Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS

[Raya36]

They didn't convert me, because they have no benefit from that.

Yes they do.. no chance of their convert being stopped. I feel pretty confident in saying cult either recruited you or no recruited. And the fact that you're arguing they have no benefit from recruiting you makes me think you were recruited. But like I said, doesn't matter until we get the CL.

So I'm going with Osuka is clear. I believe Flea and don't think they would've been recruited since they were quite aggressive. I think cult would have gone for someone more townread but less confrontational. (Outside of going for PR Enchant of course)

[Dwlee99]

If cult leader!osuka caught the crumb I guess it would make more sense to recruit flea than to no target, but then what if enchant rolestopped flea? It is implausible but certainly possible

It's not really possible, assuming that both claims are 'true' in the sense the players were assigned the roles they claim at the beginning of the game (but may have been culted last night) and that townies don't lie about their actions.

• If Enchant
  was
  culted, they may lie about their target but Flea is town and would tell us if they got a no-result last night. Instead Flea claims a "did not go anywhere" result.
  
• If Enchant
  wasn't
  culted, they're telling the truth and rolestopped Mark, not Osuka (I assume this is what you mean rather than "rolestopped Flea")

My point was that if cult leader!osuka suspects that he will be tracked at night, the best play could be to target flea or to no action. If targets flea he risks enchant having picked fae.

[Dwlee99]

Wait I responded to an old post, one second

[Dwlee99]

Honestly I think it's about a 2000% chance that Enchant got culted anyway so any line of hypotheticals that starts with "if Flea got culted" is probably not worth thinking too hard about

Do you disagree, Dwlee?

I'm not sold on it but it seems likely yes

[Flea The Magician]

So then you need to disregard my claim, and vote Osuka.

If you believe my claim, Osuka is cult PR clear.
If you believe I'm culted, and by Osuka, you need to vote there.

[Dwlee99]

Why are you trying to goad me into voting there?

[Umlaut]

It's possible Flea misread your "yes" as "yes, I disagree" (or I suppose it's possible that I misread it as agreement and Flea read it correctly)

[Dwlee99]

Oh I meant the part about enchant being chosen was likely, yea.

[Enchant]

So then you need to disregard my claim, and vote Osuka.

If you believe my claim, Osuka is cult PR clear.
If you believe I'm culted, and by Osuka, you need to vote there.

I believe your claim.
Osuka is not clear. Simple because Cult could skip. How do i know that? I AM NOT CONVERTED WHILE I WAS OBVIOUS TARGET FOR THIS.

[Marky Mark]

Well that escalated quickly

Cult no-recruiting last night seems pretty unlikely IMO (and as such, Dwlee's 702 feels like wishful thinking)

[Marky Mark]

Here's where I'm at:
If Flea is town then Raya/T3's CL equity is through the roof as Osuka is effectivly clear barring a no-action
If Flea was culted then Osuka not necessarily CL, but there's a decent chance given how Flea came to their aid when they were under pressure

So I guess this essentially boils down to
-were the crumbs obvious enough that the cult would have spotted them
and
-if the cult had spotted the crumbs from flea, would they have gone for him or Enchant

[Marky Mark]

Raya's 673 all makes sense but I can't shake the feeling that they are playing around the edges of this game. I need to go back and look over T3's ISO as they haven't been particularly memorable either

[Korina]

Vc after work

[T3]

Can we just ignore Enchant?

[Enchant]

No.

[Raya36]

This is where I stand rn

Flea The Magician - Not CL, too aggressive to be CL, too aggressive to have been culted so still town if they were town to begin with
Enchant - Not CL, was rolestopper, now recruited cult
Marky Mark - Unsure, prob just town? Their read on me felt disingenuous but I'm obviously biased so not reading too much into it
T3 - Cult, maybe CL?
Umlaut - Townread
osuka - Cult, maybe CL?
Dwlee99 - Townread

So I think the cult is Enchant, T3, Osuka and one of T3 and Osuka are the leader

[Marky Mark]

So I'm going with Osuka is clear. I believe Flea and don't think they would've been recruited since they were quite aggressive. I think cult would have gone for someone more townread but less confrontational. (Outside of going for PR Enchant of course)

osuka - Cult, maybe CL?

I'm feeling pretty happy with my Raya vote rn

[Raya36]

Oops completely forgot the Flea thing while making that list. Let me revise

Flea The Magician - Not CL, too aggressive to be CL, too aggressive to have been culted so still town if they were town to begin with, also claimed tracker
Enchant - Not CL, was rolestopper, now recruited cult
Marky Mark - Unsure, prob just

cult

? Their read on me felt disingenuous. I also don't think they truly think I'm cult for forgetting the claim and clear.
T3 - Cult, maybe CL?
Umlaut - Townread
osuka - Cleared by Flea.
Dwlee99 - Townread

So I'm thinking cult is Enchant, Marky (CL?), T3 (CL?)

[Raya36]

I actually feel more confident about Marky now that I've fixed my mistake and narrowed the pool down more.

Look at his attack on me.

I'm scummy for not wanting to put someone at E-1 (who ended up being town) and instead went to my second scumread (who now has a good chance of being CL). I think it's pretty normal to not put people at E-1 when it's nowhere near the end of the countdown anyway.

Said I was scummy for not explicitly stating a scumread on Enchant but instead shading them while having a different progression on T3... who is a different person...
He said a large part of his scumread on me was my position on the Major wagon and my switch from T3 to there but he never looked into why I switched and what put me in that position on the wagon.

My main problem is he called my case on Major a narrative. No part of my case was even close to a narrative. I explained my opinion but obviously gave context to what I was explaining. That feels incredibly disingenuous.

When I explained myself for the Enchant scumread, the Major case, and my switch off of T3 he said my explanation makes sense but then continued to scumread me. I just explained why his entire case on me was wrong and he agreed with me, so why is he still scumreading me?

Then we have the post saying that he's still happy with his vote on me because I forgot about the Flea claim and Osuka clear while making my list. I'm not gonna explain myself there. Just think about it..

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: t3
sure

[Enchant]

VOTE: Raya

[Marky Mark]

Unsure, prob just town? Their read on me felt disingenuous but I'm obviously biased so not reading too much into it

This is like Enchant all over again. You are painting me as scummy to the rest of the plist but avoiding explicitly SRing me at this point in time (you do later, but only after me calling out your inconsistent position on Osuka)

[Marky Mark]

I also don't think they truly think I'm cult for forgetting the claim and clear.

Forgetting it would be one interpretation. Another would be that you either TMIed or forgot about some scum fakeclaim. Lots of potential reasons why scum could get their facts wrong about the scenario

[Marky Mark]

And yes, your case on major does involve an element of analysis, but is largely rehashing arguments that had already been made by other players. There was no real fire there

[Raya36]

Well you were only probably town because I felt better about my pool of 3 I already had so there was no room for you. Now that Osuka isn't in that pool you're my next strongest scumread.