Just like the simulations

[MURDERCAT]

Since I first joined the site I've gotten pretty good at this whole coding thing. A couple times since I've been back I've found it useful to run a simulation to understand something about a setup as it's a lot easier than actually doing math. This includes more difficult EV calculations, but also things like probability of different role combinations in semi open setups.

So, if there is something you want to know about a setup, request a simulation and I will do it for you. I am trusting you all to not break ongoing games rules.

[Isis]

Can you do this one? I have a little trouble visualizing it because of the weirdness with the factional NK rolestopping and the roleblock also rolestopping, by the way the fae-pass ability is defined. So I'm not sure what the EV is.

[MURDERCAT]

Fae of Wishes

11 Townies

3 Mafia

During day 1, players may first/second/nth a motion to invite a player from outside the game to become a faerie. The moderator will contact users who are "6thed" and confirm up to three acceptances in the thread. Faeries win with the town.
Night 1, there is no factional nightkill and a random

Townie

becomes

Favoured by the Fae

. The following things are true about you if you are

Favoured by the Fae

for as long as you are

Favoured by the Fae

:

• You are eliminationproof
  
• You have daytalk and nighttalk in the Fae PT, where all three faeries also have daytalk and nighttalk
  
• You have a night action that will cause you to no longer be
  Favoured by the Fae
  and will cause your target to become
  Favoured by the Fae
  . It will fail if the target is mafia or is being visited by mafia.

The mafia are multiacting and have a factional roleblock. Faeries have no activity requirement and won't be replaced.

Assumptions

Elimination, robeblock, and kill targets are usually chosen randomly
If the favoured townie is an elim target, they will out themselves and another target will be selected
If a confirmed townie is targeted for an elim and another confirmed townie exists, all confirmed townies will out themselves and another target will be selected
If the favoured townie is outed, they will always be roleblocked and killed
If a confirmed townie is outed but the favoured townie is not, they will always be the kill target
No information is gained from night actions (because it's hard to simulate)
Scum will never fake claim (because it's hard to simulate)
The favoured townie always attempts to pass it (to create more confirmable townies)

Example Simulation 1

Day 1
Eliminating townie.
Night 1
Favoured townie chosen.
Day 2
Eliminating townie.
Night 2
Townie killed.
Pass successful.
Day 3
Eliminating townie.
Night 3
Townie killed.
Pass successful.
Day 4
Eliminating mafia.
Night 4
Townie killed.
Pass failed.
Day 5
Attempted to eliminate confirmable townie. Outted instead.
Eliminating mafia.
Night 5
Confirmed townie killed.
Pass successful.
Day 6
Eliminating mafia.
Town wins!

Example Simulation 2

Day 1
Eliminating townie.
Night 1
Favoured townie chosen.
Day 2
Eliminating townie.
Night 2
Townie killed.
Pass failed.
Day 3
Eliminating townie.
Night 3
Townie killed.
Pass successful.
Day 4
Attempted to eliminate favoured townie. Outted instead.
Eliminating townie.
Night 4
Favoured townie killed.
Day 5
Eliminating mafia.
Night 5
Former favoured townie killed.
Day 6
Eliminating townie.
Mafia wins!

Results

Simulations run = 100000
Total town wins = 33541
Expected town win percentage = ~33.5%

[Isis]

45% would be pretty ok.
"If the favoured townie is outed, they will always be roleblocked and scum will never miss a kill": the Favoured player has eliminationproof, not bulletproof, did you sim it with bulletproof? That might change the EV a lot. Eliminationproof naturally doesn't change the EV at all, it's just a quality of life thing.
Giving the fae player bulletproof is something I thought about but I think it might skew the dayplay an awful lot in town's favour.

[MURDERCAT]

Fixed! That does change things a lot, I think because the favoured townie just kind dies sometimes and then town is in something like a 10:3 ratio with no help.

[Isis]

Fixed! That does change things a lot, I think because the favoured townie just kind dies sometimes and then town is in something like a 10:3 ratio with no help.

It only becomes 10:3 mountainous if the mafia perfectly kills the Fae-touched player N2 and roleblocks the player that they attempted to pass the faeries to. Simply killing the player holding the faeries doesn't stop the chain of conftown.

Well if the faerie player is forced to claim D2 they can roleblock the faerie player and kill them (or if they have a really confident read on it and do that in the night). But that's still not 10:3 mountainous it's 10:3 with 1 activated IC at least.

35% might be a smidge low D:

[MURDERCAT]

What if you remove the roleblock and make it so that a kill leads to no pass? Then town at least isn't randomly unable to pass sometimes, but they are still punished if the favoured is outed. Maybe that is actually worse though?

[Isis]

That would just make the chance of mountainous higher, right?

[MURDERCAT]

I think a lot of the time that the favoured is killed they are also RB'd because they were outed during the day. But in the cases where they are randomly killed that is really bad

[Isis]

I appreciate the sim I think it tells me the setup has a problem

[Isis]

Actually maybe I should just use the BP version since it is 45%?

Can you sim it with BP and the roleblock has no rolestopping effect (but the kill does)?

[MURDERCAT]

Yes! I will do this tomorrow probably. This is two different sims, correct? Or both in one?

[Isis]

It was both in one ^^

[MURDERCAT]

Ok!

[MURDERCAT]

With this method you end up with 49457/100000 town wins, so an EV of about 49.5%. Not sure if that is too townsided as the favoured townie is also basically getting cop investigations now that are unaccounted for. That is one problem with the bulletproof.

[Isis]

I suspect that's too high of an EV. But I very much appreciate this

[Gamma Emerald]

What are the limits to the simulation? Can it run effective play for common PRs (such as the ones you’d see in the current newbie setup)?

[MURDERCAT]

If you give me reasonable assumptions I will account for various interactions

[Gamma Emerald]

Is there a way to manipulate roles to act in a way besides pure randomness? I have some ways to potentially approximate a reasonable PR playstyle for certain roles, though they require 1) wagons/votes to be a concrete thing within the simulation and 2) roles to be able to react to wagons/votes when selecting targets.

[MURDERCAT]

It's possible, though probably that's the sort of thing EV/simulations do a bad job of capturing. If it's a closed setup you can send me pm and I'll let you if it seems feasible

[Gamma Emerald]

Would the setup of a completed normal be okay?

[MURDERCAT]

Totally

[Jake The Wolfie]

Can you do a simulation of Grand Idea?

[MURDERCAT]

Yeah I just did. 48%

[Gamma Emerald]

What how