Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[MegAzumarill]

scum!Meg is the kind of person to do blatantly scummy things then try to talk their way out of it, surprisingly usually live longer than my town play

[morph the cat]

To a degree, it kind of has. I didn't feel it to be that worth mentioning, especially since Amazonian expressed similar thoughts at some point, but I feel like ffery was very much a force to be reckoned with in that game. Even when she was constantly being pushed as scum seven ways from sunday, she was still constantly giving out her thoughts in the hope that it could help town after the mis-elim. Granted, that was a very different situation to this game, but I haven't been feeling that same energy.

It

is

a different situation. I'm having a really hard time reconciling your play here with your day 1 replacement play in the newbie game. I can see having a slower start just due to being in the game from the start and not having anything to work with initially outside of what you can spin up from rvs.

[implosion]

Right now my inclination is to scum-case GL. I don't know if I actually think he's scummy but I kind of want to ISO him while biasing myself toward thinking that he's scum, and see what i come up with. I also want to dig more into Ydrasse at some point today, ideally once the sickness leaves her alone.

[Shirou]

[MegAzumarill]

Shirou do you find me and Tejate linked as S/T or do you just scumread us independantly

[Shirou]

Shirou do you find me and Tejate linked as S/T or do you just scumread us independantly

independently

why do you ask though?

[MegAzumarill]

It's a very different kind of read and I wanted to know which

[Cephrir]

Top of my head not super interested in a tecate wagon but I should probably like try

[morph the cat]

both of us will be fairly scarce today.

[numberQ]

I copped Ceph and got an inno result.

So far I've mostly skimmed today's content, enough to see that AL protected fua. I also started ISOing imaginality over the night to try and see how others interacted with him. (Better late than never on that ISO I promised D1 I guess lol) My thoughts are a little nebulous for now, and I'm trying to factor town!Ceph into them as well, but I feel as though GL approached the imaginality wagon strangely.

He started out wanting to lim redtea, then came around on scum!imaginality, citing implosion and Shirou as convincing him. He provided lots of commentary on the evolving read, giving exact reasons every step as to why he can see what others are saying, but there were always just one or two towntells keeping him from voting. Then finally it was imaginality's bargaining with me that pushed GL over the edge to vote.

Overall, I got this sense that he was carefully charting the trajectory of his read, knowing that imaginality was town. It never struck me as though GL was actually uncertain, it was always more like seeking out reasons to slowly shift into a scumread.

In my skim of D2 so far I did see implosion saying some similar things, if I'm not mistaken. Didn't have a ton of time to read that too deeply though, since I'm like 5 minutes late to something as is.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

I was dead wrong on my Ceph read so that's shaken my confidence a little, but fuck it the day just began and I feel like voting

[Amazonian Legends]

By my count that's everyone checked in and likely town-us, fua, numberQ, and Cephrir barring shenanigans.

Not around much today, but with all that in mind, I owe this game a reread-slog. Aiming for this weekend.

--PA

[morph the cat]

I copped Ceph and got an inno result

Oh damn it spay is gonna be so smug with her ceph whisperer ways.

[implosion]

That's useful.

VOTE: GuiltyLion for now. I'll ISO him today/soon.

nQ is basically saying a more elaborated version of what I was. Yesterday in general I think GL maybe felt too agreeable - like his reads list in 892 is going to ruffle basically no feathers from active players. Ceph's comment of it basically being the player list sorted by charisma is poignant.

[morph the cat]

I copped Ceph and got an inno result

Oh damn it spay is gonna be so smug with her ceph whisperer ways.

I'm not the ceph whisperer. I put him in PA's hands yesterday, so she gets to be smug!

[morph the cat]

I copped Ceph and got an inno result

Oh damn it spay is gonna be so smug with her ceph whisperer ways.

I'm not the ceph whisperer. I put him in PA's hands yesterday, so she gets to be smug!

Vice whisperer given you town read him independently before the end of day one at least.

