Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Klick]

So here’s my hot take based on a skin of D1 and a thorough read of D2/D3:

1) The “these people aren’t wolves because they know the Seer’s meta” assertions are bullshit. They make the assumption that certain people would act in exact ways with their choice of NK. the worst was one out of nine targets for the wolves N1, and we can’t clear people based on their inability to zone in on the Seer. Frankly, delving into pint’s ISO, I’d say the motivation for the kill is obvious regardless of AP’s partner: pint seemed to have a scumlean on AP and was a strong poster.

2) UD is town. Every post he’s made in the past three game days has been extremely genuine and I don’t see him rounding out either of the remaining scumteams. He’s obviously not a wolf (which most people seem to agree with at this point) due to interactions with AP on D2; there’s so little synergy between their posting that I’d be floored if UD’s a wolf. I feel he’s town because his posting doesn’t come across as being paired with anyone, and hasn’t the entire game. He’s thinking entirely about how his slot can benefit town. As scum with RR I feel like his D2/D3 posts would be much less self-centered and focused more on letting RR carry their team to victory, considering the enormous amount of heat on UD at that point. If anything he’s been posting like a wolf would since then, except he’s not because his interactions with AP make zero sense for him to be a wolf.

I intended to say more in this post but I have to go. For now:
VOTE: skitter

I’m leaning towards skitter as the wolf. I don’t think he’s Mafia - RR’s push on skitter the entire time he was alive looked like a genuine push on a suspected wolf as opposed to a bus - but I think he makes a lot of sense as AP’s partner. I’ll go into detail on it later.

[Pine]

VOTE: Skitter

[skitter30]

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

This pretty much screams to me that skitter isn't mafia...

Yeah, the reason I was scumreading her is because her scumread on me didn't feel real and didn't feel like any of the *other* six billion times she scumread me.

--

1) The “these people aren’t wolves because they know the Seer’s meta” assertions are bullshit. They make the assumption that certain people would act in exact ways with their choice of NK. the worst was one out of nine targets for the wolves N1, and we can’t clear people based on their inability to zone in on the Seer. Frankly, delving into pint’s ISO, I’d say the motivation for the kill is obvious regardless of AP’s partner: pint seemed to have a scumlean on AP and was a strong poster.

I'm not really clearing anyone for that reason so much as thinking it makes them less likely to be a wolf

Also at this point that logic only really applies to your slot and me anyways and I'm townreading your slot for other reasons, so yeah

--

I’m leaning towards skitter as the wolf. I don’t think he’s Mafia - RR’s push on skitter the entire time he was alive looked like a genuine push on a suspected wolf as opposed to a bus - but I think he makes a lot of sense as AP’s partner. I’ll go into detail on it later.

a) she

b) that wasn't a genuine push on me from her; I'd link you but I don't remember if her main is public. Honestly, that wasn't a genuine push from her on *anyone,* which is why I was dubious about tw wanting to townread her

c) I'd like to hear more about why you think I'm a wolf given that I think that pairing is literally nonsensical

d) what do you think about pine?

e) I don't really think ud bleeds town like you think he does. I'm pretty sure that pine's scum and the more I think about it the more I think nm probably is too tbh. That's gut though since I can't read him for shit.

--

VOTE: Skitter

Oh good, more of the not-interacting-with-me thing.

[ceejayvinoya]

Well that's shit.

VOTE: Pine

[UglyDuck]

This is the point where I want to remind everyone that the dancing cow will prob auto hammer anything, so both players are "L-1" rn.

[UglyDuck]

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

This pretty much screams to me that skitter isn't mafia...

BS - at that point, Mafia would try to create as much dissonance as possible.

[UglyDuck]

So here’s my hot take based on a skin of D1 and a thorough read of D2/D3:

1) The “these people aren’t wolves because they know the Seer’s meta” assertions are bullshit. They make the assumption that certain people would act in exact ways with their choice of NK. the worst was one out of nine targets for the wolves N1, and we can’t clear people based on their inability to zone in on the Seer. Frankly, delving into pint’s ISO, I’d say the motivation for the kill is obvious regardless of AP’s partner: pint seemed to have a scumlean on AP and was a strong poster.

2) UD is town. Every post he’s made in the past three game days has been extremely genuine and I don’t see him rounding out either of the remaining scumteams. He’s obviously not a wolf (which most people seem to agree with at this point) due to interactions with AP on D2; there’s so little synergy between their posting that I’d be floored if UD’s a wolf. I feel he’s town because his posting doesn’t come across as being paired with anyone, and hasn’t the entire game. He’s thinking entirely about how his slot can benefit town. As scum with RR I feel like his D2/D3 posts would be much less self-centered and focused more on letting RR carry their team to victory, considering the enormous amount of heat on UD at that point. If anything he’s been posting like a wolf would since then, except he’s not because his interactions with AP make zero sense for him to be a wolf.

