Newbie 1958: Random Mafia (END)

[Farkran]

Hello everyone.

I hate RVS, so i'm going to entirely skip that phase. Allow me to introduce myself:

I am Farkran, this is my second game in this site, but i have been playing FMs a long time ago elsewhere. Last game i was a mason.

Misc info:
- i am from italy, native language italian, i'm active most of the day but i will be sleeping during CEST nighttime.
- my meta is to talk a lot and getting others to talk. I attention-whore the game hard and usually die very early. I do this both as town and scum.
- i have a hunch that i may know who to target for today's lynch, but i need to confirm it first.

[Farkran]

Hello everyone.

I hate RVS, so i'm going to entirely skip that phase. Allow me to introduce myself:

I am Farkran, this is my second game in this site, but i have been playing FMs a long time ago elsewhere. Last game i was a mason.

Misc info:
- i am from italy, native language italian, i'm active most of the day but i will be sleeping during CEST nighttime.
- my meta is to talk a lot and getting others to talk. I attention-whore the game hard and usually die very early. I do this both as town and scum.
- i have a hunch that i may know who to target for today's lynch, but i need to confirm it first.

So why are you skipping RVS this game? Because it looked like you participated in it last time. Also, how do you possibly have a Lynch target four posts in?

And if you do, why aren't you voting it? Also, if you die early as town is it due to mis-lynching or being NK'd?

VOTE: Farkran

1. I did not, check again.

2. I need to confirm something first, then i will be happy to do so.

3. Both, actually. Last time i was n1ked for being active and unpredictable. In my past games (role names may vary) i have been n1ked by a vigilante as a jester, n1ked by mafia as a mason (that time they did NOT know i was a mason, though) and mislynched d1 or d2 fairly often - including that one time when i was targeted by the mafia Framer and investigated by the town Cop - guess what, i drew attention from both sides. In my past scum games, i managed to stay alive a bit longer because i was safe from nks and i consider myself a fairly good PR sniper.

[Farkran]

1. I did not, check again.

2. I need to confirm something first, then i will be happy to do so.

3. Both, actually. Last time i was n1ked for being active and unpredictable. In my past games (role names may vary) i have been n1ked by a vigilante as a jester, n1ked by mafia as a mason (that time they did NOT know i was a mason, though) and mislynched d1 or d2 fairly often - including that one time when i was targeted by the mafia Framer and investigated by the town Cop - guess what, i drew attention from both sides. In my past scum games, i managed to stay alive a bit longer because i was safe from nks and i consider myself a fairly good PR sniper.

I can't wait to see what you are talking about in 2. I also can't possibly imagine what you would need confirmed. When do you plan on being able to let us know whether you got the confirmation you need.

Also, why did you communicate to us that you die early often?

Pedit: I'm a lawyer, so I may be a psychopath. I haven't taken the Hare yet.

And knowing she has a towngame on site means I can go check it to see if her play in general lines up with how she played that game. Not saying it's perfect, but it's better than acting like previous games don't matter.

I will tell you as soon as i know. Currently, i don't have the necessary elements to confirm my theory, and it would be detrimental to speak about it beforehand. Most likely tomorrow (almost sleeptime here).

As for my grand meta-ish introduction, last game i learned the hard way that metareading is a strong thing in this site. I used to play anon, but it's not a custom here, so i had to adapt even though i don't like to meta-analyze.

Counter-question: i have my reasons to hold back on my hunch, but what are yours for not providing your thoughts about me?

(out of game: i have a female avatar but i'm actually a guy, see the "he" in my Pronoun slot)

[Farkran]

Good morning everyone. Pretty much everyone has chimed in in some way, time to talk now.

My whole introductory post was actually a (pretty obvious) reaction test to everyone, to get out from RVS asap. Last game i got out of it by following an impossible claim of conf!scum from another player, this time i decided to try it myself. Turned out it worked here too.

Updated readings based on it:

- Billy: fairly solid townread. Questioning, analysis and tone were good. Almost too much, but i can see that coming from hyped town.

- randbo: townlean. Did quite the same thing as billy on me, but tone is slightly worse - i could see it as hastily looking for lynchbait rather than actually questioning. Didn't vote though, given the current situation i'd say that is a very small towncred (could've jumped on the wagon instead). That, plus emotion and activity make it a townlean.

- ofrhz: townlean/null. 29 and 30 look good, doesn't seem as committed as the others though.

- Micc: null/scumlean. My reaction test should have been kinda obvious to a SE player. However, i didn't lead off the game at all, i got us out of the RVS and i'm kinda proud of that. You should too, yet your tone didn't look like that. I do agree about billy though - do you have any read on anyone else?

- Pine: Slight scumlean. Greeting post (this is NAI to me), then he disappeared completely (this is SL). Readings please.

- Kerset: stronger scumlean. He learned about our discussion as early as post 14, yet he answered with some irrelevant question instead. Then disappeared.

- lilliaire & Evenstar: didn't react at all, as if they didn't read the whole first page. However, this couple of players currently give me the vibe of "we're two friends who decided to play fm, please don't harass lilliaire as this is her very first time", which could be NAI at the moment. However, evenstar says he's not a new player AND claims VT. Explain?

VOTE: Kerset i do want to hear more from you.

[Farkran]

I decided to remain silent because I saw very interesting wagon on you(Farkan). I did not agree that your actions were suspicious so i wanted to see if anyone is going to join this. Anyone who would join such opportunistic wagon would be my main scum lead.

Not an entirely bad answer. But why did you even post at all, then? Also, what did you get from analyzing the interesting wagon on me?

I appreciate Farkran’s urgency for getting out of RVS as that’s something I also feel is important from a theory standpoint. Usually you have to be willing to push a pretty shallow case on page 1 to make it happen. Throwing out shallow reads on the whole playerlist is kind of excessive.

Feels like he cares more about getting Town credit for moving the game along than actually moving the game along.

Stripping his read list down to the bare bones is basically the activity overview sorted from most to least posts...which I don’t find to be especially alignment indicative.

As opposed to what? Not doing anything to get the game moving? Why don't you give your reads too instead, so we can read what you think about the game status, and actually move the game along? If your analysis of my read is that i just wrote a post count, i'd say you're currently the only active player that hasn't provided his own content besides SLing me for... moving past the RVS stage?

VOTE: micc, we may be getting somewhere.

[Farkran]

I have one read, and I gave it. Having eight reads at this stage is unnatural and it’s clear that you’ve contrived them from something that I don’t believe to be a good indicator of alignment - activity in the first 12 hours of day 1. You’re doing this either because you want to move from RVS quickly (Town motivated) or because you want to appear motivated to move from RVS quickly (scum motivated). It looks more like the second one to me right now, but hey it’s page two, my read is shallow too so maybe it moves by the time we get to page three.

I don’t really appreciate you misrepresenting my play by saying my only content is pushing you. I’ve pretty clearly put out questions aimed at interacting with both Evenstar and Kerset. What’s your angle on that?

I genuinely hate RVS. It's a waste of time, i never vote with an insignificant motive in mind (aka random, or "i don't like your avatar"). I literally don't enjoy it, so you may see me doing it as scum in future games. My point is that to get out of RVS you need to do *something*. I triggered people's thoughts, and offered my own. Surely you (and everyone else) have been thinking something about the discussion so far, yet you're refraining from outing them, instead complaining about the one who did and accusing him of "not actually moving the game along".

Surely the lurkers will have to speak too, but currently this is my highest scumguess. Your interaction with Evenstar and Kerset looks as shallow as you're accusing my readings of.

[Farkran]

We're not even 12 hours into day 1. This game has a 10 day deadline. Before you shade Pine for not posting after the greeting do you know that he was posting in other games?

No, he has not.

Also this is one of the things i'm most struggling with in this site - people always seem to be lurking way more than what i am used to. My past games had a day deadline of 48h, ofc everyone was so much more active than here. I still have an hard time shaking off the scum vibes that i get from lurkers, but i will be giving them a chance to speak. Your post comes off as defending him for no reason though. What's your read on him?

[Farkran]

He had one post which was the first in game. So I have no read at all on him.

Saying I'm defending him seems a bit strong, Im just skeptical of the amount of shade you've been throwing around in your early posts. In that reads list, you were even shading your townreads and leans. I get that the game is in an early state so the reads will be fluid, but you had about three townleans/reads and three scumleans/reads. You shaded each of your townleans/reads.

Given that you were pretty non-committal with respect to your reads, what's the point in throwing them out there?

Questioning is not the same as shading. Reads are not strong at this point, but i start getting vibes from other players. You (billy) look townsided so far - the read is consistent, even though you "defended" pine which amounts to a minor scumcred at this point of the game, it's something i take note of, not something i accuse you of.

I have been prodding kerset and i got a semi-decent answer. I still scumlean him, but now it's on the null side.

Micc on the other hand is coming off not so much pro-town to me, his tone wasn't as good.

[Farkran]

For someone who claims to be doing reaction tests, you seem startlingly unobservant. My avatar, gender marker, and the fact that I said my name was

Evangeline

really ought to have tipped you off to the fact I'm a girl.

And no, I didn't read the whole first page. Because you're obviously trying to force RVS to an abrupt end, and that's dangerous. RVS is useful, because it's where the scum have to confront their own TMI square in the face and try their best to pretend they know nothing.

As for my claim, I did it because:
1: Fuck the rules.
2: It's an obvious falseclaim and therefore provides no actual information.
3: But it sure is going to get people reacting to it.

I mislike your reaction to it: you seem to be using it to attack my stated experience level, compared to Micc, who simply says "That ain't site meta, why are you doin that?"

I think right now I'll drop my vote onto you.

VOTE: Farkran

If you hate RVS, post a survey next time.

This is also interesting. You are jumping on my wagon on the account of me mistyping an S in your personal pronoun, you claim thst RVS is useful when it obviously is not - RVS is a complete waste of time and its only purpose is to get out of it and start triggering actual interactions between people instead of trololol votes.

Last but not least, your VT claim was fake? What the hell? What were you trying to accomplish?

[Farkran]

Allow me to clarify: Vanilla Town is an obvious falseclaim from

anyone

, because scum don't want to claim power roles that could be CC'd, and power roles don't want to claim them and be shot. As such, stating that I'm Vanilla Town gives zero information, because everyone in the game ought to be playing as if they're Vanilla Town.

I'm not saying my claim is fake. I'm saying nobody has any reason to believe it, and therefore I might as well not have said anything.

Also,

you're

the one who says I'm scumreading you based on you getting my gender wrong. Nice job understating my case.

You're scummy because:

1: You're forcing RVS to die too early. Scum's tone is most likely to be off in RVS, before they can sheep others' reads and town consensus has not yet formed.
2: You're failing to actually observe after claiming you're doing a reaction test.
3: Your immediate reaction was "Is Evenstar lying about her experience level?", throwing shade.
4: At this point, you're taking my claim as an excuse to try and rolefish me.
5: You're not engaging with my argument and trying to change my mind; you're saying I'm obviously wrong rather than considering my case for why RVS is useful.
6: You're immediately shading Micc after I said they reacted better than you - trying to get me to reconsider a good read?
7: And, as Billy has said, your reads are pretty meh. Why bother when you had this other whole gambit going?

I have this sense of deja-vu from when i have called out for using backward logic in my last game. Let's take a step back and go through our exchange again:

1. I strongly disagree with your opinion. During RVS scum is free to waste town time by not providing actual content. Scum want to stay in RVS as long as possible because it's a safe place where you don't generate interactions between players and you are not forced to explain your thoughts to other people - you can just say "hey, it's RVS fun baby, i do not need to explain myself".
2. Sorry, but player genders are not my main subject of observation. I corrected billy because he has been calling me a she in several posts, and i explicitly premised it was an

out of game note

which is entirely NAI. I missed an S in my single post regarding you, do you really think this is relevant?
3. Er, no. I wasn't judging your experience level or throwing shade at you - you made a weird play and in my first readings i asked you why, because it did not make any sense to me. Then you said it was fake, which makes even less sense, except for the fact that you tried to justify it as "reaction testing". For what purpose? Did you want to move past the RVS too?
4. Again, no. You should not have claimed, is all. Do not claim unless necessary.
5. See point 1 and 3. Getting out of RVS is a good thing. Having a >0 amount of info is a good thing.
6. I said i was scumleaning Micc before you even answered me. Check again.
7. What are your reads then?

Conclusion: this looks like TvT. Your reasoning is misplaced, but your tone and emotion look genuinely townish. Your vote is on the aggressive side given the current size of the wagon and that does look a bit scummy. Again, this is me taking notes, not "casting shade" on you. Currently you are a null/townlean.

[Farkran]

Skimming the thread, Micc strikes me as Town, soft Town on Billy, nothing reliable on anyone else. Farkran’s on some sort of designer uppers, but I don’t know if that’s alignment indicative.

I usually have a big introduction post in Newbie games, I might get around to digging it up after work.

Please explain how Micc is town enough to you to give him an actual reading as opposed to "having nothing reliable on anyone else"?

[Farkran]

Micc is engaged in actual gamesolving, making an effort to sort people on reliable information rather than the kneejerk surface-level stuff you’re doing.

Saying nothing in a lot of words is still saying nothing.

Please elaborate about how he is engaged in actual gamesolving. You're going as far as giving a townlean/townread of him, while i assume you are putting me below the null line based on this post (= at least scumlean me) based on our posts, yet what he has been doing so far is basically just pushing me for getting out of the RVS (same as Evenstar, but more on that later). I do find that a scummy move. I am aware of his questioning to Kestar, but it's not like scum doesn't do that, especially when you're looking at a possible SE!scum. His tone is not town, more like "hey, i'm doing something useful, but i am not providing any content to support it".

[Farkran]

1: I disagree; in my experience, good scum tend to push to get out of RVS fast, trying to seize control of the town's agenda and manufacture consensus about reads, so as to generate early MLs.
2: I think it's worth noting that you're maybe not making as detailed of examinations as you say (or think) you are.
3: You specifically mentioned my experience level in that context. Why was it relevant?
4: Then why are you calling my claim fake and continuing to push me on it? Why is my role so important to you, especially if you think I'm Town?
5: I agree that getting out of RVS is a good thing long-term, but you tried to force it in the second post of the game. That speaks to trying to grab hold of the Town's agenda, which is scummy.
6: Fair enough.
8: Now you're calling this a TvT fight, despite saying my reasoning is bad. If you think I'm town, why aren't you arguing your case rather than trying to disengage?

This reads to me like a pocket attempt. I'm going to stay here.

As for 7:

Ofrhz: Towny entrance, but then goes on to explicitly say his first townread in a stilted and questionable manner. Also asks others to generate content rather than making it himself. Scum? Don't think I want to lynch them today given that they're an SE and know what they're doing, but I definitely expect to see more from them later.

Billy: Looking very towny based on tone and degree of content. Good aggressive questioning of others. Not lynching today, that's for sure.

Farkran: Scummy for all the reasons I've given above.

Randbo: Extremely hostile & toxic player, might be worth lynching just for gamestate reasons. Pressures Farkran but does not vote. Looks scummy, but this could be town anger. Overall though, I see little reason not to lynch them.

Kerset: Seems to be ESL. An observational/analytical player. I like their tone and content so far; I need time and more posts to form a stronger read here.

Micc: I'm getting experienced-player vibes here. Hasn't responded to my response to them yet; my read's largely contingent on their reactions there. I feel that they've done both scummy and towny things so far, and I need a better sense of how they play in order to parse what's playstyle and what's AI.

Lilliare: Shy as always. Really hoping to see more content and not just have her lurk through the game.

Pine: Good Town tone. I like their reads on Farkran, but I'm also getting experienced-player vibes and therefore I'm not trusting that read just yet. Not aligned with Farkran, which makes me more inclined to a Fark lynch; not really feeling like Pine ought to be the one dunked out of that pair.

See? Now we got some content that looks genuine. Even though i strongly disagree with your strategy and your readings of Pine and Randbo, your tone does not seem coming from scum, rather from town taking my attacks on a personal level instead of applying them to the game context. You're getting emotional, which amounts to town points to me. It happened in my last game too, turned out that the guy was town, i'm inclined to believe this is the same situation.

[Farkran]

No one’s lurking here. Our deadline is 10 days not 48 hours. It’s that long specifically so people can go 24 hours between posts and still keep up. If that’s not the style of game you want to play, then I’m sorry but this site doesn’t host the games you’re looking for very often.

I can afford to have a drawn out interaction with Evenstar or Kerset that starts off shallow and eventually gets meaningful. There’s time for forming a real read such that I don’t need to force myself to put something down for the sake of having something.

Ok, so far you have been complaning about:

1. Getting out of RVS quickly
2. Providing actual content (i.e. my read list) while not offering your own, claiming that "it's too early and it looks forcefully made up"
3. Trying to get people to post more by pulling inactive players out of their comfort zone

I'd like to hear actual content about how you can have a scumread of me while at the same time refusing to give reads on anyone else. It is indeed early d1, but the more i read, the more it looks like you are not paying attention to your surroundings. Feel free to build a case against me, i'd like to hear your reasoning.

[Farkran]

Feel free to build a case against me, i'd like to hear your reasoning.

If I told you I jumped on the first thing I could justify pushing (you) specifically for the purpose of moving the game from RVS, would accept that as an answer? Would you then be willing to admit that at least half the reads you made in that first list were complete BS...but nonetheless BS made for the same purpose as my scum read on you?

Like, you seem to have very similar opinions about theory as I do, but I think your execution kinda sucks. Yeah, pushing shallow reads early is good for Town as it moves the game from RSV, but you still gotta be pushing something that is at least somewhat reasonable, and I think most of your page 2 reads are unreasonable. I don’t know what it means for your alignment yet, but I’ll get there eventually, and when I do I’ll be sure to let you know.

