Mafia Research Project: Scumtells and Towntells | Stage 1

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Mafia Research Project: Scumtells and Towntells | Stage 1

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:35 am

Post by DkKoba »

I want to do a research project on mafia(not for any class or anything, just out of curiousity).

Firstly - I need would like people to post in here:

a)
What are your most confident scumtells you find in others? If you want to add complexity to this statement by stating players with a certain archetype have that scumtell, etc, feel free to do so.


b)
What are your most confident towntells you find in others? Same as above in regards to complexity.


c)
Optional: What are your most confident 3p tells you find in others? Also applies to multiball settings.



If you wish to help comb through games as well, feel free to message me on discord as well!


The goal of this is to help people sort out what is a
reliable
tell vs what is just NAI nonsense.
Last edited by DkKoba on Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:38 am

Post by DkKoba »

Adding example games also helps a lot - Feel free to do so yourself here.

For me, a major driver for reading people lately is:

Maximum level of aggression hit + Complexity of thoughts.

Townies tend to have higher aggression possible as well as complex thought processes, even if completely wrong, and scum the opposite. I will personally be looking out for those as I am looking through games.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:46 am

Post by T3 »

Some towntells I find a lot is when someone gets the exact same "gut ping" as me on someone else's post. From what I've seen it's hard for scum to fake genuine emotional reactions to posts that townies also feel.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:33 pm

Post by Farren »

How big of a scope is this project?
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:56 am

Post by Bell »

1. Replacements.
2. Post length/post rate comparison. After checking for real life confounders.

That's pretty much all I've gotten.

Everything else has appeared somewhat unreliable. I've never put in the effort to sit down and just do math.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:28 am

Post by DkKoba »

In post 4, Bell wrote:1. Replacements.
2. Post length/post rate comparison. After checking for real life confounders.

That's pretty much all I've gotten.

Everything else has appeared somewhat unreliable. I've never put in the effort to sit down and just do math.
more specfic please - what kind of replacements lean town? what kind lean scum?

what post lengths/post rates lean town/scum?
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:30 am

Post by DkKoba »

In post 3, Farren wrote:How big of a scope is this project?
Not sure what you mean by this - I am simply going to be noting behaviors of players as both alignments that fit into the categories of things people list in this thread to see if these tells are indeed reliable measures to read others by taking the responses and then scanning through a few years of recent games on this site.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:49 am

Post by T3 »

I've noticred that scum usually don't frequently post.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:54 am

Post by Bell »

In post 5, DkKoba wrote:
In post 4, Bell wrote:1. Replacements.
2. Post length/post rate comparison. After checking for real life confounders.

That's pretty much all I've gotten.

Everything else has appeared somewhat unreliable. I've never put in the effort to sit down and just do math.
more specfic please - what kind of replacements lean town? what kind lean scum?

what post lengths/post rates lean town/scum?
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.07851.pdf

This may be helpful since it seems you're genuinely interested in this stuff.

1. If you control for life or personal emergencies or can reasonably rule them out Scum replace out more than town.
2. Longer post length and lower post rate when you compare a player's games side by side correlate weakly with them being scum.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:48 pm

Post by Farren »

In post 6, DkKoba wrote:Not sure what you mean by this - I am simply going to be noting behaviors of players as both alignments that fit into the categories of things people list in this thread to see if these tells are indeed reliable measures to read others by taking the responses and then scanning through a few years of recent games on this site.
This answers part of it - on this site (as opposed to other sites) and a few years of recent games (setting a timeframe).

Does "archetype" also cover player experience? Like, checking 100 games in Road to Rome might yield different results than 100 games in Theme Park.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:12 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

I feel like my best tells are so situational they wouldn't really help in something like this
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:24 pm

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

Towntells (in general): a genuine desire to solve players and figure out the game. That’s probably the #1 thing I have almost never seen scum do believably - no matter how good their scumgame supposedly is. Any player who does this is super obvtown and scum never want to be super obvtown anyway, because then they’d have suspicion on them for never eating an NK.

Conviction supported by logical progression or reasoning.

Eagerness to solve in general.

Eagerness to find strong trs.

Asking questions of other players.

Focus is wide in scope on as many players as possible

Scumtells (in general): confibiasing - more interested in driving an agenda based either on shoddy reasons or a dearth of evidence to base it on.

Unwillingness to re-evaluate takes or reads.
Reads that don’t make sense logically and/or are devoid of logical progression.

Only null or scumreads.

Awkwardness.

useless busywork that doesn’t really advance the game,

lack of conviction - or conviction that doesn’t ring true.

Excessive unwarrented concern with how they are perceived

Narrow focus, doesn’t have much genuine engagement with many players.

Will update as ideas come
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We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
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Nancy is pretty heavenly ngl
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Nancy-scum feels like a hot knife slicing through butter. Nancy-town feels like a magnifying glass in the sun glaring down at an insect.
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