The Great Vote Count Analysis (Pre-Discussion)

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Post Post #50 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:07 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

Fuck off

Don't sully Dwight D. Eisenhower, Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe, President of the United States of America, and father of Sothes children with this refuse.
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Post Post #51 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:25 am

Post by Psyche »

qq i was gonna use that pagetop
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Post Post #52 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:26 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 47, N wrote:Image

here you go
Lmao
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Post Post #53 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:17 am

Post by Psyche »

just a few last bugs i want to fix in the votecounter before i release things
am hopeful that it's tonight
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Post Post #54 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:34 pm

Post by Psyche »

i found more to do while working on the things to do and love my life
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Post Post #55 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:30 pm

Post by schadd_ »

almost as much as you love mr. bloomberg
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Post Post #56 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:29 pm

Post by Psyche »

anyway looks like it's still at least one or two weekends away sorry guys
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Post Post #57 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:56 pm

Post by N »

In post 48, Psyche wrote:1 more day double or nothing?
how about you keep it until you finish whatever it is you promised to do here
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Post Post #58 (ISO) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:20 pm

Post by Psyche »

yeah ok
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Post Post #59 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 3:43 pm

Post by N »

psyche I am sick of seeing this avatar I release you
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Post Post #60 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 4:19 pm

Post by Psyche »

there is no release except death
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Post Post #61 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 4:30 pm

Post by N »

please
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Post Post #62 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 5:02 pm

Post by schadd_ »

it sucks bro
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Post Post #63 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 6:23 pm

Post by Blair »

I hope you can finish this, I was looking forward to seeing your findings.
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Post Post #64 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2020 12:59 am

Post by Psyche »

the coronavirus stuff put a lot of new work on my plate and i resolved to get ahead on that again before returning to this

but there was a broader problem too and it was that i was starting to do a lot of manual coding/review for a project focused on automating an otherwise overwhelmingly tedious/time-consuming workflow. i think i'll dig in again when i find a way over that hump.
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Post Post #65 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2020 8:27 am

Post by Blair »

Forgive me if this sounds naïve, but is it possible to design something to gather all the information from a mafia forum thread, identify as many variables as possible (for a machine, not AI-intensive things like recognizing when someone is identified as suspicious but not voted for), compare all these variables to final alignment flips, and find its
own
patterns? Rather than trying to test a bunch of our hypotheses?

Who knows, there could be some town correlation we never would have thought of.
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Post Post #66 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2020 7:13 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

Who is Elli? I think someone told me about a player who can call scum teams D1 with good accuracy and that their methods were unconventional. But I can't find the reference. Could this person be the mystical Elli?
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Post Post #67 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2020 7:40 pm

Post by northsidegal »

elli is "ellibereth".
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Post Post #68 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2020 7:50 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

In post 67, northsidegal wrote:elli is "ellibereth".
Yah that's the one thanks. Time to do a search, I am genuinely curious. I don't doubt that it's possible to build an algorithm to detect posting patterns that indicate scum, I'm surprised someone would do it though because it would take all of the fun out of a game that exists solely for the purpose of having fun. There are no other rewards. But maybe I don't understand what Elli is doing.
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Post Post #69 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2020 7:59 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

Hm. I randomly sampled a bunch of their threads. It was hard to find games they actually played in, but when I did, I didn't see anything unusual. Not sure what my source was telling me.
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Post Post #70 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2020 8:03 pm

Post by northsidegal »

as far as i understand it, rumors of ellibereth's program have been greatly exaggerated.

also, plenty of people cheat at online games in a way that you would probably say "would take all of the fun out of [the] game" (RAS comes to mind). i think that their motivations are, at the very least, understandable. (by the way, this isn't to imply that anything that ellibereth does is "cheating", just to say that people still do things that look like they might take actual "game" part out of a game.)

(ellibereth will also probably see this because i think every so often he searches his own name. hi elli!)

p-edit:

I'm not sure what you expected, or what was "unusual" that you thought you'd find. I can personally confirm to you that ellibereth is widely regarded as one of the most accurate town players and played exceptionally in multiple games.
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Post Post #71 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2020 11:01 pm

Post by Keychain »

Zantetsu wrote:... because it would take all of the fun out of a game that exists solely for the purpose of having fun. There are no other rewards.
I was talking to him about this the other day. One conclusion was it depends on what you find fun. Some people find fun in solving puzzles, some people like working with a team towards a common goal, some people like trying to outwit their friends, some people like socialising with the game just serving as a medium, some people like knowing all the answers, some people like circumventing rules instead of playing within them, some people like the challenge of working hard so they can win.

If you and someone else have contradictory opinions of fun in a game, it can look like they're taking the fun out of it, when they're just having a different kind of fun.
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Post Post #72 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 5:39 am

Post by Zantetsu »

In post 70, northsidegal wrote: I'm not sure what you expected, or what was "unusual" that you thought you'd find. I can personally confirm to you that ellibereth is widely regarded as one of the most accurate town players and played exceptionally in multiple games.
Thanks for your reply. The way it was described to me I expected to find posts like "The scum team is X, Y, and Z" on D1, and have it be accurate. Obviously that was an exaggeration. I don't doubt that ElliBereth is a great player and super accurate, but I don't have the energy to confirm that form myself via more than cursory inspection. Also I did not mean to imply the ElliBereth was cheating or would cheat in any way, the suggestion from earlier in the thread was that the player uses some algorithmic assistance from a computer which I have no idea if it is true and if so, I wouldn't call it cheating anyway. I would call it 'taking the fun out of the game' though. No need to even play if your goal is to create an algorithm to find scum and see it in action, you can do that on completed games without disturbing in progress games.
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Post Post #73 (ISO) » Fri May 08, 2020 4:29 am

Post by Titus »

Where scum usually vote on one unopposed town wagon
Where scum vote when the only major wagon is scum
Where scum vote with two or more major wagons as t v t
Where scum vote with two or more wagons only on scum
Where scum vote with town and scum major wagons

Note: The caveat this is harder to apply until d3 in most games due to the large amount of assumptions that must be made or odd nightkills.
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Post Post #74 (ISO) » Fri May 08, 2020 10:15 am

Post by Blair »

In post 68, Zantetsu wrote:I don't doubt that it's possible to build an algorithm to detect posting patterns that indicate scum, I'm surprised someone would do it though because it would take all of the fun out of a game that exists solely for the purpose of having fun.
What is the functional difference between "using an algorithm to detect posting patterns that indicate scum" and "using [your brain] to detect posting patterns that indicate scum?"

Which part of the process would an algorithm "take all the fun out of?" Would it still be fun if you used the algorithm to learn what patterns to look for, but applied those learned principles in live games without the algorithm? If not, why not?

Lots of players apply "tells" that they learned from other players, rather than discovering entirely on their own. Is this functionally different from learning a "tell" (which is what it would functionally be) from an algorithm? Is the difference the fear that it might be more accurate?
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