Newbie 1913 - game over!!

the worst
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Post Post #425  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:14 pm

vote count 2.01

L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (0) :
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, L84Dnr
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX, Roo, SaintAngelDFE, volxen, brassherald

with 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-02-08 11:30:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack
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Post Post #426  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:41 pm

In post 420, Roo wrote:I'm going to have to go back and read Hearth's ISO tomorrow because that was a bit surprising of a lynch.

I'm curious if Blurry has any thoughts on the end of Day 1 or where we are now since he didn't cast a vote and didn't post that last day


I didn't cast a vote because I felt like YellowSnow was not scum. I played with someone like the last game I played, and in the back of my mind I was thinking he was not scum, just a jerk, but I hammered him anyway. He ended up being a vanilla townie and it has caused me to re-evaluate how I read players like that. Just because someone is hostile does not make them scum. I unfortunately was stuck at work that night so I wasn't able to get back in time but I think at that point that wagon was not going to get derailed anyways unless it was a hasty switch to Saint, which in my books would have been the better choice, but we can sort that out today. Not going to quite put him at L-1 yet, as his play does in a lot of ways seem new player, but it can be hard to tell sometimes.

I want to go back and read L84 and Roo.

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Post Post #427  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:58 pm

In post 418, L84Dnr wrote:I'd also like to hear from Saint.

VOTE: Saint

Saint, your ISO looks awfully lurky. Is there a good reason for that?


My lurking, especially in the last week, has been mostly work related. I plan on being a lot better about posting from here on out, my apologies.

I'll be posting a detailed read list in the next couple of hours after I have a chance to read back through day one a bit, I'd like to make sure I've got everything right before I make a mistake like I did last time. I'm thinking I'll try and get as accurate read I can on the SE's and the IC because like L8 said, it's kind of weird that they survived when I think scum would have wanted to get rid of someone more capable of calling them out.

Was there anybody that Hearth was particularly suspecting? I didn't notice anything specifically aimed at anyone until the wagon on Yellow, but I'll be rereading again just in case, not saying they're scum it's just something I want to look back on.

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Post Post #428  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:10 pm

Ugg. These short wagons are a pain. I really prefer plurality voting over hammered votes.

UNVOTE:

I'm concerned by the NK. If one of the experienced players is scum then leaving the other two alive for cover makes sense.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, your ISO is thin with just 27 posts in 11 days. You placed all of a single vote during Day 1 and that was an RVS vote that you parked on YellowSnow in post 17 and left there. That'd be lurky for a n00b and as an SE I'm sure you know how to scum hunt better than that. Can you explain this behaviour?

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Post Post #429  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:21 pm

In post 427, SaintAngelDFE wrote:Was there anybody that Hearth was particularly suspecting? I didn't notice anything specifically aimed at anyone until the wagon on Yellow, but I'll be rereading again just in case, not saying they're scum it's just something I want to look back on.


There wasn't anybody he really mixed it up with. That sort of behaviour tends to be TvT tunnelling anyway.

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Post Post #430  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:35 pm

In post 428, L84Dnr wrote:Ugg. These short wagons are a pain. I really prefer plurality voting over hammered votes.

UNVOTE:

I'm concerned by the NK. If one of the experienced players is scum then leaving the other two alive for cover makes sense.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, your ISO is thin with just 27 posts in 11 days. You placed all of a single vote during Day 1 and that was an RVS vote that you parked on YellowSnow in post 17 and left there. That'd be lurky for a n00b and as an SE I'm sure you know how to scum hunt better than that. Can you explain this behaviour?


I voted for Yellowsnow during RVS, and then he became my top suspect later on in the day after I cased him, so there was no reason for me to move my vote around at that point. I did come close to voting for Saint at one point, but as I pointed out in some of my posts, he said things that were giving me newb!town vibes, which was not the case with YellowSnow. I had (and still have) suspicions about the DT/BlurryX slot, but Yellowsnow was the person I suspected the most on day one. And while I did not move my vote around, I engaged a lot with people on day one, so why immediately latch onto the fact that I didn't move my vote around? And why directly tie that to scumhunting? I don’t have to move my vote around to keep up with scumhunting.

And I often times will have a smaller number of posts with more content (in some cases "wallposts"), rather than the "typical" way of playing this game, which is to have a lot of shorter posts. I feel I had a decent amount of content for day one, even if my post count wasn't high. I'm not understanding why post count in and of itself is so important to you, but it apparently is, so perhaps you can explain why?

Interesting how you have put your vote on me once again for the same reason that you did on day one: my post count in relation to the fact that I am an SE. In addition to that, you seem to be suggesting that the only possible explanation for Hearth’s nightkill is that SE(s) and/or IC have to be scum because scum wants to hide behind other experienced players. Why is that the only possible explanation? As I see it Hearth’s nightkill was either 1) to generate WIFOM/confusion or 2) because scum found something in Hearth’s ISO that indicated to them that he was the doctor, or at least that he was likely to be a town power role. Either way, I don’t see that kind of a nightkill as being beyond the scumrange of every non-SE/IC player here.