I intended to say more in this post but I have to go. For now:
VOTE: skitter

I’m leaning towards skitter as the wolf. I don’t think he’s Mafia - RR’s push on skitter the entire time he was alive looked like a genuine push on a suspected wolf as opposed to a bus - but I think he makes a lot of sense as AP’s partner. I’ll go into detail on it later.

You're smart - Would love a read list when you have the time - your predecessor really did not give that much.

[ceejayvinoya]

Lols. Fumuki has more posts and content than most of us...

[ceejayvinoya]

Dissonance? Wtf? RubyRed has been trying to get skitter lynched ever since she joined the game...

one second, reading isos

uglyduck is v

skitter is a wolf

VOTE: skitter

hiya ruby. Why do you think I'm scum?

posts like this

not seeing any of the in-depth thoughts from splatoon mafia (granted, can't say i actually read all of them, but the ones i did were definitely were in-depth)

nah

i originally wanted to do a fake hammer but that vc fucked it up + i think people on the wagon moved their votes anyways

felt good to caps a vote

VOTE: SKITTER

prodge busy, skitter iis stil la wolf btw

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

Skitter may be wolf (very unlikely tho I think) but she's definitely not mafia.

[ceejayvinoya]

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

[Klick]

@skitter:

First of all, I apologize, I’ll adjust my pronoun usage

In general I’m sensing a disconnect between different points you bring up in your posts. There was the one last page that I still feel odd about (you say it’s sarcastic but go on to say there’s a legitimate chance Pine’s not reading the game - it’s hard for me to buy into your thought process), and your comments in your most recent post about Ruby Red don’t quite piece together. You’re confident RR’s read on you wasn’t real, yet it’s essentially the only thing she pushes during this game and you say it’s different than the other times she’s pushed you. You’ve got a sense of confidence about your thoughts here that confuses me.


Anyway, more on why I suspect you’re the wolf. It centers around your interactions with AP on D2. There’s a large shift in your attitude this game from your very first post on D2 - you smack your vote on AP and never take it off. The impression I have is that you decided you were going to be pushing AP during the night phase, regardless of your alignment. From the moment you vote AP to the moment tw claims the guilty on him, you focus in on AP hard, and AP focuses right back on you. You’re making arguments, but generally they’re not persuading anyone, and no one else joins your wagon. You make the comment shortly before tw claims that you don’t think AP is going to be the day’s lynch.

Here is what I suspect: you and AP spoke N1 and decided you were going to bus him. You were going to start the day with a vote on him and leave it there. Either it goes through and you get a large amount of towncred for being the leader of the wagon, or it fails and you can safely jump onto a compromise vote while solidifying anti-synergy between the two of you. You were likely banking on the latter and suspected that would wind up happening, but when tw claimed the guilty, you had to roll with it.

The abrupt shift in your posts and AP’s on D2 is what really sells me on it. That, along with the feeling of general dissonance in your most recent posts, leaves me confident in you being the wolf.


My phone is dying. But people asked for other reads. As I’ve said here I believe skitter is the wolf. UD reads as town to me; ceejay seems to at least not be ww, I’d have to look in more detail to have confidence in him as town... but let’s call it leaning town for now? I have no idea how to read NM whatsoever, and the Pine slot is troubling me; nothing Pine himself has done makes me feel particularly good about him, and I need to look at his predecessors more closely. So I’d say mafia is likely between NM and Pine. The one thing that gives me pause on skitter!ww is that we’ve come to the same conclusions on our reads on our own, which I usually consider a towntell. I’d say that’s less of a factor in multiball and it’s more likely he’s confident in exactly one of Pine or NM being mafia.

[Klick]

...she, in the last sentence. I’m so sorry.

[Pine]

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

Hmmm

That's actually a pretty solid point.

UNVOTE:

[Not_Mafia]

Maybe it's ceejay

[skitter30]

In general I’m sensing a disconnect between different points you bring up in your posts. There was the one last page that I still feel odd about (you say it’s sarcastic but go on to say there’s a legitimate chance Pine’s not reading the game - it’s hard for me to buy into your thought process), and your comments in your most recent post about Ruby Red don’t quite piece together. You’re confident RR’s read on you wasn’t real, yet it’s essentially the only thing she pushes during this game and you say it’s different than the other times she’s pushed you. You’ve got a sense of confidence about your thoughts here that confuses me.

I think he's reading the game and following along but only responding to the things that are useful to him.

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

Like this has been talked to death over the past month. I said it multiple times yestrday, I eventually got sando to agree with this yesterday, tw agreed with me day2.

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

Hmmm

That's actually a pretty solid point.

UNVOTE:

Like I just don't buy that he's *just* considering this now when it's been a major topic of discussion for literally dayphases and he's interacting with the thread and with other posters. Like I'm saying that the only way this makes sense to me if he isn't scum and isn't doing this on purpose is if he's only reading some random posts and literally ignoring all the other ones and all other context and like .... he just doesn't seem like the type of dude to do that. And like, he's ignoring me pointing out that this is what he's doing when he's clearly reading the thread.