I can agree with the first sentence, but i can't shake off the feeling that you picked me as your target whereas you could push behaviors scummier than mine (albeit shallow) such as what Kerset initially did, or Pine. Why did you pick me out of all players, despite having "similar opinions"? Why are you going against Kerset now of all times?

I would definitely not say my readings were complete BS. I triggered reactions, and i outed my thought processes about said reactions. If you check again, i said that the only

fairly solid

town read was Billy, which a lot of people agreed with - including you. All my other reads were shallow leans, which are evolving into something more concrete and solid. I will update them regularly - something everyone should do, rather than keeping to themselves.

[Farkran]

@Farkran:

What's your opinion on Kerset?

@Kerset:

What's your opinion on Farkran?

Currently null. My original scumlean of him has been somewhat cleared by his 32. I'm wary of him and i am not against pushing him today, but i'd rather stay on my current vote, who coincidentally joined a wagon against him. I shall see where it leads.

pedit: was writing before micc unvoted.

[Farkran]

Care to elaborate on why you think Farkran's scum?

This list seems a bit sheepy of me, tbqh.

I do agree.

[Farkran]

I guess, I'll hold you to everything in the second paragraph? I don't have a problem with any of it from a theory standpoint, but I highly doubt any of it is outside your scum range, so I'm interested to see where your reads develop to.

Fear not, i'll provide updated readings before going to sleep.

Page 3
Im shipping Farkran + Kerset.

Interesting take. Say me and kerset are a scum team, would that match with your current reading of other people? Specifically, i'd like to hear your opinion of Lilliaire, Pine and Micc.

[Farkran]

So, updated readings:

- Billy: can't say we agree on everything but he's still my highest townread so far. Tone and content are good, although possibly misplaced.

- Evenstar: after our exchange i'd say her content and tone got better. Townlean.

- Kerset: this guy has made the most posts i can agree with, but... his tone is actually dodge-y. Introduction was bad, exchange with micc was good. Him defending me feels weird. I'd say above null, less than townlean.

- randbo: i profiled him as paranoid town, but on the dangerous side - still above - of null. Overly aggressive with words but not with votes (often town-indicative), kinda disagree on reasoning.

- ofrhz: almost no content at all. I don't like this, but i have no reason to say less than null. I do want to hear more of what he thinks about the current game status.

- Pine: little and not so very good content. Still below null to me, didn't like his page 2 posts, didn't like his interactions.

- Micc: scumlean. I do not agree with his motives for pushing me, tone rings hollow and LAMIST-originated. I don't know why people would think of that as towncred, but can't be in team with more than 1 scum, so i might want to review my thoughts from town!micc pov first. I've learned my lesson about universally townread SEs after playing against scum!skitter...

- lilliaire: stronger scumlean. That post 75 was... bad. In so many ways.

Now, i know for a fact that i must be wrong on at least 1 of my SL/SRs. For the time being, i can see lilliaire as newb!scum more than i can currently see Pine or Micc as SE!scum.

VOTE: lilliaire

@everyone: i get that a lot of you are SLing me for having a readlist early. I don't care much about the individual votes against me (not enough to start VCA), rather i'm curious of why you all are so reluctant to post readlists. I know it's early. So what? They are not set in stone, you're free to change your mind at any time, assuming you have reasons to do so and/or back them up with actions. This is called progression. Progression is something we use in a mafia game to create interactions and discussions to talk about. Why would you NOT do that as early as possible, even if you're just outing your first impressions?

I'm going to bed for today, g'night everyone.

[Farkran]

@ofrhz hey, we miss you.

We'd all like to hear some of your thoughts about the current game status, would you like to provide some?

[Farkran]

Sorry, i was at my parents'.

Finally some good content from ofrhz. Kerset post is very interesting. Votecount is also peculiar. i'll reply in a few mins.

[Farkran]

I got some sleep and I ready to give my readings.
Farkran - He really wants to get some content out of people. It might look provocative but his intentions seems to be genuine.
Evenstar - Her thoughts seems to be very independent. She tries to make opinions, which are not based on other people reads. I wish, I could see other games to state, whenever this is her behavior or dedicated playstyle. Null for now.

@Micc: What's your opinion re: Farkran's trying to brush me off with "this fight is T/T, you're getting overly emotional"? Is this T/T, T/W, W/T, or W/W in your opinon? Rank these in order of likelihood, please.

I don't understand this "T/T, T/W, W/T, W/W". I can't even find this in wiki.
Billy - He likes to call out people for shading, even that most of his posts are shadings itself. He has some reasoning but never use it to pull back. Slight scum lean
Micc - He seems to be misguided town. Even that i disagree with this reads, i feel that he is trying to contribute to town with his work.
Pine - He creates no content. All of his posts are just nodding to other people. I am looking forward for his explanations (#89)
VOTE: Pine
Randbo - Lack of content, his read about Pine feels random. The rest of my though is in #99
ofrhz, lilliaire - null

I agree with pretty much half of this, which is... a weird place to put you in my eyes. I still think you are on the town side of null, but i'm taking note of the possibility of you being scum trying to be town, but having an hard time to PoE your scumguesses. I think it is time to test your reasoning.

Please elaborate more in detail:

1. Why would you read Evenstar as null? Independent thought is almost always a strong towntell. I didn't notice it at first, i just had gut feeling about tone and content from her, but you're right, she... does not seem to care about other people's views, which is town indicative. I think i am confident enough to place her in my current town bloc alongside Billy.

2. Speaking of null reads, i find it VERY weird that you would put Lilliaire in the same spot as Evenstar. The difference in content quantity is huge, but so is the difference in content quality. Lilli's readlist is sheeping, opportunistic, and you just don't see a newb!town joining a wagon so aggressively.

I do agree with you about Pine, and i am also reconsidering Micc. SEs are just... kinda harder to sort out, even just because they're confident in their scum mafia experience. It's like they can fool around with us freely - not necessarily in a bad OR scummy sense - but that's what happens in newbie games.

[Farkran]

This may just because this game is still taking off, but I've noticed that there's a lot of posting readslists so far.

That isn't very common on this site. Posting readslists usually happens if

1) someone is replacing in or catching up after having been away from the game for a while, or
2) someone is under pressure

If you want to know someone's read on a

specific

person or people, then you can and should ask them.
If you have a read on someone you'd like to share, then by all means post it. Especially if your read on someone has changed.

There are a few benefits to doing it this way -

1) it lets everyone else see what specific reads you're personally interested in and what reads you think are important enough to share
2) more directly engaging and distills info
3) reading long readslists is pretty boring imo and this is probably why we don't do it on this site all that often

I disagree with this post. While it is true that asking specific questions or posting specific analysis is better than nothing, a readlist helps both 1. the writer, recapping his town/scum structure of the game, 2. the readers, who do not have to look through pages of posts to learn what is your current read of a specific player. Sure, they could ask you, but it's way easier to save/take note of your latest readlist. OR they can do both and then make a comparison of your reads (aka progression analysis).

I think the only valid reason for not using the readlist system is being lazy - but i don't find this to be necessarily SCUMMY. Just sub-optimal. It may be boring and time consuming, but in most cases it would be sufficient to format it like this:

Player A - townread
Player B - townlean
Player C, D, E - null
Player F - scumlean

So, after i read that, i can ask you to elaborate on specific entries such as "why do you scumlean player F"?

[Farkran]

Aight

Pine have been posting very safely.
>Read town (Micc and BP) the most active people at that time
>Gives little to no explanation behind his reads and vote.
Just cursing under the radar at this point.

Null: Lilliaire and ofrhz

Kerset (lean town) & Farkan(nullish)
Farkran made a bad claim in his post. Farkran reads are ass pull. What people went after him for are fair and reasonable. I do like how Kerset gave an alternative view point of what is being narrated at that time. Kerset could just have sit back and let the pressure build on Farkran continue, or even let it build up if Kerset is a scum.

What bad claim are you talking about?

Also now this is like the 3rd time you're shading me but not taking -ANY- action at all. Can you elaborate a bit more on your reasoning and actually do something or are you just going to fence-sit the whole game?

[Farkran]

Fence-sit? When did i ever said that i find you scummy?

You've never literally called me scummy, but you have been throwing shade towards me - a lot - and if post 95 is not a SR of me and Kerset, i don't know what it is. Did you reconsider that? Why?

[Farkran]

I'm not too clear on the rules about talking about other games that are currently being hosted on mafiascum.

Hello again, lilliaire.

Long story short: you can talk freely about games that have ended, but you are forbidden to say anything about game that haven't.

Detailed rules for ongoing games discussion: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=30909
Full forum rules: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=6470

[Farkran]

@Frakan You hoard so much attention so early and for a long time. Of course many people are reacted to u, and consequently people are reacting to how other reacted about u. I cant talk about Kerset with u when Kerset post was about u.

I don't care about rudeness - i am usually aggressive myself, i know it can feel bad but as long as you don't actually insult me, i'm ok with that. I know i am an attention whore and i'm fine with that.

What do you mean you can't talk about Kerset with me? Talk about Kerset with anyone else. I'll read anyways.


@lilliaire: take your time but provide some content please. I'm waiting for you to elaborate on your post 75. It feels sheepy. And opportunistic. And it's missing your reads of 4 other people.

[Farkran]

Spoiler: Micc and Kerset

Continuing this thought:

@Kerset - If being the third (or fourth or fifth) person on a wagon is indicative of scum, how do you expect the town to achieve a lynch before the end of the Day phase? Surely at some point townies need to be a part of a wagon right?

Keep in mind that i was talking about particular case: Page 1, Farkran who was only about to reveal his opinion. #12 #21 should give you better look at the context. #32 and #40 proves that i was specifically talking about Page 1 situation, not universal rule.

So where's the magic line? When does it become acceptable for townies to be the third/fourth/fifth person on a wagon?

Continuing this thought:

@Kerset - If being the third (or fourth or fifth) person on a wagon is indicative of scum, how do you expect the town to achieve a lynch before the end of the Day phase? Surely at some point townies need to be a part of a wagon right?

Keep in mind that i was talking about particular case: Page 1, Farkran who was only about to reveal his opinion. #12 #21 should give you better look at the context. #32 and #40 proves that i was specifically talking about Page 1 situation, not universal rule.

So where's the magic line? When does it become acceptable for townies to be the third/fourth/fifth person on a wagon?

From now on. Here i go:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I hope you enjoy this line. I used special magical powder to make it.

I am staring to doubt that I can satisfy you with any answer at all. Should i make mathematical formula? Should have give you case study with 10 examples? Maybe find mafia theory in wiki that covers this topic? You clearly won't accept my "take common sense" idea. There is no way i just tell you Xth day because such day doesn't exist. Best i can say is: when defendant is getting cornered and his incorrect statement comes from solidified data.

From now on. Here i go:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I hope you enjoy this line. I used special magical powder to make it.

I am staring to doubt that I can satisfy you with any answer at all. Should i make mathematical formula? Should have give you case study with 10 examples? Maybe find mafia theory in wiki that covers this topic? You clearly won't accept my "take common sense" idea. There is no way i just tell you Xth day because such day doesn't exist. Best i can say is: when defendant is getting cornered and his incorrect statement comes from solidified data.

Sorry, I'm pushing this line of questioning because I think your take on mafia theory is not great, I'd like to lead to you why I think that. I'll let it go from here, but don't think I won't try to get the last word in:

If you've got a mafia theory article queued up that covers why its ok for townies to try pushing defendants into a corner after your magical powder line, but not on page 1, I'll gladly read it. To me, trying to push people into the corner from the get-go is an excellent way to 1) get a read on them and 2) get the game rolling, which are things that I find to be town motivated. I don't think that those actions are scum motivated as you claim because no scum player realistically expects a page 1 wagon is going all the way to a lynch. As you said yourself a lynch that early would be dumb for town and dumb for any scum who hammered it.

predits: didnt' read them

This exchange does not look very good on either side. Content produced is not useful, looks like they are both trying to "teach" the other how to play, pointlessly stating the obvious to increase their post count. I'd say no more than 1 scum in {Micc, Kerset} is plausible. However, it also reminds me -a lot- of my exchange with teacher in my last game which was entirely TvT. I am having issues because of this.

[Farkran]

My other issues are that i am currently having a readlist consisting in at least 3 scumleans.

Lilliaire is refusing to produce ANY content.
IF there is a scum in {Micc, Kerset}, i think it's probably Micc. Kerset's reasoning looks misplaced rather than scummy.
Randbo's progression is NOT good, as ofrhz points out in 175. 1 scum in {randbo, ofrhz} is also plausible but i strongly lean on randbo here.
Pine's game development is NOT good, refusing to produce content besides some sheepy, opportunistic posts.

I think my best chances are here at this point

VOTE: Pine

Let's get a L-1 going on. I'm wary about both Micc and Kerset being on it, but i'd say there's a solid chance they are TvT (>50%), this wagon is all town.

[Farkran]

You’re staling the game out pine. Either catch up or claim in your next post.

Nonsense. I’m not stalling the game, this nonsense rush to judgment and refusal to consider other options is stalling it out.

Seriously, Micc, how often have you ever seen what is effectively a D1 lurker lynch go through on scum? This is gleefully going after the dangerous experienced player while they’re distracted. I’m not positive who the scum is on this wagon, but I have time this morning to find out.

Looking forward to it.

I could read this post as "leave me alone and look elsewhere for no reason, please".

[Farkran]

Also i've been re-reading the thread from every POV i could, especially Micc.

I think i can buy a pine/randbo solve given their progression - pine wouldn't allow himself to be caught with bad progression but randbo certainly did - see posts 98 vs 133 and 136 when literally nothing happened between the two.

@Pine, what's your read on randbo?

@Micc, what's your read on randbo?

[Farkran]

@Frakan You hoard so much attention so early and for a long time. Of course many people are reacted to u, and consequently people are reacting to how other reacted about u. I cant talk about Kerset with u when Kerset post was about u.

I don't care about rudeness - i am usually aggressive myself, i know it can feel bad but as long as you don't actually insult me, i'm ok with that. I know i am an attention whore and i'm fine with that.

What do you mean you can't talk about Kerset with me? Talk about Kerset with anyone else. I'll read anyways.


@lilliaire: take your time but provide some content please. I'm waiting for you to elaborate on your post 75. It feels sheepy. And opportunistic. And it's missing your reads of 4 other people.

Poke.

[Farkran]

I’d say at least two times for every nine tries.

If you’re here to play, then prove it I guess? I have Evenstar and Billy in my town group, Farkran and Kerset in my not wanting to lynch today group with ofrhz skirting on the outside. That leaves the lurky part of the game left to sort, and we’re starting with you.

Predit: yeah pretty much. With some “my experience is valuable, trust me” thrown in.
With respect to randbo, I don’t feel like I have one.

Let's see if i can talk your language.

I too have Evenstar and Billy in my town group, Kerset and ofrhz in my not wanting to lynch today group (ofrhz's content is small but looks *solid* so far) and a pending reconsideration of you. Everyone else i am currently scumleaning or worse and i am willing to lynch any, with preference given to pine and randbo.

[Farkran]

You’re staling the game out pine. Either catch up or claim in your next post.

Spicy. Unlikely that Micc and Pine are both wolves given this kind of pressure on an L-1 Pine. Makes me further interested in Pine's flip.

Pine's response is not reassuring: the fact that they're calling all the votes on them bad

except Micc's

speaks volumes; to me that sounds like a scum SE trying to bully their way out of being lynched.

@Pine: If my reasons for voting you are bad, please share with the class

why

they're bad. This is proof by blatant assertion.

Billy's vote on Randbo also smells good to me. I think they're town.

Knowing Lilliaire, I would call their current reclusiveness NAI, not scummy: if anything it makes me lean them town, because if they knew who scum were they wouldn't have to stress about being wrong, and that would help them post.

Reads update:
Kerset slightly weird but likely town.
Micc null. Skillful enough, and unusual in their play enough, that I don't have a strong read yet. Hoping to get more from this interaction with Pine.
Farkran I'm feeling much better about, but I'm not locking them town yet.
Ohrfhz isn't someone I'm willing to lynch today, but IMO still has >rand chance to be scum.
Billy is town, not reconsidering till like D3/4.
Lily slight townlean, but could be bias 'cause I wanna be on her team. Never lynching her today, if only to try and help her find her feet.
Randbo: I don't know. TWTBAW? It's hard to tell what's scum and what's just being BaM. Either way I'm still cool with a lynch, since it's likely +EV to town even if he's ours. He's never being shot in the night and he needs solving.
Pine: Their (lack of) defense so far just makes themlook worse to me. I'm cool with a lynch here today as well.

This post is... worrying me, in the same way i said i was worried about Kerset (i'm on mobile, forgive me for not quoting directly). I agree with half of it, the other half is weird.

I agree on the Micc vs Pine part, if one is scum, the other is not. I also agree that Billy's vote on randbo is valuably placed.

1. Why would you scumlean ofrhz? I assume that >rand chance to be scum means a scumlean. However, if randbo is scum, ofrhz is almost never scum. Scum rarely start bussing wagons, they are either forced onto them, or they try a desperate defense of their partner.
2. I feel your opinion of lilliaire is either biased (because you're friends) or purposefully lenient of her opportunistic vote as 3rd slot on wagon (right after the previous 3rd left, which would make her almost 4th slot). This is not a null move to me, nor it is townleaning. I'd like her to explain, but she refuses to do so. A prod is likely due soon.

[Farkran]

Reasons, you say. Ok, i'll prod you later about this, for the time being i'm fine with not lynching either you or ofrhz.

About lily, i think that in order of likeliness it's D>=A>C>>>B. She is still far below null, and i took temporarily off the hook only because of randbo's bad progression on Pine.

I'm curious as of why you'd think C is less likely than B.

[Farkran]

That said, re 1:
Experienced scum

absolutely

start bussing wagons on weak partners, which I think Randbo qualifies as. When scum commit to a bus, they want to bus hard and get credit for it.

I have personally bussed multiple of my scummates into the ground from nothing. It

does

happen.