Other than expressing concerns that YellowSnow "might just be bad town", you didn't disagree with or question the case I presented against YellowSnow on day one; in fact you even extended my case by quoting posts from his Newbie 1906 game to show how he was being different in this game (refusing to answer questions) compared to Newbie 1906 (talking about the importance of being transparent as town). You fully supported my case and committed to pushing Yellowsnow. So if there was scum on YellowSnow's wagon -- and it is very likely that there was at least one scum on his wagon -- why am I the most likely person to be that on-wagon scum? Do you have reasons for scumreading me that go beyond 1) me not moving my vote around on day one and 2) my post count on day one?
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)

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Post Post #431  (ISO)  » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:51 pm

In post 421, brassherald wrote:So, my NKA says, killing on the wagon means that scum was likely off the wagon yesterday... Unless somehow Hearthstone let slip that he was Dr. I don't see any crumbing in his ISO now that I look for it, but my rule of thumb right now is that I should likely reevaluate my reads unless someone finds something.

If anyone sees anything that hints at hearth being Doctor in his ISO let me know.


Assuming Hearth was nightkilled to generate WIFOM rather than because scum deduced that he was the doctor, why do you think that suggests that both scum were off wagon? When a townie is mislynched, there is usually scum on the wagon. Especially on day one when five votes are required to pull off a lynch.
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)

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Post Post #432  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:21 pm

In post 421, brassherald wrote:So, my NKA says, killing on the wagon means that scum was likely off the wagon yesterday... Unless somehow Hearthstone let slip that he was Dr. I don't see any crumbing in his ISO now that I look for it, but my rule of thumb right now is that I should likely reevaluate my reads unless someone finds something.

If anyone sees anything that hints at hearth being Doctor in his ISO let me know.


Actually @Brass, the more I think about it you are probably half-right -- the most likely combination here is that one scum was on Yellowsnow's wagon, and one scum was off wagon. I didn't find any compelling evidence of breadcrumbs in Hearth's ISO, and no one else has thus far either. So if both scum were on Hearth's wagon, they would have to be fairly bold/confident to nightkill someone else who was also on the wagon, because if we were to lynch from Yellowsnow's wagon today (and scum has to consider the possibility that we would do this), then that alone would give us a 50% chance of hitting scum, as it would mean that two out of {Volxen, L84Dnr, brassherald, Roo} would contain the entire scumteam. Because even if we mislynched in this scenario on day 2, assuming on night 2 scum didn't nightkill someone from Yellowsnow's wagon again, then that would mean on day 3 that 2/3 of the living players from Yellowsnow's wagon would contain the entire scumteam -- so we would have about a 67% chance of hitting scum on day 3 just by lynching from Yellowsnow's wagon again. I don't think scum would want to make such a risky play like that.

Thoughts on why scum didn't nightkill either you or xwing? I was expecting one of you two to be the nightkill. You're the IC, and xwing was by far the most universally townread player on day one. It does seem like Hearth was a suboptimal nightkill choice who just happened to be the doctor, as he was neither the most experienced nor the most townread player. Even with one scum being off Yellowsnow's wagon (or the very rare scenario where both scum were off Yellowsnow's wagon), I still don't understand why scum would pass over both you and xwing to nightkill Hearth. I would normally include myself in that list of "Why are you still alive?" as well, but I was not a universal townread like xwing, Hearth was overall probably more townread than I was (I took a bit of heat on day one), and I'm not the IC.
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)

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Post Post #433  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:14 pm

In post 430, volxen wrote:
In post 428, L84Dnr wrote:Ugg. These short wagons are a pain. I really prefer plurality voting over hammered votes.

UNVOTE:

I'm concerned by the NK. If one of the experienced players is scum then leaving the other two alive for cover makes sense.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, your ISO is thin with just 27 posts in 11 days. You placed all of a single vote during Day 1 and that was an RVS vote that you parked on YellowSnow in post 17 and left there. That'd be lurky for a n00b and as an SE I'm sure you know how to scum hunt better than that. Can you explain this behaviour?


I voted for Yellowsnow during RVS, and then he became my top suspect later on in the day after I cased him, so there was no reason for me to move my vote around at that point. I did come close to voting for Saint at one point, but as I pointed out in some of my posts, he said things that were giving me newb!town vibes, which was not the case with YellowSnow. I had (and still have) suspicions about the DT/BlurryX slot, but Yellowsnow was the person I suspected the most on day one. And while I did not move my vote around, I engaged a lot with people on day one, so why immediately latch onto the fact that I didn't move my vote around? And why directly tie that to scumhunting? I don’t have to move my vote around to keep up with scumhunting.


