Newbie 1839: Game over

[nancy]

Votecount 3.01

talon152 (1)

~ RedFlavor

Not voting (4)

~ 3 Masons in a Trenchcoat, HeWhoSwims, talon152, wavemode

With 5 alive, 3 votes are needed to lynch.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-01-09 17:51:04).

[RedFlavor]

Talon, what do you think about who is scum?

[nancy]

Seeking a replacement for wavemode.

talon152 has been prodded.

[HeWhoSwims]

Lol

[3 Masons in a Trenchcoat]

Well, that is starting to ruin our theories. We were running on them bwing quiet, but they're really just inactive. Now we have to hope we can get reads on a couple of players thrown in at the last minute.

[nancy]

Do not discuss player replacement.

[nancy]

northsidegal replaces wavemode.

[talon152]

I think I have figured out what is going on here, but I want to get northsidegal's read on things first

[northsidegal]

hey guys! i'll do a full readthrough and post my thoughts sometime tomorrow, probably. until then, could we hold off on voting / could everyone unvote? i'd rather the game didn't end with a scum quickhammer before i get the chance to do anything.

[RedFlavor]

UNVOTE:

Ok

[HeWhoSwims]

I have to dodge a prod et cetera but there's not much to chat about atm

Well firstly happy new year everyone.

Secondly... I'd still think talon could really be our scum, not so sure about wave's slot.

[northsidegal]

okay, so thoughts having read the whole thread:

guys, why is 3masons still alive? everything i've read screams to me that he's been fakeclaiming and has just gotten away with it as a consequence of us being in setup b. like, let's assume that 3m actually is telling the truth and we are in the roleblocker setup. for oen, in the situation where there's a roleblocker, scum would

never

block the doctor while shooting for the cop – it just doesn't make mechanical sense. for two, if we assume that we're in the roleblocker setup, scum would know from 3m's claim that there's also a cop out there. with that in mind, it

again

doesn't make sense to not shoot the doctor – if scum shot a vanilla townie day one, then even if they hit one of the power roles day two, they would be entering lylo with at the very least two confirmed innocents.

i'm not sure i phrased this the best, so let me put it like this: if 3m was telling the truth, that means that scum deliberately left open the possibility that they entered a 5 person lylo with

two power roles and two cop investigations

. perhaps that's a case for a newbie scumteam, but i didn't get the sense from reading through the game that you all would make those kind of mistakes. what it says to me is that 3m is scum.


guilty said it'd be useful to look back on this, and i agree. take a look at this vote count from day one:

Votecount 1.05

3 Masons in a Trenchcoat (4)

~

wavemode

,

RedFlavor

,

Impede

,

GuiltyLion

talon152 (3)

~ HeWhoSwims,

acidphoenix

, 3 Masons in a Trenchcoat

RedFlavor

(1)

~

JunkoChan

JunkoChan

(1)

~ talon152

With 9 alive, 5 votes are needed to lynch.
Day 1 ends in (expired on 2017-12-21 20:42:18).

i've colored in green everyone who i know to be town, assuming impede wasn't lying about his hypoclaim (which i sincerely doubt he was). what i get from this is that scum were most likely pushing the counterwagon to 3m. that would place hewhoswims as more suspicious as to 3m's partner, although i could definitely see the world in which talon is the buddy and 3m was bussing his inactive partner. the lack of a quickhammer today while 3m and hws were both online would also point to that, although i've known newbies too scared to take the quickhammer even when it's wide open.


i'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on this, but i'm pretty sure that's where my vote is going today.

[northsidegal]

EBWOP: Although, a smart player would still hypo claim both and not take everything I say at face value. However, in that vein of logic, I'm not believing everything you say.

You're not conf town

, and I don't consider that "slip" enough evidence.

I'm just trying to cover my bases in case the cop lied to protect themselves

. I'm still reading a townlean on Red and Swims. Honestly, mafia's two best tactics right now are stall or to rush us to a poor decision. We need more out of wave and talon. Until we do, they're on the suspicion block. No voting yet though.

i also don't like 3m's trying to cast doubt on redflavor's conftown status. especially given that he was the one who actually suggested the cop lie about the hypoclaim in the first place:

Also, I feel like Junko is asking for a lot of information in the hypo guesses. It is hellful for the towm, but it's also dangerous in letting the mafia know who the cop is.

Heads up cop: It's okay for you to lie, as long as you don't call townies mafia

. You can try to keep them off your tail, or you can tell us what you saw last night and point at a killer.

3m, why would it have been a good idea for the cop to lie in their hypoclaim?

