NewbScum Greeting Tell

[callforjudgement]

Bayes' formula is used to reverse a conditional probability: if you know the probability of X happening when Y is true, it calculates the probability of Y happening when X is true. So for example, if you know the probability that a scum player will drop a particular scumtell, it lets you work out the probability that a player who drops that scumtell is scum. (In order to work it out, you also need to know how likely X and Y are in the abstract, but we have this information in this case; we know how many people are greeting in total, and we also know how likely a random player is to be scum in a Newbie given no further information.)

[Ramcius]

Does that mean that there's 37% chance for greeting to come from scum?

And if yes, can I see formula for town? It should be 63% then

If no, then what this 37% indicates?

[northsidegal]

hey everyone!

i've been reading some other people's games while i'm waiting to be placed in my own, so i recognize a lot of you! pretty soon i'll have all of you figured out!

[Firebringer]

I wonder whats it like to play in a forum mafia game where your first time playing the game is as scum.....Is that like a chilling/terror inspiring experience? I had trouble when I finally rolled scum but I had town experience to back it up.

[callforjudgement]

Does that mean that there's 37% chance for greeting to come from scum?

It means that if someone makes a greeting, and you have no other information (other than that they're playing a 2:7 game with randomly assigned roles), they have a 37% chance of being scum and a 63% chance of being town.

[Something_Smart]

I wonder whats it like to play in a forum mafia game where your first time playing the game is as scum.....Is that like a chilling/terror inspiring experience? I had trouble when I finally rolled scum but I had town experience to back it up.

I was scum in my first game, and I actually kinda liked it. Basic scum skills are easier to pick up than basic town skills imo. (Of course it helped that the game was absolute cancer and I was not being harmed by most of it ) I found playing town in forum mafia to be a lot steeper of a learning curve.

Also dammit I fell for this tell in that game too, LOL.

Hello everybody. I will be replacing Joker. I'm a newbie and have 15 pages to read so I'll post my thoughts asap.

[Flavor Leaf]

To be fair, that was like FlippyNips 3rd game too where he did that, haha. Poor him rolled scum like 4-5 times in a row to begin his mafia career here.

And we got this gem from his first scum game.
viewtopic.php?p=10617429#p10617429

Interesting results, though. Will definitely keep an eye out for this.

[Ankamius]

I wonder whats it like to play in a forum mafia game where your first time playing the game is as scum.....Is that like a chilling/terror inspiring experience? I had trouble when I finally rolled scum but I had town experience to back it up.

I had to fight town zmuffinman in my first game on site

It didn't go well...

[Ramcius]

Does that mean that there's 37% chance for greeting to come from scum?

It means that if someone makes a greeting, and you have no other information (other than that they're playing a 2:7 game with randomly assigned roles), they have a 37% chance of being scum and a 63% chance of being town.

(26/100)*(7/9)/(46/135) gives me 59%, not 63%

Why X/(X+Y) is wrong? Where X is scum greetings and Y is town greetings

[mhsmith0]

The observed P(town|greeting) is 56.5%, the observed P(wolf|greeting) is 43.5%. If you're looking for answers solely inside that sample size, I think you're done at that point.

If you want a more generalizable answer, then you need to go a bit further. Essentially, you need to adjust for the fact that looking SOLELY at the sample size, 35/135 newbie players randed wolf, which is 25.9%, substantially larger than the typical 22.2%.

"Factor A" = 77.8% / 74.1% = 105.0% (standard town frequency / observed town frequency)
"Factor B" = 22.2% / 25.9% = 85.7% (standard wolf frequency / observed wolf frequency)

43.5% (observed wolf|greeting) * 85.7% = 37.3%, what implosion calculated
56.5% (observed town|greeting) * 105.0% = 59.3%, the flip side of what implosion calculated

HOWEVER, 37.3% (P[wolf|greeting]) +59.3% (P[town|greeting]) != 100.0%, so something's off but I'm not sure off the cuff what it would be, and I'm too lazy to really rethink my math

[Ramcius]

Hm, good point about newbies scum percentage, I believe Implosions formula is incomplete then, it doesn't take into consideration SE slots and possibly replacements

Also, am I only one, who had hard time with probabilities in school?

[mastina]

I wonder whats it like to play in a forum mafia game where your first time playing the game is as scum...

There's a certain feeling of inadequacy, can tell you that.

[RadiantCowbells]

Hi guys!

I'm the replacement for Waluigi and I'll be joining you.

I have to go to class but when I come back I'll look over the thread and see if my fresh eyes can hunt down some evil mafia scumbags

My first ever scum post after replacing in

[MaryJoLisa]

Hi guys!

I'm the replacement for Waluigi and I'll be joining you.

I have to go to class but when I come back I'll look over the thread and see if my fresh eyes can hunt down some evil mafia scumbags

My first ever scum post after replacing in

That is adorable!

[callforjudgement]

My first post as scum didn't greet the game (although it was an "I've just replaced in and am about to reread" post, which might be a similar kind of thing? I do that as both announcements when I don't immediately have time to catch up, anyway).

[RadiantCowbells]

[GuyInFreezer]

VOTE: RC

ez game

[Ramcius]

Even RC was nice and innocent eons ago, wow

[Ankamius]

Subject: Newbie Game 1106: Death with a 2x4 (limps to finish line)

/confirm

I am GMT - 6 (Central Standard Time)

Subject: Newbie Game 1106: Death with a 2x4 (limps to finish line)

VOTE: Ant

I don't like bugs. Squish time.

I avoided the tell!

[Krazy]

Subject: Mini 1122: Mafia.Exe Game Over

Hello all

Unvote

for now until I get a chance to read the thread

first scum game

seems right lol, although I coupled it with an unvote. What's the metric for this anyway? Is a "greeting post" a post where you only give a greeting and do nothing else?

[u r a person 2]

a greeting post is any post that greets the entire thread, rather than a specific player or players. Usually this comes at the start of a post, but I've also seen it come in the middle of posts. Scum can be tricky, after all ;P

Your post is a classic example!

Loopdan, I really appreciate you putting this together, lol

[u r a person 2]

Another way to look at it is that on average roughly one newb scum a game is going to use a greeting tell. I know that's not a hard conclusion of the data posted because games could have 2 se scum, etc, but it gives a very early, and statistically indicative way to focus my attention in newbie games and I like that.

[u r a person 2]

Anecdotally it is super not effective against people with like 5 games under their belt or one game with me

[Irrelephant11]

Subject: Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you! Sadly I have super limited availability on weekends. I also see RVS is over, so I’ll try to come back with some reads and get hunting maybe even before the weekend is over.

lolllll
we won this game too

[Something_Smart]

Also dammit I fell for this tell in that game too, LOL.

Actually, retracting this. I checked the first 5 or so games I replaced into and I greeted the thread regardless of alignment.