Voting people puts pressure on them and helps with VCA. Sure, mark YellowSnow as lynchable for later, but I'd be moving my vote around in the meanwhile to keep the scum hopping. I can come back to him toward the end of day.

And I often times will have a smaller number of posts with more content (in some cases "wallposts"), rather than the "typical" way of playing this game, which is to have a lot of shorter posts. I feel I had a decent amount of content for day one, even if my post count wasn't high. I'm not understanding why post count in and of itself is so important to you, but it apparently is, so perhaps you can explain why?


It's one factor. Combined with your stationary vote it looks suspicious. Granted, your posts weren't fluff or I'd be more suspicious.

Interesting how you have put your vote on me once again for the same reason that you did on day one: my post count in relation to the fact that I am an SE.


It makes it stand out more. N00bs can be lurky for a variety of reasons like not understanding what they're doing or being shy. You don't suffer from those.

In addition to that, you seem to be suggesting that the only possible explanation for Hearth’s nightkill is that SE(s) and/or IC have to be scum because scum wants to hide behind other experienced players. Why is that the only possible explanation?


I don't believe that I ever said that, which makes this a curious misrep.

As I see it Hearth’s nightkill was either 1) to generate WIFOM/confusion or 2) because scum found something in Hearth’s ISO that indicated to them that he was the doctor, or at least that he was likely to be a town power role.


Or any of a number of other reasons that we haven't even considered. Only the scum know.

Other than expressing concerns that YellowSnow "might just be bad town", you didn't disagree with or question the case I presented against YellowSnow on day one; in fact you even extended my case by quoting posts from his Newbie 1906 game to show how he was being different in this game (refusing to answer questions) compared to Newbie 1906 (talking about the importance of being transparent as town). You fully supported my case and committed to pushing Yellowsnow.


All true. I have no quibble with your reasoning.

So if there was scum on YellowSnow's wagon -- and it is very likely that there was at least one scum on his wagon


I'm not certain that's true. I'll grant you that it's unlikely that they weren't both on it. But scum like letting town lynch town and not taking the blame for the mislynch, so they could have both been off of it. Xwing looks pretty town, which would leave Saint and Blurry.

why am I the most likely person to be that on-wagon scum?


I don't believe that I ever said you were.

Do you have reasons for scumreading me that go beyond 1) me not moving my vote around on day one and 2) my post count on day one?


Not at the moment.

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Post Post #434  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:19 pm

In post 352, BlurryX wrote:My strongest scum read right now is Saint. Bandwagons, gets called out for it and pivots to someone else immediately. Either noobtown or scum. I think the more consistent town-play would be to stick to your guns and not immediately cave under pressure.


In post 426, BlurryX wrote:
In post 420, Roo wrote:I'm going to have to go back and read Hearth's ISO tomorrow because that was a bit surprising of a lynch.

I'm curious if Blurry has any thoughts on the end of Day 1 or where we are now since he didn't cast a vote and didn't post that last day


I didn't cast a vote because I felt like YellowSnow was not scum. I played with someone like the last game I played, and in the back of my mind I was thinking he was not scum, just a jerk, but I hammered him anyway. He ended up being a vanilla townie and it has caused me to re-evaluate how I read players like that. Just because someone is hostile does not make them scum. I unfortunately was stuck at work that night so I wasn't able to get back in time but I think at that point that wagon was not going to get derailed anyways unless it was a hasty switch to Saint, which in my books would have been the better choice, but we can sort that out today. Not going to quite put him at L-1 yet, as his play does in a lot of ways seem new player, but it can be hard to tell sometimes.

I want to go back and read L84 and Roo.


This doesn't make any sense -- you said you didn't cast a vote on day one because you felt that Yellowsnow was not scum, yet you were strongly scumreading Saint and didn't vote for him or try to push him to lynch either. In fact, you removed your predecessor's vote on Brass and then never voted yourself. You replaced into the game days before the deadline, and at the time you replaced in Yellowsnow was at 4 votes (L-1) and Saint was only at two votes. As it got closer to the deadline, Yellowsnow voted for Saint and brought him up to three votes:

In post 330, the worst wrote:
BlurryX replaces DoubtingThomas.

No change to deadline as we're just under 48hrs anyway.


In post 331, the worst wrote:
vote count 1.16

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (1) : YellowSnow
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, Roo
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (1) : BlurryX

not voting:

with 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-01-30 14:00:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- xwing is also coincidentally v/la this Monday
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack


In post 349, BlurryX wrote:UNVOTE:

To give me a chance to catch up on what is going on.

I apologize for this being a bit disjointed, but its almost impossible to really come to grips with 14 pages of content in the 24 hours we have to reach a decision, so I'm going to just list things as they come to me.

First person to get up to any notable number of votes was brassherald. Only interesting vote was the third one, the "Lets wagon the IC vote". Not really an indicator of anything.

