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Thespio
Mafia Scum
 
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Joined: June 03, 2015
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Post Post #1425  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:43 am

In post 1423, Munchmellow wrote:
In post 1421, Thespio wrote:No I did, my logic on ratios stands, I’m just not sure what you thought I would gain as scum, at that point I was making sure we all could avoid a day like today.


I don't get this logic. I could get it coming from VT, but a PR is much more important for town and saying it's better to lynch a PR than no lynch... no, I totally disagree and this is what it makes it hard for me to believe your claim.


also the logic is D1 ML doesnt matter because the odds are significantly against us D1, so regardless of role D1 we should kill which puts us 2 scum to 5 town D2, we also want a lynch even if its a ML it sets us up better for D3, D3 should be at worst 2 scum, 3 town, a 2/5 chance of killing scum at worst. 1/5 in a perfect world. Because we set up lynch we need to be careful not to kill anyone but muh (saying this knowing out of the 2 of us I am town), If you kill me we lose, if we kill outside of muh and I then we only have half the odds of killing scum. This is a game but there is math behind it.

muh316
Goon
 
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
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Post Post #1426  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:58 pm

In post 1424, Thespio wrote:Today with no CC it would be unwise to kill me, especially since the night will confirm my role, If you dont buy my claim who does that put next on the chopping block for you?


With 72 hours left in the day and no other significant developments, it's far too risky to look outside of lynching either me or you. If we start looking outside this pool, town's chances of lynching scum are lowered significantly. Within our pool, there's a 50% chance of catching scum because one of us is lying (it's you).

Thespio
Mafia Scum
 
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Joined: June 03, 2015
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Post Post #1427  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:14 pm

In post 1426, muh316 wrote:
In post 1424, Thespio wrote:Today with no CC it would be unwise to kill me, especially since the night will confirm my role, If you dont buy my claim who does that put next on the chopping block for you?


With 72 hours left in the day and no other significant developments, it's far too risky to look outside of lynching either me or you. If we start looking outside this pool, town's chances of lynching scum are lowered significantly. Within our pool, there's a 50% chance of catching scum because one of us is lying (it's you).


I didn’t say to look outside, I’m making a point, if I’m scum a fakeclaim is dumb, it can be countered and it puts me in line even though I wasn’t even next to be lynched.

Nauci
Mafia Scum
 
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Joined: October 10, 2017
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Post Post #1428  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:49 pm

Vote Count 3.3

muh316 (2) - Enter , RCEnigma (PvtUrist) , MagikHorse , RCEnigma (PvtUrist) , Thespio , Enter

Thespio (1) - muh316

RCEnigma (PvtUrist) (0) -

Munchmellow (0) -

MagikHorse (0) - Enter

Enter (0) -

UNVOTE/Not Voting (3) - muh316 , RCEnigma (PvtUrist) , Munchmellow , Thespio , MagikHorse , Enter , Enter , Enter , RCEnigma (PvtUrist) , Enter

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch or 3 votes to not lynch.

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2019-02-08 16:00:00).

muh316
Goon
 
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
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Post Post #1429  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:58 pm

In post 1427, Thespio wrote:I didn’t say to look outside, I’m making a point, if I’m scum a fakeclaim is dumb, it can be countered and it puts me in line even though I wasn’t even next to be lynched


A fakeclaim is very convenient for scum in the goon/goon setup where it's guaranteed that there's no possible counterclaim.

Thespio
Mafia Scum
 
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Joined: June 03, 2015
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Post Post #1430  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:04 pm

In post 1429, muh316 wrote:A fakeclaim is very convenient for scum in the goon/goon setup where it's guaranteed that there's no possible counterclaim.


Now look who is getting into WIFOM, why would I fake claim if im not in anyones top two? If I was scum and you and RCE/Munch are in everyones top two scum reads why wouldnt i just let them kill you? Oh wait its because im actually a tracker and I was asked to claim. You/munch/rce should have fake claimed, you would have had a better chance of pulling the wool over everyones eyes.

MagikHorse
Goon
 
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Post Post #1431  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:12 pm

Even with Goon/Goon as a possibility, it's been pretty solidly established that Thespio has been playing like a power role enough that Enter detected those signs and called him on it. Either this is something Thespio had planned from the beginning of the game and put into their play so subtly that it got Enter thinking it or it's simply true to begin with.