[northsidegal]

We have to believe the doc claim because we know there is/was a cop, so there's no other PR that can CC. However scum couldn't have known for sure that there was a cop. They do of course know they have a roleblocker which makes it possible for there to be a cop-doc duo or a BP-jail duo. Ergo if we had a BP or jailer there would've been a power role that could've CC'd. It would not make sense to me for scum to claim doctor in this case because of the risk...

don't forget about column b in the setup, where there's nobody to counterclaim a fake doctor claim:

Spoiler:

newbie setup information

Matrix6 (designed by Cogito Ergo Sum):

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

Each Newbie Game will be given a setup that incorporates either one row or one column. The remaining six roles will be filled in by

Mafia Goons

and

Vanilla Townies

appropriately, to create a

2-Mafia

and

7-Town

setup.


All Newbie games use the Natural Action Resolution system for determining Night action effects.

Roleblocker

actions will take precedence over

Jailkeeper

actions should that apply. The

1-shot Bulletproof

is a passive ability that cannot be

roleblocked

.

everyone should also remember that 3m was at l-1 with intent to hammer before his claim – it's not like it was unprompted. it makes perfect sense for scum to claim a power role in that situation – either they actually get lucky and nobody can counterclaim them (like i suspect happened this game) and they get falsely confirmed as town, or a real power role would be forced to counterclaim, which scum could then nightkill (or potentially even get the counterclaimer lynched).

[3 Masons in a Trenchcoat]

You're absolutely right. I should not be alive. I am still unsure as to why scum hasn't killed me, but I have teo theories.

1) Scum is trying to frame me as scum by keeping alive a role that should be dead.

2) Scum is lazy AF and doesn't actually read the game carefully. This supports the idea that the inactives are scum.

As for why I don't 100% trust the cop claim: My newbie experienced butt would choose to lie on what my hypo claim is if I'm cop so that the scum doesn't know I'm cop. Scum could block the doc and kill the police. I would only do that, though, if my cop investigation turned up a scum.

And why did I not take the quickhammer? Because the last hammer ended up in a town lynch, and we had two players who hadn't posted. With two complete unknowns, I don't want to take the risk when we could potentially discover a more guaranteed scum. And the last hammer vaused a lot of problems because we were trying to interrogate someone and discover if they were scum. One person "saw a slip" and hammered a lynch on town. I'm trying to avoid that.

[northsidegal]

You're absolutely right. I should not be alive. I am still unsure as to why scum hasn't killed me, but I have teo theories.

1) Scum is trying to frame me as scum by keeping alive a role that should be dead.

this is an easy defense, but as a strategy i think it just doesn't make sense. if a roleblocker existed, then keeping you alive would also require roleblocking you every night. that, however, would mean that scum wouldn't get two chances to "look" for the cop in their night actions, both with the roleblock and with the kill.

2) Scum is lazy AF and doesn't actually read the game carefully. This supports the idea that the inactives are scum.

are you trying to say that scum didn't realize that you've claimed doctor? that seems completely unrealistic, and actually kind of disingenuous. everyone has at one point or another recognized in one of their posts your doctor claim. it seems like you're reaching for reasons to continue to push your "scum are in the inactives" idea.

As for why I don't 100% trust the cop claim: My newbie experienced butt would choose to lie on what my hypo claim is if I'm cop so that the scum doesn't know I'm cop. Scum could block the doc and kill the police. I would only do that, though, if my cop investigation turned up a scum.

trading one for one town for scum is always beneficial to the town, even if you're a power role. i've played with impede before and he's a smart cookie – there's no chance he lied about his hypoclaim.

And why did I not take the quickhammer? Because the last hammer ended up in a town lynch, and we had two players who hadn't posted. With two complete unknowns, I don't want to take the risk when we could potentially discover a more guaranteed scum. And the last hammer vaused a lot of problems because we were trying to interrogate someone and discover if they were scum. One person "saw a slip" and hammered a lynch on town. I'm trying to avoid that.

hm? i don't think i asked why you didn't quickhammer talon. the easy answer for any townie should be "because i don't know if he's scum or not and if i'm wrong then that ends the game in a loss" – not sure how to feel about this seeming overexplanation.

[3 Masons in a Trenchcoat]

You're absolutely right. I should not be alive. I am still unsure as to why scum hasn't killed me, but I have teo theories.

1) Scum is trying to frame me as scum by keeping alive a role that should be dead.

this is an easy defense, but as a strategy i think it just doesn't make sense. if a roleblocker existed, then keeping you alive would also require roleblocking you every night. that, however, would mean that scum wouldn't get two chances to "look" for the cop in their night actions, both with the roleblock and with the kill.