As for brassherald:

Most of his posts have been IC related, which in my books don't tip the needle in either direction so I will choose to ignore them. Also a lot of posts about the game in general, what roles he prefers. Nothing noteworthy there.

First real post of any kind of leaning was his response to hearthstone about why he had not been particularly active up until that point. Stuck to his guns about Roo, which I like, and he picked up the amoutn of contribution as the day went on so his response is consistent with how he behaved.

Next post that was specifically game-related was him taking Roo away from L-1 which leans town to me. Wanting to allow for the whole day for discussion to get as much information as possible seems like a towny thing to do. More discussion can only benefit town because it gives us more to go off of when trying to figure out who is scum/town.

His later reads seem to be well reasoned for the most part. I will say, I'm not sure how relevant analyzing prior activity is with regards to YellowSnow considering real life obligations have a large role in how much time you can devote to the game, and consequently how you play. Also, there is likely not enough game history to really come up with anythign conclusive. I haven't looked through his prior games, but, has there been a game where he played as scum, and if so, did he play significantly different in that game compared to others? Just because he is playing different this game does not necessarily mean its because he has a different role.

While the defeatist "I don't defend myself against awful wagons" isn't the best of responses, I honestly would chalk this up to not dealing well with pressure instead of scumminess.

My gut feeling so far is this push against YellowSnow has more to do with his playstyle than any kind of actual scumread against him. So far not convinced that he is the best lynch target for today, although I realize time is running out and lynch is better than no-lynch.


In post 360, the worst wrote:
vote count 1.17

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (1) : YellowSnow
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, Roo
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX

with 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-01-30 14:00:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack


In post 400, the worst wrote:
vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX

with 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-01-30 14:00:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- prodding SaintAngelDFE
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack


In post 411, the worst wrote:
vote count 1.19

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (==[]) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald, Roo
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX

with 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-01-30 14:00:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack



Those are all of the vote counts between the time you replaced into DT's slot and the end of day one. You had plenty of opportunities to safely vote for Saint (he was never at more than three votes after you replaced in), but instead you sat on the sidelines, removed your predecessor's vote on Brass and then never once voted yourself, talked about how you thought Saint was a much better lynch than Yellowsnow, but then didn't actually do anything (like vote) to try to switch the momentum towards a Saint lynch rather than a Yellowsnow lynch. I don't see a town motivation at all in sitting on the sidelines like this, and that's exactly what you did for all of day one. Sure, there is no guarantee you would have been able to convince everyone to lynch Saint. But you see your supposed "townread" Yellowsnow is all but guaranteed to be lynched, and you do absolutely nothing to try and stop it and help push a counter-wagon against your top "scumread" Saint. I think you are scum, as your behavior here is scummy just like your predecessor DT was scummy (see: post ). I believe you wanted Yellowsnow to be mislynched but didn't want to be on his mislynch wagon, because your scumbuddy either was already on his wagon or was going to be placing the hammer vote.

VOTE: BlurryX
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)

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Post Post #435  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:35 pm

Here's the final vote count for Day 1. I've coloured in known townies in green for reference.

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (==[]) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald, Roo
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


If anything, Volxen has understated the danger of having both scum on that wagon. Since at least two of the living players on that wagon must be town they can eliminate themselves from the list of possibilities. That would leave two town players with a 2 in 3 chance of hitting a scum with nothing better than a shot in the dark.

On the other hand, there are a couple of safe wagons that won't lead to a lynch where scum could lodge a vote but not take any blame for the mislynch.

the worst
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Post Post #436  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:36 pm

vote count 2.02

L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : volxen
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (1) : xwing
volxen (1) : L84Dnr
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX, Roo, SaintAngelDFE, brassherald

with 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-02-08 11:30:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- prodding brassherald
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack
Go get to know xRECKONERx!
Once you have 100 posts, click here to go to the page to join the speakeasy group.
marathon weekend open group | discord server | join these, it'll be fun, i promise

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Post Post #437  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:11 pm

I was going to give Blurry a bit of time to post before getting into this, but since Volxen has started down this road:

Look at vote count 1.18 from the POV for Blurrytown:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


OK, perhaps you'd rather not hammer YelowSnow just yet, but you could take Saint, your prime scum read, to L-1 and create a competing wagon. Several of us could have been persuaded to lynch Saint instead.

Now look at it from the PoV of Blurryscum:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


What's a poor scum to do? Hammer a townie or put Saint at L-1? Try and cobble together a reason for a new wagon?

And since I'm reading Saint as moderately scummy right now, let's make a further assumption:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


So we have a distancing vote by Saint on Blurry/DT, and poor Blurry not wanting to put his partner at L-1 because he won't even get any town cred for the bus. We do have some distancing by Blurry on Saint by way of being his top scum read but no vote.