Er... not really, especially when (assuming ofrhz/randbo as solve) there are PLENTY of TvT mislynches available right from the get go, including me, kerset, pine and lily.

[Farkran]

You bus the bad partner because they're generating terrible associatives that will drag you down with them, not because you can't find anyone else to lynch.

Note: I'm not saying that's necessarily the case here; we could have a Ohrfz/Pine solve, for instance.

I kinda don't agree with that - in this setup, i'd take a 5v2 with a bad partner a thousand times before i take a clean 6v1 alone if i were scum. Unless the bus move is forced up into your back (it happened in my latest game here), you just don't do it - the odds are heavily against you. If Pine has done anything good here, it's his wiki about bussing.

I've bussed my fair share of scumpartners in the past, but i was an undetectable godfather in a 2 maf vs 6 town setup, resulting in a 5v1 after nk. Not quite the same thing.

Pine/ofrhz is... unlikely, but it is true that they didn't interact at all. Well, both of them haven't interacted much with anyone, to be honest. Neither did lily. Nor randbo. However, out of these 4, ofrhz has the most solid content, which is why i was curious of you scumleaning him instead of the others.

[Farkran]

Reasons, you say. Ok, i'll prod you later about this, for the time being i'm fine with not lynching either you or ofrhz.

About lily, i think that in order of likeliness it's D>=A>C>>>B. She is still far below null, and i took temporarily off the hook only because of randbo's bad progression on Pine.

I'm curious as of why you'd think C is less likely than B.

Because I know that I'd be coaching the fuck out of Lily if I was in scumchat with her, and that I have the range to produce a distinct voice for "her" in "her" posts that would actually be my posts I sent her. So her lack of posting, from a third party perspective, is evidence against us being scum together.

I admit you look active enough for this to be true. I don't know about your irl relationship but if it is one of mutual friendship and trust, you'd be in the perfect position to repcoach her in the scum pt. Point taken.

This makes me even more curious about why you're not at least nullscum her. Would you like to tell us some of her meta?

[Farkran]

Masons? Did you mean ingame role?

Stop rolefishing.

You stop joke claiming. It's very annoying, confusing and unnecessary.

Aside of that, Farkran if you suspect that there is Eva and Lilli conspiration. I suggest that you turn off presumption that lilli is shy and Eva wish to change it. She is the one, who on the begining directly wanted us to think this way.

Lily fits perfectly into the new-to-the-game insecureness profile. I would probably have been ok with her IF she didn't post that half-assed readlist with a most opportunistic 3rd slot sheep vote on the fotd target. Having a deep relationship is ok, but if my wife was town in a game of mafia and i was scum i'd troll her so hard she wouldn't talk to me for a week at least. So, really @even, i suggest you be wary of that. Also, please kick her out of her comfort place and get the girl here posting.

[Farkran]

Incidentally, @kerset what do you think of randbo right now?

[Farkran]

@Ofrhz:
If you want me to, now. If you don't, probably D3 at latest.

I thought you were referring to ongoing games when you said "reasons". If you are allowed to talk, please do it.

[Farkran]

It feels like there’s only a few people playing this game

Yes. Not my definition of perfect and fun game. I believe some prods are due?

[Farkran]

The more i read from {Kerset, Micc}, the more it looks like the two aren't on the same team, yet they are both on the wagon against Pine as 1st (kerset) and 2nd (micc) slot. I am starting to find this a little disturbing. I thought it was TvT, but their reads are opposites. Kerset reasoning is gaining some ground on me, especially after the recent posts from Billy which i admit can be seen as flailing, while Micc is still WKing Billy hard. I myself am still thinking of Billy as town, but his recent posts aren't really that pristine. I was thinking of this even before Kerset pointed it out. You should at least notice that as a town player - you should never be

100% sure

of your reads unless TMI.

I did a 1v1 ISO of you guys and while Kerset STRONGLY leans as town now, Micc progression has always been kinda meh. By the time we joined Pine's wagon, Micc's reads were similar to mine, so i tried to reconsider him, but besides common reads i'd say there's nothing worth redeeming in his ISO.

Spoiler: highlighting bad progression posts, but please ISO him as well

I appreciate Farkran’s urgency for getting out of RVS as that’s something I also feel is important from a theory standpoint. Usually you have to be willing to push a pretty shallow case on page 1 to make it happen. Throwing out shallow reads on the whole playerlist is kind of excessive. Feels like he cares more about getting Town credit for moving the game along than actually moving the game along. Stripping his read list down to the bare bones is basically the activity overview sorted from most to least posts...which I don’t find to be especially alignment indicative.

Surely the lurkers will have to speak too, but currently this is my highest scumguess. Your interaction with Evenstar and Kerset looks as shallow as you're accusing my readings of.

No one’s lurking here. Our deadline is 10 days not 48 hours. It’s that long specifically so people can go 24 hours between posts and still keep up. If that’s not the style of game you want to play, then I’m sorry but this site doesn’t host the games you’re looking for very often.

I can afford to have a drawn out interaction with Evenstar or Kerset that starts off shallow and eventually gets meaningful. There’s time for forming a real read such that I don’t need to force myself to put something down for the sake of having something.

I can agree with the first sentence, but i can't shake off the feeling that you picked me as your target whereas you could push behaviors scummier than mine (albeit shallow) such as what Kerset initially did, or Pine. Why did you pick me out of all players, despite having "similar opinions"? Why are you going against Kerset now of all times?

I would definitely not say my readings were complete BS. I triggered reactions, and i outed my thought processes about said reactions. If you check again, i said that the only

fairly solid

town read was Billy, which a lot of people agreed with - including you. All my other reads were shallow leans, which are evolving into something more concrete and solid. I will update them regularly - something everyone should do, rather than keeping to themselves.

There was nothing from Pine or Kerset to push on page 1, besides maybe that they weren't gung ho about leaving RVS. I think that's even for shallow than what I pushed you for. My Kerset vote was frustration from him dodging my question, but upon review I misinterpreted his answer so the vote wasn't necessary fair. I do intend to continue the line of questioning.

I guess, I'll hold you to everything in the second paragraph? I don't have a problem with any of it from a theory standpoint, but I highly doubt any of it is outside your scum range, so I'm interested to see where your reads develop to.

town reading evenstar strongly for 153. Was tempted to vote Pine before that, and it feels especially like a good direction to push with her vote.

VOTE: Pine

Oh, and @Micc; Are you ever lynching Ofrhz today?

Unlikely, but certainly not ruled out at this point. And if I'm being completely honest my bar for lynching him day 1 is a lot higher than others just by virtue of being somewhat familiar with his meta.

You’re staling the game out pine. Either catch up or claim in your next post.

@Micc if have some time i would like you to elaborate your read on billy & Eve

Billy's reads and trajectory have been very close to mine throughout the game. From that standpoint they seem natural to me, and there haven't been any real scum pings, so he gets a town read. That said, the time for intent to hammer pine was 8 hours ago, not 8 hours from now.

Evanstar's analysis is on a level that I find extremely hard for scum to replicate. I previously cited 153 as a good example of that, but there are others. If she's scum, then I'm very impressed by her play thus far.

If you read the whole ISO you may notice none of his votes were cast on his own scumcases. Also, in his 199 he basically says he isn't willing to lynch any of the active players, but gives absolutely no read of the lurkers (whom i assume he's willing to lynch, given what he said in 148).

Micc, can you clarify this and elaborate your scumcase of Pine again?

Billy and Kerset, you too?

[Farkran]

@Micc: I am wondering why your vote is here, and what happened between post 59 "No one is lurking here, our deadline is in 10 days" + post 93 "i have nothing to push against Pine on page 1" and post 157 "vote Pine for being a lurker, i'm ok with lynching him today". As of post 33 you accused me of having a readlist based on sortable post counts and nothing else. At the moment, not only you are having pretty much the same readlist, but it is also based on that very motive (sortable post count), since you do not have a read of the other two heavy lurkers, randbo and lilliaire.

I find both of them to be scummy, not for the lurking part, but because randbo's progression on Pine is lousy and lilliaire's vote and readlist are the epitome of sheeping and opportunism. Either could be paired with Pine, but also with you.

pedit: why lilliaire over randbo?

[Farkran]

@Micc: I am wondering why your vote is here, and what happened between post 59 "No one is lurking here, our deadline is in 10 days" + post 93 "i have nothing to push against Pine on page 1" and post 157 "vote Pine for being a lurker, i'm ok with lynching him today". As of post 33 you accused me of having a readlist based on sortable post counts and nothing else. At the moment, not only you are having pretty much the same readlist, but it is also based on that very motive (sortable post count), since you do not have a read of the other two heavy lurkers, randbo and lilliaire.

I find both of them to be scummy, not for the lurking part, but because randbo's progression on Pine is lousy and lilliaire's vote and readlist are the epitome of sheeping and opportunism. Either could be paired with Pine, but also with you.

pedit: why lilliaire over randbo?

[Farkran]

Damn sorry for the double post, site is sluggish today

[Farkran]

Also @Kerset i'd really like to hear your reasoning on this, why is your vote staying here at the moment? Just wondering, too. You have two null/scumleans on this wagon (Evenstar as 3rd slot, Billy has given intent).

[Farkran]

@Billy yeah i was asking you to elaborate your scumcase of Pine

[Farkran]

@Micc: I am wondering why your vote is here, and what happened between post 59 "No one is lurking here, our deadline is in 10 days" + post 93 "i have nothing to push against Pine on page 1" and post 157 "vote Pine for being a lurker, i'm ok with lynching him today". As of post 33 you accused me of having a readlist based on sortable post counts and nothing else. At the moment, not only you are having pretty much the same readlist, but it is also based on that very motive (sortable post count), since you do not have a read of the other two heavy lurkers, randbo and lilliaire.

I find both of them to be scummy, not for the lurking part, but because randbo's progression on Pine is lousy and lilliaire's vote and readlist are the epitome of sheeping and opportunism. Either could be paired with Pine, but also with you.

pedit: why lilliaire over randbo?

Nearly 40 hours and over 100 posts happened between my push on you and my vote on Pine. I formed some reads I was pretty happy with and decided to work on filling in the blanks. I guess the difference between you in me is that it took you 33 posts to reach that point and for me it was 157 posts.

To be clear, I want to lynch Pine because his reaction to this L-1 wagon was to brush it off and not bother interacting with the people who are pretty clearly just looking to interact with him. I guess you could call it lurking, but I'd classify it more as not reacting to pressure in a way that looks town.

I'd keep Randbo around over lilliaire because I think he's probably more readable, and seems to be more likely to contribute when he's here... If he's here? If he doesn't pick up the prod and gets replaced I'm starting over from zero on his slot.

I kinda hate you, but at the same time i respect you. I have to agree with Evenstar that you are a pretty good player, and you know how to gather townpoints in your posts. Given the amount of experience, i'm not sure this is AI in either direction, but i'm willing to lynch other people before you today.

I am willing to reconsider lilliaire slot if she gets replaced, not sure about randbo though.

[Farkran]

1. Back in time Pine posts were not useful at all.
2. He gave lame vote
3. He started to lurk

Also @Kerset i'd really like to hear your reasoning on this, why is your vote staying here at the moment? Just wondering, too. You have two null/scumleans on this wagon (Evenstar as 3rd slot, Billy has given intent).

Lets see we know there has to be other scum. What kind of action did Sc take?
A) Sc decided to shade someone else and gave no opinion about his teammate.
B) Sc decided to suspect his teammate but did not vote him. When Sc saw L-1, he decided that situation is hopeless and claimed desire to vote.
C) Sc decided to join wagon early and hoped that teammate will be replaced. Then Sc would unvote him.
E) Sc decided to lurk as well.

Looking at the fact that there are other lurkers around. I don't think that C is reasonable, it would cause more charm then good to scumteam. I prefer to think that this vote clears Eva rather then it clears Pine.
A is a real possibility. Pine flip might make me rethink my null reads to either SL or TL.
B looks very realistic to me. There is more then one player who could hammer Pine so its inevitable in long term. Sc would secure his reputation for worst case scenario. I see no reason to pull out my vote because of this.
E would be quite troublesome to investigate.

Let's see if i got this correct.

A) would be ofrhz?
B) would be Billy
C) would be Evenstar, i guess? Are you ruling out both Micc and me?
D) is apparently no one, Pine is scum by himself and the mod screwed with us (lol i'm not serious but where's your D?)
E) would be either randbo or lilliaire

Out of these, i think only A and E are plausible. B is reasonable, but not before A and E.

To me, the situation looks like this:
If Pine flips scum it's randbo>lilli>ofrhz. In this scenario Kerset, Micc and Evenstar are never scum. Billy MIGHT be but not before the other 3 guys.

If Pine flips town, i think it's Micc. Pairings yet unknown but it's hardly ever Kerset. Anyone else can fit as his partner.

[Farkran]

Looking forward to hear from the new guys.

UNVOTE:

[Farkran]

Out of game note:

Welcome aboard! Glad to have you here, thread feels refreshed and i hope this means it will get more enjoyable from now on. I apologize that i don't know any of you, but so far my first impression of both (as persons, not in-game slots) is good!

In game:

Now, you replaced two of my scumlean slots, so i'll leave the out of game part where it belongs, and get back on track.

@Neza (previously randbo): Looking forward to those walls of yours. I have a lot of questions for you.

@worst (previously Pine): expecting content from you too, your slot has been less than useful in that regard. Could you elaborate your 283?

[Farkran]

i can summarise what i've written about billy so far, if you'd like. just allow that i haven't read past page 1 yet.

Take your time. I thought you had finished at least your first readthrough, but actually it may be better to hear your first impressions and progress from there.

[Farkran]

Welcome OnlyIAmMe! Let me say that i am *so* happy about the new replacements so far, i love active people who are trying their best to play, regardless of wincon. This is how a mafia game should be played in my opinion, and the type i most enjoy being in. Of course not everyone can afford to put so much time and effort into a forum game, but i appreciate it when i see they are actually trying and enjoying it as much as myself.

Please forgive me if i repeat this a couple times in my posts but i need to do that to fix your names into my brain and not mess up about who was what. I think that writing things down helps the understanding and memory areas of my brain so i'm just going to do it for a while until i am confident i can remember it properly:

Pine = The Worst
randbo = Nezahualpilli
lilliaire = OnlyIAmMe

Now i'm going to read all your posts.

[Farkran]

Spoiler: Neza post 296

Oof, rip my frozen deadline. Now I have to race against the clock.

My Kerset ISO Analysis

14: To be fair, we are all a little psychopathic to be playing forum mafia in the first place, in my opinion. At least that is how I feel after playing my first game.

32:

I decided to remain silent because I saw very interesting wagon on you(Farkan). I did not agree that your actions were suspicious so i wanted to see if anyone is going to join this.

Anyone who would join such opportunistic wagon would be my main scum lead.

I just have such a problem with that last sentence. With that sort of thinking, how do you expect to get anyone lynched? All wagons are, in essence, opportunistic. In an ideal world, it would be nice for all persons on a wagon to have their own separate cases with next to no overlap. But that ideal world doesn't exist. People will just choose to agree with whatever case already exists and/or supplement to it, and place their votes, thus forming a wagon.

But this is the route you've taken. If I see you on a wagon, any wagon, I'll be on your ass about it.

40: I'll take it a step further and say that Farkran didn't just expose himself, but rather made himself bait. Thus, for those that noticed the bait, I would think it would be the proper response to respond to said bait, even if it was going to end up as more than one vote.

58: You don't even try to disprove any of Eva's 7 points. So basically, you ackowledge her points, but tell her these points just mean that Farkran is anti-game, but not scum. Questions to you, then:

Why is throwing shade not scummy? Why is rolefishing not scummy?

Also, this post in general, I just don't get why you felt the need to white knight Farkran here. You haven't even necessarily decided that Farkran is town to you, the most you've thought of him at this point was that the wagon on him was 'opportunistic'.

60: I stand with Micc at this response. I don't understand the question, nor your answer to your question. Good luck trying to lynch someone today. I expect you to not be any of the lynch wagons.

63: HAHAHAHA no. I realize this was done out of naïveté, but this 'asking for PR for clues' is also rolefishing, imo.

76: This is a strawman fallacy. Micc's question to you was "So, ~9 days from now when the Day 1 deadline hits zero, is your plan for us to have lynched someone or not?". It seems like you disregarded the '~9 days' portion of his question when you asked your 60. Furthermore, you choose to focus on the Day 1 deadline portion and blurt out "Hammering in 24 hours, when we could utilize 240 is (profoundly stupid)."

Why are you misrepresenting Micc right here?

86:

Sorry, I won't use this word again.

I said that 3rd vote on same person would be suspicious not second. I don't believe that this statement shows anything opposing the idea of "not skipping RVS".

I don't suggest that second vote means hammering. I simply wanted to show that quick hammering is as irrational as not voting at all.

You contradict yourself here with your 40, in which you state:

Farkran decided to expose himself but he didn't attack anyone. It is a fair point to vote him and ask for clarification but

one vote is enough to do so. Person, who tries follow this make others to vote has evil intent.

Also, in 86, you also state "I simply wanted to show that quick hammering is as irrational as not voting at all." Then, why should I/we believe any word you say? You, who would denounce Micc in 60 for being okay with hammering someone. And you, who chose not to place their first time vote until 114. And you, who in 114 had Billy as your only scumlean, but chose to vote for Pine who was essentially a null because of a lack of content.

You, who are irrational by your own standards.

87: Hmmmmmmmmmmm...... this is going to sound super nitpicky coming from me, but I just find the word choice of 'sinister' out of place for some reason. Because this game already has a much easier and more relevant word: 'scummy'. It just feels weird that you went out of your way to avoid using scummy, but I could just always be overly sensitive about it.

96: This is really a non-argument. You are clearly trying to differentiate between the "Page 1 situation" (essentially this game) and "the universal rule". Why is this game's situation different from your universal rule? Why does universal rule not apply to this game? If presented with a similar situation in a different game, would you act differently than how you did in this game? Because my money is on "you won't".

