Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[catboi]

I think both implosion and unwnd have bad associatives with catboi, namely the mysterious townreads they kept professing on him

Wasn't implosion agreeing with the scumreads on me?

[catboi]

Somehow I'm only behind a few pages yes I feel like I missed a million years of content.

I'm going to not have time to properly reread until the morning, but in particular I want skitter/implo to reread and solve in the other locations now that they have a confirmed scum from their POV.

Everyone else can do this too by making parallel solves: a scum!skitter and a scum!implo solve. I think that would be helpful.

That's my plan as well, but I think the analysis from them in particular is going to be useful to look back on.

That makes me think scum were forced to do a Gate/Wall swap.

But in this instance, who does that suggest is the team? If the team is unwnd/implo then implo taking the gate is a hard throw, he could have gone to the wall and nobody would have batted an eye

Also, why do you believe I'm somehow a high info flip? You didn't answer me when I asked earlier.

[T3]

Specifically interactions with skitter. If you're scum and we then vote me and win the keep you!scum strongly implies skitter town.

[T3]

So then the gate votes implosion and we win.

[skitter30]

I think both implosion and unwnd have bad associatives with catboi, namely the mysterious townreads they kept professing on him

Wasn't implosion agreeing with the scumreads on me?

Honestly looking thru his iso quite a lot of it is calling me town and agreeing with my assessment of things, but making sure to note the ocassionsl paranoia, so yeah

But r.e. specifically you i thought it eas a lot more pronounced, it seems he only really called you town on like p2 that was what i was remembering
And after that called you scum

[catboi]

- i townread penguin's anger at implo's hammer (dunno why he would be mad that his partner did that as presumably that would be a good outcome for them)

You don't think he would do that to distance?

Maybe that's not how PP operates, but that's the kind of thing I'd expect from a setup where scum can't directly bus.

I do townread PP on the balance, but I think if he's scum then implosion probably is as well. That seems more likely than him blowing up at a townie, especially since if he were with skitter he'd be genuinely upset that skitter couldn't go gate and he wouldn't want to telegraph that.

I thought his posting there was towny as well, but that kind of in the moment thing is fakeable. On body of work though, if he's scum, I'm never getting there.

(strictly speaking, him not hammering does not clear him, as there is actually benefits to delaying the flip and letting town solve in false worlds.

The frustration and AtE on display aren't what I expect from scumwnd, but I don't really want to read too much into that stuff in and of itself because I don't think it's an impossible road for scum to go down, particularly if they're frustrated at the way things are going. (I know, I know, I'm fencesitting so hard)

[catboi]

Specifically interactions with skitter. If you're scum and we then vote me and win the keep you!scum strongly implies skitter town.

1. You think I couldn't distance?

2. I can see me being scum as a high info flip, that's not hard. But you have only considered the premise where I am scum. What about the world where I'm town? I know for a fact that's the one we're living in, and I don't actually see what my flip tells you about anyone's alignment.

[T3]

I haven't seen a scum get angry and scumread their scumpartner in the main thread.
So
catboi!scum = skitter!town = implosion!scum = win.
Honestly idk if you're town.

[T3]

Whatever. I think you're playing tactically and don't actually want to go to the gate, have never wanted to go to the gate, and were hoping someone else would take the gate before you so you would have an excuse. As that hasn't happened, you're entering into this incredibly performative exchange where you balk at the idea because this somehow our scum plot (of course, trying to articulate what that could actually be wouldn't be possible, because nothing makes sense, you fall back on vague notions of it being "suspicious")

NEVER MIND the fact that unwnd was open about wanting to go to the gate with you from the moment he jumped there, I've been largely okay with it for most of this time, SUDDENLY NOW it's a big deal???, Yeah, not buying it! ✾(〜 ☌ω☌)〜✾

Specifically this. I don't think scum can fake a genuine emotional response to a post their scumpartner makes.

[T3]

Specifically interactions with skitter. If you're scum and we then vote me and win the keep you!scum strongly implies skitter town.

1. You think I couldn't distance?

2. I can see me being scum as a high info flip, that's not hard. But you have only considered the premise where I am scum. What about the world where I'm town? I know for a fact that's the one we're living in, and I don't actually see what my flip tells you about anyone's alignment.

Yeah, that's fair.

[catboi]

My general take on things right now in wall: I think it's very, very likely that unwnd is town (so S_S is scum now that Penguin is clear, I was leaning that way somewhat strongly but not surely). If unwnd is scum then almost nothing about yesterday/the swap makes sense; in particular, consider things from scum's point of view. Now that we see no swap from keep, we know that the keep was 1 scum before the swap, meaning that scum were probably trying to avoid 2-1-0. If unwnd is scum, I don't see why skitter plays yesterday the way she did, and I don't really see why they'd make that swap. In that world, if T3 is town then scum would have to be semi-abandoning keep based on catboi's rhetoric, and they'd have to be doing something along the lines of thinking skitter wins the 1v1 vs me and that unwnd wins vs penguin and S_S and it just seems worse than swapping like, T3 with me or ssbm and then confirming him. Or swapping catboi somewhere, or doing something like that.