Granted, there are a fair number of assumptions going into that, but Saint and Blurry are in my scum pile right now so this makes a fair bit of sense of their actions. Unless there are further developments, which there's plenty of time for, I'm content to lynch Saint at the end of day. If he flips red than Blurry's lack of Day 1 vote becomes significantly more meaningful.

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Post Post #438  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:14 pm

In post 435, L84Dnr wrote:Here's the final vote count for Day 1. I've coloured in known townies in green for reference.

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (==[]) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald, Roo
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


If anything, Volxen has understated the danger of having both scum on that wagon. Since at least two of the living players on that wagon must be town they can eliminate themselves from the list of possibilities. That would leave two town players with a 2 in 3 chance of hitting a scum with nothing better than a shot in the dark.

On the other hand, there are a couple of safe wagons that won't lead to a lynch where scum could lodge a vote but not take any blame for the mislynch.


Keep in mind that "not voting" itself should be treated as a wagon for VCA purposes (see: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mastina%27s_VCA_Guide). And the whole 50% thing that I brought up was from the perspective of a townie off the wagon (or a spectator) -- that from their perspective, if both scum were on Yellowsnow's wagon there would be a 50% chance of hitting scum just by lynching off of Yellowsnow's wagon. Of course, as you pointed out, for the townies that were on Yellowsnow's wagon, that would go up to 67% (2/3). For example, I know I am town, so if both scum were on Yellowsnow's wagon, then I know the scumteam is two out of {L84Dnr, brassherald, Roo}. Of course, I don't believe that given my case against and vote for BlurryX.

But yes, the overall point is that Hearth's nightkill suggests that it is unlikely that both scum were on Hearth's wagon. The only way I see the combination of 1) both scum being on Hearth's wagon and 2) Hearth being nightkilled is if the scumteam found a doctor crumb from Hearth AFTER Yellowsnow was already lynched (i.e., during the night phase). If they had found a doctor crumb during day one, and knew before Yellowsnow was lynched that Hearth would be the nightkill, I think one of them would have avoided Yellowsnow's wagon if at all possible, for the reasons that both you and I have stated. In any case, I spent a considerable amount of time looking at each and every one of Hearth's posts last night, and I didn't find anything in his entire ISO that remotely came across as "oh, he's obviously the doctor". Other people have stated that they were going to look through Hearth's ISO, and no one has pointed out any sort of doctor crumb yet. So unless scum has managed to find something that no townie has been able to find, I don't think a doctor crumb is the explanation for Hearth's nightkill.
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)

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Post Post #439  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:47 pm

In post 437, L84Dnr wrote:I was going to give Blurry a bit of time to post before getting into this, but since Volxen has started down this road:

Look at vote count 1.18 from the POV for Blurrytown:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


OK, perhaps you'd rather not hammer YelowSnow just yet, but you could take Saint, your prime scum read, to L-1 and create a competing wagon. Several of us could have been persuaded to lynch Saint instead.

Now look at it from the PoV of Blurryscum:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


What's a poor scum to do? Hammer a townie or put Saint at L-1? Try and cobble together a reason for a new wagon?

And since I'm reading Saint as moderately scummy right now, let's make a further assumption:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (4) : volxen, hearthstone1235, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :
BlurryX (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (3) : xwing, Roo, YellowSnow
volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting: BlurryX


So we have a distancing vote by Saint on Blurry/DT, and poor Blurry not wanting to put his partner at L-1 because he won't even get any town cred for the bus. We do have some distancing by Blurry on Saint by way of being his top scum read but no vote.

Granted, there are a fair number of assumptions going into that, but Saint and Blurry are in my scum pile right now so this makes a fair bit of sense of their actions. Unless there are further developments, which there's plenty of time for, I'm content to lynch Saint at the end of day. If he flips red than Blurry's lack of Day 1 vote becomes significantly more meaningful.


Those are fair points, in that both BlurryX and Saint managed to avoid being on any major wagon. The argument could be made that Saint was on a vanity wagon (i.e., a wagon that clearly isn't going anywhere) by keeping his vote on BlurryX/DT. In Saint's defense though, Yellowsnow got up to L-1 after Brass voted for him, so the soonest Saint could have voted for Yellowsnow was at the end of the deadline, but Roo had already given intent to hammer Yellow in any case. And the only two wagons were Yellowsnow's wagon and Saint's own wagon, so town!Saint most likely would have just ended up being the lone voter on a wagon regardless of who he voted for.

Contrast that with BlurryX, who was scumreading one of the people being wagoned (Saint) and townreading the other (Yellowsnow), and yet didn't vote at all. Whereas Saint arguably has a valid reason for not being on a major wagon with multiple voters (because there was simply no wagon he could join), BlurryX does not have a valid reason for not voting for his scumread (Saint).

