You can tell if someone will replace out based on their name
- popsofctown
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popsofctown SheSurvivor
- popsofctown
She- Survivor
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You can tell if someone will replace out based on their name
I've thought this kind of seemed like kind of maybe a trend and decided I would waste some time out of my life gathering enough data to feel like it's a statement you can say. Maybe someone else has done this before for mafiascum, I don't know. Inferences based on username are definitely not a novel concept in online gaming.
My hypothesis was usernames of newbies for which the last character is a digit are more likely to replace out than usernames for which this is not the case.
I looked at the player lists for all the newbie games going back to 1900.
If a slot was in the bottom 3 slots, it was ignored (that's where the SEs go). If the fourth to last or fifth to last slot were also marked SE, same treatment, entire row is ignored. If someone replaced into a newbie slot, I treated them as a newbie unless the mod marked their entrance SE, even in cases where I knew the player was SE. Science is about removing bias more than removing inaccuracy.
It would have been more tedious to count unique identities of players and I think if I did the correlation may have been even more dramatic, the same few ends-in-number players constituted a lot of the numbered completions, but that happens a lot for unnumbered players too, it might come out the same.
The results can be made a little more
Ends-in-alpha game completions: 320
Ends-in-alpha game replace-outs: 146
Ends-in-number game completions: 38
Ends-in-number game replace-outs: 36
Percentage of alpha players who end their involvement in a game by replacing out: 31.3%
Percentage of number players who end their involvement in a game by replacing out. 51.4%
Number players are responsible for 10.6% of game completions, but 19.8% of the replace-outs.
I don't have much reason for posting about this besides amusement and I have little to no idea why the trend trends this way. I guess it can be useful to predict a replace-out as scum but it's way less useful than the greeting tell someone did with data diving.
There are other name characteristics that might be correlated with replace-out rate or possibly other elements, like strength of play, and I would actually default to assuming other users besides myself with multi-word, not-camel-case names are a bit more likely to replace out and maybe a bit weaker than average, even though I don't replace out, and I'm massively weaker than average ."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- chennisden
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chennisden Macho Pichu
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- Macho Pichu
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- zoraster
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized Crime
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He/Him- Disorganized Crime
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- popsofctown
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popsofctown SheSurvivor
- popsofctown
She- Survivor
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zoraster wouldn't ban me for making a bad thread would he :X
If I could figure out why the numbers players don't stay, it'd be helpful to decide which of my friends to recommend mafia to, or which market to target if I ever realize my third tequila shot fantasy of draining my savings to digitally advertise mafiascum for no gain.
I think there is some kind of underlying reason, but I am skeptical of chennisden's explanation."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Datisi
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Datisi he/him, it/itsDrawn from Memory
- Datisi
he/him, it/its- Drawn from Memory
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My attempt at a serious explanation would be that people who are more likely to have their username end in numbers are either
(1) people who are in general less creative, since the name they wanted was probably taken and they ended up just adding numbers at the end instead of making up a new one, or
(2) children, based on nothing but my personal thought/bias that children are more likely to just add a bunch of numbers at the end of their usernames
And both of those are more likely to come to not enjoy mafia/end up flaking maybe?I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”~M- popsofctown
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popsofctown SheSurvivor
- popsofctown
She- Survivor
- Survivor
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(1) is applicable in other environments but unlikely here. The number of new accounts that are "wow that simple English word wasn't taken?" is through the roof. So the possibilities are, they were forced to use the extra numbers in a different context with a more crowded namespace and have stuck with it for consistency (popsofctown is an AOL instant messenger name, which was a very popular service for a time, so that's my excuse, but I could have done far better), or they assumed mafiascum is far more popular than it is and didn't even attempt their preferred username with no numbers the first time before adding numbers."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Datisi
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Datisi he/him, it/itsDrawn from Memory
- Datisi
he/him, it/its- Drawn from Memory
- Drawn from Memory
- Posts: 26008
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- Location: Croatia
Would this scenario still make (1) hold some water? Since it would mean they were less creative when they were originally creating their username in the more crowded environment.In post 5, popsofctown wrote:they were forced to use the extra numbers in a different context with a more crowded namespace and have stuck with it for consistency
Though I'll concede that I don't know the number of accounts and the number of common ~simple~ usernames that are taken, so i might be talking crap here.I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”~M- Espeonage
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Espeonage anySurvivor
- Espeonage
any- Survivor
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- Awoo
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Awoo Mafia Scum
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Not a surprising result. People with names that end in numbers tend to be more boring people (at least online).