2) Scum is lazy AF and doesn't actually read the game carefully. This supports the idea that the inactives are scum.

are you trying to say that scum didn't realize that you've claimed doctor? that seems completely unrealistic, and actually kind of disingenuous. everyone has at one point or another recognized in one of their posts your doctor claim. it seems like you're reaching for reasons to continue to push your "scum are in the inactives" idea.

As for why I don't 100% trust the cop claim: My newbie experienced butt would choose to lie on what my hypo claim is if I'm cop so that the scum doesn't know I'm cop. Scum could block the doc and kill the police. I would only do that, though, if my cop investigation turned up a scum.

trading one for one town for scum is always beneficial to the town, even if you're a power role. i've played with impede before and he's a smart cookie – there's no chance he lied about his hypoclaim.

And why did I not take the quickhammer? Because the last hammer ended up in a town lynch, and we had two players who hadn't posted. With two complete unknowns, I don't want to take the risk when we could potentially discover a more guaranteed scum. And the last hammer vaused a lot of problems because we were trying to interrogate someone and discover if they were scum. One person "saw a slip" and hammered a lynch on town. I'm trying to avoid that.

hm? i don't think i asked why you didn't quickhammer talon. the easy answer for any townie should be "because i don't know if he's scum or not and if i'm wrong then that ends the game in a loss" – not sure how to feel about this seeming overexplanation.

For the first three points, I'm still a newbie to the game and make a lot of wrong assumptions. My logic isn't the strongest, and I agree with your points. I'm still the doctor, that has been established. I still don't know why I'm alive, but all I can really say is that you'll have to trust me. At least we can also trust the cop claim.

For the last point, you've been casting suspicion on me. From my perspective, you've been attacking a confirmed town from the beginning. I feel as if I have to defend my ideas if I can. Despite its logical nature, emotions still play into the game of mafia. If I can't establish some amount of credibility in what I say, then it appears that I'm scum that is making up bullshit.

And yes, mathematically I could be scum. And logically scum should have killed me night one. But we are still in a newbie game. The possibility exists there's a newbie scum who is making just as many mistakes as I have made being town.

[HeWhoSwims]

If we have a roleblocker however, then they could block the doctor and try to shoot the cop based on luck. That does make sense, at least to me. If they shoot the cop or the roleblocker is lynched, they kill the doc without any repercussions. That would be a better move for scum than shooting the doctor. Killing doc takes out one PR and for sure leaves the cop in the game. Blocking the doc and shooting a townie with possibility of the cop, you neutralise the doctor and have a shot of taking out the only other PR that's now worth anything.

if 3m was telling the truth, that means that scum deliberately left open the possibility that they entered a 5 person lylo with two power roles and two cop investigations. perhaps that's a case for a newbie scumteam, but i didn't get the sense from reading through the game that you all would make those kind of mistakes. what it says to me is that 3m is scum.

This however.... if worrying. Scum wouldn't know who the cop is so it is possible they do end up with 2 conftowns. But on the other hand if we're doubting 3m... then he's not that conftown is he?

I too doubt the cop lied during hypoclaim. If you speak the truth, worst case scenario is that scum catches on and you're killed but town can move forward, best case scenario you find scum and town saves themselves at f5 lylo. So Red is clear.

Wow, I never caught 284. 3M why should cop lie? The point of the actual hypoclaim is to have a cop result if the cop is killed. Funnily enough... I think you even were the one suggesting Scum was going after the cop while roleblocking you.

Yes, we could be in column B. If scum!3M claimed Doctor then I'd assume they knew they wouldn't be counterclaimed, ergo that we would be in setup B. Scum then would be two goons. There are 4 possible setups with only goons; 1/3/B/C. Out of those only C contains a doctor, all the others could counterclaim (Jailer, 1SBP, actual Doctor respectively). So how would scum be supposed to know they were in setup B? Take a chance with a 25% chance of succeeding and 75% chance of being called out and lynched day 1?

It is very well possible that scum is trying to frame 3M.

Let's assume we make it to the night (Probably by lynching talon - I still have them as scum...). RedF is conftown so to speak, so Mason if he's doc would protect him. And knowing this, scum would likely not try to kill him. Bringing the kill pool to me, 3M and north with one of those being scum. If scum kills town!3M then they get rid of the biggest mislynch opportunity. Leaves me and north. Meaning whichever one of us is scum, would be best off killing the other.

But that is assuming 3M is town, because if he's scum he would kill either me or north, frame the other, win. Ergo how sure exactly are we 3M is town? I, for now, can believe Mason and would be more suspicious of the wave-north slot. Talon however I still have labeled as scum for contributing just about nothing to the game.

