Newbie 1916: Epic Music [Game Over!]

[Skellen]

This cannot be SvS because of jailkeepers. Of course, any jail keeper should claim immediately.

Whichever one is gambiting, the existence of the gambit suggests we are likely in column A with a role blocker, so no mass claim makes sense.

Yes, the SvS is basically confirmed if we actually have a jailkeeper. If it is SvS and we are in a Cop setup then we would have a "third" Cop. I think the only possible setups where SvS with Cop claims could work for scum are in row 3 Neapolitan/doctor and tracker/doctor. But does a SvS fake claim duel at Day 2 make any sense? Considering even although scum knows which column we are in it is also quite a gamble for Day 2. It can still be busted easily at Day 3 or even already in the second night.

Another point that speaks for good's claim is imo the way the claims were done. good just came in like "Hey, I am Cop, urap is scum. Bye". Considering he has as pretty late replacement no town cred I would think scum would try more to make it believable. I stick with it, everything suggests to me that good is the good guy here.

[Skellen]

Woo, I get a place in the list of those we were able to beat Frozen in claiming the page tops!

[teacher]

Ha, I was purposefully not posting for that reason.

I need Clem to tell me why he believes URAP for me to be able to solve this game. @Clem?

[teacher]

Or is this actually a legit tactic used by scum to snipe out power roles at day?

FWIW, I was debating faking a cop with a guilty to start the day. It is a legit tactic to prevent scum counterclaims, and can be used to attract the NK/Roleblocker especially if your result mimics the real investigative's. But good's doubledown when URAP pushes makes it TvS.

[teacher]

if i find a scum, i'll tell you

Another reason to believe good.

[Skellen]

if i find a scum, i'll tell you

Another reason to believe good.

Indeed, another point for good. In contrast the only thing that hints for a PR in urap's ISO is his entrance post where he is glad that he got that slot. But that is a vague statement and can be interpreted in multiple ways (and is imo more directed at you, Clem and flippy).

The only thing that makes me wonder about urap is his mass claim comment that came in before good's claim. I can see the idea behind that with scum!urap and when scum has the roleblocker to get both PR in one swoop but #271 kind of reads like he intended to fake claim anyway. But in that case it would ultimately lead to his lynch at Day 3 at latest if he would be successful. There would always be the danger of being in a setup with a jailkeeper or another Cop (who counterclaims then) which would always mean death for him. So again a gamble. I know scum wants to rolehunt and get the PR's out of the game as fast as possible but as Clem said, a 1 for 1 trade is in the end better for town, especially if the scum gets lynched first.

On the other hand I don't think the mass claim idea would have been that good this early anyway assuming town!urap.

[u r a person 2]

if i find a scum, i'll tell you

Another reason to believe good.

Indeed, another point for good. In contrast the only thing that hints for a PR in urap's ISO is his entrance post where he is glad that he got that slot. But that is a vague statement and can be interpreted in multiple ways (and is imo more directed at you, Clem and flippy).

The only thing that makes me wonder about urap is his mass claim comment that came in before good's claim. I can see the idea behind that with scum!urap and when scum has the roleblocker to get both PR in one swoop but #271 kind of reads like he intended to fake claim anyway. But in that case it would ultimately lead to his lynch at Day 3 at latest if he would be successful. There would always be the danger of being in a setup with a jailkeeper or another Cop (who counterclaims then) which would always mean death for him. So again a gamble. I know scum wants to rolehunt and get the PR's out of the game as fast as possible but as Clem said, a 1 for 1 trade is in the end better for town, especially if the scum gets lynched first.

On the other hand I don't think the mass claim idea would have been that good this early anyway assuming town!urap.

remind me to talk about this in post game from a theory perspective

[u r a person 2]

I don't want to insert myself into the convo atm but if I am to be the lynch today, you had better give me time to put out my solve for the last scum before you hammer

[teacher]

Assuming Town!you, we are still in a good place since there is a 66% chance we have another Pr and scum has to deal with both you and Conf!town flippy.

[u r a person 2]

Assuming Town!you, we are still in a good place since there is a 66% chance we have another Pr and scum has to deal with both you and Conf!town flippy.

I agree it's not a bad spot. It's not as good as if you'd make the right lynch today, but not a bad spot.

You can still give me time after intent to give a final solve. It's my last contribution to the game =)

[teacher]

FWIW I think I’m going to clam up as well, at least until Clem and good can respond to the pending questions, and flippy can weigh in. I’m currently being intrigued by a very kooky thought that I want to muddle through.

[CatStar]

Urap s day open noting roomy’s flip reads seems inconsistent with a flip investigation. If he had that info as town, I think he’d wait to see who pushed Flip based on Roomys reads.

The first is a good point.

I don't get the roomy NK. Makes things more confusing unless thought were getting a PR.

I'm minded to believe good seems a really odd gambit as scum given their posting this far, provided they can explain why changed to URAP.

[CatStar]

@anyone with experience: how much can you usually make of night kills?

[good]

why would i invest roomy? i already scumread him. from where i come from, it is considered the meta for ti's to check their nullreads, since it is more efficent.
outing my check so early is my bad, i was simply excited

[good]

also, urap seems like a solid player from the conversations that happened here, so getting him confirmed/outed as maf sounded like a good thing.

[CatStar]

why would i invest roomy? i already scumread him. from where i come from, it is considered the meta for ti's to check their nullreads, since it is more efficent.
outing my check so early is my bad, i was simply excited

That makes sense. Hadn't thought of it that way.

[Frozen Angel]

Vote Count 2.1

u r a person 2 (1): good [L-3]

good (1): u r a person 2 [L-3]

Not Voting (5): Skellen, Emperor flippyNips, teacher, CatStar, Clemency

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2019-02-24 21:15:00)

Spoiler: Vote Change Tracker/Vote Links Day 2

good -> u r a person 2
Clemency -> u r a person 2,

Unvote

u r a person 2 -> good

Spoiler: Wagon Change Tracker Day 2

u r a person 2 (0+2-1): good,

Clemency

good (0+1): u r a person 2

[CatStar]

VOTE: u r a person 2

[good]

i think the last scum might just be flippy by how he is lurking. night kill also suggests it might be him

tracker/neopolitan be on him
doc on me

[Clemency]

VOTE: u r a person 2
sorry i dont like phoneposting

[teacher]

Intent but I’ll give time.

Clem I really need more from you on why you’re flipping from gut trust. I’m giving both you and urap time before the hammer.

[u r a person 2]

final scum is teacher. I was going to do a write up but there is no way that kill is done by good + a new player

VOTE: urap2

[teacher]

If this is a town selfhammer I’m going to be PISSED. Don’t do that. Especially in the newb.

[u r a person 2]

If this is a town selfhammer I’m going to be PISSED. Don’t do that. Especially in the newb.

lamist

[Frozen Angel]

Vote Count 2.2 - Final

u r a person 2 (4): good, CatStar, Clemency, u r a person 2 [Lynch!]

Not Voting (3): Skellen, Emperor flippyNips, teacher

With 7 players alive it took 4 votes to lynch.

Spoiler: Vote Change Tracker/Vote Links Day 2

good -> u r a person 2
Clemency -> u r a person 2,

Unvote

, u r a person 2
u r a person 2 -> good, u r a person 2
CatStar -> u r a person 2

Spoiler: Wagon Change Tracker Day 2

u r a person 2 (1+3): good,

Clemency

, CatStar, Clemency, u r a person 2
good (1-1):

u r a person 2