99:

Could you show me a game where you can give warranted on info on #9? You are talking about #9 RVS. It is as suspicious as Evenstar calling herself VT.

I stated in #40 that it was fine to vote him and pursue for answer but creating a wagon is opportunistic.

Only scum would try to dig early RSV as third person because it is a easy way to look "towny" and make foundation for future ML. Kind of thing that you are doing right now.

Literally. What. If multiple people were to vote him and pursue for answers, would that be fine? Is that a wagon or not? Why is wagoning a bad thing? How do you expect to pressure someone if you can't wagon them? Is it not okay for multiple people to pressure someone by voting that someone and pursuing for answer?

Look, I get your position. But I just continue to be flabbergasted by said position.

The part after the bolded section also feels weird to me. Seems to be pretty sure that Farkran is a mislynch.

114: Despite how protective he's been of Farkran, Kerset doesn't even label Farkran has even a townlean. Meanwhile, labels Micc as town, misguided town.

147: I, or someone else, should have asked this near the start. You state that you don't have much game experience, but that does mean you still have prior experience.

Where did you learn to play mafia, and for how long?

150: Not-so-well-veiled OMGUS post. Also, maybe you should CLEARLY EXPLAIN your "take common sense" idea. Because thus far, the only thing you have done is:

• 60 - answer the question with your own question, and then proceed to answer your question with a unclear answer.
  
• 76 - use a strawman against Micc to get him to dismiss this talking point
  
• 40,86 - make contradicting statements on how big a wagon can get before the next person is scummy
  
• 96 - don't answer a question again, and instead, make the argument more confusing by trying to make a distinction between "Page 1 situation" and "universal rule"

You have literally done everything but make yourself clear. And now you're saying "when defendant is getting cornered and his incorrect statement comes from solidified data". If someone gets a statement from solidified (???) data, why would be incorrect?

169: That nitpick about 'sinister' comes back full force here. So Farkran isn't 'sinister', but Eva is 'scummy'. In a game like forum mafia, you can't edit your posts ever, so I like to think there is some importance to word choice.

223,228: You, who has roleclaimed twice thus far, telling Eva to stop joke claiming for that ONE TIME that happened near the beginning is pretty fucking hypocritical. Being a hypocrite isn't AI, but it's not a good look either way.

VERDICT

: Not a big fan, by principle, we are definitely different. I had issues with early game, and it only got worse. Like I said already, irrational even to his own standards. This is my only ISO done so far, so for now, I label Kerset as scumlean as a baseline measurement.

and

Spoiler: Neza post 309

Aside of your reads i really didn't like the way you try to forge content of my posts. If you want to shade me at least be honest:

I am not forging anything. Here is you saying the quick hammering/not voting at all = irrational.

Sorry, I won't use this word again.
I said that 3rd vote on same person would be suspicious not second. I don't believe that this statement shows anything opposing the idea of "not skipping RVS".
I don't suggest that second vote means hammering.

I simply wanted to show that quick hammering is as irrational as not voting at all.

---

I didn't mark him as null read. I clearly stated that they

Randbo - Lack of content, his read about Pine feels random. The rest of my though is in #99
ofrhz, lilliaire - null

are null and they lack of content not Pine. Pine seemed to deliberately make no content.

There literally next to no difference between "lack of content" and "no content". The Cambridge English Dictionary definition of the word 'lack' is

the fact that something is

not available

or that there is not enough of it.

At this point, I think my point still stands, and you are just arguing semantics. I find it interesting that, rather refute the fact that you didn't vote for your only scumlean by providing a decent reason for why you voted for someone for no content, you are instead just arguing said semantics.

---

114: Despite how protective he's been of Farkran, Kerset doesn't even label Farkran has even a townlean. Meanwhile, labels Micc as town, misguided town.

I did! In my next post (146), i clarify my 114 but for some reason this is the only post that you dodged so far.

But here's the thing about your 146. You tell Billy that you don't think using the townlean labels will give you better insight into your own reads. If the person who made the readlist doesn't find it important to do so, why should the person analyzing the readlist?

---

223,228: You, who has roleclaimed twice thus far, telling Eva to stop joke claiming for that ONE TIME that happened near the beginning is pretty fucking hypocritical. Being a hypocrite isn't AI, but it's not a good look either way.

I haven't done any role claim, as person who is reading my ISO you should be aware of this.
In 223 i was talking about

we're masons.

You clearly lied there, Eva did joke claim twice. You said that you read this game for many hours and even took notes but here you just forgot about the context?

Sorry, typo. Meant to say 'rolefished' to you, not 'roleclaimed'. And given that Eva was talking about how she and lilliaire are SOs, I chose to be respectful and not take it as a joke. It was a good analogy. But now I'm arguing semantics. Whatever. I chose not to take it as a joke, given the subject at hand. If you took it as a joke claim, then okay.

I have to say these posts are what i would expect from a tryhard town player, except that you have taken everything Kerset said without ever considering his POV while writing, either on purpose or out of bias. You're pointing what in your opinion is bad logic from Kerset, and regardless of whether i agree or not, you seem to overlook the motive behind those posts and the big picture about Kerset's reasoning in this game. I myself had a hard time figuring it out because his posts are... challenging to understand, and almost always in contrast to general consensus, thus they required multiple re-reads - however, in any of his exchanges with the other players he has shown traces of independent thought and, when not enganged in hollow arguments such as wagon or hammer timings, his posts have been useful and his votes placed and defended carefully. You're being pushy, and this is not the first time we've seen this coming from your slot.

Seeing as this followups a hardly salvageable randbo slot i think this is where i'm placing my vote right now. VOTE: Neza

Still looking forward to read your walls about me and Micc.

pedit: TLDR see ofrhz last post, i guess i could have saved some time by writing just that.

[Farkran]

This quote was actually too long to fit in a single post, so please just read post 299.

This on the other hand is a big 180° from what Pine has been offering us - i'm not sure how much alignment indicativeness i should put into that given that Pine pretty much ignored this game except for 47, 50/51 and a sheep vote against Kerset in 67. The skill level displayed in this post is clearly higher than average - to the point that it reminds me of scum!skitter in my last game where she also 180'ed on my read as soon as she realized where i was coming from. That attack on billy also rings weird - billy's analysis of my actions was indeed not keen at all, but tone and progression felt genuine and i think that this kind of "bad" reads usually come from town rather than scum in this specific scenario. It was too early to push for a mislynch anyways, and i believe he has been reconsidering me over the course of the game. This is also kinda town indicative of his previous play - if he was willing to stick to it, he wouldn't have dropped it off the way he did.

Contrary to billy though, i would not townlock you based on analytical skills only. Skill or lack thereof is absolutely NAI to me - if anything, it's useful to make yourself harder to read, not townread. I expect more content from you. Specifically, i'd like to ask why would you think Pine played as he did before he repped out.

[Farkran]

I have to say i am a bit concerned about what is happening around the Pine/TW and randbo/neza slots. Let me clarify my position more in detail, which at the same time should also answer some of the most recent questions to me:

Pine slot immediately started out as a (very weak) SL to me - this was just me having a first impression following my RVS escape reaction test, definitely *not* a solid read but something worth mentioning for the sake of moving the game forward. I too believe mine was kinda an obvious RT especially in the eyes of an experienced player, and that is why i wasn't particularly fond of Micc and Pine's reactions about it whereas i was more comfortable with Billy's. I thought Billy's post was made with good intent, despite not doing his homework properly about my meta - bad reads/bad logic arguments *usually* come from newb-to-intermediate skill level town in my experience, whereas at the same skill level scum is way more concerned about not slipping it up. Reactions i have got are the following:

Spoiler: Billy

Hello everyone.

I hate RVS, so i'm going to entirely skip that phase. Allow me to introduce myself:

I am Farkran, this is my second game in this site, but i have been playing FMs a long time ago elsewhere. Last game i was a mason.

Misc info:
- i am from italy, native language italian, i'm active most of the day but i will be sleeping during CEST nighttime.
- my meta is to talk a lot and getting others to talk. I attention-whore the game hard and usually die very early. I do this both as town and scum.
- i have a hunch that i may know who to target for today's lynch, but i need to confirm it first.

So why are you skipping RVS this game? Because it looked like you participated in it last time. Also, how do you possibly have a Lynch target four posts in?

And if you do, why aren't you voting it? Also, if you die early as town is it due to mis-lynching or being NK'd?

VOTE: Farkran

I find this to be a consistent reaction from what we have seen from Billy afterwards: SLs me on the basis of a poorly checked misrep (me participating in RVS last game) and takes my claim at face value (having a clue about who to target). I could see this coming from newb!scum, but if he was willing to stick with SLing me for the purpose of pushing a mislynch, he wouldn't have dropped it shortly thereafter.

Spoiler: Micc

VOTE: Farkran

- i have a hunch that i may know who to target for today's lynch, but i need to confirm it first.

2. I need to confirm something first, then i will be happy to do so.

I will tell you as soon as i know. Currently, i don't have the necessary elements to confirm my theory, and it would be detrimental to speak about it beforehand. Most likely tomorrow (almost sleeptime here).

If it's detrimental to speak about this read until you've confirmed it, I can't help but wonder why you lead off the game by speaking about it? It reads as being unnaturally eager to say something meaningful for the sake of looking helpful.

This reaction does not make sense to me, coming from a player with Micc's skill level. You would not read bad intent in my post - you'd *immediately* notice it was a reaction test and let it through, OR take it at face value just as Billy did for the sake of moving the game along. Instead, he complained about me being lamisty and chose to make a case against me, salvaging it later as his own method of "moving the game along".

Spoiler: Pine

Skimming the thread, Micc strikes me as Town, soft Town on Billy, nothing reliable on anyone else. Farkran’s on some sort of designer uppers, but I don’t know if that’s alignment indicative.

I usually have a big introduction post in Newbie games, I might get around to digging it up after work.

Please explain how Micc is town enough to you to give him an actual reading as opposed to "having nothing reliable on anyone else"?

Micc is engaged in actual gamesolving, making an effort to sort people on reliable information rather than the kneejerk surface-level stuff you’re doing.

Saying nothing in a lot of words is still saying nothing.

This is... dull. I can place it on the opposite side of the tone spectrum compared to Micc's, but ultimately they have been conveying the same message, which is something i wouldn't have expected from SEs. Contrary to Micc though, he waved it off as a newb!play rather than pushing/pressuring me, which at the time i found weird.

Spoiler: randbo

That is cancerous.
Let's say I developed a "scummy" game style. Yet I kept on flipping town. A reputation is attached to me. Now finally I landed a scum role. But since my playstyle is scummy, in your eyes (from your description) that is the way I play as town.

My strawman argument is the reason y. Reason that I seen used many time in many games. People defended behaviors with "that is just the way they are". Patterns. Human being does love patterns.

Now my turn: so now that Farkran had a massive introduction, Which as a town she haven't done before. What is in your mind while probing through her post?

By two post...
2 post
you already have a hunch who to target!?

This, same as billy, is what i would expect from town, thus my initial townlean of randbo. With added knowledge about randbo's future posts though, i went and re-read this from a scum!randbo POV and i think this reaction is even flashier than Billy's - i mean, this guy took the full bait and went down with it as if he was genuinely surprised, yet he didn't even vote me. At first i probably townbiased him on a personal level for not voting (i do have a tendency to omgus when i am *sure* of something yet people would not see it the way i do), but reading it cold-headed i find that his actions are inconsistent with his reads - i will follow up on this reasoning out of the spoiler.

Then the Pine wagon started (post 114) and it almost immediately gained consensus from everyone. I mean, as of 184 he was already at L-1+intent from Billy (he declared intent later, but it is adamant he wanted to vote him as well, which is why i clarified my position in the last paragraph of 261). Even randbo promptly adjusted his reads in 133 and 136, after stating "his actions are reasonable" in 98.

Pine did not even post in-between

. Everything that happened is that town gathered consensus against him, so he did either:

1. tried to soft-bus his partner as he was going down;
2. tried to push an handy mislynch.

I would have liked to question him more, but he flaked away and i was left with a plausible town wagon on Pine, although i was skeptical about the fact that TRs and SRs merged into it without any particular issue - especially Micc. Then Pine asked for replacement, everyone unvoted, and Neza (formerly randbo) happened.

I already stated i was not a fan of Neza's 296 and 309 and i was expecting a SL/SR on me coming from him, which punctually arrived as of 340 where he basically reinforces his pred's suggestion of a Fark/Kerset solve.

Seeing as TW literally 180°ed from Pine reads (47 vs 283 about billy, 50/51 vs 291/299 about me) i am much more inclined to think this slot has independent thought whereas randbo/neza has not. That newbie slot feels pushy AND looks coached to push mislynches on the fashion-of-the-day baits, which incidentally is also consistent with my scum!Micc theory given his posts 199 to 249 and 257. There also seems to be *way* less general consensus on the randbo wagon started by ofrhz as soon as 122 and ignored by pretty much everyone besides Billy. Posts 310 and 314 reinforce my opinion that Micc would still be ok in lynching the Pine slot but his only argument against Neza is semantics. I wonder how scum would think about this?

@Neza still looking forward to hear your analysis of Micc, i guess it will be fun to read since your FI of him was "i don't feel so great about him" (279) vs agreeing with him in everything you mentioned in your read of me and Kerset, lol.

@Micc i'd suggest you give a in-depth read about the Neza slot, thanks.

[Farkran]

quote snip
@Neza still looking forward to hear your analysis of Micc, i guess it will be fun to read since your FI of him was "i don't feel so great about him" (279) vs agreeing with him in everything you mentioned in your read of me and Kerset, lol.

@Micc i'd suggest you give a in-depth read about the Neza slot, thanks.

@Farkran - why didnt you make the same sort of comment as you did to Neza to the worst who started out scumreading me as pg1 scum then seemed to come around to excluding me from a lynch pool along with three others?

I explained it in detail in my 341. Let me recap my reads about them:

Neza:

he's being pushy and continued randbo's line of reasoning which does not make any sense to me. His readings of Kerset and myself are filled with misreps and logical fallacies. I can see this coming from coached scum or scum with a VERY hard time to PoE his fake scumreads, especially given the current situation where his slot has been SL/Red and he needs to salvage it quickly.

TW:

he started in the same position as Neza, replacing a SL/Red slot, yet he did a full 180 of his pred's reads and produced a very insighful analysis of your case (a pretty much universal townread) which, despite my disagreement, actually looked solid and solvy instead of survivalistic. The skill level displayed makes me wary of the sincerity or usefulness of his post - i'd say it is an overall NAI - but if i look outside of his area of influence, what i can see is a wagon that developed really quickly, starting out as a pressure wagon and ending up with hammer intent, then died just as fast as soon as the slot was replaced. This is pretty much the same thing that happened to me in my last game, so i'm more inclined to think the wagon was against town and therefore at least 1 scum was on it. Micc happens to fall exactly into that description, but honestly i don't have as solid a SR on him as i have on Neza slot right now.

[Farkran]

I'll post my readlist as a recap since i've been just wallposting recently

{Evenstar}
{Billy}
{Kerset, ofrhz, TW}
{Micc, Karnage} (karnage was previously lilliaire)
{Neza}

@karnage welcome! I suggest you form your reads first and then look for explanations/questions. You wouldn't want to have the game narrated by another player, especially in your position.

[Farkran]

Actually @Kerset would you be so kind to tl;dr the thread? We haven't heard much from you recently, except for some emotion display which is usually town AI to me, but i'd like you to produce more than your 381 in the current gamestate. I kinda regret answering to Karnage the way i did because after i read his first post again i could see his introduction as a RT i would do, and he's getting town points from me for that. I was... committed to being polite with my welcome post but that may have been a mistake and i spoiled it. Not really interested to hear from Evenstar (which is probably going to be replaced, sadly) and Billy right now though, but i'd love to hear from Kerset. @Karnage i look forward to hear from you too, your slot has been the least productive so far and i wouldn't like you to UTR your way out of d1 just because it's late.

[Farkran]

@Micc when did ofrhz join your "ok to lynch" group?

[Farkran]

town reading evenstar strongly for 153. Was tempted to vote Pine before that, and it feels especially like a good direction to push with her vote.

VOTE: Pine

Oh, and @Micc; Are you ever lynching Ofrhz today?

Unlikely, but certainly not ruled out at this point. And if I'm being completely honest my bar for lynching him day 1 is a lot higher than others just by virtue of being somewhat familiar with his meta.

I’d say at least two times for every nine tries.

If you’re here to play, then prove it I guess? I have Evenstar and Billy in my town group, Farkran and Kerset in my not wanting to lynch today group with ofrhz skirting on the outside. That leaves the lurky part of the game left to sort, and we’re starting with you.

Predit: yeah pretty much. With some “my experience is valuable, trust me” thrown in.
With respect to randbo, I don’t feel like I have one.

He's always been skirting on the outside, but kerset's vote made me take a look back and I kinda see what Kerset's pushing. But even that little interaction with ofrhz was a reminder that ofrhz's reads line up with mine. I don't know that I'd actually be willing to lynch him today if a wagon sprung up, and I don't realistically see a wagon springing up so moving in another direction feels more productive.

I think today's lynch comes down to deciding between Neza and Karnage. I'd like to hear their general conclusions and have some time to pick them apart as opposed to seeing these stream of consciousness style (at least in Neza's case) analysis of stuff that I don't find important.

So, forgive my stubborness, did you just say you would read ofrhz as null?

Also what would you find important coming from any of the target slots?

[Farkran]

As I said in my last post, I want to see where the replace in players land with their general conclusions and move from there. If they town tell then I guess that's important? Sorry, but I'm having a hard time understanding what you're looking for with my answer. Do you want me to tell people what they need to do for me to town read them?

