New Newbie Setup

[singletonking]

IMO Mafia Rolecop is very underpowered and may even be a liability in a micro. Their N1 shot is really the only useful one, because it's optimal for town to massclaim D3 anyway, and their death gives town info.

I think Rolecop should at least have a pregame VT check.

[Oversoul]

Rolecop is a pretty crappy role in mini games in my opinion especially against investigative roles.

[callforjudgement]

B2 is a sketchy setup for itself but it existing is super good for the setup at large completely kills the impetus for town to try to tracker claim to prevent this and shouldn't be too out of order balance wise.

B2 actually looks really painful if either member of the scumteam dies early. It should be survivable for scum if they both survive, but a 7:2 becoming almost White Flag is possibly a bit too townsided?

[RadiantCowbells]

It definitely sims the highest winrate of all the setups

My concern with eliminating it is that it makes tracker claiming far more enticing and I really want to discourage that

As is it's a 1/9 chance of a townsided game that... hopefully shouldn't be too too bad? Notably most of the crazy jailkeeper games recently have gone down to low players and role cop lets them hunt so idk.

If there's a setup to remove that's the one though.

[Not Known 15]

I'm also curious why you think it's optimal for friendly neighbors to claim D2. They're the least lynchable role and narrowing it down to a 50/50 whether the tracker claim is a good idea isn't really worth outing them?

It's optimal for friendly neighbors to claim D2 with both power roles present because either
-scum kills them and not the other PR, who is more powerful
-scum kills the other PR and then they would have to claim in LYLO, possibly
or scum kills a VT regardless...
The FN has no power but to confirm themselves anyways.
And them claiming Day 2 has also the positive effect that there is a townie you can trust in if the others cannot agree to a lynch.
And them claiming Day 2 has also the positive effect of the other power role not wasting their night action on them.

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't agree and I don't want to argue on phone.

I'll plug my computer in at some point.

[RadiantCowbells]

Like it's not THE WORST idea

But it doesn't do much good either. Tracker claiming is still pretty mediocre and FN outing makes it impossible for scum to shoot a VT N2 most of the time. it's already ~unlikely~ but there's little benefit to it.

[RadiantCowbells]

I won't argue that the claim strategy will never come up, people do weird things.

I will argue that it won't be one that raises winrates for town.

One thing most people misinterpreted about M6 bp claim was it wasn't about having the BP as IC in a general sense

It was about two things

1) confirming the BP in JK/BP strategy so they can be used as an IC instead of most likely never being confirmed

And

2) allowing tracker to out and play hidden follow the cop

This guarantees that scum knows one PR for... no real mechanical gain besides not having the tracker target them.

[RadiantCowbells]

And even the best case scenario where you're trying to play follow the cop with the tracker scum find the Doc by N2 the vast vast majority of the time.

[RadiantCowbells]

IMO Mafia Rolecop is very underpowered and may even be a liability in a micro. Their N1 shot is really the only useful one, because it's optimal for town to massclaim D3 anyway, and their death gives town info.

I think Rolecop should at least have a pregame VT check.

Having 3 instead of 2 tries (oversimplification but mostly accurate) at shooting the PR is a huge deal.

[nomnomnom]

By the way, I think I agree with pops. The matrix representation doesn't make much sense here imo. I think that for clarity of representation it would be preferrable to present it in lines?

1. Scum Role 1: A / B / C
2. Scum Role 2: A / B / C
3. Scum Role 3: A / B / C

I think that would be much clearer to explain too.

[Not Known 15]

And even the best case scenario where you're trying to play follow the cop with the tracker scum find the Doc by N2 the vast vast majority of the time.

That's a bit of an overstatement(especially because follow the cop with the tracker was not what I recommended), but you got one point - the FN revealing is worse than I initially thought, and that means that these strategies collapse.
Although I still have one problem with the setup...
B1 is Tracker + FN vs RCop + goon
B2 is Jailkeeper + FN vs RCop + goon
Tracker is a bit more powerful in 9p
but Jailkeeper is more powerful in 9p, too, and it is already a powerful role. In 9p it is even more powerful than a cop if a Roleblocker is absent.
Obviously, one of these setups will not be balanced well.

[popsofctown]

Something that isn't naturally reflected in the EV that matters for how games play out is how roles are weakened or strengthened when scum are performing effectively in the dayplay.

