New Newbie Setup

[Irrelephant11]

As pointed out in the 2d3 Newbie thread (viewtopic.php?p=10982263#p10982263), changing meta regarding Normal/popular setups, phase lengths, etc have left the newbie queue townsided and misrepresentative of our site as a whole.

This thread is for the purpose of discussing an edited or new setup and/or list of setups that would be a better introduction to newbies than what we have now

To make sure this isn’t just an endless conversation that effects no real change, sometime in early July I will provide a recap and maybe some method of capturing widespread feedback on the ideas that spring from this thread.

[Irrelephant11]

Hey guys I have a question

WHAT is the purpose of the newbie queue?

- Introduce players to forum mafia - more specifically introduce them to how mafia is played on our site
- Create an experience that leads to them returning for more games, eventually branching out to other queues/areas of the site and retaining them long term.

[Ausuka]

Looking at 2d3 we find the following results:

Setups townsided above 70% are: A1 (5x VT, 1x Town Neapolitan, 1x Town Cop VS 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Roleblocker), A3 (5x VT, 1x Town Doctor, 1x Town Cop VS 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Roleblocker), B1 (5x VT, 1x Town Tracker, 1x Town Cop VS 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Rolecop), C2 (6x VT, 1x Town Jailkeeper VS 2x Mafia Goon)

Setups townsided between 60-70% are: B2 (5x VT, 1x Town Tracker, 1x Town Jailkeeper VS 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Rolecop) C3 (5x VT, 1x Town Doctor, 1x Town Tracker VS 2x Mafia Goon)

Setups balanced between 40-60% are: A2 (5x VT, 1x Town Doctor, 1x Town Jailkeeper VS 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Roleblocker), B3 (5x VT, 1x Town Doctor, 1x Town Neapolitan VS 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Rolecop)

Setups scumsided between 30-40% are: C1 (6x VT, 1x Town Cop VS 2x Mafia Goon)

Setups scumsided below 30% are:

Based on current stats I'd find it hard to argue that A1, A3, B1 or C2 have any place in a newbie setup that's intended to be somewhat balanced. I think everything else is pretty okay? 70% is not ideal but I think borderlines on manageable considering that only two setups fall into the 40-60% range.

One idea would be to just roll between

6x Vanilla Townie, 1x Town Cop vs 2x Mafia Goon
5x Vanilla Townie, 1x Town Doctor, 1x Town Tracker vs 2x Mafia Goon
5x Vanilla Townie, 1x Town Doctor, 1x Town Neapolitan vs 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Rolecop
5x Vanilla Townie, 1x Town Tracker, 1x Town Jailkeeper vs 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Rolecop
5x Vanilla Townie, 1x Town Doctor, 1x Town Jailkeeper vs 1x Mafia Goon, 1x Mafia Roleblocker

The Neapolitan and perhaps the Tracker will claim every time, though, so this really isn't an option. Perhaps a better idea would be to introduce some new roles on the town side. An example of roles I'd look at include: the Bodyguard, the Innocent Child, the Motion Detector or the Watcher.

To have a try at formatting a 2d3- style setup using the more balanced setups and some of the new roles:

	A	B	C
Mafia	Mafia Roleblocker	Mafia Rolecop	Mafia Goon
Row 1	Town Cop and Town Tracker	Town Watcher and Town Motion Detector	Town Cop and Vanilla Townie
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper and Town Doctor	Town Jailkeeper and Town Bodyguard	Town Watcher and Town Motion Detector
Row 3	Town Cop and Town Bodyguard	Town Tracker and Town Doctor	Town Tracker and Town Bodyguard

Column A & Row 1:

Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 2:

Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3:

Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Bodyguard, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1:

Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Watcher, Town Motion Detector, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2:

Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Bodyguard, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 3:

Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1:

Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2:

Mafia Goon x 2, Town Watcher, Motion Detector x 6

Column C & Row 3:

Mafia Goon x 2, Town Bodyguard, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

The potential issue is still with a tracker claiming I think; the inclusion of A1, where such a thing is pretty (very) bad for town, is intended to resolve that even though it'll still likely have a high town winrate with a roleblocker instead of a rolecop (although it'll be less bad because pretty objectively rb>rolecop? maybe 60% or something.) As for balance I'm definitely not an expert and just went with what seems right; this is probably going to be imbalanced in at least some respect but could serve as a decent starting point?