No, but i find it peculiar that you would disregard their posts as "not important" when in fact both neza and TW provided quite the amount of info so far, which also triggered significant interaction within the town. I wonder what you are expecting to hear, and why don't you question them directly.

I will try to help with the Karnage/lilliaire slot though.

@Karnage, i have taken a look at your recent meta, i'd like to have your readings, please. You can progress from your FIs or finish your readthrough first, whichever you see fit.

[Farkran]

Sorry, i meant 384. Thank you though.

[Farkran]

Spoiler: handmade VC

Player	Vote Total	Vote Identity
Kerset	1	the worst 67; Nezahualpilli 435
Billy Pilgrim	0
Nezahualpilli	3	Ofrhz 122; Farkran 323; Micc 396
Farkran	0
Evenstar	0
Karnage	0
the worst	1	Evenstar 153
Ofrhz	1	Kerset 384; Karnage 420
Micc	0
	-
Not Voting	3	Billy Pilgrim 304

If i am not mistaken this is the current VC (i stole teacher's formatting but i'm not using mod color so i think this is fine). I wanted to take a look at the updated status of current wagons and i see that while everyone finds Karnage suspicious, no one has EVER voted his slot in a relevant fashion. Only two votes on lilliaire, Evenstar in RVS and mine in 100.

I think this is because a significant part of the town puts {Neza, Karnage} in the same SR spot but ultimately everyone is inclined to go for Neza first. Karnage also produced way less content and this is disturbing. I feel like he's UTRing and trying to survive d1 by timeout, but if this is the case i don't get why he didn't join Neza wagon to end it more quickly.

PEDIT: damn you teacher I took time to prepare this before you posted the official VC so i'm posting it nonetheless. I am at least happy i was correct. I'll put it into a spoiler tag to avoid confusion.

[Farkran]

What about people who're voting ofrhz? @Kerset @Karnage Could you scumcase him properly?

I noticed that ofrhz changed his playstyle after the replacements came in. I mean look at his current post count, he's the 2nd highest after me. I could interpret this as concern about the town's current lack of cohesion about today's lynch and is trying to get people to produce content, and started to produce content of his own VS his previously lurky behavior. He didn't point this out nor he did ask for credit so i don't think it is lamisty - this amounts to a solid towncred to me. Thoughts?

[Farkran]

@TW is there any particular reason why you're still voting Kerset since Pine did back in 67? Do we consider Kerset a wagon or is it just Neza?

[Farkran]

Billy, where are you? Have you formed a read on the rep slots?

[Farkran]

So.... I'm sorry, to Farkran, but my first read-through impression of Micc turned out to be a false positive.

Said first read-through of the game left me a not-so-great feel about the Pine wagon, a summary judgement I had written in my last reading:

Okay, this next part isn't even meant directly at Farkran, but I just found the entire Pine wagon to be very anti-game, the prevalent reason for jumping on felt like it was "Pine has no worthwhile content", even if it wasn't stated outright. A lack of content is honestly NAI to me, so the Pine wagon felt like a policy lynch instead, lynching who is perceived to be bad rather than lynching who is perceived to be scum.

To me, after my second read-through, it was off-putting that Micc was on this wagon because earlier in the game, Micc had indirectly suggested that activity was NAI (or at least, this is how I had interpretted it):

No one’s lurking here. Our deadline is 10 days not 48 hours. It’s that long specifically so people can go 24 hours between posts and still keep up. If that’s not the style of game you want to play, then I’m sorry but this site doesn’t host the games you’re looking for very often.

I can afford to have a drawn out interaction with Evenstar or Kerset that starts off shallow and eventually gets meaningful. There’s time for forming a real read such that I don’t need to force myself to put something down for the sake of having something.

So given that his Pine vote post made him look like he sheeped Eva onto the Pine wagon, I thought that inactivity was the nail in the coffin in this case, but then, Micc had given a good personal reason in his 163: prior experience and thus expectations. Something I cannot really fault him for. I am willing to trust someone else's history with another person as valid reason. Wouldn't even be the first time I've done it.

Also a weird thing in my head. Given how I had perceived his 59, I also found it offputting his 'willing to lynch' list in 385 could be summarized as "the slots with little/no activity" (ofrhz is included here because pre-replacement, he has not delivered much content at all). But at the same time, I understand that when having to choose between those that have contributed to the discussion and those that have not, it would be easy to side with those with content.

Basically, I have nothing on Micc. True neutral. Line of reasoning is solid, that's it.

I see. This is interesting. I kinda agree fully with this post but it also feels much less committed than your other cases, and i don't feel it would clear the possibility of a Neza/Micc solve. I'm sorry, but your slot is probably irredeemable in my eyes. I am not willing to lynch anyone else today unless something relevant happens.

Who would you associate Micc with if he was scum? Please try to answer even if some people don't like working with associatives pre-flip.

[Farkran]

I think this is because a significant part of the town puts {Neza, Karnage} in the same SR spot but ultimately everyone is inclined to go for Neza first.

Karnage also produced way less content and this is disturbing. I feel like he's UTRing and trying to survive d1 by timeout

, but if this is the case i don't get why he didn't join Neza wagon to end it more quickly.

I subbed in about 15 hours ago, how much content am i supposed to have provided?

It was addressed both at your slot in general and at Karnage specifically compared to TW or Neza, but feel free to produce any amount of content that town!you would find sufficient as we are now less than 2 days from EoD.

[Farkran]

When i produced my VC i was mostly checking the counterwagons and i overlooked the fact that Micc is 3rd on the Neza wagon atm. I might retract my previous comment about micc/neza solve.

Then, @Micc, i need to ask why are you on this wagon and not on Karnage's? By 385 and 401 your lynchpool is these two guys. Has anything changed since then? Why one over the other?

Specifically i'd like you to elaborate on what changed between 249+257 and 385+396+401.

[Farkran]

First of all welcome back Even, glad to have you here. I enjoy playing with you regardless of alignment and i was afraid you were gone for good.

Set that aside i think i need to ask you a few questions:

1. Are you confident ofrhz will be flipping scum more likely than anyone else at this point? Who would you pair him with?

2. What do you currently think about TW (Pine)?

3. Also what do you think about the lilliaire slot (OIAM>Karnage)? Are you willing to give your opinion about that slot now that it isn't filled by your SO?

...actually i'd rather you just post a readlist to recap your current position in the game status and ask you again for specific cases.

[Farkran]

My current line of thought is that i am alarmed by town being so much divided into "factions" right now compared to where we were at when wagoning the Pine slot. So, i have taken some time to re-read and analyze what we can.

While i don't have any particular reason to townlean TW except for what Billy pointed out in 450 - and i think it was indeed a bold move, assumingly sparked from what sounded like independent thought - the skill level displayed tells me it is closer to NAI than town indicative, so my individual read of him didn't go far from what i had on the previous slot owner. The reason why i'm kinda discouraged to pursue him again is precisely that general consensus seems to have fallen apart after the Pine train derailed, so i have been wondering why this happened and i could identify a few reasons.

Pine wagon composition:

Kerset, Evenstar, Micc, Farkran, (Billy as intent)

1. Pine/TW is scum and his partner is ofrhz or had flaked. The wagon was all town but then replacements happened, TW salvaged the slot and now town is aiming at his partner, therefore having an hard time finding consensus.
   
2. Pine/TW is town, at least one scum was on the wagon, and
   1. Other scum was also on wagon.
      
   2. Other scum was playing it safe or flaked.
3. Pine/TW is town, scum was off it trying to UTR and achieve an infamous fulltown mislynch which would likely spell them victory. It is likely that
   at least
   one of them flaked given that the wagon reached 5 people and ~2.5 out of the remaining 3 were not active (lilliaire and randbo, while ofrhz was way less productive back in the time)

I believe

Option C

is the least likely, firstly out of sheer probability and then because this would mean the scum team is one of: {ofrhz, randbo}, {ofrhz/lilliaire}, {randbo, lilliaire}. Ofrhz/randbo is VERY unlikely at this point, the other two are plausible.

Option A

is plausible, but kinda farfetched as the wagon against him was weak and mostly based on inactivity (non-lurking motives: my initial RT, Micc's knowledge of Pine's meta, pocket/sheep attempt). Instead, the wagon was realistically made out of an attempt to pressure him, YET it managed to reach intent in the shortest amount of time, only to fall apart even faster as soon as Pine was replaced. It might be worth noting that the unvotes happened almost immediately and simultaneously, their order was Kerset>Micc>Farkran (270+). Evenstar seemed reluctant to continue but did not unvote, then vanished. Billy didn't have a chance to unvote but acknowledged the news on 298 and utterly gives it up on the slot in 304.

Do we rule out the possibility of bussing scum on this wagon, assuming option A? I think so. I can hardly see a bus move on a pressure wagon born out of inactivity. If there is, though, i think it's likely billy. The intent seat of a wagon is usually the least credible; it would justify a couple of his posts that at the time i found weird (205, 220) and the fact that he now townreads the slot hard after just one well-thought post from TW. That said, i am not comfortable with placing Billy in my scumpool over *any* of the replacements. Second guess would be Kerset for not realizing he was going to hardbus his partner and then he was forced to stick with it, but this is even less likely imo.

Option B

is what i think is our most likely scenario, therefore at least one out of the 5 people involved is scum. Specifically, i think we are in B2: one scum on the wagon, the other flaked. My ideal scumguess would be Micc: his progression isn't really consistent (see 257 and 449), although his skill level allows him to spew town, on the other hand his range of scum moves is large enough to include his partner into his lynchpool - not enough to vote him as 3rd slot though, so i am now willing to rule out a {Micc, Neza} solve for the time being.

My conclusion is that we have at least 1 scum in {ofrhz, neza, karnage}

regardless of which is the correct option

, with greater chance for the other two to be TT rather than ST.

Who's the most likely to be? I think that associative attempts could be useful to point out our targets in this situation. Check the other wagons to conclude that:

If Neza is scum, we can likely mechsolve by biting TW>Karnage>Evenstar=Billy
If Karnage is scum, we do Micc>Kerset=Evenstar>Farkran=Neza
If ofrhz is scum, we do Farkran>Micc>TW

If we mislynch today we try again tomorrow, with added knowledge of the flip, all the while scum needs to do NKs and dodge PR actions, subsequently narrowing our lynchpool every day. If we agree to this, i think we can choose one slot where to compromise, otherwise let me know how'd you like to solve this game.

Neza is still my go-to lynch for today despite Micc's presence on his wagon because i think that 1. Neza is by far the scummiest out of the three and 2. Given that he went up to L-1 and claimed VT, Neza's flip has the least fail chance and the highest potential for info gained.

[Farkran]

@Farkran Didn't you overlook the possibility of Pine/TW&ofrhz team in option A? The idea of weak wagon is not opposing this scenario.

1. Pine/TW is scum and his partner
   is ofrhz
   or had flaked. The wagon was all town but then replacements happened, TW salvaged the slot and now town is aiming at his partner, therefore having an hard time finding consensus.

If ofrhz is scum, we do Farkran>Micc>TW

[Farkran]

I kind of just want to do Karnage

Is there any interest

Not against it but i'd much rather do Neza. Reasons?

[Farkran]

I feel so disappointed that Eva didn't make a catch up. There are only 20 hours left, so if noone else wants to go for ofrhz, i will hammer Neza in ~14 hours.
Btw i am not intrested in Karn.

Now this is news to me, why are you not interested in Karnage? The last i've heard from you about the slot was:

OIAM made 6 posts and 3 of them were introduction. No way to tell his alignment.

Before this, only nullreads on lilliaire. Does this mean the slot has always been outside of your lynchpool for today? Why? I can see Karnage agreeing with your reads as you two are SRing both Evenstar and ofrzh but is that the only reason?

Incidentally, this was lilliaire's first (and only) relevant post:

Hello! Any thoughts on what has happened so far?

Randbo: Soft scum vibes, waiting to see more.

Billy Pilgrim: I'm watching him because I think he's been a very helpful player so far. This might be unwarranted paranoia, but I'm hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. No particular read yet.

Evenstar: Her reads list has gone a long way in giving me confidence she's town. They seem genuine to me.

Farkran: I think he's been plainly fishy thus far.

VOTE: Farkran

This was a very early post, but it's quite the bold 180°. I didn't notice it before and i don't know what to do with this - his position is similar to TW but at the same time it's very different - I'd like Karnage to explain his reads before deadline. Specifically about why Neza is so high in his town department, and the breakup he promised on the farkran/kerset/evenstar trio.

[Farkran]

@Neza: we are pretty much seeing only AtE from you now. I'm probably scumbiasing you a lot, but i don't even find it to be the "correct kind" of AtE.

Say you are actually town, why are you not helping your wincon by producing content and reads that we might be able to use after you flip? Why are you giving up and asking to end the day earlier? This does not seem to help town wincon - we already know we're going to hammer someone, so it is at best lamisty to ask for the hammer. Self-hammering as town (well, actually as any alignment) is also a very bad move unless you realistically risk a no-lynch situation, which is definitely not our case.

On the off-chance you are actually town, can you provide your analysis on the wagon that is currently hitting you? Do you think there is at least one scum on it? Who? Why?

[Farkran]

You will lynch Karnage and gain 0 information from his flip. He will probably apear as town but even if by some chance he turn out as scum you will be left with info as weak as his reads.

Can you explain why you are townreading Karnage now?

I feel so disappointed that Eva didn't make a catch up. There are only 20 hours left, so if noone else wants to go for ofrhz, i will hammer Neza in ~14 hours.
Btw i am not intrested in Karn.

Now this is news to me, why are you not interested in Karnage? The last i've heard from you about the slot was:

OIAM made 6 posts and 3 of them were introduction. No way to tell his alignment.

Before this, only nullreads on lilliaire. Does this mean the slot has always been outside of your lynchpool for today? Why? I can see Karnage agreeing with your reads as you two are SRing both Evenstar and ofrzh but is that the only reason?

[Farkran]

It wasn't ever intended as a serious claim in the first place, lol

Still have not caught up, but

Karnage posts are interesting

still townreading the slot, but eh

not super confident in my vote rn

Tempted to vote neza for reasons of lazy, but that's how the scum win

gonna sleep and try to return to this tomorrow morn

Frankly with Lily out I don't have a ton of get up and go for this game anymore, but I'm gonna do my best to contribute anyway.

Still tempted to hammer neza just to save myself work, but no. I really think they're town. Ohrfz has had good reactions, but Kerset's shoving at them feels bad to me, as does their taking the first possible opportunity to shade me.

@Ohrfz: I looked into your case on Karnage. I think you're town. I absolutely would prefer a Karnage lynch to a Neza lynch today. Neza is producing content; Karnage is reproducing old gripes from several pages ago, and they're making a show of lost confidence.

Also, farkan = kerset = eva all as equally scummy? No reasons given? Come on, you can do better than that.

I'm up for this option.

VOTE: Karnage

You too Evenstar, why the sudden change of mind?

[Farkran]

Both scum!neza and scum!karnage will NEVER be back to this thread in this scenario, it's very unlikely we're going to gain any info out of them, but i'm all ears for explanations about the sudden change of targets from ... like, half of the ?town?

[Farkran]

and frankly putting the two of them together the ISO sucks

This i can agree with. Honestly though, randbo/neza ISO is not good either.

To be fair i don't like any of the last two pages worth of posts except possibly Micc's 566. Wtf has happened in this town?

Kerset i'd really like to know why you are townreading Karnage now.

[Farkran]

I need to get some sleep but i'll be around a couple hours before deadline. I still think neza is a better target than karnage but i'd like to have control over the hammer on the off-chance scum!karnage gets back and quickhammers for a desperate free mislynch. He's likely my d2 target anyways, unless stuff happens.

UNVOTE:

[Farkran]

You will lynch Karnage and gain 0 information from his flip.

He will probably apear as town

but even if by some chance he turn out as scum you will be left with info as weak as his reads.

It is not about townreading Karn, its about choosing more suspicous person. Neza made both bad reads and has controversial interactions. There is no reason to pick Karn above him, useless you can prove me that we should town read Neza.
Just look at Evenstar, she never said a thing about Neza case even that i directly asked her for it. Instead she jumps at each other wagon {me, ofrhz, karn} and gives her opinion about it. Thats one more useful view from lynching Neva.

You did say that bolded part though. Is it JUST because you don't believe in neza+karnage as solve and therefore if neza is scum karnage is not, or is there anything else you'd like to share with us?

[Farkran]

This is dumb. And it’s not even that I dislike Karnage as a lynch. If he’s scum he can just not show up and y’all are put in a position where you have to hammer him without a claim. Is that something y’all are willing to do?

Yes, because then he's either A: scum or B: bad at town?

These things are also true of Neza, and that lynch comes with the added bonus of not being a 2/8 shot at lynching a town PR.

Also what makes you so sure we aren't in column C of the newbie setup?

[Farkran]

Even with those two questions removed from my mind though, i really don't know what to say about these two slots.

I look at neza's posts and i see:
1. Self-vote
2. Hollow and pointless AtE
3. No help for the town whatsoever.

Even his previous content posts are filled with the most superficial analysis, he basically what at the time were the most convenient slots, skimmed their ISOs to find whatever he could find to push them, sometimes up to actual misreps. To me, it seems that when he replaced into a scumslot he tried to salvage his position by throwing useless, yet very abundant content at the town for a last stand attempt to survive. I can't see him ever playing for town wincon - what he's doing is in the best interest of scum though, even the self-vote seems to have come only when it wasn't actually dangerous.

@Billy, you say in your 583 that

"literally no one is trying to save him"

. I say that

while you were voting elsewhere

, he was at L-1 and wasn't even gave intent, then ofrhz and Evenstar

started a counterwagon

on Karnage which is now at L-1 after TW switched back from neza to there. I can hardly see that as "no one is trying to save him".


Then, i look at karnage's posts and i see:

Nothing. He didn't come back, 3 hours before deadline. His previous iso is... bad. And even he is townreading, or at least townleaning Neza yet refusing to explain why. He promised a case for three of his scumreads, and he didn't come back before deadline to deliver.


