start" as investigatives tend to be the only roles that can perform useful actions then). However, it's not used that commonly over here.

If you want to give a player a "N0 innocent", you can use an Informed Townie. We interpret that as being a different role from a Cop (although a player could be both).

Note that there is information you can go on. For example, sometimes players will claim at L-1. Before claims (or in a symmetrical/all-vanilla game), you have at least two other sources of information: scum already know who the scum are (thus you can sometimes pick up on a player's lack of curiosity), and scum will typically be trying to prevent their buddies being the D1 lynch (they may give up doing so at some point if it looks like they're doomed, a transition that's also possible to pick up on). Note that it's often hard to make use of this information on D1 – thus it's more commonly used later in the game – but that doesn't mean that it's impossible.


This information gets used. Just not by the cop.

Standard operating procedure is cop leaves crumb of their N0 peek. When they die that person is confirmed town. Confirmed town leads next day and then dies. It’s all pretty rote.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade

Loopdan
Mafia Scum
 
User avatar
Joined: May 13, 2016

Post Post #15  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:39 pm

In post 12, Creature wrote:Sometimes you have to throw away the friendliness.


I didn't mean "Creature" when I said "you." Meant it generically, but I just realized it looks like I'm saying you (Creature) are unfriendly in Newbies, when what I meant to convey was agreement and how it works in my experience.

Creature
Of Habit
 
User avatar
Joined: January 26, 2016
Location: Lands of Fire
Pronoun: He

Post Post #16  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:41 pm

In post 15, Loopdan wrote:
In post 12, Creature wrote:Sometimes you have to throw away the friendliness.


I didn't mean "Creature" when I said "you." Meant it generically, but I just realized it looks like I'm saying you (Creature) are unfriendly in Newbies, when what I meant to convey was agreement and how it works in my experience.

I knew you weren't referring me, just was saying sometimes you gotta shower the true reality about competitive mafia.
Every man has the right to be an idiot and you are abusing the privilege

Alisae
lolbalance
 
User avatar
Joined: October 31, 2016
Location: Cali~ (PST)
Pronoun: E (e/em/eir/eirs/emself)

Post Post #17  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:43 pm

In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively.
Yo dude just go buy Town of Salem on steam I heard its pretty cheep
Ali Plays!
Feel free to approach me on discord: Alisae#3437
I wanna get to know an Alisae! Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

RadiantCowbells
People tried
 
User avatar
Joined: February 24, 2013
Pronoun: He

Post Post #18  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:12 am

In post 17, Alisae wrote:
In post 0, Allomancer wrote:The problem with Day 1 is that no one has any information besides the mafia, so it is difficult to scumhunt as effectively.
Yo dude just go buy Town of Salem on steam I heard its pretty cheep


Hey don't do this
If you're Macho and someone tries to rolestop you, you never realise you're being targeted for a kill, so your machismo never gets challenged

northsidegal
no expectations
 
User avatar
Joined: August 24, 2017
Pronoun: She

Post Post #19  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:26 am

i have always disagreed with the notion that day 1's are useless and will argue against it every time i see it brought up. reading people based on their play doesn't really change significantly from day to day, and i really don't think that should be something that you just ignore.

Spoiler: i wrote more words about this here
In post 190, northsidegal wrote:
In post 189, naturalbreadcrumbs wrote:I can see why analyzing day 1 dialogue in the later days would prove to be useful, but on the first day itself, unless you get lucky and hit scum with a wagon, how would you hunt for scum? There's no inherent information distinguishing them from town, right?

Do you believe that people lying and people telling the truth do both of those actions in the exact same way? If so, you would be factually incorrect.

In real life, at least, there are various traits of liars that can distinguish them from people telling the truth: that's the principle behind the polygraph (despite its dubious reliability) and police interrogations. This is perhaps a lot more noticeable in face to face mafia where the stress of continued lying gets to people in a way that might be a lot more obvious than could come across through a textual medium like a forum. That being said, in principle it's still visible through a forum – just because there aren't necessarily objective rules for what town do versus what scum do, that doesn't mean you can't analyze things within the context of the game: for example, if someone's thought process is consistent, if it seems like they have conviction in what they're saying, etc.

