Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[Something_Smart]

What I gather from this is you think that if unwnd flipped first it would point to scum!implosion? How is that?

More that if implosion flipped first they thought it would point to town-unwnd, because people wouldn't expect implosion to intentionally avoid a 1-1-1.

[PenguinPower]

I think unwnd and S_S should unvote before peng comes online. Just. Because he didnt hammer earlier doesn't mean he wont hammer now that scum is up 1-0. However the fact neither of you unvoted already makes he think peng probably is just town because I find it hard to imagine that 2 townies both didnt have this very same thought.

Pedit: You know if you're town you shouldn't double down on the exact same strat you just used against me and Marci as scum in final 3 S_S

Are you seriously still thinking I can be scum?

[PenguinPower]

blah blah blah reconfirming i'm town blah blah blah

[PenguinPower]

As for my own location, I can make a case on unwnd if PP wants, but I wouldn't really expect it to be particularly good. I did correctly scumread him last time, but I just wasn't involved enough in the game this time.

would be helpful

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think unwnd and S_S should unvote before peng comes online. Just. Because he didnt hammer earlier doesn't mean he wont hammer now that scum is up 1-0. However the fact neither of you unvoted already makes he think peng probably is just town because I find it hard to imagine that 2 townies both didnt have this very same thought.

Pedit: You know if you're town you shouldn't double down on the exact same strat you just used against me and Marci as scum in final 3 S_S

Are you seriously still thinking I can be scum?

Obviously we know you're town now, but think about it.

Gate and Keep were probably the easier places for town to win. As scum at wall, if you got the chance to confirm yourself early by not hammering, and the town at Wall kept their crossvotes going, you could slow play Wall to be the second scum minigame, because if you quickhammers at wall, you do go up a point, but you also reveal that you were scum, and it could trigger reevaluations in Gate and Keep that lead to a 2-1 town victory.

This doesnt matter on a lot of levels though - you've reconfirmed, I'm conftown and stumped, etc. Just wanting to point out that it was a valid strategy for scum to try.

[catboi]

Sigh.

[catboi]

I have regrets.

I feel like implo was trying to nudge me toward a dunn vote when he saw me wavering though. That's my main takeaway.

[catboi]

My typical expectation for scum is that they WIFOM their reads and try to distance with the expectation they'll flip and people will do the opposite of what they say, but I don't know how much to weigh that vs implo trying to put out a perspective he thought was coherent.

My immediate GTH still says unwnd town but i feel less confident about that than I did 24 hours ago.

[unwnd]

I won't make a case on S_S

I know it's unhelpful but that's not the type of game I'm playing right now

I definitely think it's more honed into my sensibilities instead of direct analysis

[T3]

Look. skitter knows my meta pretty well, I've something like 5 games with her. Earlier you all said that skitter is scum with an agenda townreading me. Now skitter is flipped town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My typical expectation for scum is that they WIFOM their reads and try to distance with the expectation they'll flip and people will do the opposite of what they say, but I don't know how much to weigh that vs implo trying to put out a perspective he thought was coherent.

My immediate GTH still says unwnd town but i feel less confident about that than I did 24 hours ago.

I think for this reason we ignore flipped scum's recommendations on who is town/scum at Wall/Keep and focus on the tone of their interactions instead. What looks SvS, what looks TvS, where are they fanning the flames of TvT, etc.

[catboi]

My typical expectation for scum is that they WIFOM their reads and try to distance with the expectation they'll flip and people will do the opposite of what they say, but I don't know how much to weigh that vs implo trying to put out a perspective he thought was coherent.

My immediate GTH still says unwnd town but i feel less confident about that than I did 24 hours ago.

I think for this reason we ignore flipped scum's recommendations on who is town/scum at Wall/Keep and focus on the tone of their interactions instead. What looks SvS, what looks TvS, where are they fanning the flames of TvT, etc.

I know, I agree in principle, but I largely felt like implo was confident on Dunn being scum when I had entered the day saying me voting T3 was a foregone conclusion, but when I was visibly wavering and hesitate he started to try to incline me toward voting Dunnstral. It felt manipulative. On that and the strength of skitter's read on T3, I feel like it's better to go with how I felt about things day 1, rather than overthinking my process here. I thought implosion's jump to the gate was nonsensical and scummy but leveled myself into doubting it. I don't want to do the same again.

The fact that I asked for Dunn to act on his apparent trust of me and got crickets in response made me feel the offer was hollow.

[catboi]

unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

Congrats. You are scum who has pulled reads out of your ass.

Sup nerds VOTE: Gate
Pile onto gate now

I orginally thought this was scummy, but then I thought it was towny, now I realize this is NAI

This post is pretty "hello world, I have an internal thought process! Guess I can't be scum!"

I say that, then go back and

immediately

doubt myself because I remember this interaction

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Catboi

[catboi]

Well, there it is. I'm town.

[catboi]

That was a big ass-saver because I was probably going to screw it up.

[catboi]

I was actually going to type a post where I was second-guessing myself again. Now I'm going to reread T3 on the assumption he is scum. But my feeling is the game has largely consisted of the townies getting into skirmishes with each other while the scum mostly stick to the sidelines, which would still point to something_smart as scum. But I'll do a brief reading with that in mind.

[catboi]

Right now I would put T3 at the Keep as a preemptive take

I'm not sure whether that's supposed to be a townread or a scumread.

kyo's plan is towny. unwnd is towny for the whole thing about plotting. implosion is probably scum for the faking reads and then saying giving scum info is good.

What if me, unwnd, and Aurelia's next top townread go to the keep?

This feels less aligned for how he'd treat a partner early. He does move into scumreading unwnd as the game progresses as well, although it doesn't feel quite as forced as his implosion read. I need to check to see how unwnd responded to him.

[catboi]

This is the exact kind of wall scumwnd makes.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

I am a very spiteful town player and will do things just to prove a point.

When T3/Kyouko both started to engage the thread as if I were scum for basically unilateral reasons it caused an uptick. T3 has no fucking idea how I play scum and certainly Kyouko doesn't.

Ooofff.

[catboi]

Not sure what to make of SS. His posts haven't pinged me either way.

Shocking.

Anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on?

implosion.

Skimmed through his ISO a few times, nothing really stood out much. It's somewhat towny that he went completely back on his early townreads, and his mechanics takes seem mostly solid, but I wouldn't expect any of that to be far out of his scumrange.

oh MAN

[catboi]

That was very unhelpful, I'm sorry. I don't think unwnd's venom toward T3 is out of his range but their early interactions feel like they would be bold to come from scum. That line from T3 asking s_s about implosion specifically feels...very forced. I doing so I re-skimmed something_smart's iso and he'd still probably be my vote there if I had hammer, but I would feel very unconfident about it and would probably close the tab and run away immediately after doing so, and not check bak until hours later.

kyouko, penguin: Is there anything in particular you want to ask me as newly confirmed town before I get us the confirmation of the flip?

[unwnd]

I'm just glad you and Dunn were town

Still kicking myself about Skitter

[catboi]

Yeah I regret that one too. Lot of ego getting in the way there in spite of me actively recognizing it as a problem.

[unwnd]

I wouldn't say it was ego more like I decided to follow the rabble going on at the time

I think we're in a good position though, now I just have to convince Penguin

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE: catboi

So we can solve the other group before we are hammered