[RedFlavor]

%25 is not a very low chance
However I think we should lynch talon first because he isnt even defending himself

[HeWhoSwims]

Yeah, but personally I'd find a 75% chance of failing too high when you could also just claim VT.

[3 Masons in a Trenchcoat]

%25 is not a very low chance
However I think we should lynch talon first because he isnt even defending himself

"Isn't defending himself" could easily be "is unable to post and can be considered inactive." I agree that his lack of contribution earlier in the game is scummy, but he's being prodded. His lack of defense could just be a town player that's inactive. We don't know. I think we need to wait a bit.

[HeWhoSwims]

I mean we're on day 3 and it's his second prod no? That doesn't quite validate his inactivity. And when he does post it barely helps anything.

[northsidegal]

all of this is directed towards everyone, not just hws

If we have a roleblocker however, then they could block the doctor and try to shoot the cop based on luck. That does make sense, at least to me. If they shoot the cop or the roleblocker is lynched, they kill the doc without any repercussions. That would be a better move for scum than shooting the doctor. Killing doc takes out one PR and for sure leaves the cop in the game. Blocking the doc and shooting a townie with possibility of the cop, you neutralise the doctor and have a shot of taking out the only other PR that's now worth anything.

well, this is going into more technicalities and mechanical plays than i usually like to for a newbie game, but think of it like this: if scum go with the plan you're suggesting, then each night they only get one shot to look for the cop, and that's with their nightkill. they're forced to keep the roleblock on 3m. however, if scum killed 3m night one, they still end up with one shot to look for the cop (in their roleblock), and then each night onwards they get two chances – one with the nightkill, and one with the roleblock. the roleblock serves as another chance to look for the cop because the cop would be forced to claim that they were roleblocked when people are hypoclaiming, and scum would know that they had hit their mark.

the fact that you think this makes me pause as to whether it could actually be a you/talon scumteam and you just described to me your rationale on your night actions, but that doesn't make sense given how much you've pushed for his lynch today. it doesn't seem to me like you'd go for bussing in a lylo situation, so i'm right back to where i started – 3m is scum.

Yes, we could be in column B. If scum!3M claimed Doctor then I'd assume they knew they wouldn't be counterclaimed, ergo that we would be in setup B. Scum then would be two goons. There are 4 possible setups with only goons; 1/3/B/C. Out of those only C contains a doctor, all the others could counterclaim (Jailer, 1SBP, actual Doctor respectively). So how would scum be supposed to know they were in setup B? Take a chance with a 25% chance of succeeding and 75% chance of being called out and lynched day 1?

it's like i said, 3m was about to be lynched. as scum, the

best play

there is to fakeclaim a power role – either you get lucky and you get falsely confirmed, or a real power role is forced to out themselves, and the second scum can nightkill that person. all claiming vanilla townie would have done would be to get himself lynched – after all, there's no reason to hesitate on hammering a vanilla townie that you already think is scum. it's not a risky play at all – it's actually the optimal play, for scum.

[northsidegal]

i'd also rather not lynch talon today. for one, it seems like he's unable to post rather than choosing not to post. for two, i'd rather lynch the scum that i'm a lot more confident on and then tomorrow, if i'm still alive, we can work on figuring out who the partner was. for three, there's always the chance that he gets replaced and we can get a more accurate read on the replacement who will hopefully be a bit more verbose.

[HeWhoSwims]

Keeping 3M alive has a bonus in that he was already a suspect, a possible distraction from the actual scums.

Yes, in what you are saying, scum has to keep the roleblock on 3M, but the only other role they could roleblock is the cop. They'd have to blindly guess who the doctor is. So, that's the same as trying to kill the doctor. If you are scum and can pick between killing a cop by chance or roleblocking a cop by chance, which one would you choose? ...right.

Yes, killing 3M night 1 and trying to roleblock the cop doubles the odds for scum N2. But it is still possible to miss the cop, and you won't ever really know if you roleblocked the cop or not. You only know you disabled the cop if... indeed... you killed them, and did so while roleblocking the other town PR.

"The fact that you think this makes me pause" seems weird to me. Why would it be weird for me to try to discuss stuff, instead of brainlessly follow your claim?

I can see that it's true though that fakeclaiming might be the better play for the reasons you mentioned.

Talon is the only person I feel hasn't contributed to the game like the other 4 have. I don't see why we don't lynch him. If he's town, he can thank himself for the lynch, because over 3 gamedays he barely has had any influence on the game. If he knew or even thought of the possibility beforehand that he wouldn't be able to contribute for like a month, why would he even sign up? Besides, he's been prod dodging, he's received only his second now despite barely posting for the entire game.