[MaryJoLisa]

As pointed out in the 2d3 Newbie thread (viewtopic.php?p=10982263#p10982263), changing meta regarding Normal/popular setups, phase lengths, etc have left the newbie queue townsided and misrepresentative of our site as a whole.

This thread is for the purpose of discussing an edited or new setup and/or list of setups that would be a better introduction to newbies than what we have now

To make sure this isn’t just an endless conversation that effects no real change, sometime in early July I will provide a recap and maybe some method of capturing widespread feedback on the ideas that spring from this thread.

I've said it before, but I think phase lengths should be shorter. Maybe like 5-7 RL days with 24 hour night phases. Newbie games have day talk for Mafia, so what then do they need 48 hours to discuss? Might be worth it to evaluate mafia PTs to see how many people need the full 48 hours to come to an NK consensus. I also notice that even games that are lagging often get a second wind of energy as the deadlines grow closer. Why not cut out the middleman and skip over the slower middle part of the day phase and go right from RVS to "shit we need to solve this thing before the deadline!"

I get that MS's thing is a longer phase length to accommodate people with busy schedules, and I've come around to the line of thinking that this can be good. But lots of other mafia groups have much shorter day phases and it's a big adjustment to go from 36 hours on another site to 10 RL days here. Shortening the phase lengths keeps activity up, and it keeps players engaged while still working to acclimate new players to a site that has 10-14 day phase lengths as the norm.

[RadiantCowbells]

A lot of the games have too few played to draw meaningful empirical conclusions

I think it's better to let 2d3 go on a bit longer for that reason

[RadiantCowbells]

(so that we can know which setups to keep, not because it's in question that s lot of the setups are bunk)

[Not Known 15]

(so that we can know which setups to keep, not because it's in question that s lot of the setups are bunk)

Sorry, wrong.
We

won't

be able to do that. And we

shouldn't

do that.
For two reasons:
1.
Essentially, each subsetup is influenced by the general setup.
A subsetup viable in one semi-open can be horrible in another, due to claim reasons. And the other way around is also possible.
2.
If you want to wait until you have more reliable statistics for subsetups then you will have to wait years.
And if it isn't in question

that s lot of the setups are bunk

then we shouldn't wait. Especially not

years

.

[Toomai]

I've said it before, but I think phase lengths should be shorter. Maybe like 5-7 RL days with 24 hour night phases. Newbie games have day talk for Mafia, so what then do they need 48 hours to discuss? Might be worth it to evaluate mafia PTs to see how many people need the full 48 hours to come to an NK consensus. I also notice that even games that are lagging often get a second wind of energy as the deadlines grow closer. Why not cut out the middleman and skip over the slower middle part of the day phase and go right from RVS to "shit we need to solve this thing before the deadline!"

I get that MS's thing is a longer phase length to accommodate people with busy schedules, and I've come around to the line of thinking that this can be good. But lots of other mafia groups have much shorter day phases and it's a big adjustment to go from 36 hours on another site to 10 RL days here. Shortening the phase lengths keeps activity up, and it keeps players engaged while still working to acclimate new players to a site that has 10-14 day phase lengths as the norm.

• Shorter days is part of why town's winrate is so high, scum in newbie games appear to need time to have a chance. Unless you want to make a setup that's a lot stronger (and likely swingier) for scum.
  
• Just because scum have daytalk doesn't mean they'll use it effectively. You can't cut nights based on that.

