Open 755: Two-Fold C9++ (Day 6)

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chennisden
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Post Post #2900  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 8:54 am

ok

HOW AM I NOT DEAD

Titus
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Post Post #2901  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 8:57 am

Dunno. I still need to look at things. I hope someone can color the VCs for me.
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chennisden
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Post Post #2902  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 9:24 am

D4?

chennisden
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Post Post #2903  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 9:25 am

In post 2640, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 2636, chennisden wrote:
In post 2634, Aristophanes wrote:I promised a VC last night but didn'tdo one because I'm being kinda neglectful right now and I apologize.

Aiming for an updated one tonight.

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VOTECOUNT 4.1

With 11 alive, it will take 6 to lynch (3 at deadline).
Day 4 starts now and will end on May 18, 2019 | 1:00:00 PM Chicago Time.

Titus – 2/5 – Baezu, Fuscosco
Baezu – 3/5 – DuckDuckJab, Titus, Almost50
Creature – 0/5 –
Fuscosco – 1/5 –chennisden
davesaz – 0/5 –
DuckDuckJab – 0/5 –
chennisden – 0/5 –
Almost50 – 0/5 –

––––––––––––––––
No Lynch – 0/5 –

Not Voting: davesaz, Creature


Mod Notes:
I did it! =D

chennisden
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Post Post #2904  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 9:26 am

In post 2851, Aristophanes wrote:Yayaya I got a pagetop and kept it for the VC without editing powers! What a good night! =D

VOTECOUNT 4.2

With 11 alive, it will take 6 to lynch (3 at deadline).
Deadline: May 18, 2019 | 1:00:00 PM Chicago Time.

Titus – 3/5 – Baezu, Fuscosco, davesaz
[color=#FF8000]Baezu – 4/5 –[/color] DuckDuckJab, Titus, Almost50, chennisden [L-1]
Creature – 0/5 –
Fuscosco – 0/5 –
davesaz – 0/5 –
DuckDuckJab – 0/5 –
chennisden – 0/5 –
Almost50 – 0/5 –

––––––––––––––––
No Lynch – 0/5 –

Not Voting: Creature


Mod Notes:
Byee Zeus is V/LA as noted above.

chennisden
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Post Post #2905  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 9:27 am

In post 2882, Aristophanes wrote:DAY 4: FINAL VOTECOUNT

Titus – 2/5 – Baezu, davesaz
Baezu – 5/5 – DuckDuckJab, Titus, Almost50, chennisden, Fuscosco - LYNCH!
Creature – 0/5 –
Fuscosco – 0/5 –
davesaz – 0/5 –
DuckDuckJab – 0/5 –
chennisden – 0/5 –
Almost50 – 0/5 –

––––––––––––––––
No Lynch – 0/5 –

Not Voting: Creature

chennisden
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Post Post #2906  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 9:27 am

I will never understand the Creature NK.

chennisden
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Post Post #2907  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 9:28 am

Titus were you drunk N3?

chennisden
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Post Post #2908  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 9:28 am

Or sober?

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Post Post #2909  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 10:57 am

More likely drunk. It was a friend's birthday. Why?
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davesaz
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Post Post #2910  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 12:40 pm

So both mafia were on that lynch, and I think it's likely that mafia pushed it.
I'm happy to be wrong.
Mafia haven't made the obvious next move yet. The obvious motivation to kill Creature is to leave me as the designated mislynch. There's no way the remaining town would have bought into a Creature lynch.

I'm gonna be honest here, it could be any 2 of the 5 of you. You may not like it, but that's how I play.
Mafia could leave town!chennisden alive for the wifom of why he didn't die, or scum!chennisden could be faking puzzlement on surviving. A hard bus to gain ultimate towncred is never off the table.
I still like the odds of Titus and/or A50 being scum based on D1-D3 wagons. If they're both town it shapes up to a LYLO day being no easier to solve than MYLO.

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Post Post #2911  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 12:43 pm

I think you have a basic assumption wrong. Mafia would not want a wolf dead there. Mafia benefit from the KPN unless they felt certain the wolf would kill them. Why are you supposing both mafia pushed it?

How does your analysis change is you feel both mafia didn't push it?

Why do you think both mafia were on the lynch? This post feels more like you wrote it trying to fit me into a mafia box.
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davesaz
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Post Post #2912  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 1:00 pm

I'm the only living person not on the lynch, and I'm town.
Therefore both mafia must be on the lynch.
What's unexpected here is that they must have thought I was wolf, which is weird but whatever.

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Post Post #2913  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 1:21 pm

Well that makes sense. Sorry I am a little tired. I kinda see your point on you being the mislynch possible because from my perspective you look like the optimal lynch.

So humor, me, if I am town, who is scum?
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davesaz
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Post Post #2914  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 1:53 pm

Another possibility is that mafia didn't care about losing the extra KPN, which means they're expecting to sail through.
That's a major part of feeling like it could be pretty much anyone at this point in time. Maybe they even have 2-3 mislynch possibilities.
We really need to buckle down and analyze stuff, instead of sheeping each other into oblivion.
I was extremely unhappy with the lack of actual cases yesterday.