Therein lies a point: it's nearly impossible to fake a PR's playstyle so subtly without underdoing or overdoing it (which either makes it unnoticeable or so blatant as to be useless), and doing so requires an exorbitant amount of skill. It makes no sense for Thespio to simultaneously be playing really awkwardly/poorly and with the near godlike skill and subtlety necessary to fake the minute signs of being a PR in this manner. Him being a legitimate PR is the only real way his play makes much sense, despite its weaknesses and the chance of 2 Goons.

muh316
Goon
 
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Joined: September 03, 2009
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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Post Post #1432  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:49 pm

In post 1431, MagikHorse wrote:Even with Goon/Goon as a possibility, it's been pretty solidly established that Thespio has been playing like a power role enough that Enter detected those signs and called him on it. Either this is something Thespio had planned from the beginning of the game and put into their play so subtly that it got Enter thinking it or it's simply true to begin with.

Therein lies a point: it's nearly impossible to fake a PR's playstyle so subtly without underdoing or overdoing it (which either makes it unnoticeable or so blatant as to be useless), and doing so requires an exorbitant amount of skill. It makes no sense for Thespio to simultaneously be playing really awkwardly/poorly and with the near godlike skill and subtlety necessary to fake the minute signs of being a PR in this manner. Him being a legitimate PR is the only real way his play makes much sense, despite its weaknesses and the chance of 2 Goons.


I wouldn't expect any less from his scum partner. You're stating his "Godlike skill" as fact whereas it's a matter of opinion.

Also, now that you brought it up, I never found out why Enter called him out for the PR claim. Enter, why did you think he's a PR?

muh316
Goon
 
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Joined: September 03, 2009
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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Post Post #1433  (ISO)  » Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:50 pm

In post 1430, Thespio wrote:Now look who is getting into WIFOM, why would I fake claim if im not in anyones top two? If I was scum and you and RCE/Munch are in everyones top two scum reads why wouldnt i just let them kill you? Oh wait its because im actually a tracker and I was asked to claim. You/munch/rce should have fake claimed, you would have had a better chance of pulling the wool over everyones eyes.


Now look who is getting into WIFOM.

Thespio
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Post Post #1434  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:43 am

In post 1433, muh316 wrote:
In post 1430, Thespio wrote:Now look who is getting into WIFOM, why would I fake claim if im not in anyones top two? If I was scum and you and RCE/Munch are in everyones top two scum reads why wouldnt i just let them kill you? Oh wait its because im actually a tracker and I was asked to claim. You/munch/rce should have fake claimed, you would have had a better chance of pulling the wool over everyones eyes.


Now look who is getting into WIFOM.


Except it’s not, WIFOM is debating something we can’t know anything about, readlists are posted. We all know what everyone thought about me so examining it isn’t wifom, cute you think so though.

Munchmellow
Goon
 
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Joined: December 18, 2018
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Post Post #1435  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:51 am

In post 1427, Thespio wrote:I didn’t say to look outside, I’m making a point, if I’m scum a fakeclaim is dumb, it can be countered and it puts me in line even though I wasn’t even next to be lynched.


No, it would be dumb in other circumstances. Right now scum knows in which scenario we are, so if we are in C column, scum knows there will be no counterclaim and with a mislynch town looses, so no, it is not dumb but very smart.

Thespio
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Post Post #1436  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:55 am

In post 1435, Munchmellow wrote:
In post 1427, Thespio wrote:I didn’t say to look outside, I’m making a point, if I’m scum a fakeclaim is dumb, it can be countered and it puts me in line even though I wasn’t even next to be lynched.


No, it would be dumb in other circumstances. Right now scum knows in which scenario we are, so if we are in C column, scum knows there will be no counterclaim and with a mislynch town looses, so no, it is not dumb but very smart.


Ok again, before my claim who did you have as your top scum? Everyone else had muh, why would I throw myself under a bus with a Pr claim if I wasn’t under threat?

Munchmellow
Goon
 
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Post Post #1437  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:59 am

Enter and RCE, how do you feel about Thespio's claim? Do you believe it?
Enter probably does, since he read him as a PR. If you do, why aren't you voting muh?