[Cephrir]

oh dang now i *really* have to try.

i am not used to being in this position!

[morph the cat]

If we take all current claims at face value (and I'm inclined to do so) then we've got a pool of 8, including my own slot, with three scum in those eight.

Megs (Formerly NSG)
Ydra
implosion
redtea
morph the cat (Cabd & fferyllt)
Tejate Raichu
GuiltyLion
Shirou

I'm gonna let Amazonians town case us whenever they get around to it, so worrying about the other 7....

Shirou sort of floats to the top of our town pool within this subset, not inclined there unless we're missing something.

So we'll be concentrating on the other six:

Megs (Formerly NSG)
Ydra
implosion
redtea
Tejate Raichu
GuiltyLion

[Cephrir]

yeah maybe i should just iso some players of interest. or something.

[Ydrasse]

i dont think my will to play mafia at all is coming back anytime soon. just like my sense of taste

[implosion]

Spoiler: Intentionally biased GL iso, part 1

also morph when have you (collectively) ever liked my early game posts

last time we played in that Dedede fusion game I remember us arguing for the vast majority of it, D1 for sure at least

it's prob gonna be the same thing again here

double-triple-super-bias: this feels like it could be scum->scum.

aaaaahhh Fumuki eh, if you are scum you definitely shouldn't have told me that

This is a little bit of an odd reaction given nsg said she'd be able to tell who Shirou is before Shirou said who he was. I searched for mentions of Shirou in his ISO and it's pretty much entirely being entirely convinced that Shirou is town. This is a little bit incongruous with this post in my mind because other people have been describing Shirou as having a very strong scumgame, which GL should know if he's town, and so in principle he should be slow to townread Shirou, but he isn't. Sure that might not be how GL's thinking about the slot but I don't really get the sense that GL was ever using meta to read Shirou which this post from him implies he should be doing. Which makes this post feel performative.

The interaction between Tejate and Ceph from 238 on is pinging me. 238 itself does strike me as a lot of nothing that

could

be scum indicative. Ceph calling him out on it though, for some reason I didn't like it even though I generally agreed with the sentiment. And overall I feel like Tejate is coming out of that back and forth looking towny, and Ceph null-scum.

This was my impression too. Ceph is giving me major "SE pushing on a mislimmable Newbie in the Newbie Queue" vibes

I townread Tejate

so 238 essentially just says "hey look everyone i have handwritten notes" since there is no actual reason for it to exist.

this post in particular

I could definitely imagine it being town in Ceph's spot trying to pressure a questionable slot, but it's just ever so slightly too aggressive for me. like I can see where Ceph is coming from calling out that the "notes" comment is a bit LAMISTy, but it's not too hard for me to imagine a town!Tejate writing the post and thinking it might be useful, he feels genuine to me

actually though I am thinking fua's jump in is worse than Ceph's push

I townread Tejate, but I can imagine Ceph being town misfiring on him. I think if that was a T-T spat, fua's play vibes like scum looking for a distraction outside the scrutiny their own slot is receiving, and leveraging Tejate/Ceph to do it

VOTE: fua

implosion and nQ get major towncred for mindmelds

and I kinda townread Ydrasse so far too

[/quote]
A few comments on this sequence of 4 posts.

First, the suspicion toward Ceph feels very only-poke-the-warthog-from-a-distance. Like he doesn't want to incur wrath too badly. Specifically the couched language in 310 - "ever so slightly too aggressive" and "can see where he's coming from" but still wants to explore the scumread. Compare, say, even the way that nsg talked about the Shirou slot - it did not feel like she was trying to stay on his good side even though she wasn't really calling him scum when she gave her tirade of "can we please not all locktown shirou".