On something of a separate note (and I bring this up separately because I know that some people disagree with me), a tool that is almost always applicable regardless of the day phase would be using a player's meta. If someone posts a lot as town but doesn't post as much as scum and they're posting a lot in Day 1 of a game that you're in, well... that's something that points towards that person being town that you didn't need any flips to derive. That's obviously a very simple example, but there are much deeper things you could look at, all of which basically come back to the principle of "what's the difference between someone's townplay and their scumplay".


Trying to analyze everyone's alignment simply in terms of the information gained by flips is, in my opinion, almost certainly bound to get lose you games to scum who do things that you just don't expect: bussing, white flag gambits, nightkilling strange targets, etc.

Gamma Emerald
Undiscovered
 
User avatar
Joined: August 09, 2016
Pronoun: He

Post Post #20  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:03 pm

In post 9, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 8, Gamma Emerald wrote:Honestly if you do get guiltied n0 that means they feared you as scum which says a lot imo


What does it say exactly

It says you have a reputation that precedes you and you should be proud of your ability to strike fear into the hearts of towns
Sometimes silence is the loudest thing you can say.

mhsmith0
Balancing Act
 
User avatar
Joined: March 07, 2016
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Pronoun: He

Post Post #21  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm

Colonel Thomas Rainsborough wrote:...Seriously, I want you all to write down your personal list of behaviours in-thread that on d1 you consider scum-indicative and which town-indicative
...
Once you have your lists, now I want you to try a new approach to the game. You are going to catch a mafia d1! Instead of believing this myth that d1 is always a crap-shoot and mafia will likely get a townie lynched that day believe something akin to the opposite.

I believe that d1 is the mafia's hardest day. They will leave a legacy of clues on this day specifically that will help you throughout the game.

If things are going badly for a town as they move into d3, d4, d5 there is more and more 'sludge' in thread - townies posting garbage, getting into fights, confirmation bias written large etc etc. The mafia have all sorts of camoflage to mask their insincerity. So you go back to d1 and you read it again through the lens of all that has happened since...

Oh and that's the clue - you are looking for insincerity most especially in why they vote for who they vote on. (They may be insincerely voting on a buddy) How do you spot insincerity - their reasons make no sense or their move from one person to a new target 'jars' you cannot see the progression or evolution in their thinking that is characteristic of a clueless townie or their vote is lazy in its level of scrutiny when you know this person as town is diligent and even sometimes insightful.

So mid-d1 I want you to sort by author and re-read each person's opus. Pick your top 2. Vote for one of them and drive that lynch. See what flows from that. Something might happen that will change your mind, but mostly you will stick with it.

Then every day subsequently most especially when you feel lost and frustrated that you haven't a f*cking clue who the mafia are they are so well hidden. Do the same again and re-find the scum. Things that would not have led you to lynch someone on d1 will now stand out as a clue based on what has happened d2 or d3 etc. Always do vote pattern analysis every day

Either way, d1 is 'pure'. Insincerity has a sharp relief. Mafia don't have as much townie generated 'sludge' to hide behind. Fake scumhunting is hard. bk as scum team lead was doing a good job, but even then ultimately his solution to getting through d1 was to vote on a buddy. I don't blame him. It's one of my favourites too. It has so much long-term value and a good mafia knows that d1 is tough because he is thinking deeply about what it is to be a mafia.

So catching mafia based on d1 is easy? Well of course not. You have a problem. largely useless townies who don't know how to scumhunt drifting into inactivity or just jumping on a bandwagon since they are so unconfident in their own ability to scumhunt or relying on some lame linear reason to vote for someone or its opposite - something woven out of too much complexity as if mafia were masterminds
Show


[ + ]

Return to Mafia Discussion

cron