Open 811 - Lovers and Losers (New Game+) [Game Over]

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yessiree
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Post Post #500  (ISO)  » Sun May 16, 2021 8:13 pm

VC 1.7

With 9 votes, it takes 5 to eliminate

Vex Vience (2) - LlamaFluff, Bambi Jay
Bambi Jay (2) - RationalMadman, Kerset
T-Bone (1) - Bingle
Bingle (1) - Vex Vience
Kerset (1) - Klick

Note Voting - T-Bone, Anastasia

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-05-23 22:00:00)
Last edited by yessiree on Mon May 17, 2021 5:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

LlamaFluff
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Post Post #501  (ISO)  » Sun May 16, 2021 8:39 pm

In post 499, T-Bone wrote:I'd rather do the lovers first. Two main reasons. 1) It's 50-50 from my perspective. 2) The benefit to getting it right on Day 1 is greater than getting the VT right on Day 1, in terms of confirmed towns floating around (which synergizes with point 1)

Also I feel stronger about the lover's pair at this point. My ghost vote is on Bingle/Kerset.


Still not entirely sure I buy the Lovers is right due to confirmed town (as noted a lover pair is basically a hydra who both heads post) but... what is split to you for right pair? Most people have been saying RM/Ana are town... thoughts on that one?
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Post Post #502  (ISO)  » Sun May 16, 2021 10:15 pm

In post 477, Kerset wrote:
In post 460, Anastasia wrote:Tell me you are aligned with the town and I'll be yours, heart and soul.

Sure i am


I don't feel sure in my heart when I hear this and it scares me...

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Post Post #503  (ISO)  » Sun May 16, 2021 10:16 pm

In post 491, LlamaFluff wrote:Can I get all lover pairs opinions on the RM/Ana duo?


I think Ana is unhappy with her new lover because Kerset has left a hole in her heart and RM doesn't seem to care at all.

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Post Post #504  (ISO)  » Sun May 16, 2021 10:45 pm

In post 499, T-Bone wrote:I'd rather do the lovers first. Two main reasons. 1) It's 50-50 from my perspective. 2) The benefit to getting it right on Day 1 is greater than getting the VT right on Day 1, in terms of confirmed towns floating around (which synergizes with point 1)


This, btw, is the exact argument RM had before game 1.

It's wrong (still) but I can understand the argument.

Functionally, we have two sets of three players. one of those sets is hydrae. If the hydrae are better at reading the game they're more valuable, but that assumes the hydrae are better at reading the game. From each individual player's POV, solving in your own pool is easier, but that just means that half of the functionally 4 townies will have an easier time in either pool. It's not actually a mechanical advantage to eliminate in either pool and people should 100% just be going after their strongest scumread for the first lim. (or alternatively, their strongest scumread in a pool where they can locktown someone.)

Kerset, are we agreed that Llama is town, or am I personality biasing here?
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Post Post #505  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 3:06 am

I kind of want to give a BoP shot to Llama because I know from playing with him last game that he is highly competent and also by far the scariest player to play against if he is scum.

A BoP shot would neutralize his influence if he were scum while also giving him a solid chance to win the VT side if he were town - it's a move I really like to use when dealing with players of a high caliber in a small POE setting such as this.

Because here is the POV difference:

For Town!LLama, he knows he must get this shot correct between VV & Bambi Jay, because if he misses, he dies next and the town loses the game.

He must put maximum effort into his solve - to give the town the best odds of winning the game.

For Scum!Llama, he knows it doesn't matter what his solve is, he will die next elimination no matter which townie he pushes out for the first elim.

This creates a readable difference between what LlamaPuff does.

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Post Post #506  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 3:08 am

Of course he knows he will have to put in lots of effort even if he is scum, in hopes that we believe he is in good faith doing this even when his initial target flips town.

However if we are ironclad in our resolve that we eliminate llama next, or even go the extra step as to eliminate llama first and killing his BoP suspicion only after he flips town, that can eliminate the motivation for Scum!LLama to tryhard the solve.

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Post Post #507  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 3:26 am

I think there's a slight advantage to voting in the lovers as you're left with more ACTUAL confirmed townies upon success, meaning more town influence over the vote. If we hit the scum lovers for example, all of a sudden we have four conftown that can control how we vote and one scum with a vote. That's a lot better than the alternative, having 2 conftown and 2 scum players influencing the vote.

Basically in terms of alignment they're equivalent, but in terms of game influence the lovers are more valuable.

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Post Post #508  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 3:26 am

In post 505, Anastasia wrote:I kind of want to give a BoP shot to Llama because I know from playing with him last game that he is highly competent and also by far the scariest player to play against if he is scum.