So BluryX has a lot of scum equity, especially when factoring in DT's content as well. But I don't think it's all that likely that BlurryX and Saint are scum together. First, it's just very rare for a townie to get mislynched with no scum being on the wagon. Especially on day one where five votes are needed to pull off a lynch -- that would imply that at least 5/6 (~83.33%) of Yellowsnow's fellow townies all agreed that he was scum. Second, there was this dynamic on day one where multiple people seemed to be OK with lynching either Yellowsnow or Saint if it came down to it, which makes me think both could be town here -- interchangeable mislynches from scum's POV. Third, Saint did give off newb!town vibes on day one that I don't think he could easily fake on his own without some serious coaching/help from a more experienced scumbuddy.
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)

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Post Post #440  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:03 pm

In post 439, volxen wrote:In Saint's defense though, Yellowsnow got up to L-1 after Brass voted for him, so the soonest Saint could have voted for Yellowsnow was at the end of the deadline, but Roo had already given intent to hammer Yellow in any case.


Saint could have easily hopped onto the YellowSnow wagon before he reached L-1 but after he started getting anti-town. That's what I did.

Contrast that with BlurryX, who was scumreading one of the people being wagoned (Saint) and townreading the other (Yellowsnow), and yet didn't vote at all. Whereas Saint arguably has a valid reason for not being on a major wagon with multiple voters (because there was simply no wagon he could join), BlurryX does not have a valid reason for not voting for his scumread (Saint).


Which will make for some very tough explaining for Blurry if Saint flips red.

So BluryX has a lot of scum equity, especially when factoring in DT's content as well.


I'd prefer to judge Blurry for his own actions. Hard to make him answer for another player's misdeeds. DT dropped out, so his lack of contribution may simply indicate lack of interest.

But I don't think it's all that likely that BlurryX and Saint are scum together.


Quite possibly not. It just makes sense of my best reads and of their voting behaviour. One of many possible scenarios though.

First, it's just very rare for a townie to get mislynched with no scum being on the wagon. Especially on day one where five votes are needed to pull off a lynch -- that would imply that at least 5/6 (~83.33%) of Yellowsnow's fellow townies all agreed that he was scum.


I've seen it under similar circumstances. A n00b townie does something foolishly anti-town toward end of day and town piles on so fast that scum is left without any good positions on the wagon. They're left with a suspicious "Me too!" vote.

Also, look at YellowSnow's final wagon. Hearth is NKed town and you know what your alignment is. Do the remaining 3 players give you any scum vibes?

Second, there was this dynamic on day one where multiple people seemed to be OK with lynching either Yellowsnow or Saint if it came down to it, which makes me think both could be town here -- interchangeable mislynches from scum's POV.


We should revisit those if Saint flips green.

Third, Saint did give off newb!town vibes on day one that I don't think he could easily fake on his own without some serious coaching/help from a more experienced scumbuddy.


Anything in particular?

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Post Post #441  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:04 pm

Is it just me or is it quiet in here? 7 players, 3 days, and just 4 votes.

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Post Post #442  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:10 pm

Day 1 VCA

Known alignments have been coloured in. Apologies in advance for any errors.

Spoiler: "Chronologically"
Wagon position is indicated in brackets.

Post 12 Brass votes Roo (1)
Post 13 Yellow votes Xwing (1)
Post 14 Roo votes Blank/L8 (1)
Post 15 Hearth votes DT/Blurry (1)
Post 17 Volxen votes Yellow (1)
Post 20 DT votes Brass (1)
Post 23 Roo votes Brass (2)
Post 24 Yellow votes Volxen (1)
Post 25 Hearth unvotes
Post 26 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 29 Xwing votes Brass (3)
Post 30 Saint votes Hearth (1)
Post 37 Saint votes Blank/L8 (1) <--- mixed up vote tags so may not have been recorded
Post 39 Hearth unvotes
Post 40 Hearth votes Xwing (1)
Post 92 L8 votes Roo (2)
Post 106 Saint votes Roo (3)
Post 107 Xwing votes Saint (1)
Post 108 Yellow votes Roo (4) <--- L-1
Post 121 Roo votes Saint (2)
Post 127 Brass unvotes
Post 129 L8 unvotes
Post 131 L8 votes Saint (3)
Post 141 Saint votes Volxen (1)
Post 146 Hearth unvotes
Post 163 Saint votes DT/Blurry (1)
Post 169 L8 unvotes
Post 170 L8 votes Volxen (1)
Post 176 Brass votes Saint (3)
Post 182 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 207 DT votes Brass (1) <--- again, he was already voting Brass
Post 257 Hearth unvotes
Post 265 Hearth votes Yellow (2)
Post 273 L8 votes Yellow (3)
Post 293 Brass votes Yellow (4) <--- L-1
Post 333 Yellow votes L8
Post 349 Blurry unvotes
Post 383 Yellow votes Saint (3)
Post 410 Roo votes Yellow (5) <--- Hammer!


Spoiler: "By Player"
Wagon position is indicated in brackets.

