Is everyone really that bad at mafia?

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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:33 am

Post by Ythan »

If you can't sort scum I think there's something to be said for just not getting mislaunched.
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:35 am

Post by OkaPoka »

definitely - but i dont want to encourage a playstyle that theoretically encourages you to sag off playing scum
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:48 am

Post by PokerFace »

Is there like an avg record people actually have in mafia? Assuming I have kept my wiki up to date correctly and factoring in the ONUW game I got away with in mish mash once, I have won 54 of my 80 games. So I lose 32.5% or just under 1/3 of my games. Is that good or bad? Something notable is fact that the more crazy and gimicky things you add to a game dramatically increases my likelyhood of losing if you check my wiki on that. I imagine that concept is true for everyone though. The more crazy things you can't control, the more likely you are to lose regardless of your alignment. That concept seems very accurate
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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:09 am

Post by OkaPoka »

in an absolutely perfect world i'd assume everyone would have a sub 50% winrate

i dont think avg records exist tho
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:56 am

Post by unwnd »

While mafia is considered a game I think the form of which it presents a winning state (which I would consider good, and what most people strive to get) is largely subjective and not something you can simply figure out. Think about games and how mechanically you can break them down. Sure there is a logical process to it and it requires a semblance of technical ability, but mafia is literally just all mental. The winstate is constantly changing and instead of honing your ability to understand Mafia as a concept, you are instead spending most of your time trying to understand real people who are also trying to do the same.

Ill give you an example: In a game like chess, you have a board, pieces, and two individuals trying to outwit each other within the rules of the game. Pawns can move one space up or down. Horse to E4. Bishops diagonally. Checkmate. You get the point. Mafia is effectively mental chess, and we all just pawns. In mafia, a pawn could not only move up or down, but he could move diagonal. He could move two spaces. He could not move at all. Then you have to consider why the pawn did that. Then you start putting your own pieces on the board and try to determine what's really happening and interpret the mental board. Am I making sense? The winstate and game changes every time it's played because people are dynamically changing. It's very hard to be definitively good at something with so many unknown variables, it just comes down to self-assurance and hoping that your interpretation is correct. Or if you're mafia, manipulating people and pretending your interpretations are "beneficial" to the town winstate.

As an aside, I realize what I'm saying is just implying mountainous because PRs and the like do exist. There are rules and setups that dictate behavior and keep players grounded in reality. At the end of the day, someone wins and someone loses, just like all games.
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:16 pm

Post by Ythan »

In post 26, OkaPoka wrote:definitely - but i dont want to encourage a playstyle that theoretically encourages you to sag off playing scum
Don't spread this around but I'm generally townread for reasons unrelated to my actual alignment.
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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:39 pm

Post by Ramcius »

In post 30, Ythan wrote:
In post 26, OkaPoka wrote:definitely - but i dont want to encourage a playstyle that theoretically encourages you to sag off playing scum
Don't spread this around but I'm generally townread for reasons unrelated to my actual alignment.
People way too often project their wishes instead of trying to actually read people
Tact is for liars and politicians.
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:46 pm

Post by Ythan »

In post 31, Ramcius wrote:
In post 30, Ythan wrote:
In post 26, OkaPoka wrote:definitely - but i dont want to encourage a playstyle that theoretically encourages you to sag off playing scum
Don't spread this around but I'm generally townread for reasons unrelated to my actual alignment.
People way too often project their wishes instead of trying to actually read people
I wouldn't personally make the value judgment that it's too often but it's certainly often.
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:00 am

Post by PokerFace »

Your recent dialogue is true. I caught a SK once in a lie and proved it to everyone, but I didn't want to vote them simply because they were helping the town and because they made me laugh. Despite this case that I myself contributed to, I was not on the wagon that lead to their execution. I did not vote them at all that game. I didn't want to do it. If you are my friend, I wish you well, I will want you to be town and avoid voting you, even if you are scum-aligned

There was another game where I had a doc protect and I used it on mason that I didn't know was scum. This mason was a member of one werewolves and there was also a mafia team in the game. One Mason was mafia and the other was werewolf. The werewolf was hands down the towniest player at end of day one. I do not regret my decision in the least. And I wanted that player to be town for their play and their friendship with me. He helped us execute good mafia. Mafia did go on to win that game sadly due to some people not realizing the other mason was mafia after the werewolf eventually did die. I was already dead in the game when the werewolf eventually died
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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:20 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 28, OkaPoka wrote:in an absolutely perfect world i'd assume everyone would have a sub 50% winrate

i dont think avg records exist tho
Winrates probably trend around 50% on average, with adjustment for whether scum or town wins more (since a scum win has less players winning in the end)
But I feel like personal win rate probably floats around 50-60% for any decent player. At least that’s the seeming case for
my own
Among Us record which I imagine extends to mafia winrates.
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:24 am

Post by Ythan »

Consider third parties and multiball. I think the default must be lower than 50%.
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:38 pm

Post by NotAJumbleOfNumbers »

I've been trying to compose a response and just not finding the right words for it for a solid ten minutes. Maybe a few more questions directed at me would help.
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:51 pm

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

I don’t like mountainous because i’m scum every single time and fail.
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:44 am

Post by Ranmaru »

For some reason this made me want to bring up Hito on Compromises thread again. Good read.
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