Second, the reasoning given for the fua vote in 311 is awkward; he thinks Ceph is scummy but can imagine him being town misfiring. But

if

he's town misfiring then fua looks bad. It's like, "I have this scumread. But if I'm wrong on it then this other player is scummy, so vote: other player". And this the first mention of fua in his ISO. Further, at this point Ceph has 2 votes on him and fua has 0. I feel like town-GL votes Ceph here - it's a wagon, he's suspicious of him, it could help sort. But scum-GL is afraid of being the third vote on the wagon of a strong town player who is often (at least iirc) pretty skeptical of pressure on him. And so instead he decides to come up with some reason to not have to join that wagon, and vanity votes fua who, at this point in the game, is not widely townread.

Third, the last post just feels, idk, like it fits this pattern of trying to get on people's good sides/stay off people's bad sides. Just the phrasing of "major towncred for mindmelds". More minor than the other things.

actually though I am thinking fua's jump in is worse than Ceph's push

I townread Tejate, but I can imagine Ceph being town misfiring on him. I think if that was a T-T spat, fua's play vibes like scum looking for a distraction outside the scrutiny their own slot is receiving, and leveraging Tejate/Ceph to do it

VOTE: fua

Yes, I want a distraction from my own slot, so instead of enlisting my buddies to do something or waiting my turn, I just hop in balls-out into a pre-existing feud right after people express suspicion of me, because I'm eager to get away from the pressure of zero votes. You have solved the case very early into day 1. I'm not sure what you think my level of experience is or how well-versed I am in how to play this game, but this isn't it chief.

this post is not a good look, my vote stays

you feel extremely defensive, leans on sarcasm extra thick to try to imply that voting/scumreading you is dumb, and is the implication here supposed to be that scum you would never hop into any feud? How else would scum find things to push on or reasons to scumread people?

Where did the "solved the case" nonsense come from? Did my post give you the impression I felt I had "already solved"? Why?

This is just a bit strong of a response imo. The way the post is written kind of feels like he decided that his opinion of the post was that it's scummy, and then came up with a reason for each part of it to be scummy, when really a lot of it is just harping on sarcasm.

What do you make of Tejate’s point that people are trying to tie him and Ceph together? Because you certainly pushed that note when you voted for me. Why can’t you be trying to pocket Tejate by going against popular opinion and TRing him?

I do think anyone claiming to tie Cephrir and Tejate together would be making a mistake, yeah.

You're not wrong that I made some assumptions and suggested a narrative. I don't have any hard data so I offered a hypothetical that made sense to me and pushed it to see what would happen

I'm not trying to pocket to Tejate cause I'm town, but it's certainly not unreasonable for someone to suspect me of doing that, and if that's what you believe you should argue for it

I don't really understand why town chooses to "make some assumptions and suggest a narrative" (assuming this is referring to the thing about fua-maybe-scum-if-ceph-and-tejate-town). Again, the more productive thing for GL-town to do in that situation seems to be to vote Ceph, a player who he was calling scummy and who already had two votes on him. He later says he likes big wagons. This whole thing just makes it seem like he was lying about the Ceph scumread. I don't see any reason for GL-town to do this weird, circuitous "suggesting a narrative" thing instead of just voting the person who he just called scum and who has votes on him already.

[implosion]

In the same post you say that Ceph is misguided in his targeting of Tejate and simultaneously saying that I’m leveraging the two of them to escape pressure. How is it wrong to categorize this as tying them together and why do you say that I was trying to start dueling wagons with a single naked vote? You still haven’t addressed my point that my SR of Ceph was completely unrelated to the Tejate interaction and that I responded to him because I was being explicitly mentioned and misrepresented.

dude are you understanding the conditional/hypothetical nature of that post or not

I said "I can

IMAGINE

Ceph being town misfiring on him"

because I had just said I was pinged a bit by Ceph's aggression, but then I thought about it more, thinking about how the last time I saw Ceph as scum he was laid back and not this aggressive, and thought "you know it's totally possible Ceph is just wrongTown here"

and then I said, "suppose Tejate/Ceph is T-T, what would scum!fua do", and I thought finding a reason to vote Ceph would be a perfectly logical play from you there, so I wanted to pressure you on it

none of this is me asserting like 'yeah, definitely this is

exactly

what's happening', it's me thinking about a possible framework for the game and trying to fit it onto you and see what you do.