Post 13 Yellow votes Xwing (1)
Post 24 Yellow votes Volxen (1)
Post 108 Yellow votes Roo (4) <--- L-1
Post 333 Yellow votes L8
Post 383 Yellow votes Saint (3)

Post 15 Hearth votes DT/Blurry (1)
Post 25 Hearth unvotes
Post 26 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 39 Hearth unvotes
Post 40 Hearth votes Xwing (1)
Post 146 Hearth unvotes
Post 182 Hearth votes Volxen (2)
Post 257 Hearth unvotes
Post 265 Hearth votes Yellow (2)

Post 12 Brass votes Roo (1)
Post 127 Brass unvotes
Post 176 Brass votes Saint (3)
Post 293 Brass votes Yellow (4) <--- L-1

Post 20 DT votes Brass (1)
Post 207 DT votes Brass (1) <--- again, he was already voting Brass
Post 349 Blurry unvotes

Post 92 L8 votes Roo (2)
Post 129 L8 unvotes
Post 131 L8 votes Saint (3)
Post 169 L8 unvotes
Post 170 L8 votes Volxen (1)
Post 273 L8 votes Yellow (3)

Post 14 Roo votes Blank/L8 (1)
Post 23 Roo votes Brass (2)
Post 121 Roo votes Saint (2)
Post 410 Roo votes Yellow (5) <--- Hammer!

Post 30 Saint votes Hearth (1)
Post 37 Saint votes Blank/L8 (1) <--- mixed up vote tags so may not have been recorded
Post 106 Saint votes Roo (3)
Post 141 Saint votes Volxen (1)
Post 163 Saint votes DT/Blurry (1)

Post 17 Volxen votes Yellow (1)

Post 29 Xwing votes Brass (3)
Post 107 Xwing votes Saint (1)


Spoiler: "By Wagon"
Some votes are listed more than once because I've listed it as a separate wagon when one player drops off and another joins.

Xwing: (1) Yellow
Blank/L8: (1) Roo
DT: (1) Hearth
Volxen: (2) Yellow, Hearth
Brass: (3) DT, Roo, Xwing
Hearth: (1) Saint
Blank/L8: (1) Saint
Xwing: (1) Hearth
Roo: (4) Brass, L8, Saint, Yellow
Saint: (3) Xwing, Roo, L8
Volxen: (1) Saint
DT: (1) Saint
Volxen: (2) L8, Hearth
Brass: (1) DT
Saint: (3) Xwing, Roo, Brass
L8: (1) Yellow
Saint: (3) Xwing, Roo, Yellow
Yellow: (5) Volxen, Hearth, L8, Brass, Roo

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Post Post #443  (ISO)  » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:21 pm

A few notes to take away from that:

- Our IC and SE's aren't big on voting, with Brass (3 votes), Xwing (2 votes) and Volxen (1 vote). Is this standard play so that the inexperienced players take the initiative?
- Aside from his RVS vote, both of Brass' votes were in very safe spots.
- DT/Blurry's vote record is very slim, managing to vote Brass twice before Blurry took over and unvoted.
- Hearth voted a lot. Perhaps this is what got him NKed. We'll have to ask scum when the game ends.

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Post Post #444  (ISO)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:32 am

In post 443, L84Dnr wrote:A few notes to take away from that:

- Our IC and SE's aren't big on voting, with Brass (3 votes), Xwing (2 votes) and Volxen (1 vote). Is this standard play so that the inexperienced players take the initiative?
- Aside from his RVS vote, both of Brass' votes were in very safe spots.
- DT/Blurry's vote record is very slim, managing to vote Brass twice before Blurry took over and unvoted.
- Hearth voted a lot. Perhaps this is what got him NKed. We'll have to ask scum when the game ends.


"Standard play" for me is to vote for someone during RVS, and then move my vote when I have a serious scumread on someone. In this case, it just worked out that the person I had my RVS vote on (Yellowsnow) ended up being my top scumread at the end of day one, so I didn't move my vote onto someone else.

I guess this is just a playstyle thing for you, but in my experience, especially post RVS, most people don't vote for someone just because they want to question them or whatever. Usually after RVS has ended, when people place a vote for someone it's because they are scumreading that person. Especially if it's day two and beyond. This is why I asked you earlier, "Why do you think I am the most likely scum on Yellow's wagon", because you immediately voted for me after Saint posted and you unvoted him. I assumed your vote for me was you saying, "You're my top scumread Volxen", because that is usually what a vote means at this stage of the game.

In any case, I'm glad you've been doing VCA/analysis, because frankly I've been fairly skeptical of your slot. However, this is your first game here, and I have my doubts that you would be putting in this degree of effort as scum into analyzing not only vote counts, but how many votes each player placed during day one, who they voted for, and when they voted. Sure this kind of effort could be put in by scum, but I do think this kind of highly-focused analysis is more likely to come from town!you rather than scum!you. Which means I can focus my efforts on casing Brass and Roo, because I am not convinced that both of them are town. I do believe that there was scum on Yellowsnow's wagon, and that one of Brass or Roo is scum with BlurryX.