Munchmellow
Goon
 
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Post Post #1438  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:10 am

In post 1436, Thespio wrote:Ok again, before my claim who did you have as your top scum? Everyone else had muh, why would I throw myself under a bus with a Pr claim if I wasn’t under threat?

Timing of a claim seems off to me, if you are town. You weren't under a threat, so why claim. Just because Enter said so? If muh is scum and you are tracker, then you are gonna get killed tonight. So why claim to lynch a player who was mostly scumread and you had other options to push his lynch. And you could try to find his partner tonight.
Before your claim, I was thinking you could be scum.

Munchmellow
Goon
 
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Post Post #1439  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:17 am

@RCE, what do you think about Thespio playing his whole game as a PR (what Magik and Enter say was quite obvious/ the only way his play makes sense). Do you see it too?

Thespio
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Post Post #1440  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:30 am

In post 1438, Munchmellow wrote:
In post 1436, Thespio wrote:Ok again, before my claim who did you have as your top scum? Everyone else had muh, why would I throw myself under a bus with a Pr claim if I wasn’t under threat?

Timing of a claim seems off to me, if you are town. You weren't under a threat, so why claim. Just because Enter said so? If muh is scum and you are tracker, then you are gonna get killed tonight. So why claim to lynch a player who was mostly scumread and you had other options to push his lynch. And you could try to find his partner tonight.
Before your claim, I was thinking you could be scum.


Everyone else had me middle of the road, as scum does a claim benifit me if it guarantees I’m on the chopping block? You recognize I wasn’t under a ton of pressure, and yes I was kind of shocked my Pr had been called, so I claimed, I didn’t immediately claim. Also It was all I had when I claimed seeing as I got a NR N1.

Munchmellow
Goon
 
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Post Post #1441  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:43 am

In post 1440, Thespio wrote:Everyone else had me middle of the road, as scum does a claim benifit me if it guarantees I’m on the chopping block?

But it doesn't put you on a chopping block. There is no way to prove you are fakeclaiming. No way town would kill you, specially because muh was scumread. I was the only one who scumread you and even I am not gonna vote for you. Because yes, you could be town PR and I might be biased because I scumread you before the claim and because I don't agree with you on a self-sacrificing topic.

Thespio
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Post Post #1442  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:55 am

In post 1441, Munchmellow wrote:
In post 1440, Thespio wrote:Everyone else had me middle of the road, as scum does a claim benifit me if it guarantees I’m on the chopping block?

But it doesn't put you on a chopping block. There is no way to prove you are fakeclaiming. No way town would kill you, specially because muh was scumread. I was the only one who scumread you and even I am not gonna vote for you. Because yes, you could be town PR and I might be biased because I scumread you before the claim and because I don't agree with you on a self-sacrificing topic.


Then who do you propose we lynch?

MagikHorse
Goon
 
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Post Post #1443  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:42 am

In post 1441, Munchmellow wrote:
In post 1440, Thespio wrote:Everyone else had me middle of the road, as scum does a claim benifit me if it guarantees I’m on the chopping block?

But it doesn't put you on a chopping block. There is no way to prove you are fakeclaiming. No way town would kill you, specially because muh was scumread. I was the only one who scumread you and even I am not gonna vote for you. Because yes, you could be town PR and I might be biased because I scumread you before the claim and because I don't agree with you on a self-sacrificing topic.

I still remember you saying "oh, he was lying, let's lynch him" (post ). You were eager enough to try and put him on the chopping block earlier as proven by that, and now you say he's not on the chopping block at all? Why the sudden change of heart?

Enter
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Post Post #1444  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:29 am

In post 1431, MagikHorse wrote:Even with Goon/Goon as a possibility, it's been pretty solidly established that Thespio has been playing like a power role enough that Enter detected those signs and called him on it. Either this is something Thespio had planned from the beginning of the game and put into their play so subtly that it got Enter thinking it or it's simply true to begin with.

Therein lies a point: it's nearly impossible to fake a PR's playstyle so subtly without underdoing or overdoing it (which either makes it unnoticeable or so blatant as to be useless), and doing so requires an exorbitant amount of skill. It makes no sense for Thespio to simultaneously be playing really awkwardly/poorly and with the near godlike skill and subtlety necessary to fake the minute signs of being a PR in this manner. Him being a legitimate PR is the only real way his play makes much sense, despite its weaknesses and the chance of 2 Goons.