Both slots are way, way below the null level. I don't know how anyone is possibly reading town intent in either of them. There is no general consensus about either, which makes me wonder where actual scum is, but i'd be extremely surprised if both flipped town. If either dies today and flips town, i'm going for the other in d2.

All in all, i think i'm still staying on neza because his flip helps me sorting at least two slots - TW, who i can now easily associate with the randbo/neza progression and Micc, who is so keen on voting Neza - yet if Neza is scum there's no way Micc is.

VOTE: neza

Also at L-1. I am hammering Karnage 15 minutes before deadline (intentionally after TW and Micc promised timing because i'd really like to see neza flip first).

[Farkran]

I’m not sure why I feel like Neza’s recent posts are towny but I’ll try:

1. They don’t feel survivalistic

2. He is AtE’ing but it’s... to get himself lynched...? I feel like that’s NAI for experienced scum but I’m not sure it comes from a newbie scum

3. I just think the second half of 540 probably comes from town who has been told his play style isn’t good and is being mislynched for it

1. He *says* they aren't survivalistic, but to me it seems like that they are, or at best they come from lost interest into the game (possibly because he's losing as scum). If i recall correct this is one of his first games on the site? Randrolling scum early can be bad for your mental health, lol. Last game we had epiccreeper trying, but in the end he gave up shortly (see Newbie 1951 scum PT).

2. What would you do as newbie scum then? Assume you aren't experienced enough or gifted in providing good reads and how to look town. Wouldn't you panic and say anything that comes to mind to stop the wagon going at you? Wouldn't you cry for your life in attempt to look like a misunderstood newb!town?

3. This could be true but it's not how you play town wincon. You are being mislynched, you eat it up and try to help your faction with your death. I even pointed it out in my 556 and he *ignored* it. It could amount to very minor townpoints if he had actually acknowledged it but in the end he emotionally collapsed - which would be VERY bad town play but town play nonetheless - instead, he just didn't care.

[Farkran]

lay out your karnage scum case then.

convince me.

I don’t think Karnage or any of his predecessors have made meaningful attempts to find scum or to protect his townread

I think his push on me is bad, and his “agree to disagree” response to tw seems kind of unnecessarily dismissive of the responses we wrote to his case. How is that kind of response going to convince tw, a townread or townlean of his, to get me lynched over Neza?

He just doesn’t seem to care that much

This is also true though. Town intent nears the absolute zero.

[Farkran]

@ofrhz

Let's try to tackle the opposite side - who do you see Karnage paired with?

[Farkran]

@ofrhz

Let's try to tackle the opposite side - who do you see Karnage paired with?

Initial thought is he works with everyone except billy and Eva

I would probably not consider you or Micc as well- I can understand your stances regarding the lynch and see where they are coming from even if I don’t agree with it

I guess Kerset would be the only one whose standing takes a hit

I don’t really think a scum Karnage would make TW look any better or any worse, but I’ll think more about this after a flip

Neza is a potential partner as well

Kerset/TW/Neza

I kinda agree with this.

I feel the TW slot is more tied to neza though, given initial randbo's progression on pine which neza didn't even bother to comment on.
I could see Kerset paired with Karnage given that his initial nullread spontaneously became at least a townlean for no reason and he isn't here to back it up.
Neza/Karnage... isn't something i would completely rule out but do we really believe BOTH wagons are fulltown?

[Farkran]

I am hammering karnage in ~30 minutes if nothing happens

[Farkran]

Aaaand it's done.

[Farkran]

Post-flip i'd say (red is scumflip, green is townflip, yellow is regardless of flip)

Kerset needs to be checked into

TW needs to be checked into
Evenstar needs to be checked into
Billy needs to be checked into

Neza is still very bad and likely my primary target for d2
Ofrhz can be town, staying here to discuss until last minute was genuine, i'll case him better tomorrow especially if greenflip
Micc... does not gain nor lose points in either case, i definitely need to case him better but i'm more inclined to reconsider given he was here to hammer too

[Farkran]

I get to live d2! I'm hyped! That, like, almost never happened before.

@Billy would you like to go over your townread of Neza again?

@TW could you go provide a detailed explanation about your decision to join the Karnage wagon after taking your time to build a hyped case against Neza and voting him in 514? It seemed to me that you were committed willing to stick with it, yet switched elsewhere in 574 after seeing mostly pointless AtE from him.

=== pedit ===

Oh, and one more thing.

Everyone on the Karnage wagon. Nice job guys. Great policy lynch. Lynch the slot that barely had any content available. Couldn't even let Karnage mature in the following day. Real proud of you all.

Farkran is somehow the most townie for me. I still think that Kerset is scum.

And other scum is the among the remnants of the Karnage wagon.

Why the 180 on me, but not on Kerset?

[Farkran]

I think there is only one scum among the Karnage wagon.

And I think Kerset would be a much better partner to anyone there compared to yourself.

I have mentioned before that if Kerset is scum, then you are not.

Who?

[Farkran]

Everyone on the Karnage wagon. Nice job guys. Great policy lynch. Lynch the slot that barely had any content available. Couldn't even let Karnage mature in the following day. Real proud of you all.

I totally agree with this. Could some make a summary of what did we discover from this flip?

Sorry @farkran that i didn't reply to you. If you are still intrested, back there I would say that the odds of others being scum, decreased the chance that Karn is one.

So who do you think is scum on the wagon against karnage?

[Farkran]

Yes that's what i think too. Neza/TW as solve is still as plausible as ever and i really didn't like how TW handled the situation in EoD - also the interactions between the two are peculiar, Neza seems to always nullread TW while avoiding direct conflict and that often comes from newbie!scum.

VOTE: TW

@Billy though, i'm still wondering why you are still townreading Neza, can you towncase him for me please?

[Farkran]

Also we're already at L-1 if i can do math.

[Farkran]

I do not think Neza is town - i have learned my lesson about epiccreeper in my last game. I also thought he was a distant VT, because of how he introduced himself into the game. This site setup and different deadlines fooled me quite a bit, back in my times if you were scum you didn't have the chance to play the "too scummy to be scum" card - there was no declaration of hammer intent because it wasn't customary to claim when threatened with lynch - the other players just hammered you and that's it. It was a consequence of days lasting 2 irl days instead of 10, the pace was way faster - i.e. either you were very active or you lurked your way through multiple days (also a possibility since we used to play games with ~14 to 20+ people, 3 kills per night from double scum factions, sk, etc). Also no day chat for the scum team.

Here i realized it is vastly different. Newbie!scum under pressure usually panic and do not know what they are supposed to do. If anything, i believe the coaching would be to claim PR to fish out the true town PRs - however, that would also mean you would be screwed up either that day or the day after. At this point it all comes down to wifom, whether you would use an optimal strategy (fakeclaim PR, fish out the real PR/s, die while bussed hard by your partner) or take complete cover behind the newbie shield and attempt to salvage it with ATE. I think either strategy has risks and benefits, so i'm inclined to believe it is NAI and i'd rather analyze the town intent behind Neza words.

Do i see any? No. You say it is anti-survivalism, but if you look at the facts, it is true that he self-voted, however he didn't self-hammer as promised. "I hate you" and all, but he gladly took Karnage mislynch instead of his own, conveniently waiting up to 612, post-hammer, to come back and talk without offering anything of value to the town. True, the twilight was very short, but if you are there as a spectator, you try to contribute. If you believe you are being mislynched, you eat it up and try to contribute. That is, if you are actually town. I didn't see any of that.

Incidentally, it also makes for a good pair with Pine/TW and it's one possible reason why Pine opted to replace out - his partner (randbo) was rude at first, then flaked while Pine was going down. As of today i'm up to 90% sure Neza is scum and willing to look for partners. TW makes a good one and i'd like to hear why he unvoted Neza and didn't come back to hammer as promised.

To be honest though, Billy, your 631 also isn't very good, given that you were the one fueling his ATE after unvoting him in 472. You also said "no one is defending him" but i suggest you take a look again at 558, 559, 563, 568, 581, 583, 584, 586. And the fact that you weren't there to hammer also makes me wonder if that comes from town!billy.

Your 628 also makes you aware of plausible reasons for scum to go against Evenstar, and you were quite fast to attack TW after Micc's vote - therefore sorting TW basically leads me to a Neza/Billy solve or vice-versa, and gg.

[Farkran]

Okay. Whatever. I'm not going to waste time trying to convince you that I'm not scum. You did already say that my slot was irredeemable because of Randbo, so all this extra detail was unnecessary justification.

You will just have to have your slice of humble pie if I am lynched and/or revealed.

Tips for next game: when playing as town, you do not try to convince me that you are not scum. I do not really care about your defense - you can fake it anytime you wish - nor should you care about mine. You go on your personal scumhunting mission, question other people, make reaction tests to sort out who is actually scum and try to achieve your town!wincon. You can have bad reads, you can mislynch and ultimately play shitty as town, but you try to do what you're supposed to do rather than offering minor bits of nullcontent and then play defensively for the rest of the game like you don't care about it.

[Farkran]

Yeah, TW was scum. Should have expected it, although i am still quite puzzled about how we managed to pull a full town wagon on him in, like, the first 4 pages into d1? Apparently we were indeed in option A.

Kerset, does not really make sense for him to be scum. You... just don't bus your partner that early. He went up to L-1 with intent, it's not like he joined a lolwagon to gain lamisty town points. Losing your partner d1 is

bad

. He was first to unvote as soon as the rep came in, but... eh. I believe Kerset is town.

I have scumcased neza enough in the last two days, so i will just say that i think it's VERY likely to be him at this point.

Ofrzh kinda looked town to me since he started contributing, which incidentally is... right after when TW replaced in? With added flip wisdom, his 267, 268, 392 and 394 assume a whole different meaning. Also i really don't believe RVS is AI, but those posts 6 and 7 might make a lot of sense right now.

Occam's razor still says Neza, but i must say, post-flip, i don't like ofrhz ISO at all.

VOTE: neza for the time being. @ofrhz, what's up?

Also i guess it makes sense that billy and micc looked scummier than they should have - being mason makes you bold, i know from experience, lol. I didn't even find your crumbs. I should apologize to Micc too, i honestly believed he was scum at some point.

[Farkran]

What was that? SE wasn't aware that he flips after selfhammer?
With 5 players alive, we are able to afford two more lynches, so with my two suspects neza and ofrhz this game is basically solved for me. From my POV the only remaining problem is whenever i can really trust Fark, because Billy is confirmed town. During this whole game, i didn't really find his behavior to be scummy and Pine flip even reinforce this (he was L-1 wagon member there).
I don't mind whenever we vote neza or ofrhz first.
VOTE: Neza

Nah, TW was just screwing with us because he got caught on the doctor claim, lol. He likely self-hammered to avoid town gaining more info about who his partner is and tried to mess up with twilight time. Yeah honestly i can't see you in team with Pine/TW - i could've seen billy but there's no reason to doubt he is mason right now, micc wouldn't lie about that.

[Farkran]

My buddy is dead. Yeah, we didnt crumb Fark. There wasn't any reason to. And we were gonna aggressively wagon everyone until we got a claim. Kinda upset that it happened on the first person, but hey, we got scum so that was good. Confused why TW kept up the gambit while self-hammering, but whatever.

I think I'd lynch in Neza today. I wanna reread the isos of the other three before casting my vote. Neza if you self-hammer here and you flip town I'm going to lose my effing mind.

I dont want to hammer until I hear from Ofhrz.

@Neza - who is scum?
@Ofhrz - who is scum?

Also, Kerset and Fark, who is scum if Neza flips town?

Odd enough that you didn't crumb - it was one of the first teachings of my mason SE and i immediately agreed with it - but the point is that yeah, now that micc flipped there's no reason to doubt you are a mason. Checking back, i can see how you and Micc voted in unison and never doubted one another.

As for who is scum, after TW flip i stand by my post 261 and 499. VCA and flips point to Kerset never being scum - therefore if it's not neza, it's ofrhz.

[Farkran]

Ofrzh, did you have a chance to write up your case?

[Farkran]

Just looking at the D1 Pine wagon, I would lean towards not having the presence to break up the wagon on their partner rather than from Farkran's position of bringing his own partner to L-1. Admittedly, I'm not as confident in this as I'd like to be. However, I think Farkran was townread enough at this point to have diverted this wagon even if no apparent counterwagon was available.

I did not understand this passage. Who is it referred to? What would you have expected from scum!neza or scum!fark?

I would lean Farkran scum over Kerset

Interesting take. I wonder if you believe i am TRing Kerset stronger than he is TRing me or vice-versa, or if you assumed this as PoE after reading just Kerset and Neza. I don't see a scumcase on me in your post (although the line i quoted above might be involved - i really did not understand what you meant to say there), but i do see that both me and Kerset are TRing each other and while he has you in a (slightly?) lower position than Neza, i am confident the game will end with a Neza lynch.

If this is not the case though, i think we are both aware that lylo is probably Fark-Kerset-Ofrhz due to billy being conf!town. Would you rather have neza? Is that the reason why you tried to divert the d1 wagon and in the end 574 happened? Post 576 basically explains this in detail - IF Neza is not scum, he is one of the easiest slots to dump seeing as randbo's progression was really, really bad and all the ate from Neza did not help the town whatsoever. Incidentally, that might be why Micc decided to resume his wagon against TW - i also found that the reluctance to end Neza's troubles in d1 was very scum-motivated.

[Farkran]

Actually Billy can probably attest to that - what was the thought process that brought you to resume the wagon on TW? Post 627 kinda explains it though.

[Farkran]

VOTE: neza

I think this was hammer?

[Farkran]

Interesting take. I wonder if you believe i am TRing Kerset stronger than he is TRing me or vice-versa, or if you assumed this as PoE after reading just Kerset and Neza. I don't see a scumcase on me in your post (although the line i quoted above might be involved - i really did not understand what you meant to say there), but i do see that both me and Kerset are TRing each other and while he has you in a (slightly?) lower position than Neza, i am confident the game will end with a Neza lynch.

If this is not the case though, i think we are both aware that lylo is probably Fark-Kerset-Ofrhz due to billy being conf!town. Would you rather have neza? Is that the reason why you tried to divert the d1 wagon and in the end 574 happened? Post 576 basically explains this in detail - IF Neza is not scum, he is one of the easiest slots to dump seeing as randbo's progression was really, really bad and all the ate from Neza did not help the town whatsoever. Incidentally, that might be why Micc decided to resume his wagon against TW - i also found that the reluctance to end Neza's troubles in d1 was very scum-motivated.

No I made it clear that I want neza lynched today

Between you and Kerset, I think your positions on the wagon are worse than Kerset’s. If Neza lynch doesn’t end the game, I’ll take a closer look tomorrow though because tbh i didn’t read all of your posts that carefully when I was rereading the game

I also think it's neza, but if it's not i'm going through all the possibilities, because it's either you or kerset - specifically you over kerset.

Speaking of inductive reasoning (we're in twilight and possibly endgame now, so i can afford to waste some time i think?), i believe it can be a useful asset to the town too, as long as you use it properly. I often re-read all days with both POVs in mind, town!anyone and scum!anyone, and try to find reasons for both sides. It's time consuming, and it can be bad if you tunnel yourself on specific players, but i think it helps seeing scum or town motivation in posts that you would otherwise overlook. Basically you just read every ISO as if the player had already flipped, and ask yourself "why did they do this?", "Why didn't they do that instead?"

Then again it doesn't always do wonders because you may indeed tunnel yourself on someone and TvT with him while letting scum go UTR. It happened to me last game, with teacher and emps mostly, but then i... kinda reconsidered the guys correctly, and all the conversation we produced in the end helped sorting out scum!skitter.

[Farkran]

Ok, first of all, sorry Neza. I was almost *certain* you were scum. The newbie!scum profile was matching perfectly what i've seen from epiccreeper in my last game. I owe you an apology after this game is over, but next time please try something different than just ate, it will be very helpful to you and to everyone else you're playing with. You should never give up offering content. I was smacked in my last game too - you just eat it up and try to help to the best of your possibilities, because you always want to win the game, even if other people get mad at you. If you give up on winning the game, well, you should not continue playing out of spite.

~~~~~~

That said, i have spent quite some time re-reading the whole game with specific care for Kerset and ofrhz ISOs, just to make sure i haven't been overlooking anything.

I pressured Kerset after my initial RT and his response to my vote was towny. Post 63 was bad, pretty much the opposite of a solvy mindset. Then i have seen some exchange between him and micc which was not really satisfying from a town POV but if anything i thought Micc was the scummiest one, not the other way around. It was mostly semantics though, given that we all agree that it's a very bad idea to end the day - especially d1 - so early, AND that a lynch must be done, so the discussion was at worst pointless and probably NAI. He has shown independent thought throughout the whole game, and while his reads (mostly about Billy and Evenstar, but even i was almost thinking Billy was not so clean at some point) were kinda off, the thoughts behind them seemed to come from town, contrary to what i have noticed in his earlier posts - perhaps scum!kerset adjusted to the gamestate we were in, but i don't see that coming from his profile. I am aware of a plausible pocket attempt towards me since he has been townreading me the whole game, but i don't know the player and his "modus operandi" so to speak. By what i could get from him in this game i don't think he is the pocketer type, i'd be more inclined to believe in a panic-lurker or aggressive type when he rolls scum.
After TW flipped, VCA says Kerset was 2nd in wagon and first to unvote after replacements, then kinda never considered TW as scum ever after. Post 413 doesn't feel very well. He didn't have a chance to participate in the d2 TW wagon: that could have been a smart move from TW foolproofing him by selfhammering and ending the day quickly, whereas ofrzh had a chance to check in (632, and 652 after the claim).

