Win/Loss Ratio Calculations

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Win/Loss Ratio Calculations

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:59 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

I'm working on my personal Wiki and I'm kind of at an impasse with regards to when a game should and should not count towards a Win/Loss Ratio.

Thus far I have omitted only games which were abandoned (obviously, though I am still counting them as played for Wiki purposes) and 1 game where I replaced in and was killed during the same night phase. Since I had no effect on that game I did not count it, much like a replace-out during pregame would not be counted by me.

But where is the line drawn? If I replaced out D1, should it count? Does it depend on game length, play length, personal impact?
I hate the subjectivity of this because while there are some games I replaced out of very early on in, I don't want to skew my numbers in either direction by omitting games selectively.

Does game type matter? Are Blitz Trials and Marathons to be counted?

Or as a final thought on this, perhaps it all kind of comes out in the wash after a certain number of games.
It's a work in progress but I'm up to 133 games on-site from 2015-2017, so perhaps this really won't be an issue in the end because of sheer numbers.
I'm curious from a theory standpoint regardless.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:23 pm

Post by Ircher »

My rule is that I only count games I finished in (i.e. ones that I joined and did not replace out of.) There are a few games that I have omitted mainly for being substantially different to normal mafia (like that ONUUW game Annadog ran) or not at all closed to balance (e.g.: breaking strategy that is exploited). I also omit games that aren't run to completion for obvious reasons. Anyway, the main reason I only count games I finish is for practical reasons: you have to wait for a game to finish before you can really add it to your wiki (due to the ongoing games rules as well as the incomplete info you may have before the game ends), so it's easiest to do for games you just finished. For games I am dead in or that I survived and didn't replace out of, I am able to generally know when the game ended. Also, by applying a consistent standard, everything kinda balances out. Yes, there will be those LyLo replace-ins, but there will also be those games you replaced into on Day 1 and pretty much played all the way through.

Edit: For game length, I do not track marathons due to difficulty in keeping up with them since you generally play several in a single day. (I also list them in a separate section of my wiki page.) Furthermore, the way people treat marathon games as opposed to regular games is enough to consider them to be substantially different and not an apples to apples comparison. For blitz games, I guess its less clear, but I would be inclined to count them as regular games as I'm pretty sure most people treat them as serious as regular games. Granted, I haven't really played blitzes, so I don't have a feel for them.

Edit 2: If you want a more accurate representation of your ability to scumhunt/manipulate (i.e.: dayplay skill), you might want to consider filtering by game features. While I don't spell out the specifics, my player ratings page takes this approach. Basically, I exclude games that 1) bastard 2) explicitly not guaranteed to be balanced 3) High swing and unlikely to be balanced 4) Complex mechanics (this is the most subjective one; generally, we're talking about multiple mechanical changes; most approved opens would not count as having complex mechanics) and 5) multiball (mainly because it is hard to adapt to my rating format; also, multiball really does change the style and core nature of mafia). I do keep a list of all the games I excluded and the reason(s) why so that people can see I am not being completely arbitrary about what games are included and aren't. Under this definition, pretty much all of the single ball normal and approved open setups qualify. Many large themes end up disqualified because of complex mechanics (e.g.: any of Varsoon's games) or multiball (SK counts as multiball by my definition btw), but some don't. FakeGod's Dance setups for instance would count under my criteria.

When it comes down to it, people really don't attribute much to win rate, so you can do it however you like. It really doesn't matter because unlike some sites, mafiascum encourages a more friendly less competitive atmosphere.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:24 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

Interesting. So you go by personal completion rather than appearance therewithin. Not a bad way to do it. I definitely am most uneasy about including games I replaced out of, not into because. Replacing out is due to personal reasons and leaves the game out of your hands, replacing in gives you the power to take the slot and mould it to your liking even if it is an uphill battle sometimes.

Thanks Ircher, that helps a lot! I don't think the issue of knowing when a game ends is applicable to me here as I do as much due diligence as I can to track games when I have contributed to them, even slightly. I do see your point there though.

Re: Edit1
Not counting Marathons but counting Blitzes was somewhat where I would probably draw that line as well, though I have thus far counted them in the ratio. I think attitude towards them is a larger factor than game speed here however.

Re: Edit2
See, while I appreciate this kind of overall dedication to keeping it "clean" I suppose, I think it skews what I would consider reasonable for myself. I play a lot of funky, bastard, or mechanics-heavy games and enjoy the swing many Themed games present. To not include them would be to omit a good portion of my games and I think that would be a lot falser in outcome than I would be comfortable with. I think you are correct that it makes sense from a certain mindset though, and I'll likely be checking out your page soon because I love seeing how it is done by various people.

And good thing MS is friendly, because as it stands my winrate is utter shite! Perhaps when I consider these changes and implement some it will get better. Could get worse though in all honesty!
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:42 am

Post by Umlaut »

My policy is the same as Ircher's, more or less. If was in a game and didn't replace out then it goes into the calculation, even if I replaced into a doomed slot on Day 5 and got insta-launched or something. I suspect if I gave myself leeway to decide on a case-by-case basis whether a game "really counts" or not I would be tempted to interpret the evidence in a way that favored me, so I just don't give myself that leeway.

You may be able to avoid the issue of "a lot of funky, bastard, or mechanics-heavy games" skewing your results by tabulating results separately for different classes of game (say: Open, Normal, Theme).
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:34 am

Post by Menalque »

When I was tracking win rate I was similar to Ircher and Umlaut. All games count that I finished. Only removed abandoned games and at the time I was collecting I’d never repped out of anything but I wouldn’t have counted those. I see the argument for not including games where you get NK’d before posting but I think I’d still count them.

I tracked winrate on a bunch of different metrics to see how I was doing. Overall, win rate as town in all games, win rate as scum in all games. Overall win rate in micros, minis, larges, and for micros I looked at micros overall and micros excluding newbie games as a separate category. I then looked at town/scum winrate within each smaller set.

It was, I think, the best way in that I knew my performance in larges was very bad while my performance in 13 minis was pretty exceptional.

Overall I didn’t find that it helped me become any better at the game though, and I think I’m happier not tracking it and trying to have fun in games instead of being a sweaty tryhard all the time — which is something I think stat tracking probably predisposes you towards because if you know what stats are you probably want them to be good.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:44 am

Post by Isis »

Don't. Track. Stats.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:47 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 5, Isis wrote:Don't. Track. Stats.
Lol
This is good advice tbqh. Alas.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:51 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

I also included my Hydra games in the stats, but not my Alt games (mostly to keep them semi-anonymous despite my obviousness when playing them).

I think that's reasonable.
Also I'm going to take this advice and count games I completed not ones I replaced out of (not that there are a huge number of the latter. I try to mostly replace in, not out.)

Probably not going to go as deep as splitting the types of games, though that is intriguing as a concept and might be something for a future data-analysis page!

Edit - I just removed all games I replaced out of from 2013-2017. There were 9 of them. I was town in every one. Town lost in every one.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:52 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

I count games where I didn’t end the game properly filling my slot but wasn’t actually replaced (Civ V UPick comes to mind for that)
But I also don’t track my own stats rn and haven’t for some time
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