The Great Vote Count Analysis (Pre-Discussion)

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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:43 pm

Post by popsofctown »

In post 24, Krazy wrote:
In post 1, Krazy wrote:% of scum self-votes to town self-votes
% of scum first vote busses vs scum first vote town votes
oh yeah and a version of this that excludes self-hammers
pls psyche it's his cakeday
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:06 am

Post by Psyche »

ive been obsessed w the modeling question you have no idea how many shitty wallposts ive drafted about it
gotta get the data first though right
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:18 am

Post by Psyche »

Is there a possibility of some EV model at the resolution of individual votes? We compute for each post the current EV of voting each player given the gamestate and the posting player's knowledge, win condition? It seems to me that if you don't include some model of town scumhunting and scum trying to defeat their scumhunting (which either vastly complicates things or comes out to a wash or both), then it'd just end up w/ town voting mostly randomly and scum voting for the biggest existing wagon on town.

It'd be really convenient for town if this had any ground to it, as it asserts observable differences between factional voting patterns even before roles get flipped - scum almost always jumping to the largest wagon around while town don't go out of their way to sheep at all. If we find that this model doesn't track scum voting patterns well at all, then it becomes way more important to consider their strategies for appearing town, or alternatively to suppose that maybe they have some other voting strategy unconcerned w/ deceiving town. The Charisma model discussed below, for example, asserts that scum will prefer to support the most "charismatic" townie's mislynch instead of whichever mislynch seems closest.

As another approach, consider RC/MathDino's Charisma Model of Mafia.
My assumptions:
Gamestates result from predetermined charisma levels, where charisma is defined as "ability to avoid being lynched".
Town will always attempt to lynch the least charismatic (scummiest) player. Town will never no-lynch.
Scum will always attempt to kill the most charismatic (towniest) town player.
PRs will claim at L-1. If uncc'd, they become most charismatic.
Scum will fakeclaim confirmable roles at L-1 in order to out TPRs, and will be lynched if counterclaimed.
Scum are aware of the charisma list, and will counterclaim PRs if they are more charismatic and if doing so would not lose them the game.
It makes predictions about how people vote over the long run, so our hypothetical dataset can conceivably evaluate this model's gains over more simplistic EV calculations (ones that assume random voting/lynching) when it comes to predicting how games really turn out. We have to come up with some way to quantify/infer ability (or perceived ability) to avoid being lynched - perhaps we look at each player's careerlong success, perhaps we try to discover what kind of posting is associated w/ success at lynch avoidance, or something else. Each metric is its own model, and we can evaluate each one.

I'm sure both these models are too simple to not be pretty shit, but they'll be a nice start maybe.

ok now it's out of my system for a while i hope pls lord
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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:05 pm

Post by N »

In post 21, Psyche wrote:wanna do an avatar bet about it? a one month avatar if in one month's time i dont public a dataset of several hundred games, half the proposed analyses posted so far, and some basic modeling?
So I have a month to think of an avatar for you? OK
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:01 pm

Post by Psyche »

imagine ill just convert a link to #20 into an image or something
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:18 pm

Post by schadd_ »

have i ever voted correctly
free darius mccollum
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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:31 pm

Post by Detective Pikachu »

Yes! You voted for me once schadd, and I got elected!
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:36 pm

Post by Psyche »

I'd definitely like to work out some performance metrics from all this.

(Should note it does require data for most completed games, though, rather than just an well-sized sample.)
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:20 pm

Post by Psyche »

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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:06 pm

Post by Psyche »

Found a way to port markdown over to bbcode, so a lot easier to produce simply formatted posts. Tried to organize and reflect on the proposed exploratory analyses so far.

Categories of Proposed Exploratory Analyses

Here, exploratory means there's not a particular model in the foreground driving the question. Instead, we're just producing statistics over the data set.

Doable With Initial Dataset
  • % of scum self-votes to town self-votes
  • % of scum first vote busses vs scum first vote town votes
  • a version of the above that excludes self-hammers
  • % of scum L-1s that are not hammered
  • % of scum hammers on town
  • % of scum hammers on scum
  • % of town hammers on town
  • % of town hammers on scum
  • how often scum bus (2x)
  • how often there's more than one scum on a wagon (2x)
  • how often scum vote right next to each other (2x)
  • average frequency of town posts
  • average frequency of scum posts
  • average frequency of town votes
  • average frequency of scum votes
  • how often do scum vote someone, vote somewhere else, then return to the original vote, and how often town do it in contrast
  • what % of chronological time during a day phase someone was voting no one?
Potentially Sketchy Without Full Dataset

For each player X belonging to all of the set of games find out...
  • What % of lynches with their vote on them as town flip scum
  • What % of lynches with their vote on them as town flip town
  • What % of lynches with their vote on them as scum flip scum
  • What % of lynches with their vote on them as scum flip town
  • "have i ever voted correctly"
Reflections

I'd had a category for analyses that might be technically challenging, but no one really proposed any like that just yet that wasn't just modeling. We may want to rework some of these questions to appreciate complexities in the data - for example, for some questions we might want to control for the influence of PRs or other sources of information besides player intuitions that might drive voting patterns.