A BoP shot would neutralize his influence if he were scum while also giving him a solid chance to win the VT side if he were town - it's a move I really like to use when dealing with players of a high caliber in a small POE setting such as this.

Because here is the POV difference:

For Town!LLama, he knows he must get this shot correct between VV & Bambi Jay, because if he misses, he dies next and the town loses the game.

He must put maximum effort into his solve - to give the town the best odds of winning the game.

For Scum!Llama, he knows it doesn't matter what his solve is, he will die next elimination no matter which townie he pushes out for the first elim.

This creates a readable difference between what LlamaPuff does.

Yeah but I don't think Llama is scum

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Post Post #509  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 3:38 am

I have doubts that we would be able to detect Llama if he was scum.

His play is very strong and I think he would have a good chance of winning against VV and Bambi if he were the scum.

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Post Post #510  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 4:18 am

Then why is your answer to that voting him second instead of reading the other two?

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Post Post #511  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 4:21 am

I don't think Ana comes out with this play in her position as scum
right now her lover pair is positioned best and on paper this plan is sketchy af. Why come out with something like this and potentially ruin their spot?

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Post Post #512  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 4:30 am

In post 511, Klick wrote:I don't think Ana comes out with this play in her position as scum
right now her lover pair is positioned best and on paper this plan is sketchy af. Why come out with something like this and potentially ruin their spot?


?

You realize you suggested basically the same plan but generalized a while back, right? Why is it suddenly sketchy as fuck?
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"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden

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Post Post #513  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 4:39 am

In post 507, Klick wrote:I think there's a slight advantage to voting in the lovers as you're left with more ACTUAL confirmed townies upon success, meaning more town influence over the vote. If we hit the scum lovers for example, all of a sudden we have four conftown that can control how we vote and one scum with a vote. That's a lot better than the alternative, having 2 conftown and 2 scum players influencing the vote.

Basically in terms of alignment they're equivalent, but in terms of game influence the lovers are more valuable.


Again, no.

If successful elim, more town votes. If unsuccessful elim more scum votes. This is true regardless of pool. More people =/= better reads.

The answer, mechanically and subjectively, will always be “eliminate the scummiest person D1. If you didn’t hit scum, try again in the same pool.”
"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden

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Post Post #514  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 5:35 am

In post 493, LlamaFluff wrote:
In post 492, Kerset wrote:VOTE: Bambi Jay


Awesome. So what is your opinion on the RM/Ana duo? Vex too for that matter.

RM has unique style and no records to compare but i lean towards him being town. Vex raises red flags.
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Post Post #515  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 5:36 am

In post 504, Bingle wrote:meone.)

Kerset, are we agreed that Llama is town, or am I personality biasing here?

for me its PoE but yea
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Post Post #516  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 5:38 am

In post 507, Klick wrote:I think there's a slight advantage to voting in the lovers as you're left with more ACTUAL confirmed townies upon success, meaning more town influence over the vote. If we hit the scum lovers for example, all of a sudden we have four conftown that can control how we vote and one scum with a vote. That's a lot better than the alternative, having 2 conftown and 2 scum players influencing the vote.

Basically in terms of alignment they're equivalent, but in terms of game influence the lovers are more valuable.

Confirmed townies won't help us solve this, they are only good in normals where 2 confirms in f3 wins the game. For solve we need analyzable data and the more subjects for observation we got the better.
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Post Post #517  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 6:15 am

In post 512, Bingle wrote:
In post 511, Klick wrote:I don't think Ana comes out with this play in her position as scum
right now her lover pair is positioned best and on paper this plan is sketchy af. Why come out with something like this and potentially ruin their spot?


?

You realize you suggested basically the same plan but generalized a while back, right? Why is it suddenly sketchy as fuck?

The plan I suggested: vote someone we think is scum and if we're wrong, they choose who goes after them
The plan Ana suggested: vote who Llama thinks is scum (Llama currently suspects Vex) and then vote Llama if he's wrong

One of these is a general method of successfully eliminating scum even if we miss the first time
The other is just suggesting we vote Vex and Llama

The generalisation is important

Bingle wrote:
In post 507, Klick wrote:I think there's a slight advantage to voting in the lovers as you're left with more ACTUAL confirmed townies upon success, meaning more town influence over the vote. If we hit the scum lovers for example, all of a sudden we have four conftown that can control how we vote and one scum with a vote. That's a lot better than the alternative, having 2 conftown and 2 scum players influencing the vote.

Basically in terms of alignment they're equivalent, but in terms of game influence the lovers are more valuable.


Again, no.

If successful elim, more town votes. If unsuccessful elim more scum votes. This is true regardless of pool. More people =/= better reads.

