Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Day 4]

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Umlaut
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Post Post #1800  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:03 am

In post 1798, Titus wrote:I'd consider that from Ydrasse onto A50. The Monotosh wagon was too pure.

I mean. At most two of the people on any wagon can possibly be scum, so "all but two people who voted Montosh are town" is not information we would not have anyway and I don't see how we can use it as evidence one way or the other for anything.
“Umlaut is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, coated in something sticky.” – boring

Almost50
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Post Post #1801  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:34 am

In post 1786, Snowblaze wrote:There has to be at least one scum in (RCE, Raya, S_S) imo, since I don't think it's plausible that any of Menalque/Ydrasse/A50 are partnered with each other.

@everyone: who do you think is most likely scum in those three?


The one I'm currently voting?
Records of 2020 (W/L): 1/0 - 1/1 - 0/0
Outed alts: AP, Judge Joseph Dredd & 50 Judge Powers
Modded 2 Normals & 2 Themed games successfully.

Raya36
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Post Post #1802  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:09 pm

In post 1786, Snowblaze wrote:There has to be at least one scum in (RCE, Raya, S_S) imo, since I don't think it's plausible that any of Menalque/Ydrasse/A50 are partnered with each other.

@everyone: who do you think is most likely scum in those three?

Missed this. I guess S_S if any. I think RCE is town now

northsidegal
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Post Post #1803  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:03 pm

Votecount 3.2Menalque............(3): RCEnigma (), Ydrasse (), Raya36 ()
Ydrasse.............(2): Titus (), Menalque ()
Something_Smart.....(2): Snowblaze (), Almost50 ()

Not Voting..........(4): Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Something_Smart, Eevee ()

With 11 alive, it’s 6 to lynch. The Day 3 deadline is in 3 days, 7 hours, 51 minutes.

Ydrasse
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Post Post #1804  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:47 pm

ergh. not feeling up to mafia much today.

@snowblaze: why can't menalque/a50 be the scumteam? if i read it i am blanking right now.
。・:*:・゚★,。・:*:・゚

Fredrick A Campbell
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Post Post #1805  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:54 pm

In post 1799, Raya36 wrote:
In post 1796, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
In post 1795, Raya36 wrote:I'm still debating the idea that the whole vote on A50 thing then make a last minute case on montosh was a gambit. I mean if A50 and Menalque are scum together that was probably the best move for distancing and also a final last scramble to get the elimination on someone else

A gambit that may have cost them the game.

But the wagon on A50 was already building up. Menalque not voting A50 likely wouldn't stop it

I somehow misunderstood that post. Forgive me.

Raya36
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Post Post #1806  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:06 pm

No worries, do you agree that it's possible A50 and Menalque could be a team? That whole wagon redirect from A50 to town by Menalque was too bad for me to ignore and reads exactly as desperate scum to me.

Fredrick A Campbell
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Post Post #1807  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:08 pm

In post 1806, Raya36 wrote:No worries, do you agree that it's possible A50 and Menalque could be a team? That whole wagon redirect from A50 to town by Menalque was too bad for me to ignore and reads exactly as desperate scum to me.

I do. Didn't reach that conclusion independently, however.

Umlaut
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Post Post #1808  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:10 pm

Who here has experience with scum!Menalque? Would he have the audacity to put his last living partner at L-2 in a white flag game? Based on my zero experience with scum!Menalque, I suspect the answer is yes.
“Umlaut is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, coated in something sticky.” – boring

Menalque
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Post Post #1809  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:14 pm

I once counterclaimed skitter as a 1 shot vig in mylo and then retracted to a full vig claim which would have meant a like 3% chance of that setup existing and then won in that mylo, so yeah, sure, I probably would if I felt the game was losing if we didn’t risk it
“I thought Menalque played a measured and dashing game.” ~ FakeGod

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Post Post #1810  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:15 pm

Also, in this PL I wanna say A50 and S_S are the only ones to have played against scum!me
“I thought Menalque played a measured and dashing game.” ~ FakeGod

Menalque
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Post Post #1811  (ISO)  » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:15 pm

Okay, leaving again
“I thought Menalque played a measured and dashing game.” ~ FakeGod

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Post Post #1812  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:46 am

In post 1804, Ydrasse wrote:ergh. not feeling up to mafia much today.