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Post Post #2915  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 2:02 pm

In post 2911, Titus wrote:Why do you think both mafia were on the lynch? This post feels more like you wrote it trying to fit me into a mafia box.


Titus, dave was the only living player off the Baezu wagon. If he is town (or wants to pretend to be town) then it's a no brainer both Mafia were on the lynch. The question is whether dave is town indeed or is trying to clear himself using the fact he was not on the wagon.
Records: W/L
Town: 24/19, Mafia: 5/4, 3P: 1/1
Modded 2 Normals & 2 Themed games successfully.

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Post Post #2916  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 2:08 pm

In post 2912, davesaz wrote:What's unexpected here is that they must have thought I was wolf, which is weird but whatever.


You can't have your cake and eat it too, dave. If that's what you think then you must have me as a town lean at the very least. I was pushing Baezu a -specifically- the lone wolf and I made my case linking him to Vortuka (how Vortuka followed his lad after skitter was gone).

I am not trying to use this to clear myself to the rest of the players though. I am just saying you "treating all 5 of us equally" at this point doesn't make sense. Then again it didn't make sense to me that you'd think Chenn would bus his p through a false guilty so early when nobody knew exactly what to expect from the setup.
Records: W/L
Town: 24/19, Mafia: 5/4, 3P: 1/1
Modded 2 Normals & 2 Themed games successfully.

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Post Post #2917  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 2:11 pm

In post 2914, davesaz wrote:I was extremely unhappy with the lack of actual cases yesterday.


Again, ISO my posts from yesterday. I was confident Baezu flips Wolf, and I did make a case (at least from my PoV that was a good case).
Records: W/L
Town: 24/19, Mafia: 5/4, 3P: 1/1
Modded 2 Normals & 2 Themed games successfully.

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Post Post #2918  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 2:58 pm

I'm waiting to get some time to do some thorough analysis and rereading stuff.
Also as this is mylo I want ducks and I to discuss privately first and agree before posting major conclusions.

In the meantime, A50 tell me why you can't be partners with Titus or fusco.

Also I barely saw any VCA from titus despite being promised several times to everyone. Is your legendary technique just compiling quotes and coloring in the names?
"Rumor has it he's that infamous human-sized duck. We don't know if it's true, but trust me, you don't want to fight him" - Chuck Norris

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Post Post #2919  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 3:03 pm

Also how do you read dave right now? You leaned town for him after the VCA but then you started interacted and it seems to have flipped, Is that correct?
"Rumor has it he's that infamous human-sized duck. We don't know if it's true, but trust me, you don't want to fight him" - Chuck Norris

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Post Post #2920  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 3:03 pm

In post 2919, DuckDuckJab wrote:Also how do you read dave right now? You leaned town for him after the VCA but then you started interacted and it seems to have flipped, Is that correct?


@Titus
"Rumor has it he's that infamous human-sized duck. We don't know if it's true, but trust me, you don't want to fight him" - Chuck Norris

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Post Post #2921  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 3:04 pm

I see Titus mention VCA a lot.
I don't know if the follow through / lack thereof is AI or not.

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Post Post #2922  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 3:26 pm

In post 2716, Almost50 wrote:Let's see..

IF Baezu is Mafia; her p is in Fuscosco/dave/Creature Wolf is between Titus/DDJ (I refuse to believe this is the case because I think Titus could be Mafia but not Wolf and I TR DDJ)

If Baezu is Town; Fuscosco/dave/Creature have no incentive to defend her as either Mafia/WW, so they should also be Town. Add chenn and you get DDJ/Titus/A50 as the anti-town trio (Obviously this is not the case because -at least- I know my own alignment)

If Baezu is WW; Fuscosco/dave are town, but Creature could very well be Mafia who wants to let Baezu live to get another kill through, but doesn't want to push elsewhere so as not to be too obvious. (Some will object to that logic, I know,, but it's how I think of it). The Other Mafioso should be Titus still. (Explains why he coupled me with her as the Mafia team. If she ever flips he can push for me next, and if he is flipped first he's distanced himself from her enough).

So, I think Baezu is almost confirmed WW by now.

P-edit: @dave: Please read this post and evaluate. We can lynch Titus tomorrow still.

I see some POE here.

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Post Post #2923  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 3:28 pm

In post 2719, Almost50 wrote:We don't need quotes anymore. It's how the votes went and why. Neither the Mafia nor the WW have any motive to try to derail a "miclynch" at this point, so Baezu is not a townie by any account. If she was, then she would have been lynched already (and she was @L-1, unless you believe I am Mafia/WW AND so are DDJ/Titus).

People don't always take the optimum path.
Also, this doesn't help with identifying which people already on the wagon were scum.

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Post Post #2924  (ISO)  » Thu May 16, 2019 3:38 pm

Are there claims that I've missed / forgotten?
I think it's time now with it being MYLO.

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