The answer, mechanically and subjectively, will always be “eliminate the scummiest person D1. If you didn’t hit scum, try again in the same pool.”

More town + less scum = more town influence over the vote

Another way of looking at it is that each of the lover pairs is a slot with a double vote. We'd rather eliminate the scum that has a double vote, and we'd also rather keep the town alive that has a double vote. (unless we're just agreeing that one there's confirmed town, they finalise any vote we make?)

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Post Post #518  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 8:18 am

In post 510, Klick wrote:Then why is your answer to that voting him second instead of reading the other two?


the idea is to put pressure on Llama to make the decision and make him readable.

I don't see anything that I would be willing to bet the game on in terms of a post that is alignment indicative one way or the other and it feels like the game is beginning to stall a bit.

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Post Post #519  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 8:23 am

Ana's plan is not a good plan, it won't end up with a Bambi elimination.

I don't care about that she wants to punish Llama for being a good player, I care that Bambi won't end up voted off on that plan.

I don't really care what we plan, I just want my scumreads eliminated. Bambi, Klick and Tbone are the most probable team at the moment for me.

Assuming that's wrong, I think that Vex, Klick and Tbone is viable as well as Llama with either pair. There is no use punishing Llama for a vote on Vex being wrong when Bambi is the least towny vanilla of them all in the first place.

All Bambi has done this game is post generic things with no reads at all. Last game Bambi was nervous to vote anyone, this game she is happy to vote EVERYONE, though her vote on Klick was more of a joke random vote.

The best move here is to either vote Bambi or vote Klick and Tbone because if Bambi flips Town, I am quite sure that Kerset and Bingle are the pair. I will reveal why later, it comes down to several interactions. The only way this is wrong is if Bambi has intentionally set out to give off distanced tells with a bus as part of the overall scum strategy. If you observe Klick and Tbone with Bambi it's almost like they are working around each other with no clash, that is how partners tend to be when they don't feel pressure to distance.

If Bambi flips scum, I am sure the partners are Klick and Tbone.

Alternatively, if we go ahead with this Vex elimination and Vex flips Town, we have revealed extremely little about the pairs of lovers, Llama and Bambi being left makes both pairs pretty damn viable.

If we eliminate Llama today, it is almost as good as Bambi because Vex and Bambi have even more polarisation than Llama and Bambi vs the pairs but I want a Bambi elim because Bambi is my scumread and in the end that is all that matters to me, we can talk this plan and that plan but in the end it's just a cover-up for the truth; I don't care if llama is the best player on the planet, if I townread Llama over Bambi, I will not unnecessarily do some weird 'vote correct or we vote you next' threat, especially not when Bambi is who Llama wants to leave alive.
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Post Post #520  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 8:24 am

In post 519, RationalMadman wrote:Bambi flips Town, I am quite sure that Kerset and Bingle are the pair.

To be clear, this means 'scum pair' when I say 'the pair'.
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Post Post #521  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 8:28 am

In post 519, RationalMadman wrote:The only way this is wrong is if Bambi has intentionally set out to give off distanced tells with a bus as part of the overall scum strategy

Sorry, this is backwards logic, what I meant was that the only way scum-Bambi isn't with scum-Klick-and-Tbone is if scum-Bambi and scum-Kerset-and-Bingle set out to distance.

There is an extreme polarisation going on two-way where Kerset and Bambi have interacted in ways partners would not, starting with the vote Bambi placed on Kerset. Conversely, Kerset responded to Bambi's vote on her in ways that imply Kerset to be town but is also how scum would reply to known-Town.

It involves more, if you go to interactions between Bambi and Kerset, it is not partner-like from either end.

Klick and Tbone can be scum if Bambi is Town, I realise I wrote a wrong logical sequence here, however it is unlikely but that is due to other interactions or lack thereof. I feel scum Klick and Tbone would interact far more with Town Bambi in some situations that have arisen thus far, instead it's like they avoid each other.
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Post Post #522  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 8:30 am

Why are you so tunneled on Bambi Scum?

I don't think you've considered very strongly the possibility you are just wrong here.

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Post Post #523  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 8:31 am

and I am not punishing Llama for being a good player.

I am trying to create dispersion in his behavior to read him.

It's not the same thing.

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Post Post #524  (ISO)  » Mon May 17, 2021 8:35 am

He is also ignoring I have given a readlist before, and have stated my preferences for today multiple times as well. 519 basically sounds more like they just want me gone for even stupider reasons. Kerset voted me and Llama is actually evaluating his options, but it felt more like you've targeted me for my playstyle only, plus it feels more like a grudge because I started most of the Ration jokes and others followed along.

Ana what do YOU think of me?

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