@snowblaze: why can't menalque/a50 be the scumteam? if i read it i am blanking right now.


Explained in . Plus I seem to remember Titus’s VCA says it’s impossible, but considering said VCA is advocating your death I can see why you maybe wouldn’t trust it that much.

Raya36
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Post Post #1813  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:53 am

Hey Snow, what do you think of my A50/Menalque theory?

Snowblaze
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Post Post #1814  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:24 am

In post 1813, Raya36 wrote:Hey Snow, what do you think of my A50/Menalque theory?


The post literally above yours is an explanation from me of why I don't think it's likely.

Fredrick A Campbell
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Post Post #1815  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:31 am

I propose we execute Menalque far before the deadline since nobody seems to be interested in doing anything else. Should anyone agree, I will place my vote. That is, if I am online.

Snowblaze
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Post Post #1816  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:35 am

In post 1815, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:I propose we execute Menalque far before the deadline since nobody seems to be interested in doing anything else. Should anyone agree, I will place my vote. That is, if I am online.


I object to this proposal. Firstly because I think Menalque is town, and secondly because even if you think he's scum we should still be using the time to work out who's scum if he flips town.

Raya36
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Post Post #1817  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:50 am

In post 1814, Snowblaze wrote:
In post 1813, Raya36 wrote:Hey Snow, what do you think of my A50/Menalque theory?


The post literally above yours is an explanation from me of why I don't think it's likely.

I know but we're looking at the same thing two different ways and I was wondering what you thought of my take on it

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Post Post #1818  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:57 am

Your theory is based on:
- Menalque started a flashwagon away from A50 towards Montosh at the end of day two
- everyone except Menalque and A50 on the Montosh wagon was conftown

Is that right, or am I missing something?

I don't really agree with the logic of "there must be at least one scum on the wagon" - there's no reason why there has to be imo. As for the other part, I'll read back through the last couple of days of day two and get back to you on that.

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Post Post #1819  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:12 am

The A50 wagon picks up with Umlaut, Fredrick and Eevee's votes in , and respectively.

The vote count at this point is:
Almost50 4 (Ydrasse, Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Eevee)
Ydrasse 3 (Almost50, Titus, Menalque)
Menalque 2 (Montosh, RCEnigma)
Raya36 1 (Something_Smart)

With approximately two days until deadline.

Menalque is at first non-commital, but switches over to A50. He doesn't post his case on Montosh until the next day, with ~12-18 hours until deadline. Which is an utterly crazy move if they're scum partners. Surely he would have done something sooner rather than risking that high a chance of just losing?

Raya36
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Post Post #1820  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:15 am

Only the first point. I see the flaw in saying that scum must be on the wagon therefore must be within the unconfirmed on the wagon.

But I do think there's a chance menalque was desperately trying to get the wagon off of A50

Snowblaze
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Post Post #1821  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:17 am

In post 1820, Raya36 wrote:Only the first point. I see the flaw in saying that scum must be on the wagon therefore must be within the unconfirmed on the wagon.

But I do think there's a chance menalque was desperately trying to get the wagon off of A50

And you don't think he tries to do that an awful lot earlier than he did if he's scum with A50?

Raya36
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Post Post #1822  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:22 am

The wagon wasn't really in that bad of a position until close to deadline anyway

Umlaut
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Post Post #1823  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:29 am

Raya, is your case that Menalque is scum dependent on A50 being scum? If so, wouldn't it make more sense to lynch A50 today?
“Umlaut is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, coated in something sticky.” – boring

Almost50
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Post Post #1824  (ISO)  » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:45 pm

Nothing new here. :( It's still the same story of "It's A50/Menalque.. no it isn't,, yes it is.. let's eliminate A50.. mo let's do Menalque."

Let me tell you that I'm confident both scum are being wagoned as we speak. I am just voting the one I'm more confident in, and since the game uses plurality; I don't think I'll be switching my vote in the foreseen future.
Records of 2020 (W/L): 1/0 - 1/1 - 0/0
Outed alts: AP, Judge Joseph Dredd & 50 Judge Powers
Modded 2 Normals & 2 Themed games successfully.

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