The analyses above should be a great foundation for work on two kinds of substantive questions.
  • Most questions will help explore whether VCA in the systematic sense of the word is possible - whether, without even considering context much, interpretable rules can be applied to public voting patterns to help discriminate town from scum. Finding any alignment-discriminative results in these would be pretty surprising and a big deal, but even then just a first step toward the holy grail.
  • The output of RC's(/Schadd's) line of requests is useful for exploring whether mafia is more a game of skill or of chance. We discussed that prospect a bit in site chat; this NYTimes article by Daniel Kahneman is super relevant.
I think though that my small dataset of a few (or even several) hundred games won't be sufficient to satisfactorily address the latter question. So I'll probably focus on the other one for this month's deadline.
Last edited by Psyche on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:17 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

the issue with studying these questions is that the system is fragile. I.e. if you find that with p = 0.01 scum votes right next to each other, the very nature of discovering this result will change how people play, and make the result irrelevant (or will quickly equilibriate to having no predictive power). That's also why (my hypothesis) that Elli's computer codes are kept hidden and he rarely if ever discusses findings. Either that or he throws everything into a huge Neural Network and doesn't ask why something happens but just gives an outcome as probability a player is mafia.
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:18 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I do find that as a matter of general principle

Reading games and seeing what scum end up doing and not doing is a far more effective method of scumhunting than trying to intellectually determine what scum would and would not post.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:03 pm

Post by Psyche »

In post 35, DrDolittle wrote:the issue with studying these questions is that the system is fragile. I.e. if you find that with p = 0.01 scum votes right next to each other, the very nature of discovering this result will change how people play, and make the result irrelevant (or will quickly equilibriate to having no predictive power). That's also why (my hypothesis) that Elli's computer codes are kept hidden and he rarely if ever discusses findings. Either that or he throws everything into a huge Neural Network and doesn't ask why something happens but just gives an outcome as probability a player is mafia.
otoh i dont really mind if discovering something changes how people play per se and in fact will be interested in studying if gameplay substantially changes when new stats are posted to this subforum.

and on the other im interested in bigger game than particular statistics
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:54 am

Post by Psyche »

have to admit
it's gonna be a tough final week
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Post Post #39 (ISO) » Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:11 pm

Post by N »

if anyone has any avatar suggestions for psyche hit me up
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Post Post #40 (ISO) » Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:27 am

Post by Ankamius »

I'm most interested in how scum lynch timings effect winrate statistically but that seems outside the scope of this(?)

As in how often town wins with the first scum lynch at full plist, 80%, etc.
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Post Post #41 (ISO) » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:38 am

Post by Psyche »

professor just delayed a assignment deadline to after spring break
get fked n
In post 40, Ankamius wrote:I'm most interested in how scum lynch timings effect winrate statistically but that seems outside the scope of this(?)

As in how often town wins with the first scum lynch at full plist, 80%, etc.
if it can be done w the dataset, it's game
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Post Post #42 (ISO) » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:13 am

Post by Slaxx »

Let me know if you need help with data visualization.
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Post Post #43 (ISO) » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:58 am

Post by Psyche »

In post 35, DrDolittle wrote:the issue with studying these questions is that the system is fragile. I.e. if you find that with p = 0.01 scum votes right next to each other, the very nature of discovering this result will change how people play, and make the result irrelevant (or will quickly equilibriate to having no predictive power). That's also why (my hypothesis) that Elli's computer codes are kept hidden and he rarely if ever discusses findings. Either that or he throws everything into a huge Neural Network and doesn't ask why something happens but just gives an outcome as probability a player is mafia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

let's test it; let's test goodhart's law
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Post Post #44 (ISO) » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:41 am

Post by Psyche »

To win my avatar bet, the analyses I'm gonna do before month's end are:

% of scum self-votes to town self-votes
% of scum hammers on town
% of scum hammers on scum
% of town hammers on town
% of town hammers on scum
average frequency of town posts
average frequency of scum posts
average frequency of town votes
average frequency of scum votes
how often scum bus

i pick these because they're especially easy to implement given my codebase. more complete/interesting analyses will come later.
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Post Post #45 (ISO) » Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:39 pm

Post by Psyche »

https://status.shadow.tech/

i cant get to my computer for the final leg :(
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Post Post #46 (ISO) » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:33 pm

Post by N »

tick tock
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Post Post #47 (ISO) » Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:44 pm

Post by N »

Image

here you go
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Post Post #48 (ISO) » Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:45 pm

Post by Psyche »

1 more day double or nothing?
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Post Post #49 (ISO) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:03 am

Post by Slaxx »

In post 47, N wrote:Image

here you go
Oof
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