Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!


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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:51 am

Post by cyrus62 »

Shakes head .@save the dragons did you not see what I said I'm scum this time. I full heartedly belive pav is town despite him not wanting to work with me to help me find town the rest on my list is mostly long shots I may add save the dragon. But I won't add ssbm . I may remove nathann and add my self as well. No one seems to be wanting to show faith. I'm very very ticked off I wanted to be able to win in day 1 so I had barging rights.
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:33 am

Post by Pavowski »

In post 224, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 218, Pavowski wrote:Yet
Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.
Spoiler:
Man, what a game that was. Think we killed seven or eight people in under 12 hours. Poor Pooky couldn't keep up with the kills and elims and had to give up doing the flavor (which was delicious)
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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:40 am

Post by Pavowski »

In post 205, Enchant wrote:i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia
We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:44 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

how is that a townslip
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:01 pm

Post by Pavowski »

Seems like a mistake town would make if taking a pessimistic view. Not 100% sure it's a townslip tho and not just a derp slip, hence the hmm
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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:02 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

i'm having trouble seeing how town would make that mistake over someone independent of alignment
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:06 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

not sure if i'm just paranoid but HURT: pav i need a moment
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:20 pm

Post by Farren »

See post .
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:23 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie
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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:25 pm

Post by Farren »

In post 227, Pavowski wrote:
In post 205, Enchant wrote:i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia
We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.
That's either NAI or scumslip, I'd say.

Thinking "5 of 7" as opposed to "4 of 6" ... if you're Town, you don't have to figure yourself out. But if you're phrasing it from a strictly neutral POV - from the whole of the Town - who can't clear any individual within it - then 5 of 7 works. Given the wording, I'd lean towards the neutral.

Adding the "2 of" part ... yeah, that doesn't tell me anything.
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:36 pm

Post by Farren »

In post 233, Save The Dragons wrote:seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie
Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.

The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:49 pm

Post by cyrus62 »

the best part is when im town i get scum read. but when i am town read no matter how many times i say im scum it doesnt draw any votes.
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:56 pm

Post by redtea »

In post 208, Farren wrote:
In post 202, Hakai wrote:@mod I never healed Farren
That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.
Highlighting this to make sure Hakai sees it.
*Old account here
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:06 pm

Post by Pavowski »

Yeeaaaahhhh, I'm gonna take the leap. HEAL: Cyrus

That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself

And my "not convinced they're town pile" as
Enchant
Farren
Nathann
Kyouko

I think I feel ... okay about that.
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:13 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 238, Pavowski wrote:That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself
talk to me about yessiree and hakai
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:16 pm

Post by Hakai »

In post 194, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 189, cyrus62 wrote:Won't heal ebbs only person to ask to be in the five like 3 post why should we trust your town.
Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.
And if you're scum then the coalition fails.
In post 195, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 193, Pavowski wrote:
In post 191, Save The Dragons wrote:something about ssbm's posts bother me
Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.

The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.

Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.
Implying I will feel town later?
VOTE: kyo
This is literally shading someone over their choice of words.
In post 196, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Also I'm pondering hakai's comment on Cyrus scumrange. Going to check back to owner's market blitz. It had a similar town-finding mechanic where players elected a market owner as well as voted for an elim on D1.
Slightly +town for this observation.
In post 200, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
While this is a valid mech observation it also relies on you being town.
In post 208, Farren wrote:
In post 202, Hakai wrote:@mod I never healed Farren
That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.
Oops.
In post 214, Farren wrote:HURT: Hakai
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko
Why?
In post 224, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 218, Pavowski wrote:Yet
Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.
This observation seems more likely to come from town.
VOTE: Nathann/v]
In post 235, Farren wrote:
In post 233, Save The Dragons wrote:seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie
Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.

The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.
It's not a lie, I've played many games with her. The only problem is that scum Kyo doesn't really get scumread unless you know her meta.
Thinking about it, I actually have a lot of experience with everyone in this playerlist except yessiree and Farren.
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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:23 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 240, Hakai wrote:VOTE: Nathann/v]
what's up with this
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:24 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

VOTE: kyouko
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:25 pm

Post by Hakai »

Typo.
VOTE: nathann
pedit: VOTE: kyo
I can also do this. I scumread Nathann slightly more but this wagon has more traction.
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:26 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

no i mean why did you vote nathann
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:29 pm

Post by Hakai »

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.
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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:31 pm

Post by Save The Dragons »

nathann who's on your ideal coalition
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:33 pm

Post by Pavowski »

In post 239, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 238, Pavowski wrote:That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself
talk to me about yessiree and hakai
Sure thing, man.

Vibes on yessirree, but that's my weakest of the 5 I think.

Hakai is townreading Cyrus way harder than I think he's earned, which is either very genuine or big scum equity. I don't think there's actually scum equity there, though, so...
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:40 pm

Post by cyrus62 »

I might remove nathann and add ssbm but if the 5 fail I will death tunnel her.
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:47 pm

Post by Farren »

In post 245, Hakai wrote:Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.
The only two posts I see that you could be referring to are (the one with the self-hurt) and (answering why when someone asked). Neither of those look to me like they're deliberately trying to call attention to themselves. The former - "because cyrus asked me to" - I could see as a possible attempt to gain townreads, although given the follow-up questions he asked, I don't think that was his motive.
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