[BNL]

I haven't played 2d3 yet but from a theoretical standpoint I think a good way to balance the setup without changing it much would be to add a setup to the pool:

2 Mafia Goon, 1 Town Neapolitan, 6 Vanilla Townie

This is slightly weaker than the Cop variation, but it also nerfs the other Neapolitan setups. In those setups, the Neapolitan gets a false guilty on only one town role, who would be conftown via claim anyway.

[BNL]

I think those samples may be slightly noisy given the newness. Doc Cop vs RB wasn't that townsided in Matrix6, while Cop wasn't that scumsided.

[MaryJoLisa]

I've said it before, but I think phase lengths should be shorter. Maybe like 5-7 RL days with 24 hour night phases. Newbie games have day talk for Mafia, so what then do they need 48 hours to discuss? Might be worth it to evaluate mafia PTs to see how many people need the full 48 hours to come to an NK consensus. I also notice that even games that are lagging often get a second wind of energy as the deadlines grow closer. Why not cut out the middleman and skip over the slower middle part of the day phase and go right from RVS to "shit we need to solve this thing before the deadline!"

I get that MS's thing is a longer phase length to accommodate people with busy schedules, and I've come around to the line of thinking that this can be good. But lots of other mafia groups have much shorter day phases and it's a big adjustment to go from 36 hours on another site to 10 RL days here. Shortening the phase lengths keeps activity up, and it keeps players engaged while still working to acclimate new players to a site that has 10-14 day phase lengths as the norm.

• Shorter days is part of why town's winrate is so high, scum in newbie games appear to need time to have a chance. Unless you want to make a setup that's a lot stronger (and likely swingier) for scum.
  
• Just because scum have daytalk doesn't mean they'll use it effectively. You can't cut nights based on that.

I guess some people join with an expectation of certain stats being in place. Makes sense. I still don't understand what makes a balanced game and I don't particularly care. -But that's just me. As I improve my game skills, I will definitely be thinking of balance. As a newbie, I just wanted to get in there and get my feet wet. I like to be engaged during the game and I find days of stagnation make it difficult for me to reengage.

Perhaps a good question to ask is whether or not newbie turnover has anything to do with their perception of game balance or if there's another factor that results in some newbies coming back for more while others quit after signups or one or two RL days in the game.

[BNL]

In some previous Newbie setup discussion I remember someone saying that Bodyguard shouldn't be in Newbie setups because using it "successfully" means dying.

Edit: See here

[Bicephalous Bob]

scum in newbie games appear to need time to have a chance

An alternative explanation is that town get demotivated and stop caring after a few days of going in circles, which brings lynch accuracy closer to random. Given that longer days should in theory only give town more information, this seems more likely. If you are correct, we should recommend townies to ignore everything a newbie says after their first week, since it will only make reads less accurate.

[Ausuka]

I haven't played 2d3 yet but from a theoretical standpoint I think a good way to balance the setup without changing it much would be to add a setup to the pool:

2 Mafia Goon, 1 Town Neapolitan, 6 Vanilla Townie

This is slightly weaker than the Cop variation, but it also nerfs the other Neapolitan setups. In those setups, the Neapolitan gets a false guilty on only one town role, who would be conftown via claim anyway.

Personally, I'm not sure to what extent this would help? Of the 4 setups that are currently shown to be townsided only one includes a neapolitan, and the nea/doc setup is currently balanced. While it would nerf A1 to some extent (cop could be a faker as well as the neapolitan) there's still enough investigative data that town would probably win, and Nea/VT would likely be scumsided. Nea/Doc doesn't seem to require readjusting based on current stats, although I guess this could change; the majority of setups would definitely still be townsided though. I think it might be better to replace 2d3.

In some previous Newbie setup discussion I remember someone saying that Bodyguard shouldn't be in Newbie setups because using it "successfully" means dying.

Edit: See here

I don't understand this? Like, if anyone felt this way when they joined they can correct me but I don't think your team winning even if you die is a very difficult concept to grasp.

