so, reflecting on yesterday -- i shouldve been the miselim (dw, im going somewhere with this, it isnt just pointless pessimism). i had significantly fewer posts which were on average way worse and significantly less transparent (hence, why puppy is still pestering me for reads, dw pup im on it) than todoroki's.
so, going from there: i think a todoroki miselim, from a maf perspective, seemed disproportionately beneficial. maf probably extrapolated from my d1 play that i'll remain the miselim all the way to yeelo if need be; contrast todoroki, i dont think there was any guarantee that innocentvillager would continue to be townread over toki into lategame. unfortunately, this is only true from my "i know i am town" perspective, which i cant prove to anyone else. i wouldnt need to prove it if my claim was just "maf was on the miselim wagon", but im actually making a stronger claim: that the wagon was maf-driven (i.e., that prism(!) is mafia). it's significant to me that both todoroki heads had suspicions on prism at different points in the game (and sure, they were also sus on me, but i think they probably read prism better than they read me; dwlee, eh, idk yet, i keep forgetting theyre in the game). this would also explain the kinda half-hearted reach-out that baffled todoroki so much; if youre driving a miselim for specific tactical reasons, you probably dont want to look too enthusiastic about it.
i also think prism's kinda stealthily flipped on his relatively strong mechanical convictions. while he never outright said "we must very definitely eliminate small", he scumread me for claiming the contrary (tangent: "i absolutely think she should know better", why? have i given any indication that my theoretical-mechanical play is particularly strong? i really do appreciate the show of confidence, but i dont get why you would believe this) and voted exclusively within the three-group (but never innocentvillager!). he's a lot softer on this at the start of today, it's not a hard-180, but it still doesnt look natural to me.
the obvious point of contention here is that... innocentvillager wasnt on todoroki, he was on me. i dont think these are contradictory observations, i dont think "maf!prism drove the todoroki wagon to line me up as a miselim at pretty much any arbitrary point in future" is incompatible with "maf!innocentvillager didnt vote todoroki". the other possible objection is "but inno isnt trying to miselim you later, he's gunning for you right now". sure, but i dont think inno believes the small-group elimination is guaranteed today; "innocent wants me eliminated now, but is reasonably confident i'll still be available as a miselim later" is a coherent view for him to hold. it's even possible that he doesnt particularly want me eliminated right now, and is expecting prism to continue softening on the six-group and nudge the town in that direction.
inno/prism also makes sense as a scumteam, although pretty much anyone/inno or anyone/prism could make sense as a scumteam, so this isnt super relevant overall.
i also want to point out that "toki miselim disproportionately benefits maf" makes std look way worse than dwlee. todoroki seemed to think that both std and prism should read them pretty accurately, so even if we ignore my "maf-driven" theory, their presence on the wagon is a lot more suspicious than mine and dwlee's.
it's difficult to rank prism/dwlee/std as scumreads, because theyre all scummy in very different ways (and, literally cant be scum together). prism's individual posts ping super towny, it's only when you view them at this macro level (and, under the assumption that im town) that a maf strategy emerges. std's for the most part pretty nai, it's one specific incident (the hammer and surrounding comments) that look bad, but it looks really bad. dwlee's posts are frustratingly inane, like, he's contributed even less than i have imo, especially when you omit theory. theyre very apples-oranges-bananas scumreads.
laying these thoughts out, i get where puppy's coming from with his start-of-day comments and they look a lot townier to me now. the six-group (uh, five-group) is pretty difficult to disentangle rn and associations across the two groups really would help. both innocentvillager and myself could be buddied with literally any of these people.
@Esther I am noting a distinct lack of Dunnstral opinion.
Ur opinion of STD and dwlee noted.
I like ur opinion onf Prism even though i think its very very wrong.
r u doing analysis on the end of game wagon? it seems like u are doing that.
Cause if ur saying its innocentvillager, ur saying the elim on Todoraki massively enabled scum here. But ur giving of std/dwlee/prism I am thinking ur saying it has to be one of the people voting Todoraki is that a coincidence or is that end game wagon going into that
ive been pretty solid on dunnstral town all game, and while that's weakened a little (his lines of enquiry are all pretty obvious, and also you can only lurk so much before i start questioning the townread), he's probably my strongest townread, followed closely by puppy (i think im done going back-and-forth on puppy, lmao we'll see). usually youre meant to poe-read scum, not town lol, but yeah, dunn's the only person in this game where im going "i just dont have the reasons to fos you that i have on other players"
overall, i dont think a lack of content is actually alignment-indicative for dwlee, though this isnt actually the extent of the scumread on them. other people have picked out inconsistencies and generally odd views in their posts, but imo theyre town over std and i guess by extention over prism. i do not care to rank std/prism right now, again, apples-oranges; and also, i really do think inno should be the elim today.
p-edit, i'll parse those out and comment if this doesnt answer, i started typing this out before you asked
when i say "std/prism scum over dwlee", yeah, that's a look at the end-of-day wagon. when i outline the way in which prism pushing the todoroki wagon super hard is massively beneficial to mafia, no, i dont really care about the rest of the wagon when making that point (beyond the fact that, the wagon happened).
these comments largely ignore innocentvillager, except where i explain that inno's refusal to vote todoroki doesnt contradict the view that maf probably really wanted that elim.
it bothers me that scum is very likely in dwlee/std and that the town in that group is just fine with sliding by the other.
and if its neither they letting dunnstral/prism free reign
yeahhhhh im tentatively on dwlee town (and, lmao, less town on puppy again, idk i just feel like theyre trying to pocket me, although the obvious counterpoint is that it probably doesnt make much sense to pocket me). town dunn, null-town puppy/dwlee, maf std/prism.
yeah, prism's softening on the six-group makes a ton of sense if you assume that maf!prism knows (and, lmao, he would know, he's easily the most analytical player here) that an elim within the three-group skyrockets dunnstral's and puppy's towniness. i dont really see how else you explain his move from "sus on me for shifting to six-group, and voting exclusively within the three-group" to "idk maybe six is okay".
In post 693, mc esther wrote:yeahhhhh im tentatively on dwlee town (and, lmao, less town on puppy again, idk i just feel like theyre trying to pocket me, although the obvious counterpoint is that it probably doesnt make much sense to pocket me). town dunn, null-town puppy/dwlee, maf std/prism.
im just trying to get u to talk more because it helps me solve.
u would know for sure if im trying to pocket u, i would be extremely nice for no other reason
also im still heavily leaning u for scum.
If i wanted to pocket u, i would be calling u town here.
i don't know where i could be trying to pocket u besides me trying to have an open dialogue with u.
I am not treating u as ur town. I am playing with possibility ur town. Which is diff than how I think u treated todoraki yesterday
shouldnt you lim within three-group then? like, isnt dunn very definitely my partner from your perspective? im not trying to poke holes in your theory or anything, im 100% done back-and-forthing on you, youre locktown. it's just that you kinda got stuck tunnelling six-group imo and while that was actually kinda useful in a round-about way (it definitely did expand the discussion to a broader scope than it otherwise wouldve been), it was always incorrect and i think it's largely lost its utility at this point even from your own argument.