This, but...

His play still kind of makes sense as scum... just less so.
In post 1432, muh316 wrote:
In post 1431, MagikHorse wrote:Even with Goon/Goon as a possibility, it's been pretty solidly established that Thespio has been playing like a power role enough that Enter detected those signs and called him on it. Either this is something Thespio had planned from the beginning of the game and put into their play so subtly that it got Enter thinking it or it's simply true to begin with.

Therein lies a point: it's nearly impossible to fake a PR's playstyle so subtly without underdoing or overdoing it (which either makes it unnoticeable or so blatant as to be useless), and doing so requires an exorbitant amount of skill. It makes no sense for Thespio to simultaneously be playing really awkwardly/poorly and with the near godlike skill and subtlety necessary to fake the minute signs of being a PR in this manner. Him being a legitimate PR is the only real way his play makes much sense, despite its weaknesses and the chance of 2 Goons.


I wouldn't expect any less from his scum partner. You're stating his "Godlike skill" as fact whereas it's a matter of opinion.

Also, now that you brought it up, I never found out why Enter called him out for the PR claim. Enter, why did you think he's a PR?

He played like a PR. A lot of the time PEa come off as scummy because they'll ask questions without pushing scum reads or they'll be really pushy and such and this is because they have to know more than a VT to successfully pull off their Night Action.

I don't know if I believe it, because his claim was ... inconsistent with what I'd expect from him as far as investigations and reactions to such.

I don't know. I'm sorry I'm making a trip across the country at the moment, I can get to this in more detail tonight and tomorrow.

Thespio
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Post Post #1445  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:32 am

In post 1444, Enter wrote:I don't know if I believe it, because his claim was ... inconsistent with what I'd expect from him as far as investigations and reactions to such.

I don't know. I'm sorry I'm making a trip across the country at the moment, I can get to this in more detail tonight and tomorrow.


you're good, we still have time, there isnt a ton to read but I would recommend a look at it.

Enter
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Post Post #1446  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:13 am

The only thing that would help, I think, at this point is if everyone cased their largest suspect and who they think their partner is - don't bother responding to each other, I think, and try and keep word count to a minimum. I'm trying to gauge some things that ... would help if I didn't have people arguing semantics in the thread.

Also, Thespian, walk me through the basic thought process for all your major actions this game, and munch walk me through your thought process for an end of day Lynch where you have two wagons at l-1 and you're the deciding vote

muh316
Goon
 
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Post Post #1447  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:43 am

In post 1434, Thespio wrote:Except it’s not, WIFOM is debating something we can’t know anything about, readlists are posted. We all know what everyone thought about me so examining it isn’t wifom, cute you think so though.


"If I was scum and you and RCE/Munch are in everyones top two scum reads why wouldnt i just let them kill you?"

"If this, then that" statements are WIFOM because they're dependent on uncertainty.

muh316
Goon
 
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
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Post Post #1448  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:51 am

My largest suspect is Thespio because he's obviously lying. Possible scum partners for Thespio are Magik and Enter while leaning a lot more on scumMagik.

Magik because he believed the claim without question and is defending Thespio's claim and is pushing everyone else to believe him as well. I've been scumreading him since the beginning for trying to get townie points and scummy behavior in general. This fakeclaim solidifies my scum read on him.

Enter because he pushed Thespio to claim. I'm imagining the scum chat going something like Enter and Thespio planning out a strategy. The strategy could be that Enter first calls him out and then Thespio says, "alright you got me I'm a PR." This makes the claim more believable. At the end all they need is to convince one townie that Thespio is actually a PR. In this case Magik. This ends up putting town at a 3-3 deadlock and so a townie will probably cave in and lynch in favor of scum.

muh316
Goon
 
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Post Post #1449  (ISO)  » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:54 am

In post 1440, Thespio wrote:Everyone else had me middle of the road, as scum does a claim benifit me if it guarantees I’m on the chopping block? You recognize I wasn’t under a ton of pressure, and yes I was kind of shocked my Pr had been called, so I claimed, I didn’t immediately claim. Also It was all I had when I claimed seeing as I got a NR N1.


Don't you think you would be A LOT more valuable if you had a result from N2 AND N3? Your claim makes zero sense and you should feel bad for fakeclaiming this early.

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