~~~~~~

Speaking about ofrzh, i have already scumcased him -partially- in my 659. The only action (or, rather, word) he has ever done against the Pine/TW slot is post 632, when the ship was already sinking and he might've afraid he couldn't have the chance to put his own hole in it - unlike what happened with the first wagon, which led us to suspect him (see 505). I can see him trying to get Neza into lylo for an easy win while Karnage would have been harder to sort and was threatening their slots, hence the sudden townread of Neza in the last minutes of d1 and subsequent wagon switch after having scumleaned the slot for the whole day, starting with post 122. Incidentally TW joined him in posts 574 to 577. In d3, neza was going down no matter what, so he had to settle with it.

Good things from ofrhz come mostly from his increased presence mid-to-late d1, when he actually started producing content instead of assessing the gamestate - an attitude which could lead to believe he was a town PR, which we are now certain he is not. The lack of N1K on ofrhz might be suspicious, but then again my PR pool was {Micc, ofrhz, Evenstar} so it is plausible that Evenstar was more universally read as PR. Incidentally she was also becoming a threat to the ofrhz slot since posts 464 to 467, which makes her a very desirable N1K for scum!ofrhz.
Karnage was also a threat since 420 and he got mislynched by the wagon filled by both ofhrz and TW (VC 587).

Then the masons happened, so N2K and N3K aren't really indicative, just like my previous game.

~~~~~~

Both slots have *some* potential to be scum, but ofrhz ISO and actions are much more questionable than Kerset's when you read them after the first scumflip. Also, i don't think scum!Kerset would try and bus Pine that early and for so little reason. I could definitely see ofrzh softbussing TW in d2 though, after he went at L-1 for the second time.

I think i have made up my mind, but i'd like to hear your defenses and your scumcases before casting my final vote.

[Farkran]

Post 63 and your exchange with Micc. Your very first post also worried me at the time, but i re-evaluated after your response to my RT. I'm mostly worried about your slot because of what happened after the Pine wagon though. Could you go over why you unvoted and why you never considered TW as scum afterwards?

[Farkran]

Why would you fear the possibility of quickhammer, if it didn't happen up to that point? Pine has been at L-1 for almost two days. I agree on having the replacement speak up first, but your unvote was quick. I also agree, though, that Neza caught my attention too - i was considering a Pine/Neza solve, yet the Pine wagon seemed 1. too convenient at the time, and 2. stalling the game. A flip would have been welcome, but TW managed to salvage his own slot somewhat - i thought i could still push my solve by going through neza, who was pretty much conf!scum to me, and it would have made sense if he was paired with Pine when you look at randbo's early progression.

When the wagon against TW was resumed in d2 by Micc and Billy though, you didn't jump in nor ask any question. Why?

[Farkran]

We always make sure to point out that a vote is L-1, thats not a real fear but policy precaution. Same goes here.
I was waiting for TW to react. I said in #262 that i want to hear him out and so I did. Nothing to discuss here.

Agreed on this, but i'll come back later to this topic.

The main factor that made you vote TW was the way he switched his vote. Ofrhz made the same switch but you just overlook it. Even when i look at this right now i think that you jumped on inferior choice.

It did sound unusual to me that ofrhz switched wagons so suddenly, and i called him out for it in 537, reiterating the issue in 567, then talking to him directly in posts 601 to 606. I admit, though, that ofrhz wasn't one of my primary targets at the time. He played in a way that didn't sound vanilla but also not really scummy, up to the Pine wagon and the vote switch on Karnage. I assumed that neza was scum, likely in team with Pine/TW, and ofrhz going against him amounted to town points in my POV. I was aware of him dodging the Pine wagon, but i thought i had a good read of the neza slot and played accordingly.

What do you mean i jumped on the inferior choice? I am still surprised that neza flipped town, to be honest. Karnage ISO and actions were bad, so he was in my lynchpool, but not as bad as Neza - which i could also pair with suspected scum better.

[Farkran]

This Day is really problematic for me because remaining mine "the least null" reads. I had a lot of problem to label Evenstar, Billy or Rand/IOAM/Karn but you two became my rooted reads. I could force myself to think outside of my assumptions but it doesn't change the outcome. Ofrhz you should make an exception and create a wallpost.

Fark there is a thing that was bothering me for a while. Whenever you had a problem with me, Micc or Eva you asked us about it directly. During D1 you enjoyed talking about TW but never said something directly to him (aside 439, which was gentle suggestion). That is kind out of character for you. Aside of that you always praise people for independent thought but you didn't point out TW for being the opposite of this. What was in your mind there?

TW showed independend thought as soon as he replaced in. His reads were a full 180° from what Pine offered us, and i called him out for it in 324. He seemed more towny than what Pine was, see 341 for reasoning. That's when i started to switch my opinion from a Pine/Neza solved to a Micc/Neza solve. During that time i was considering both TW and ofrhz to be in the null-ish area.

Then the Neza vs Karnage wagons happened, and that scrambled my reads a fair bit. TW voted neza and then almost immediately switched over to Karnage as he was becoming more convenient. I did not like that, and i thought that, as scum, you wouldn't miss a chance to undo your bus strategy in favor of an easy mislynch, if you had opportunity to do so. Therefore TW went again down my scum ladder, as i described in 613.

Farkran why did you vote TW D2 instead of pushing Neza? Your end of day 1 posts seems to suggest you prefer a Neza push regardless of the Karnage flip

This post, and post 634 should also answer your question.

[Farkran]

Speaking about ofrzh, i have already scumcased him -partially- in my 659. The only action (or, rather, word) he has ever done against the Pine/TW slot is post 632, when the ship was already sinking and he might've afraid he couldn't have the chance to put his own hole in it - unlike what happened with the first wagon, which led us to suspect him (see 505). I can see him trying to get Neza into lylo for an easy win while Karnage would have been harder to sort and was threatening their slots, hence the sudden townread of Neza in the last minutes of d1 and subsequent wagon switch after having scumleaned the slot for the whole day, starting with post 122. Incidentally TW joined him in posts 574 to 577. In d3, neza was going down no matter what, so he had to settle with it.

Good things from ofrhz come mostly from his increased presence mid-to-late d1, when he actually started producing content instead of assessing the gamestate - an attitude which could lead to believe he was a town PR, which we are now certain he is not. The lack of N1K on ofrhz might be suspicious, but then again my PR pool was {Micc, ofrhz, Evenstar} so it is plausible that Evenstar was more universally read as PR. Incidentally she was also becoming a threat to the ofrhz slot since posts 464 to 467, which makes her a very desirable N1K for scum!ofrhz.
Karnage was also a threat since 420 and he got mislynched by the wagon filled by both ofhrz and TW (VC 587).

1. About Pine, he has a history of being inactive in his games. I didn’t find his lack of content particularly AI and he’s a fairly easy push D1 so I was wary of the wagon on him

I can link the games we were in together later when I’m not phone posting

2. What was wrong with my trajectory on Neza? I looked at his past town game, thought the things I thought we’re not very scum indicative considering meta, and I moved onto someone who made a bad push on me.

I voted Neza yesterday because his associations with flipped scum were bad.

3. Some of this seems to be fitting evidence to a theory especially the part about the Eva NK

1. I was wary of the wagon as well, but you looked more coasting than wary. You did neither support nor question the wagon, answered with wavy posts when asked about it (see 208), and mostly defended Pine while it was happening. As of post 268 you considered the chance of it being a full wagon town against scum, but never pursued the topic. You pretty much never interacted with the Pine/TW slot except for greetings and chit-chat.

2. I could read this as "let's go away from the universally recognized scum slot and omgus the other guy". I might be scumbiasing you right now, but... yeah, that's the feeling i got from this answer. You were scumleaning randbo since forever, then you voted away as soon as Neza became consensus. Instead, you pursued Karnage, which i can't deny was also scummy, but produced significantly less content than Neza and was attacking you specifically.

3. I had good advice in my last game from popsofctown - deadsheeping is not something to take lightly. Why do you think Evenstar died? What's your NKA?

[Farkran]

I was talking about the way you usually say things straightforward to people. Underline examples.

-spoiler snip-

This style of direct questions are typical for you but not towards TW.

What exactly do you find different about that post compared to the others you highlighted? I was asking TW to clarify whether he was aware or not of his vote on you, i think i was just as direct as i have always been. I waited for him to catch up on the thread, then prodded him about the vote against you. I noticed it because of the recent Neza vote and because i was drawing up a VC (435 and 437), so i wanted to question him about it. Had he answered he found you scummy, i would probably take note of that in view of a TW/Neza solve. Instead, he waved it in 441, which at the time was enough for me since i was looking elsewhere (Micc).

[Farkran]

If you don't see this then i guess i will take this as denial ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I still don't understand your point. You say i used a different tone when talking to TW in 439. I don't think this is true, and it sounds convenient from you to single out that post while disregarding any other time i addressed Pine or TW. There are plenty of examples i can quote from d1 and d2, but you chose to ignore all of them and exclude them from your spoiler post, picking that single line instead. I thought you were reaction testing me, but now it seems like you're trying to shade my position rather than trying to fish out possible scumtells. Please explain your point, because i don't see a true scumcase of Farkran here - i can see a RT question which has gone far beyond its purpose, so i am now wondering why you are still pushing that line of thought.

What do you mean i jumped on the inferior choice? I am still surprised that neza flipped town, to be honest. Karnage ISO and actions were bad, so he was in my lynchpool, but not as bad as Neza - which i could also pair with suspected scum better.

The 629 was this inferior choice. At this point you should have Neza as your main SR and leave TW for questioning. 613 shows that you wanted to consider ofrhz but you didn't do it. If in 634 you claim that Neza was scum for 90% then you should intent to lynch him, not possible partner. You really outperformed, if you made your mind about this whole case, without TW account.

Let me inside your head for a moment. I have been pursuing Neza and pairing him with Pine/TW ever since early game, back in my 184, and followed that line of reasoning in every single post i made up to end of D3. Sorting TW was crucial to a solve, especially after how he handled the end of d1. Could you point me at the flaws in my progression, or provide reasons why i would've shaded my partner for the whole game and bussed him twice instead of biting at the universally scumread slot?

It seems to me that you also jumped at the inferior choice in post 544, after ofrhz switched his vote. To quote what you said recently, "i am surprised you would find this SI". Could you explain why?

You also have yet to elaborate on why you never considered TW as scum ever since your unvote. If anything, you should have pushed him in d2 as well, but you didn't. Were you sold on a Neza/ofrhz solve? If that is the case, have yet to hear your full scumcase against ofrhz, or the reason why you didn't push him in d3 after you went as far as 626 and 660. Why the sudden change of mind?

[Farkran]

Let me inside your head for a moment. I have been pursuing Neza and pairing him with Pine/TW ever since early game, back in my 184, and followed that line of reasoning in every single post i made up to end of D3.

B. Pine/TW is town, at least one scum was on the wagon, and
1. Other scum was also on wagon.
2. Other scum was playing it safe or flaked.

Option B

is what i think is our

most likely

scenario, therefore at least one out of the 5 people involved is scum. Specifically, i think we are in B2: one scum on the wagon, the other flaked. My ideal scumguess would be Micc: his progression isn't really consistent (see 257 and 449), although his skill level allows him to spew town, on the other hand his range of scum moves is large enough to include his partner into his lynchpool - not enough to vote him as 3rd slot though, so i am now willing to rule out a {Micc, Neza} solve for the time being.

You wasn't sure about TW meantime Neza was

Neza is still very bad and likely my primary target for d2

Thats all i can see here. If you claim that you were sure about both of them this whole time then OK. It would explain things.

I was not 100% sure about either - i was much more confident about Neza being scum (hence the 90%), and TW made a very plausible pair with him. I would have been perfectly ok with a Neza lynch d2. Instead, a second pressure wagon on TW started, i was ok with it because sorting TW was crucial to my solve strategy and he lost a whole lot of town points for his behavior during the end of d1. As a consequence to this wagon, he fakeclaimed and got CC, then quickly selfhammered. I did not have a chance to press Neza, nor ofrhz, during d2. I did re-read ofrhz in d3, but after TW flipped i was even more confident that Neza would also flip scum and i wouldn't lynch anyone else that day.

You, on the other hand, were also accusing Pine earlier d1. You say you dropped the wagon to let the newcomers speak - why didn't you resume it in d2? Did the TW entrance convince you enough to look elsewhere? Or, at the time, were you sold on a different solve, i.e. neza/ofrhz?

I should also ask you the same question i asked ofrhz: why do you think evenstar was killed?

Also, what did you think when Billy suddenly became conf!town? Those two weren't that high in your TR list, did their flip twist your readings?

You also have yet to elaborate on why you never considered TW as scum ever since your unvote. If anything, you should have pushed him in d2 as well, but you didn't. Were you sold on a Neza/ofrhz solve? If that is the case, have yet to hear your full scumcase against ofrhz, or the reason why you didn't push him in d3 after you went as far as 626 and 660. Why the sudden change of mind?

You know the answer. You asked this just because you are mad at me.

I wouldn't say mad, rather skeptical about your current line of questioning. I am not getting your point, and this is worrying me about the intent behind the exchange we are having. That said, we're monopolizing the thread, and i still want to hear from ofrhz.

@ofrhz when you get a chance, could you post your scumcase for each of us?

[Farkran]

This post, and post 634 should also answer your question.

It doesn't really - if you're more confident in Neza being scum (and you were in 634), then why didn't you vote Neza?

From your perspective, even if you were right about Neza being scum, you could've been wrong about TW being his partner.

It doesn't make sense to push someone who is not your top scumread, because you need a flip to confirm your read before chasing possible partners. This makes even less sense considering you had been broadcasting suspicions on Micc on D1 and you were quick to jump on a wagon he started.

Why would it make less sense to join a wagon against a slot who i SR if there is another player i SR on him? I am aware of that, and i am aware of the fact that a claim or flip will help me sort both players. It would also help me sort Neza, which was the other high SR i had. This is called "info lynch", something that in this site you don't seem to value much, as i learned in my last game. I don't think info lynching and playing by associatives pre-flip are as useless as you describe it here. As a town player, i do everything in my power to create interactions between the players, by having them speak to me and to each other, consequently generating associative potential. Then you use those associatives to your advantage, with the knowledge that targeting either will also generate a strong reaction from the other(s).

This is what happened with randbo when he was put under pressure about the Pine wagon - his progression changed not because of Pine's actions (who didn't post *at all* in-between) but because Pine was becoming the general consensus lynch, which is the main reason why i started suspecting randbo was scummy. Specifically either in team with Pine (softbussing, aka shading without voting) or with someone on the wagon (shade the target but stay on a different agenda), in this case Micc. Sorting the slot was crucial to learn the standing of all these 3 people, and it would have a similar effect as sorting randbo/neza or Micc. Pushing Micc led me nowhere, so when the wagon on Pine derailed, i pushed Neza d1 and i REALLY wanted him to flip instead of Karnage, who was scummy but at the same time the lowest possible info lynch.

In d2, Micc and TW were again connected on a wagon i liked to pursue, therefore i jumped in again. This is not bussing - set aside the fact that i don't believe it would make sense to hardbus your partner d1, on a pressure wagon no less - this is generating information and VCA potential. I wouldn't know that TW was going to claim and get CC, but what would have happened if he was town and/or claimed something plausible? My next target would likely have been Micc, not Neza. Neza would probably remain the highest SR to me, and a lynch i would have liked to pursue by the end of the day, but why would it be the only vote i could cast?

[Farkran]

1. I was wary of the wagon as well, but you looked more coasting than wary.

But you were on the wagon? In general, it seems like your trajectories on both Pine and TW come from scum who feel like they need to bus. You never drove either wagon, but made sure you yourself was on it. And each time, you were simultaneously pressuring people on the wagon (like with Micc on the Pine wagon, and Billy on the TW wagon)

Yes, because that's where i should have been if i was scumleaning him, and pressuring those on wagon was the correct move to do to gain the highest amount of info from a flip or claim - i could suspect him, but i didn't know he was scum - the possibility of scum being on the wagon was significant, and in case of a town flip i need to know where to look at. Let me ask you, what makes you think i'd bus Pine/TW in that fashion specifically? Please elaborate in detail.

[Farkran]

You did neither support nor question the wagon, answered with wavy posts when asked about it (see 208), and mostly defended Pine while it was happening. As of post 268 you considered the chance of it being a full wagon town against scum, but never pursued the topic.

Why does this make me a scum partner? Why wouldn't I have tried harder to derail a wagon on my own partner? "Let's see where this Pine wagon goes" is pretty much how I felt about that at the time.

You did try. You started a counterwagon on randbo (122) as soon as Kerset voted Pine for the first time (114). Then you have been defending the Pine slot throughout the development of his wagon:

Spoiler: ofrhz about Pine/TW

Actually, @Micc and ofrhz, let me run that by you. An SE who rules scum (and if I'm not mistaken Pine likes rolling scum right), would they be more or less likely to take that game more seriously?

It would be pretty shitty if he rolled scum with a newbie and didn’t bother to play - but I’m not sure if everyone takes being an SE that seriously

To answer your question generally, I remember seeing a Mafia Discussion thread where the SE replace out rate is higher for scum and is slightly scum indicative.

But specifically, Pine is capable of producing content as scum. I would assume he’s not posting here because he hasn’t prioritized this game and don’t think it should be taken as AI

Alright. I had given Pine 36 hours. The site was down for most of the past like 24. I can extend it another 24 hours if people want. I noticed Zthat despite the site problems Pine was still posting in other games so I'm down with hammering today. I'm more interested in what the people off wagon think about that. Which I think means Eva, Lilli, Randbo, and ofrhz.

I don’t really think Pines chances of flipping scum are any greater than rand

There is this general contentment with the wagon, which either indicates that scum are content with the wagon going through or scum simply aren’t present — not very helpful analysis given that 3/9 people aren’t here