I think something to consider w/ the deadlines is that, while many people might come from forum mafia sites with shorter deadlines, there are also others that are new to forum mafia and I think if we take deadlines too short we're conditioning them to something that just isn't representative of the general Mafiascum experience?

[MaryJoLisa]

I played two forum mafia games before coming to MS and the idea of winning with your team even if you die was difficult at first to wrap my head around. I understood it by the end of my first game and was trying to use it to my advantage by my third game (first game here). So even if I was confused at first, it didn't take long for me to catch on.

[popsofctown]

Watcher is more powerful than the PRs that were producing townsided winrates so it doesn't seem like a step in the right direction. IC, Motion Detector, and Bodyguard seem like good calls though. There's a version of the role I've heard of before that targets people at night in order to tell the targeted player that it is modconfirmed that they are IC, but can't get a global reveal in thread. That version might be better for the newbie queue than one of the variants with midday reveals or a day X reveal variant.
If Motion Detector is a possible combination with Bodyguard the Bodyguard might have to be made compulsive, otherwise it's possibly negative expected value to activate it.

[callforjudgement]

2d3 subsetup A3 (Cop+Doc vs RB) being highly townsided is interesting, because the same setup was scumsided (44%) as F11 subsetup C. Of course, general changes to the Newbie queue rules and playerbase may have made a big difference in the meantime. (It's interesting to note that C was the least scumsided subsetup in F11; so it may be that this subsetup is particularly townsided as newbie subsetups go, but the queue as a whole is getting more townsided independent of the setup.)

Have newbie replace-out rates dropped markedly over the last 9 years? I have a suspicion that newbies are better at town relative to scum than establlshed players are, so that would have a noticeable effect on balance in its own right. (If the shorter days are reducing replace-out rates, that'd be an easy explanation for why they're helping town.)

[Zachrulez]

2d3 subsetup A3 (Cop+Doc vs RB) being highly townsided is interesting, because the same setup was scumsided (44%) as F11 subsetup C. Of course, general changes to the Newbie queue rules and playerbase may have made a big difference in the meantime. (It's interesting to note that C was the least scumsided subsetup in F11; so it may be that this subsetup is particularly townsided as newbie subsetups go, but the queue as a whole is getting more townsided independent of the setup.)

Have newbie replace-out rates dropped markedly over the last 9 years? I have a suspicion that newbies are better at town relative to scum than establlshed players are, so that would have a noticeable effect on balance in its own right. (If the shorter days are reducing replace-out rates, that'd be an easy explanation for why they're helping town.)

The fact that they're not exactly the same setup probably plays into the difference in winrate too. Even though they're the 'same' setup the different setup possibilities lead to different approaches to the game. I also think F11 was punitive to town power roles being discovered in a way that successive setups have not been.

[RadiantCowbells]

I think towns just being better than they used to be is a big deal

[RadiantCowbells]

(so that we can know which setups to keep, not because it's in question that s lot of the setups are bunk)

Sorry, wrong.
We

won't

be able to do that. And we

shouldn't

do that.
For two reasons:
1.
Essentially, each subsetup is influenced by the general setup.
A subsetup viable in one semi-open can be horrible in another, due to claim reasons. And the other way around is also possible.
2.
If you want to wait until you have more reliable statistics for subsetups then you will have to wait years.
And if it isn't in question

that s lot of the setups are bunk

then we shouldn't wait. Especially not

years

.

I should actually respond to this post

I think I can get a lot from watching individual iterations of setups that isn't just empirical winrates.

I think that I can account for subsetup differences.

I'm not advocating waiting years. I'm advocating waiting until a few specific setups get run a few more times.

I would have preferred not using this setup at all and I believe I was the first and most visible advocate for not running this setup. That didn't happen so now I'd rather get something out of this experiment than have it be entirely wasted.

