How much of this game is just luck?

[RadiantCowbells]

That isn't even the game I'm referring to.

I'm counting it despite my issues with it that I'm not allowed to voice.

[chennisden]

No clue what game you're referring to actually

[Firebringer]

is this a game of mafia I can count?

[Firebringer]

I think I am winning

[RadiantCowbells]

It was the 3p game with Penguin and Bittersweet where Bittersweet didn't vote before EoD.

[chennisden]

I think it should be very obvious that the game doesn't count because it's not mafia

[Oversoul]

otoh even with that restriction there are a fuckton of false positives (see: my winrate, when all i do in games is call scum obvtown and try to lynch town)

What is your winrate

[RadiantCowbells]

what is

your moms winrate

[chennisden]

otoh even with that restriction there are a fuckton of false positives (see: my winrate, when all i do in games is call scum obvtown and try to lynch town)

What is your winrate

see wiki page

[Oversoul]

otoh even with that restriction there are a fuckton of false positives (see: my winrate, when all i do in games is call scum obvtown and try to lynch town)

What is your winrate

see wiki page

I’d say you’re pretty good then

[Oversoul]

I think trying to quantify mafia is hard, but I don’t think it’s pointless. I do agree with everyone that in order to even quantify mafia you’d need a standard for play and defining a standard is the first of many difficult tasks.

Hmm. Maybe quantifying mafia is just not worth it.

[Oversoul]

what would everyone classify as good PR play?

For a cop?
For a Vig?
For a doctor?
For a jailkeeper?
For a Roleblocker?
For a tracker?
For a watcher?
For a friendly neighbor?

What about for a mason?
Or an innocent child?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Luck shouldn’t ideally be much of a factor. If it is, then there is likely problems with either the setup, playerlist or both. The better the setup/players, the less luck is a factor.

[Xtoxm]

its like poker
a lot of luck involved but with a significant skill element
sometimes you'll play better and the setup or another player being a donkey will just fuck you
but over time playing better will cause you to win games that are in the balance

[chennisden]

cop - subjective. if you clear a slot and getting town when you expected mafia shakes up the game for you, yes i think that's good play. you're going for info not scum necessarily?

vig - shoot scum

doc - protect towny people, or at least dont protect scum.

jk - very tricky since the argument is "use as doc when >1scum alive, use as cop when 1 scum alive" but this isn't a hard and fast rule

rb - rb the PRs duh

tracker - track not VTs

watcher - watcher is a shitty role so idc

fn - target someone who wont be lynched, nor NKed. (also they should be town)

mason - subjective as fuck and idk. i remember pulling a gambit where i "bussed" my mason buddy because i sucked at mafia, lynching 3 town in a row, and then going to 3p lylo with 2 mason 1 scum. lol

ic - dont be a dumbass and make people want to lynch you, despite being ic

[FakeGod]

Did you guys know that if 10 people of equal skill play endlessly a 8-town 2-scum setup that is 90 to 10 town favored, then they will all end up with around 74% win rate?

The town-scum favoredness of the setups you play directly affect your win rate, and well, if you want your win rate to go up, I suggest you play town favored setups!!

[Oversoul]

cop - subjective. if you clear a slot and getting town when you expected mafia shakes up the game for you, yes i think that's good play. you're going for info not scum necessarily?
vig - shoot scum
doc - protect towny people, or at least dont protect scum.
jk - very tricky since the argument is "use as doc when >1scum alive, use as cop when 1 scum alive" but this isn't a hard and fast rule
rb - rb the PRs duh
tracker - track not VTs
watcher - watcher is a shitty role so idc
fn - target someone who wont be lynched, nor NKed. (also they should be town)
mason - subjective as fuck and idk. i remember pulling a gambit where i "bussed" my mason buddy because i sucked at mafia, lynching 3 town in a row, and then going to 3p lylo with 2 mason 1 scum. lol
ic - dont be a dumbass and make people want to lynch you, despite being ic

I think that there are probably multiple ways to analyze any single one action.

Let's take Cop for example. Do you aim to find scum, or do you aim to limit mislynches? A guilty on scum definitely is +town, but a clear on town is also +town. What if you clear the next day's most likely lynch? Is that +town? Could it be -town because if you reveal your strong reasons to dissuade the lynch you'll get nightkilled or blocked?

Vig suffers from the same issues as cop, but with more drastic results. If you kill tomorrow's mislynch, is that +town?

I disagree with your analysis on RB/JK. I think they should always be aiming to block the kill.

Doctor should be aiming to clear a town by protecting them.

IC and Mason should aim to survive as long as possible (unclaimed if possible) so that they can POE a game. An activated IC is much more powerful than a Day 1 IC in this regard.

[chennisden]

rb usually scum no?

or is it just because i've played so much 2d3

[Firebringer]

what is

your moms winrate

best post in thread

[Persivul]

For example, is there anyone who's able to get a high enough win rate that you can say, "Okay, this person has demonstrated that there's quite a lot of skill to this game, such that they were able to get their win rate considerably above 50%."

If you look at games like chess, there are a lot of people with ratings way above and way below 1200; and a grandmaster, or a chess computer, can pretty consistently beat beginner-level players.

If everyone were really trying, then skill would be the biggest factor, and winrate would mean a lot.

But, most games have several people who are just dead weight, and that makes luck a big factor.

[Persivul]

Actually I should add to that: If everyone were really trying

according to the basic concept of the game

.