Closed Setup Watcher is an example of one of the absolute most egriegous (sp?) roles because a town that has accomplished absolutely nothing besides obvtowning a single player gets to delete a member of the mafia even if all of their other sorting is wrong.

The roles that appear more frequently in this matrix tend towards the other side of the spectrum. Friendly neighbor is less effective when scum are "obvtowning" and the FN visits them.
Tracker is similar, when the tracker investigates all the wrong people because the scum is playing well, he gets nothing, not even clears. Sane cop always gets at least clears.
Jailkeeper is one of the ones that makes me sadface sometimes especially when you accidentally benefit from the half of it you weren't intending, but it's kind of a necessary evil.

Re: rolecop, I don't think N0 rolecop would scumside any of that column's setups but I'm not sure the complexity cost is appropriate for a newbie :S.
As far as I can tell RC's matrix is the most scumsided one that has been submitted and it's being criticized for town advantages, I am not sure if I am terrible at evaluating setups or people are just being obstinate (if something more scumsided than everything that has ever been submitted needs to be submitted including this one then well they should submit one)

[Not Known 15]

Re: rolecop, I don't think N0 rolecop would scumside any of that column's setups but I'm not sure the complexity cost is appropriate for a newbie :S.
As far as I can tell RC's matrix is the most scumsided one that has been submitted and it's being criticized for town advantages, I am not sure if I am terrible at evaluating setups or people are just being obstinate (if something more scumsided than everything that has ever been submitted needs to be submitted including this one then well they should submit one)

Well, we need a matrix/general setup that is more scumsided than the current one.
I am still not happy about the potentially large difference in scumsidedness - there are large WR differences between JK + FN and 2 Masons.

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm open to altering B2 but I think several of the other 8 setups are better for its presence even if it itself is probably in the range of 63%ish townsided

[callforjudgement]

Does Doctor / Friendly Neighbour work as B2? Or does that violate a structural element elsewhere in the setup? (I agree that there aren't many potential replacements that don't break something, but I can't see an obvious break from that one and it seems potentially balanced.)

[RadiantCowbells]

It's scumsided and it makes it likely that tracker claiming will happen at least some of the time.

[Not Known 15]

NewD3	Column A	Column B	Column C
Mafia	Goon / Roleblocker	Goon / Role Cop	Goon/Goon
Row 1	Cop / Doctor	Tracker / Friendly Neighbour	Cop
Row 2	Jailkeeper / Tracker	Jailkeeper / Friendly Neighbour	Jailkeeper
Row 3	Mason / Mason	Tracker / Doctor	Mason / Mason

Modified RC Setup	Column A	Column B	Column C
Mafia	Goon / Roleblocker	Goon / Role Cop	Goon/Goon
Row 1	Cop / Doctor	Tracker/Friendly Neighbor	Cop
Row 2	Jailkeeper / Tracker	Jailkeeper	Friendly Neighbor/Friendly Neighbor
Row 3	Mason / Mason	Tracker / Doctor	Mason / Mason

How is this?

[Ircher]

C2 is clearly scumsided, although admittedly, A3 and C3 are probably scumsided as well.

According to the EV project wiki page, town has an EV of 33% when there are two confirmed innocents.

[RadiantCowbells]

Does that assume they're outed as innocents D1 though because EV isn't such a great approximation

[Ircher]

Ah, it does, so the actual win rate would be higher.

[RadiantCowbells]

The version of EV that most people use doesn't actually approximate mafia well at all.

[callforjudgement]

For what it's worth, I consider a Micro with two hidden Innocent Children (i.e. players who can confirm themselves but scum don't know who they are until they do) to be slightly scumsided, but not nearly as bad as a setup where the players in question are confirmed from the start (in the latter case, scum just NKs them N1 and N2).

[popsofctown]

The second mason should always be able to wait until LyLo or L-1 to IC themselves if the crumbing is optimal. You put some kind of obscure bizarre way of crumbing your partner in the thread, then write the explanation for how to unravel it in the mason PT, and the mason can use it to clear themselves. If you do it right, scum can't find the mason to NK them until they out.

I don't know whether to expect that out of newbies though.

[Not Known 15]

I don't know whether to expect that out of newbies though.

Well, masons have a chat. They can talk together in secret about that. That's part of their strength.
Once a mason is found out the other mason will often follow quickly - that's not necessarily the case with FN's; yet those might scumread each other...