[TTTT]

we don't need a fancy grid

the Newbie Queue needs:
1) 5-6 reasonably balanced setups
2) daytalk
3) RC's scumtips^TM posted by the mod in every scum PT

[RadiantCowbells]

eh

actually I think it would be beneficial in the short term if I wrote out a guide for the newbies to playing 2d3 because there's a lot of setup specific play that can raise scum winrates whereas playing it without knowing what to do mechanically is very punishing on newbies

[Plotinus]

I agree. There should be a "how to be scum" post in the scum PT.

My main advice would be to be active and upbeat, to not be afraid to attack people, to remember that nobody knows your alignment so you could be town for all they know, and to try to work together with townies to get their incorrect scumreads lynched.

+ "Since you have a mafia doctor, that means you're in column D and that your safeclaim is fruit vendor"

What else should be included?

[Plotinus]

here's what Jingle used to post when he was a scum IC

Subject: Newbie 1498 Scum PT

Not again. Someday I'm going to get a town role in a newbie.

Red, you did pretty well last game, so I expect good things. Not too familiar with any of the player list, so we're flying blind. The advice I always post in the scum QT is:

This was the advice given to me in my first game (I was a mafia goon and I was paired up with the IC). It is still relevant so I'll just c/p it. Credit to UberNinja.

First, don't post just to break the silence, either at the beginning of the game, or after a night is over. Wait for others to do that first. The first few posts after a night is over are the most heavily scrutinized. I caught one of the scum in my last game on his first post, because of an errant comment he said. When in doubt, just wait until somebody else posts, and analyze what they said. Basically, try as hard as you can *not* to be the one sticking out of the crowd, especially *right* when people are looking for someone to scumhunt for.

Second, treat me as you would treat any other player. Don't avoid voting for me, don't avoid accusing me of something you think is scummy. This will be trickier than it sounds, especially because I'm a rather aggressive player. Similarly, don't get flustered if I start attacking you; treat it as if anyone else was attacking you and defend your honor.

Third, if someone (me or otherwise) attacks you for something, don't waste your time being defensive. Just politely explain why they're wrong (once, and *clearly*), and move on to what's important: looking for *actual* scum. The reason for this is simple: Scum subconsciously focus on their own guilt, and feel they have to defend themselves; town know they are innocent and don't put much stock in others accusations. This is why overdefensiveness is a pretty reliable scum tell in newbie games.

Fourth: This is a tricky one, and you'll have to feel it for yourself the balance for how closely you want to follow it: Follow other players' leads (including mine), but don't make it obvious that that's what you're doing. Try not to vote for the same person as someone else *because of the same reasons*; find your own reasons if you can. There are exceptions to this rule, such as when there's not much else to nitpick about them, or when the reason is so amazingly bad that you can't *not* vote them for it. For instance, last game I won as scum, there was a guy who quick-hammered *two* townies before they could claim. It was a no-brainer to vote him. And *not* voting for somebody that scummy is also bad. So like I said, you'll have to feel this one out for yourself.

Fifth: Survive until Night 1, and we can have a nice chat about everything that's transpired so far.

Good luck!

Basically, act like a townie. When it's daytime forget that I'm your scumbuddy, forget that you know more about the game's layout than everybody else, stay under the radar but not too much so that it seems like you're lurking. I may attack you, you may attack me. If something goes awfully wrong and one of us is outed (for example if I'm inspected and I turn up scum) then don't be afraid to lynch me. Oh, ignore that bit about aggressive play, I'm much more tame than the guy who wrote that. Don't be too defensive, make sure you look like you're continually trying to find scum. If someone attacks you, don't get too defensive. Any more tips that are non-scum specific will be made tomorrow during the day.

During night-time we can talk on this QT. This is where we'll discuss who to kill and why, and how we should play the following day.

All credit to Frog.

[teacher]

I posted in the other thread. Do these have different purposes? It would be helpful to localize and that one seems more active.