The thing that really bothers me about the notion of both Brass and xwing being town is, why are they BOTH still alive today? One is the fairly townread IC player, the other is the universally regarded obvtown player. I do agree that xwing is towny, but I am not convinced that Brass is town. A fair amount of his content on day one was IC related posts, and as he said himself, he "played things close to the chest". Whereas you and I really cased Yellowsnow, he just basically agreed with my Yellowsnow case and hopped onto the end of the wagon as the L-1 voter. Roo didn't do anything that stood out to me as particularly towny either, and I kind of felt like he may have been hard pocketing me when he immediately agreed with me when I first accused Saint of making up his reads when he botched up that post where he voted for me instead of DT (after claiming that DT was his top scumread and that he was townreading me). This is why I think Brass/BlurryX or Roo/BlurryX are both plausible scumteams -- but I do need to case both Brass and Roo individually.
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

"i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)

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Post Post #445  (ISO)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:18 am

Prodding Roo & BlurryX.

It's sleep time in duck land, so activity will be reviewed in the morning.
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Post Post #446  (ISO)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:12 am

In post 439, volxen wrote:Contrast that with BlurryX, who was scumreading one of the people being wagoned (Saint) and townreading the other (Yellowsnow), and yet didn't vote at all. Whereas Saint arguably has a valid reason for not being on a major wagon with multiple voters (because there was simply no wagon he could join), BlurryX does not have a valid reason for not voting for his scumread (Saint).


In post 426, BlurryX wrote:
I didn't cast a vote because I felt like YellowSnow was not scum. I played with someone like the last game I played, and in the back of my mind I was thinking he was not scum, just a jerk, but I hammered him anyway. He ended up being a vanilla townie and it has caused me to re-evaluate how I read players like that. Just because someone is hostile does not make them scum. I unfortunately was stuck at work that night so I wasn't able to get back in time but I think at that point that wagon was not going to get derailed anyways unless it was a hasty switch to Saint, which in my books would have been the better choice, but we can sort that out today. Not going to quite put him at L-1 yet, as his play does in a lot of ways seem new player, but it can be hard to tell sometimes.

I want to go back and read L84 and Roo.


Blurry's reading of the Saint situation feels scummy. Saying that Saint would have been the better choice but still calling it "a hasty switch" and ending with the qualifier about new players just doesn't sit right with me.

Blurry easily could've put a vote on Saint who he called his biggest scumread on Day 1, I agree with Volxen that he has no valid reason not to have voted that way. Blurry says we can sort that out today, but it maybe could've been sorted out more thoroughly already had Blurry voted for Saint on Day 1.

VOTE: BlurryX

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Post Post #447  (ISO)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 pm

In post 444, volxen wrote:"Standard play" for me is to vote for someone during RVS, and then move my vote when I have a serious scumread on someone. In this case, it just worked out that the person I had my RVS vote on (Yellowsnow) ended up being my top scumread at the end of day one, so I didn't move my vote onto someone else.

I guess this is just a playstyle thing for you, but in my experience, especially post RVS, most people don't vote for someone just because they want to question them or whatever. Usually after RVS has ended, when people place a vote for someone it's because they are scumreading that person. Especially if it's day two and beyond. This is why I asked you earlier, "Why do you think I am the most likely scum on Yellow's wagon", because you immediately voted for me after Saint posted and you unvoted him. I assumed your vote for me was you saying, "You're my top scumread Volxen", because that is usually what a vote means at this stage of the game.


Different play styles then. I prefer to keep my vote moving, partly because it encourages the people voted to talk and partly because it's informative to see who votes with me.

I also work the opposite direction from you. I tend to vote my lower scum reads earlier to try and clear them and narrow the scum pool.

UNVOTE:

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Post Post #448  (ISO)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:13 pm

In post 446, Roo wrote:Blurry's reading of the Saint situation feels scummy. Saying that Saint would have been the better choice but still calling it "a hasty switch" and ending with the qualifier about new players just doesn't sit right with me.

Blurry easily could've put a vote on Saint who he called his biggest scumread on Day 1, I agree with Volxen that he has no valid reason not to have voted that way. Blurry says we can sort that out today, but it maybe could've been sorted out more thoroughly already had Blurry voted for Saint on Day 1.

VOTE: BlurryX


I could be read as typical scum hesitancy to vote, especially if Saint is his partner.

Blurry's been reluctant to say much. Let's put some real pressure on.

VOTE: Blurry

Blurry is now at L-1, so nobody else vote him.

Blurry, would you care to explain why you've been so hesitant?

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Post Post #449  (ISO)  » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:17 pm

EBWOP: The first sentence in my post 448 should read, "It could be read as typical scum hesitancy to vote..."

"It", not "I". :facepalm:

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