I know you have ~ reasons ~ for SRing Ceph, but frankly I think it's easy to fake a reason to scumread Ceph, that doesn't matter as much to me right now. I can imagine town!you or scum!you having that reason to vote him.

This post needs to be addressed now given what I just wrote:

I'm skeptical about him having been pinged by Ceph's aggression, then having thought about it more and thinking about Ceph being laid back last time he played with him, and going through this whole line of thought and this hypothetical and deciding that this was the best use of his vote. I'm skeptical because the time between GL's "ceph gives SE-scum pushing a newbie vibes" post and his voting fua instead, was 7 minutes. This post also feels like GL trying to retcon his read on Ceph - at no point in the actual exchange did he mention having changed his mind because he was thinking about Ceph meta. In fact the opposite, he voted fua because he described fua as "worse" - implying he still thought Ceph was scummy for that push, rather than, as he's implying here, townie for playing differently from his scum meta. So that's somewhat inconsistent.

[GuiltyLion]

So far I've mostly skimmed today's content, enough to see that AL protected fua. I also started ISOing imaginality over the night to try and see how others interacted with him. (Better late than never on that ISO I promised D1 I guess lol) My thoughts are a little nebulous for now, and I'm trying to factor town!Ceph into them as well, but I feel as though GL approached the imaginality wagon strangely.

He started out wanting to lim redtea, then came around on scum!imaginality, citing implosion and Shirou as convincing him. He provided lots of commentary on the evolving read, giving exact reasons every step as to why he can see what others are saying, but there were always just one or two towntells keeping him from voting. Then finally it was imaginality's bargaining with me that pushed GL over the edge to vote.

Overall, I got this sense that he was carefully charting the trajectory of his read, knowing that imaginality was town. It never struck me as though GL was actually uncertain, it was always more like seeking out reasons to slowly shift into a scumread.

um

can you explain why you don't think I was uncertain? I was pushing redtea over imaginality for most of the day and no one took me up on it and Shirou (who I townread) was pushing against it. I finally just gave up and went with the weaker scumread

I don't really know what you are looking for from town waffling between the two major wagons that isn't in my ISO

[Cephrir]

i have to admit to finding this somewhat compelling at the moment. but i don't want to be complacent and watch all the work get done for me. even though i'm only not working on this at this very moment on account of not really feeling like it.

[GuiltyLion]

This is a little bit of an odd reaction given nsg said she'd be able to tell who Shirou is before Shirou said who he was. I searched for mentions of Shirou in his ISO and it's pretty much entirely being entirely convinced that Shirou is town. This is a little bit incongruous with this post in my mind because other people have been describing Shirou as having a very strong scumgame, which GL should know if he's town, and so in principle he should be slow to townread Shirou, but he isn't. Sure that might not be how GL's thinking about the slot but I don't really get the sense that GL was ever using meta to read Shirou which this post from him implies he should be doing. Which makes this post feel performative.

implosion are you scum?

I only played one game with Fumuki where I caught him early and town stomped the scumteam, which was what prompted that comment. and I explicitly already referenced this

that post you quoted, that was mostly a small joke to see if you'd react at all, the last game I remember playing with you you were scum and I feel like I remember tunneling you correctly when you were the last scum alive at like 7p or 5p. I think if this here is your scum game it's taken a giant leap, but I haven't played with you in years so I wouldn't say I have an up to date understanding of how you play scum and what you're capable of

it was not my opinion that Fumuki had a strong scum game until NSG said so

[GuiltyLion]

eh I mean I thought it was a fair word of advice to be cautious, I had no idea you were nommed for a Don Corleone and I had previously thought you were kind of an easier to read player, so it made me want to re-evaluate on why I townread you but I hadn't, haven't, actually bothered to do that yet. I do still generally believe the reasons I have for townreading you, but probably I just shouldn't weight them quite as heavily