Just like the simulations
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Just like the simulations
Since I first joined the site I've gotten pretty good at this whole coding thing. A couple times since I've been back I've found it useful to run a simulation to understand something about a setup as it's a lot easier than actually doing math. This includes more difficult EV calculations, but also things like probability of different role combinations in semi open setups.
So, if there is something you want to know about a setup, request a simulation and I will do it for you. I am trusting you all to not break ongoing games rules.- Isis
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Can you do this one? I have a little trouble visualizing it because of the weirdness with the factional NK rolestopping and the roleblock also rolestopping, by the way the fae-pass ability is defined. So I'm not sure what the EV is."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- MURDERCAT
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Last edited by MURDERCAT on Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.- Isis
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45% would be pretty ok.
"If the favoured townie is outed, they will always be roleblocked and scum will never miss a kill": the Favoured player has eliminationproof, not bulletproof, did you sim it with bulletproof? That might change the EV a lot. Eliminationproof naturally doesn't change the EV at all, it's just a quality of life thing.
Giving the fae player bulletproof is something I thought about but I think it might skew the dayplay an awful lot in town's favour."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- MURDERCAT
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Fixed! That does change things a lot, I think because the favoured townie just kind dies sometimes and then town is in something like a 10:3 ratio with no help.- Isis
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It only becomes 10:3 mountainous if the mafia perfectly kills the Fae-touched player N2 and roleblocks the player that they attempted to pass the faeries to. Simply killing the player holding the faeries doesn't stop the chain of conftown.
Well if the faerie player is forced to claim D2 they can roleblock the faerie player and kill them (or if they have a really confident read on it and do that in the night). But that's still not 10:3 mountainous it's 10:3 with 1 activated IC at least.
35% might be a smidge low D:"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- MURDERCAT
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What if you remove the roleblock and make it so that a kill leads to no pass? Then town at least isn't randomly unable to pass sometimes, but they are still punished if the favoured is outed. Maybe that is actually worse though?- Isis
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That would just make the chance of mountainous higher, right?"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- MURDERCAT
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I think a lot of the time that the favoured is killed they are also RB'd because they were outed during the day. But in the cases where they are randomly killed that is really bad- Isis
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I appreciate the sim I think it tells me the setup has a problem"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Isis
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Actually maybe I should just use the BP version since it is 45%?
Can you sim it with BP and the roleblock has no rolestopping effect (but the kill does)?"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- MURDERCAT
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Yes! I will do this tomorrow probably. This is two different sims, correct? Or both in one?- Isis
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It was both in one ^^"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- MURDERCAT
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With this method you end up with 49457/100000 town wins, so an EV of about 49.5%. Not sure if that is too townsided as the favoured townie is also basically getting cop investigations now that are unaccounted for. That is one problem with the bulletproof.- Isis
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I suspect that's too high of an EV. But I very much appreciate this"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Gamma Emerald
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If you give me reasonable assumptions I will account for various interactions- Gamma Emerald
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Is there a way to manipulate roles to act in a way besides pure randomness? I have some ways to potentially approximate a reasonable PR playstyle for certain roles, though they require 1) wagons/votes to be a concrete thing within the simulation and 2) roles to be able to react to wagons/votes when selecting targets.<Embrace The Void>
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It's possible, though probably that's the sort of thing EV/simulations do a bad job of capturing. If it's a closed setup you can send me pm and I'll let you if it seems feasible- Gamma Emerald
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Can you do a simulation of Grand Idea?Show"I'm sorry that you put asbestos in your coffee."
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