If you want proof, just go into a twitch stream where someone is streaming online poker, and start looking at the usernames of the people at the table. 99% of those usernames would not make it through 2 days of mafia.- NorwegianboyEE
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NorwegianboyEE GLADiator
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lelIn post 8, Awoo wrote:Not a surprising result. People with names that end in numbers tend to be more boring people (at least online).
If you want proof, just go into a twitch stream where someone is streaming online poker, and start looking at the usernames of the people at the table. 99% of those usernames would not make it through 2 days of mafia.Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
- Bunno- Creature
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Creature Solve This Game
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- gobbledygook
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gobbledygook Jack of All Trades
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Names with numbers in them might be a symptom of lack of interest in the first place. The person is not taking the time to think of a good username they will have for the rest of their playing career because they don’t envision themselves playing for very long.Last edited by gobbledygook on Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:19 am, edited 1 time in total.- RadiantCowbells
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RadiantCowbells He/himSmooth Criminal
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I remember in league of legends me and a friend had a discussion about how you knew a lot of usernames were never going to be masters players and one of the things we zeroed in on was numbers. Also being named stinky egirl toe.2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.- Espeonage
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Espeonage anySurvivor
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any- Survivor
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So when Riot was testing their colours and messages psychology thing to combat toxicity, one of the messages that was eventually pulled was that people with the letter 'X' or a number in their name were generally ranked lower than people without. I don't know the exact stat and this was a few years ago but it makes sense.In post 12, RadiantCowbells wrote:I remember in league of legends me and a friend had a discussion about how you knew a lot of usernames were never going to be masters players and one of the things we zeroed in on was numbers. Also being named stinky egirl toe.Don't @ me.- Creature
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Creature Solve This Game
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- Volpe14
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Volpe14 Mafia Scum
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It seems like I'm the elephant in the room huh...
I do find this "theory" relatable though. When I search for slots to replace-in it's not hard for me to spot usernames and think "this guy is gonna flake right?" (which I often am right rather than wrong, although we can also say that the number of new players that stick around the forum isn't high). Posting style is also kind of a thing to predict who is gonna replace-out.
I think the combination of username, avatar and posting style are unexpectedly very effective to predict who is gonna get replaced or even which new players are likely to stick around. (For anecdotal evidence, I thought that Datisi would be one of the few players to stick around the site in her newbie game and funnily enough I wasn't wrong).
It's kind of a weird phenomenon to be fair...- Creature
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Creature Solve This Game
- Creature
- Solve This Game
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- Alisae
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Alisae lolbalance
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- NorwegianboyEE
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NorwegianboyEE GLADiator
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Hear hear.In post 16, Creature wrote:The key is to use an aggressive avatar
Your avatar is like an ectension of yourself and will definitely complement your playstyle. If you want to seem like the "reasonable and logical" player you’d use avatars like Popsofctown up in the topic. If you want to play super aggressively and intimidate then Creature’s might do the job. If you want to be the lovable goofball then you’d go for something like Jingle or Hectic’s avatar. I’m a bit of a mix between the "aggressive" and "funny jester" persona. So that’s why i’ve got the mix of a clown girl with an willfull expression.Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
- Bunno- Alisae
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Alisae lolbalance
- Alisae
- NorwegianboyEE
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NorwegianboyEE GLADiator
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Anime avatar users are always quick to point out other people with anime avatars.Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
- Bunno- Alisae
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Alisae lolbalance
- Alisae
- chennisden
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chennisden Macho Pichu
- chennisden
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- chennisden
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chennisden Macho Pichu
- chennisden
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- NorwegianboyEE
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NorwegianboyEE GLADiator
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Some go the "emotional manipulation" route with their avis. Like Joey_, who has a picture of a tiny kitten for gods sake.
How are you going to lynch that?Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
- Bunno - NorwegianboyEE
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