Pines reaction to the wagon on him is something I’ve seen from town!him in the past. He gets annoyed at the people voting him and then disappears after promising content.

It’s hard to defend someone who consistently prod dodges and doesn’t show up though

No I’d prefer Neza or Karnage today

Tw is in my “would but not preferred” lynch pool

I don’t think he’s scummy

He’s null

I think I’ve talked about both Neza and the Karnage slot but they’re both scummy

I mean, what do you expect as a way to defend him? You wouldn't go as far as "omg don't lynch him, he's absolutely town, please vote <random player> instead". I feel like i should have put more faith in my read of you in 659 and press you about your position with respect to Pine wagon. You didn't even answer that post - instead, later we basically omgussed each other (696 and related). I'd like to hear now your explanation about those posts: you say you didn't scumread Pine based on your knowledge of his meta, therefore all that happened thus far was NAI, am i correct? Why wouldn't you question him then, or the others on the wagon? To paraphrase your words, you seemed more focused on actually derailing the wagon than analyzing where it went by testing the people involved.

[Farkran]

You pretty much never interacted with the Pine/TW slot except for greetings and chit-chat.

I don't think this is true. We did talk about my slot

I think it is true. When and where did we talk about this? I read your ISO and skimmed it again right now, i didn't notice any interaction between you and Pine/TW besides RVS, greetings and chitchatting. You actually asked Pine a question in 113, he never answered it and you never came back to poke him about it. All your posts about Pine/TW are mostly in third person or wavy answers to other people's questions. Your ISO is pretty much full of this, but there's *no* direct interaction with two possible exceptions:

346-354. Where you agree on your readlists;

632. Where you asked him to claim - without even declaring intent - and he did nonetheless.

[Farkran]

I could read this as "let's go away from the universally recognized scum slot and omgus the other guy". I might be scumbiasing you right now, but... yeah, that's the feeling i got from this answer. You were scumleaning randbo since forever, then you voted away as soon as Neza became consensus. Instead, you pursued Karnage, which i can't deny was also scummy, but produced significantly less content than Neza and was attacking you specifically.

I gave my reasons for starting to lose confidence in scum!Neza towards the end of day 1. So I moved onto Karnage. What do you think of my trajectory there?

At the time, i thought that was bad progression and bad logic for dropping off a wagon because of just ate and a VT claim. Currently, i think you may have wanted to 1. switch target to a possible threat (Karnage SRed you); 2. gain the least possible amount of info from the flip, given that lilli/OIAM/Karnage had the least content of all the slots in the game; 2. save an easy mislynch for later, whereas if Karnage started to produce content he may have been harder to push.

[Farkran]

3. I had good advice in my last game from popsofctown - deadsheeping is not something to take lightly. Why do you think Evenstar died? What's your NKA?

Maybe scum thought she was a PR

So, who would you have killed if you were scum? Who would i have killed if i were scum? What about Kerset? Please elaborate in detail, names and reasons.

[Farkran]

I am waiting for ofrhz response on my questions above. I think i am close to a decision, i have read Evenstar ISO again for NKA purposes and i think it all makes sense if you read from scum!ofrhz POV. I'm from mobile right now, but i have taken a lot of notes at home.

[Farkran]

You know what? It doesn't really matter. I have been rereading again the ISOs of all people relevant to this case, and waiting more hours for ofrhz to answer isn't really going to change my mind. If kerset is scum, hats off to him, but it makes absolutely no sense that i'd vote him over ofrhz.

[Farkran]

NKA of Evenstar

Evenstar reads:
- TL Farkran
- Null/SL Kerset
- SL Pine
- SR ofhrz, then reconsiders, reads him as PR

Others reads of Evenstar:
- SL by Kerset
- TR by Farkran
- TR by ofrhz
- TR by the worst

1.

I think a NK should be inside the pool of players townread by scum who is instead scumread by the victim. This usually means that scum is not willing to push a mislynch against the subject, because they are widely townread and they have already decided to remove the threat by night killing. Evenstar falls perfectly into this category.
Reading her ISO you can easily see how she could be a threat to the scum team (209, 216 and 464), and she was townread by pretty much everyone besides Kerset. I was townleaning ofrhz at the time, this may be the reason why i survived N1 while Evenstar didn't.

2.

I also considered ofrhz could be PR and i was a little pinged he didn't die N1 - he was pointed out as non-VT by Evenstar in 463 and i also thought so after his sudden behavior change during the mid-to-late d1. I didn't put too much thought into this because i was also surprised *i* didn't die n1. Also i was focused on Neza, and d2 was so fast i didn't have time to look at the details. Then the masons outed and i kinda forgot about the whole thing until Neza flipped town.

3.

After hearing Evenstar was also in ofrhz's PR pool it makes a lot of sense that they would go for her, she was pretty much the perfect target for a pine/ofrhz team and no one else. I tried to think about who scum!me or scum!Kerset could have killed and i found out that she disaligned me and Pine as early as 53, it doesn't make sense for me to NK her. I would have NKed Ofrhz, or less likely Micc. Kerset never mentioned that Evenstar could be PR, and he thought she had given up with the game - i'm inclined to believe him and a NK of Evenstar wouldn't have been useful - i would have been MUCH more likely to die if Kerset was scum, or perhaps Micc.

This concludes my NKA.

The other aspects that led me to believe ofrhz is scum are:

• His lazy and sloppy defense of Pine despite a declared nullread of the slot, coasting the d1 wagon without making too much of a mess of it, basically trying to UTR his way out of the day if the wagon went through. Town!ofrhz would have either joined the wagon or questioned the participants.
  
• The weird synchronization of TW and ofrhz at the end of d1 despite very little interaction between the two slots during the day. Now that we know Neza is town, why would scum!TW switch his vote to Karnage? It doesn't make any sense, especially after you read 506-508: so much effort to scumcase Neza just to switch over to Karnage at the last second? There must be a reason why they wanted to remove Karnage rather than Neza, and i think it was because Neza is 1. an easy mislynch later in the game, 2. not a threat to their team. If we read Karnage's 420 instead, it is clear how he was a threat that could be easily removed, at the same time without having the town gaining too much info due to lack of content produced.
  
• By re-reading TW again i just noticed that their defense wasn't one-sided, yet it was not officially supported by either. TW reads in 327/352 and 421 show that he is declaring a nullread of ofrhz, however we find him defending the slot in posts 410, 432, 516, 574 for pretty much no reason at all. They have never put pressure on each other during the whole game, all the while nullreading one another but doing their best to avoid their own lynches.

VOTE: ofrhz, i don't think i am going to change my mind. Scum!ofrhz makes sense, scum!Kerset does not.

[Farkran]

@Kerset Ask me anything, but i think my defense is pretty straightforward:

1. I wouldn't bus my partner twice, in d1 and d2, on wagons started from pressure.
2. It wouldn't make any sense for me to NK Evenstar.
3. I did my best pro-town since the start of this game. Obviously scum!me would attempt to fake this but trust me i'm nowhere near this audacious when i'm scum. I feel the responsibility for my partner's victory and i know my death is 50% of his loss. It's different when you are town, if i am mislynched i can count on other people carrying me to victory and i don't care about dying as long as i have contributed to their analysis.

[Farkran]

I don't buy this. At this point you just make up arguments instead of developing them. It is kind of scary that scum!ofrhz didn't concede but some players might be persistent.
Farkran progression during this game was very transparent and I haven't seen him to make any suspicious swings. He was helpful to town and cautions about relations. He even acted like tsundere towards me.
Meantime ofrhz raised every flag he could. He was soft on Pine. He used awful narrative, which i was talking about a lot. For me he only became more active because i pushed him to do so. He changed his vote on Neza out of sudden. He clearly had ties with first scum.
I don't really trust in NKA in this game. There is only 1 important kill and too many hidden factors, like possibility of town protector to rely on this.
I could make more in depth analysis but this game ends right now so I would rather get some rest.

Sorry if i wasted your time by not voting earlier VOTE: ofrhz

YES

Thanks Kerset for believing in me, even if you were wrong, i did my best to fake my position as town and to disalign myself from Pine/TW. I actually considered killing you over billy N3, but... yeah, i thought i had more ground on you than i had on billy. I was actually worried you would turn against me when you asked why i addressed TW directly only once. I didn't even think about it and i had to make up some good bullshit.

[Farkran]

Also ofrhz you scared the shit out of me too with the first line in your 735. It was so spot-on i started to panic in the scum thread.

[Farkran]

Oh, and SORRY NEZA. You will find the scum thread full of apologies towards you, i needed to lynch someone and i just kept attacking you until you fell. I was kinda sad about all your ate because i knew you were the victim in this game but i couldn't drop my guard. Sorry if i got on your nerves, i know i haven't been kind towards your slot but i had to commit to my wincon no matter what.

[Farkran]

And thank you teacher for giving me the chance to play my first scum game in this site. I know you specifically placed me in the scumteam because you love me and you know i like playing scum. Randoming roles is overrated.

[Farkran]

Of course thank you everyone, it's been a pleasure playing with you all. I hope you stick around and perhaps we'll have another chance to play in the same team next time! Not sure if you look forward to it though, lol, i know i am often not pleasant to have around.

Also i hate timezones, i feel so lonely right now, nobody is here sharing emotions and thoughts about the game

[Farkran]

Farkran you were fantastic! Rarely does one get to go up such a formidable scum player such are yourself... in a newbie game no less. Even in lylo, I was doubting myself as to who scum really was

Well done! I certainly I hope I see you around in the forums in the future. I had a lot of fun playing with you

Thank you! I hoped i could bait out a vote from either of you, but ultimately i felt like you were never going to pick Kerset so i just made up my final scumcase and voted you, hoping that Kerset wouldn't change his mind from what he said in d3 and earlier.

Of course i will be playing again! I'm having a great time with this site and its players, i just have to decide where to signup next

[Farkran]

I don't buy this. At this point you just make up arguments instead of developing them. It is kind of scary that scum!ofrhz didn't concede but some players might be persistent.

Farkran progression during this game was very transparent and I haven't seen him to make any suspicious swings. He was helpful to town and cautions about relations. He even acted like tsundere towards me.

Meantime ofrhz raised every flag he could. He was soft on Pine. He used awful narrative, which i was talking about a lot. For me he only became more active because i pushed him to do so. He changed his vote on Neza out of sudden. He clearly had ties with first scum.
I don't really trust in NKA in this game. There is only 1 important kill and too many hidden factors, like possibility of town protector to rely on this.
I could make more in depth analysis but this game ends right now so I would rather get some rest.

Sorry if i wasted your time by not voting earlier VOTE: ofrhz

@Kerset Can i use this line as my signature for a while? I think it was really cool <3 i am a good tsundere, you know. Also Chiaki Nanami was my 2nd favorite character from danganronpa 2 (Mikan first, before -you know what-)

[Farkran]

You should be careful Fark. This games proves that you are scum each time you don't die N1.

I already was, and always have been

I have never, ever survived n1 as town, in like ~14 games i think. You guys don't know me well enough here!

[Farkran]

Also i joined a few queues on my own, i'm going to try Normal/Open, whichever starts first. I tried to apply for Open 769 with you guys (Kerset, TW, Billy) but it was already full and unless someone flakes i'm probably not joining in.

I also queued for Team Mafia 2020, i see that teacher and skitter are free agents in there - any interest to form a team? No offence taken if you don't want to.

[Farkran]

Farkran you are legit scary

Thanks, i like being scary

[Farkran]

Was Pine mad at you in scum thread?

No, i honestly don't know why he replaced out. He seemed happy to play at first but he was probably engaged in too many games at the same time

[Farkran]

Great game everyone and thanks for modding teacher. I think I said my piece in the dead thread, but playerlist was really fun, lots of talent in this group of newbies, and I would have voted wrong in lylo. Looking forward to seeing you all in future games!

Thanks Micc! You were *this* close to die n1 but we actually believed Evenstar was more PR-ish so we opted to remove her instead. I regret not trusting my gut about you, i did call you a PR back when Pine was L-3. Game would have been way different if we removed you, not sure if better or worse because Evenstar was a true wildcard. I think TW would have survived d2 if you weren't there, though.

[Farkran]

very very well played Farkran, if I had to guess at the last scum I would have gone for Kerset. Glad I pulled the N1 kill and did my job. Overall a good game!

Thanks, it's been a pleasure playing with you! Hope you stick around here, i'm looking forward to play with you again, possibly on the same team. I think you make a great town player, and any game you're scum in will probably send sparks flying.

We did get a little lucky with the mason rand (being on our NK path)

True that, and shame on me for not being able to identify the mason team. I thought after being obvmason in my first game it would've been easier. Anyways, they allowed me to survive N2 and N3 unquestioned - which is no small feat in itself - and without having to replan my NKs no less.

[Farkran]

OH my god i just finished reading the dead chat. It was awesome. AWESOME.

I knew we were putting up a good show, didn't imagine it would gather vip spectators though. Thank you everyone, especially my beloved pops (always <3 you). I'm so sorry to have broken your heart with my little dark secret of being a psychopathic mass murderer, but hey, no one is perfect, i hope you will be able to accept me and my deep love for you forever and ever...

Although i kinda find myself attracted to pretty much everyone in the dead chat right now. Evenstar, you did great to pull that NK, i expected that a VT flip would mean shit times for us, and TW died

@teacher be honest with us, even with your mechsolve non-kerset strat would you have voted me over ofrhz in lylo?

[Farkran]

Also the mason thread, wow. You guys were so close at some point.

[Farkran]

teacher make a fake dead PT with only like one or two posts to fake release and make Farkran super sad, then release the real one the next day

This was cruel though

[Farkran]

@Neza again

Before taking your self-esteem underground because of how you think you have played this game, please note that you replaced into a scummy slot and you were pushed by scum. This means, basically, that your first content posts weren't that bad, it's just that we were scumbiasing you to the point we pretty much didn't even read them. I mean, we did, but we didn't care, because a decision was already taken towards your slot. The only player in here that possibly cared to understand you, wrt the game state we were in, was probably Billy, and he was correct in doing so. Please don't take this on a personal level, because there isn't anything personal in scum pushing town, or town pushing who they believe is scum. It's part of the game.

If you are willing to accept some advice from me (feel free to ignore this post otherwise), i'd say that your analysis posts were ok from a new-ish player who just replaced in. It is true that you could delve a bit more into the intent of the players you were analyzing - other people have already spoken much about this, but yeah, i also think that it's the actions and the motive behind them, rather than the words said, which contribute most to the success your scumhunting quest. Always ask yourself

why

the guy did that, instead of just saying "hey, the guy did that!"

I suggest you join a game from the start and try again, results will likely be a lot different. Assuming irl allows you to do so, of course.

[Farkran]

Heh, early game failures are always fun to watch!

I have a question for you though, Kerset. Did my work in d4 amount to anything or you were just going to vote ofrhz no matter what?

[Farkran]

This whole time, i was really afraid that i might let scum!ofrhz get away with everything. The idea that I could be manipulated by ofrhz to mislynch and embarrass myself probably would not let me change my vote.

Good enough, i am a victim of this tunnelvision process too.

I want to play a game with Kerset or Farkran

Been wanting to play a game with you since forever

I'm queued in open 769-770 and normal. Kerset is already in open 769.

[Farkran]

Aw ok

Otherwise you may persuade teacher, skitter and kerset to form a team with me in Team Mafia 2020 so perhaps at least one of us will be playing with you!

[Farkran]

Oh i didn't notice skitter already joined a team. Teacher didn't though.

Kerset would you like to join TM2020?

[Farkran]

Nvm apparently i can't read, teacher is also already in a team

[Farkran]

[quote="In post 847Kerset would you like to join TM2020?[/quote]

Team "The Ballers"

[Farkran]

Why do i fail at bbcode. I am sad.

[Farkran]

Billy seems to TR everyone whose posts are longer than 3 sentences so he was first to reconsider neza. Ofrhz joined the flashwagon as 2nd (after you unvoted karmage to come for neza)

I really need to work on this.

Yes, sorry, that was my impression of your reads at the time. It is not uncommon though, the (activity = town :: lurking = scum) rule is a staple to most mafia players.

[Farkran]

Yup so @Kerset, basically we find 2 more people (teams are 4 people) and each of us plays in a different game (we choose who plays what), BUT the 4 of us share a private thread where we can discuss those ongoing games. We may help each other with scumreads, post wording, strategies, etc.

It starts on Jan 2nd and i assume it will last roughly 1 month - correct me if i'm wrong, the Large format is probably the longest and should have ~20 players (one per team).

[Farkran]

Perhaps Evenstar wants to join us? Or Billy?

[Farkran]

It would have been awesome to play with Micc, but yeah, he's the mod in one of the games. Otherwise i guess he would have been taken already, he's an awesome player and a veteran on the site, people would probably fight to have him in their team

[Farkran]

I appreciate the offer, but I need to improve before I commit to something like that. At the moment my reads are garbage and I'm usually more a liability than assistance. And I basicallybdont have a scum game. I was grateful for the opportunity to play mason with Micc.

I was just about to post that i PMed you and Evenstar to ask if you would have liked to join, sorry, didn't read this first!

If that is your only reason not to participate though, i suggest you to reconsider - i think this would be a great opportunity for you (and all of us, actually) to meet and play with some of the veterans of MafiaScum, learn some new strategies from them and from ourselves as we will be helping each other win in our respective games. I personally will be VERY active during the event, and since i will die n1 i'll be able to follow all your games at once

I think you have time for a couple more individual games before the event starts, too - but the deadline for signups is Nov 1st so we need to form a team rather quickly.

[Farkran]

(On a different topic, i applied for speakeasy and GTKAS, who do i have to contact to get access? I think i am meeting the requisites)

[Farkran]

I would wait like 48 to 72 hours before being a whiner about it, and I would post in the Help! section before PMing the mods at that point.

Oh, i have forgot to mention that i applied for them while this game was, like, on d1. Sorry, didn't mean to whine about it, i just took the chance to talk about it while we there were a lot of people reading here

[Farkran]

Ok, thanks for the help, will do right away <3