I don't know how to elaborate on the ruby red thing without talking about her main. I've played with town!her a lot on her main. She scumreads me practically every time, and she's always wrong, but she usually re-evaluates. Sometimes she comes to the right conclusion, sometimes not. Here she just declared me scum without interacting with me at all - she was complaining that I wasn't behaving the way I usually do day1, which was true for irl reasons, but I was behaving the way she's familiar with how town!me behaves day2 and day3 and there was just no re-evaluation at any point.

She also like never laser-focuses on one player and declares them scum and then disappears for weeks as town without really pushing them or having a reads progression or exhibiting reevaluation. She doesn't like focus in on one person but is instead open to re-evaluation and like listening to people and interacting with people and like ... trying to gamesolve. She's good enough to be BoP'd and her only having the one read (that I know is wrong) and not pushing anything else was just a major red flag.

--

Anyway, more on why I suspect you’re the wolf. It centers around your interactions with AP on D2. There’s a large shift in your attitude this game from your very first post on D2 - you smack your vote on AP and never take it off. The impression I have is that you decided you were going to be pushing AP during the night phase, regardless of your alignment. From the moment you vote AP to the moment tw claims the guilty on him, you focus in on AP hard, and AP focuses right back on you. You’re making arguments, but generally they’re not persuading anyone, and no one else joins your wagon. You make the comment shortly before tw claims that you don’t think AP is going to be the day’s lynch.

Idk what to say beyond that I'm good at reading AP and the one and only time I read him wrong was the first time I ever played with him; I've since read him correctly as scum, figured out his alt (ie I figured out who AP was on alt for), and read him correctly as town on meta when he was deliberately changing his playstyle on the alt.

Also if I was scum with AP I never bus him since he has a much better scumgame than me. If there's any bussing either way he busses me (especially given how *I* was the one under suspicion at the end of day1), although I think we'd try to avoid that tbh.

Yes, I really was *that* sure at the start of day2 because he doesn't play that way as town. And I was trying quite hard to get him lynched, thank you very much. And I think he was trying to stave me off at daystart because he knows from the last time we did this that I'm really that stubborn and that I'll just keep shouting this to anyone who would listen till dayend.

Like from my POV wolf!me bussing AP is asinine given that: a) I figured out tw was the seer day1 and didn't kill him b) I started the day voting my partner c) I asked the seer (who coincidentally had a guilty on my partner) why he wasn't voting my partner d) I support the seer once he outs a guilty on my partner e) I repeatedly tell my partner that his plan is stupid

and just like ... this is so beyond hilariously out of my scumrange and something that I honestly can't imagine myself doing ever. And like ... I can't imagine being so *stubborn* and *forceful* about it. Like if I majorly suspect that tw is the seer I don't like ... direct him at AP and try to convince him to wagon him with me.

The abrupt shift in your posts and AP’s on D2 is what really sells me on it. That, along with the feeling of general dissonance in your most recent posts, leaves me confident in you being the wolf.

also, the shift in my posts was an irl thing and I believe I said that multiple times at that point of the game.

--

ceejay seems to at least not be ww, I’d have to look in more detail to have confidence in him as town... but let’s call it leaning town for now?

ceejay isn't maf because pin was gunning for him day1

[UglyDuck]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

[ArcAngel9]

VOTE COUNT - 4.1

Pine

- skitter30, ceejayvinoya

skitter30

- Klick, UglyDuck

ceejayvinoya

-

UglyDuck

-

Not_Mafia

-

Klick

-

Not Voting

Pine, Not_Mafia,

With 6 alive it takes 4 for a lynch and 3 for no lynch.
Day 4 ends in (expired on 2018-07-03 18:19:00)

[/b][/color]

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

Garbage vote

[skitter30]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

a) why do you think I'm the wolf?

b) what sort of information, pray tell, do you think you'll be gaining from my flip?

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

Lols.

I'm sooo darn tempted to lynch UD and call it a day.

[Pine]

Right?

[skitter30]

I want to lynch Pine though, and failing that, NM

[UglyDuck]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

Garbage vote

Yep why do you think that?
Btw you are next.

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

Going to leave this for now, not necessarily because I’m convinced skitter’s free from suspicion, but because I need time to look at skitter’s meta and validate his claims, and I won’t have that time until the end of the weekend. In the meantime, he’s the person posting the most reasonable content right now. A lot of skitter’s response to me is based on meta so it’s difficult to respond without context of what he’s claiming. I think it’s

probably

safe to assume the meta claims are true for now until I can give them a proper check.

Going to be looking into Pine’s slot now. As it stands he, NM and ceejay are the players I’m most likely to vote; I stand by my UD townread.

@Pine: Could you talk to me about your NM townread? Because as I said before I have zero clue on how to read him, and you seem to have some idea of how to go about it.

[Not_Mafia]

I want to lynch Pine though, and failing that, NM

Tragic