If unwnd is town then things make pretty simple sense; scum had to swap one of skitter/S_S with one of me/unwnd/ssbm. Basically they get to pick what the 1v1 here will be and who will go to the wall with Penguin. They probably chose to IC ssbm because she was the most widely townread, with the hopes that both me/unwnd get mislimmed. If they thought that they had to win both of those then they were probably afraid to put S_S at gate, so it's a matter of who skitter 1v1s and I could imagine them thinking either way would be easier at that point. If skitter/S_S are scum then their play yesterday makes sense, with skitter angling for gate and S_S taking wall to let her go to gate bc they'd rather have her at gate than him and that would leave them with more flexibility with their swap.

For keep I think the world in which T3 is scum changes things a lot in terms of scum's motivations in the case that unwnd is scum but I also just don't think we're in that world on T3's play.

But, then, logically, why does skitter hesitate on going to the gate, when that would theoretically be their optimum grouping, allowing you to ninja her?

I like the way this is written and yet there's a part of me that's afraid of the confidence you already have in such a narrative.

[catboi]

That reaction would be so utterly trivial to do. Lol. Your confidence is bizarre.

[catboi]

I haven't seen a scum get angry and scumread their scumpartner in the main thread.
So
catboi!scum = skitter!town = implosion!scum = win.
Honestly idk if you're town.

I mean, if you have no idea what it means if I flip town, that doesn't make me a high info flip, does it?

[catboi]

I mean, I'm assuming that PP is conftown. At the very least if he's scum he's already secured the win here and is just slow playing.

So I will vote unwnd, there's just no reason to put him in self hammer range yet.

Didn't you say last game that as scum you wouldn't have immediately hammered at the keep like Briar did?

[catboi]

My gut instinct is that unwnd's reactions to skitter do not feel aligned, as they haven't all game. My memory is distorted but I feel like I had to actively chase him down to respond to my posts in the last game of this, and he feels, on some level, like he is really trying to convince her he is town. If one of them flips scum I would clear the other. That's a very surface-y conclusion but that's what I'm thinking right now.


I don't have the mental energy to commit to a reread right now though. I'll do it tomorrow when I have more time.

[Something_Smart]

Didn't you say last game that as scum you wouldn't have immediately hammered at the keep like Briar did?

I don't specifically remember that, but I believe it. It's why I added the caveat-- PP could be scum, but I think it's pretty unlikely, and if he is he's already won the wall so it's not really my problem.

[T3]

See I feel like I'm hard confbiasing on unwnd.

[PenguinPower]

PP, what do you think about the possibility of unwnd/implosion? Feels like implosion would have just sabotaged his team for no reason.

I am leaning toward skitter being scum because of this. The wall should definitely be resolved before the gate, at least.

I don’t really know what to make of it. SkitteR/implosion both did asinine things (if town) and I have a hard time understanding why. Implosion going gate with unwnd already makes little sense, but so does scum!skitt not hammering gate given like a half a day of intent and being pressured to.

I was lowconf reading unwnd as scum going into today, and I guess that hasn’t really changed, but you were gone most of D1 and I can’t really read you well. Unwnd & skitteR could be scum wifoming ig but that swap in a 1-1-1 doesn’t really make sense…skitteR would have been in the best position at the wall with me and you there because I probably could have been convinced to elim you over her. But, I was pretty angry so maybe she didn’t think that?

I’m rambling.

[PenguinPower]

Look - I like to troll - like I like to troll a lot - but I’m never not taking the W when it’s right there.

[PenguinPower]

Catboi - should I vote unwnd or s_s?

[PenguinPower]

That reaction would be so utterly trivial to do. Lol. Your confidence is bizarre.

I actually agree…

[PenguinPower]

i find the fact that unwnd took gate to be rather scummy honestly

It'd be a very poor move on my part to join gate when Kyouko is scumreading me, on top of me asking you to join Gate as well.

Nice being swapped out though.

[T3]

Dunn has done nothing all game. I would be insane to vote him. communism scummily tried to force his way into keep. I would be insane to vote him.

[PenguinPower]

My gut instinct is that unwnd's reactions to skitter do not feel aligned, as they haven't all game.

I don’t agree atm. Pls explain when you can.

[T3]

WHY DOES EVERYTHING AUTOCORRECT TO COMMUNISM