Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[redtea]

disappointed day 1 ended while the replacement was still active

[implosion]

i'm sorry that you're disappointed.

[redtea]

v.v

[implosion]

so while you're here, how are you feeling about this game and the people in it?

[implosion]

Important things you may have missed that you should take note of are claims by Amazons and numberQ.

[morph the cat]

Came back to check before I head out. My issue with morph that brought me to a null-scum is their lack of posts I like rather than posts I didn't. I feel like at the very least I'd have seen more from ffery. I can't think of any specific posts that scumping me on such short notice, but the main reason I have almost no confidence in this slot at the moment is because the most townie post (in my opinion) that I've looked at was less like a loud ping and more like someone whispering the word "town" from another room.

I forgot to mention in that particular post, but I actually left Shirou out intentionally. I want to think a bit on their slot in particular, and I wanted to express those thoughts in a separate post. My bad for not mentioning it.

I feel similarly about you. You were a relative ball of fire in the newbie game and really efforted there. I was townreading you almost immediately after you replaced in.

Here, you've been passive and it feels like you're just sitting back waiting for the game to come to you rather than digging your teeth in.

But, I don't know if I should be expectation-setting based on that newbie game, so I'm trying to kind of level it off a little. If I don't look for that kind of effort and energy and townpost after townpost after townpost, then what do I have left?

A lot of posts that don't do much for me, and quite a few posts that actively ping.

[numberQ]

The implo/GL interaction ended on a weird, abrupt note from both parties.

anyway uh

that was a strong reaction and a lot of posts and I don't want to like, turn this into a full on 1v1 that might make my points less salient

so I'm gonna take a thread break

Didn't seem like that strong a reaction to me, unless you just mean posting a lot in a row. And why would a 1v1 make your points less salient?

And I do want to emphasize that for the crowd that I don't immediately know how much my "case" convinces me myself because, like I said, I was specifically trying to look for scum motivation in things. I'm hoping that it + looking at GL's reaction will help sort him better but I don't really have a strong opinion on his reaction so far.

There are two reasons that I decided to do this for GL in particular: one, as mentioned, I think I need to come up with some novel way to read him. Two, I have a sort of vague wishy-washy gamestate feeling that he makes sense as scum. Basically exactly the paranoia that I described him as lacking: I feel like the sort of status quo of reads is not good enough with imaginality flipping town. The nQ claim alleviates that feeling a fair amount but it's still there.

How do you not have an opinion on GL after multiple wall cases? Even if you're waiting for more of a reaction, I struggle to see how you can dive into someone's ISO that much and come out the other end with nothing.

[implosion]

It's not that I don't have an opinion, on the whole I think he's a pretty good candidate for scum. I don't know

how much

I'm convinced i.e. I know I was trying to bias myself and so obviously I need to undo that process/account for it. I think I've laid the groundwork for the kind of interaction between us that I'll need to continue sorting him and part of it is also just that I want to sit on his immediate reaction for a bit.

If I have a reads list right now, it's something like this:

Town: Ceph, Amazons, fua
Also town: nQ
Town, I think: Shirou, tejate raichu, redtea, and ugh I don't actually feel good about literally anyone in this tier really all for different reasons, when I really try to look inside myself. I have a lot of work to do. Honestly maybe the person here I feel best about is redtea????
Conflicted/haven't put in enough work to feel good about saying anything yet: Meg, Ydrasse
Scummy: morph, GL

To

explain some of

briefly elaborate on all of these:

I vibe with whoever (i think tejate) was saying they just haven't seen as much townish from morph as they expect. I've described that and also some specific maybe-scummy things from morph and I could honestly imagine this read potentially 180ing under certain conditions (nothing specific, but generally I could imagine it happening). One specific thing I guess that could partially 180 it is if Amazons has a towncase on them that is more than just something vague (though iirc they hadn't really fully committed to morph-town as a read though they were leaning that way? i could be wrong). For now I think they're one of the best candidates for scum.

GL like I said just kind of makes sense to me as an active slot that could be scum. The people he's wound up pushing and the things he's wound up doing are just not really as aggressive or, like, interesting as I think I should be seeing from him-town.

Meg I have a lingering very weak gut townread on nsg and I don't know how to read any of Meg's play so far.

Ydrasse like I've said I need to dive more into but she's absent from the game essentially so the read's basically on hold until later. Her clarifying an n2 doctor claim is, in terms of her alignment, null imo.

Shirou like I said is literally just playing this game with the sole intent of pocketing me if he's scum, but if so then at some point it worked because I just vibe with his views on the game most of the time.

tejate I still don't really see ill intent in his posting in general. I need to review a case against him if anyone who's been pushing him has like, done anything resembling casework or just if anyone has what they think are solid reasons to scumread him. But until/unless someone else convinces me I still feel like townish is the right category for him.

redtea is a lingering of me thinking their approach to the game is more sensible as detached town than detached scum. Like look at this page, I just don't think detached scum would typically have this little care about how they're perceived.

nQ claiming n1 cop is +townpoints though it doesn't confirm him as town; I described why I'd thought he was town before the claim yesterday.

[fua]

I think nQ copping Ceph at least makes sense and tracks with his thought process, but I agree with Implosion's statement that it doesn't make him confirmed. It technically doesn't confirm Ceph either since it could just be a ballsy play by mafia, but still.

[Shirou]

How could you possibly be that confident that fua would be an impossible wagon? The argument you're referencing started on page 12.

???

where did he say it was an "impossible" wagon in the last posts?

[Shirou]

1) No. I would actually be happy to flip them, rather than the null spot where I'm still mulling them over. But that seems quite unlikely to happen today.

what the hell...

like, this just doesn't feel like something town!Tejate would say compared to the completed newbie.

Rather than

wait

people think that Morph is scummy by their own, I feel you would be more interested in engaging Morph by yourself and trying to convince other people of your opinion if you began feeling confident on it after engaging Morph.

It feels so

bizarre

that you're playing this "supporting character" role, always trying to respect and follow consensus, always hesitant to put things forward yourself and rather almost always waiting for other people's leads on stuff.

I feel it's so weird compared to what I saw from you in the newbie that "you must be scum" echoes in my head , but it also feels kinda like a bizarre behavior to have as scum as well? That's like, the unique point I can still see for you being town. It feels like you're playing a classic newbie-scum game and maybe it would be a bit less obvious if you were actual scum?

but eh...I don't see a reason to trust you wouldn't be like this as scum. I don't think I should necessarily assume higher standards for your scum game without looking at it at least once given you're new/inexperienced and all. My first scum game as a newbie was also full of classic scum tells.

[Shirou]

about the case on GL...I could see GL as scum not really necessarily for the reasons Implosion listed but just because...I don't know, it feels like it would be reasonable/normal if GL flipped scum here? Maybe it's a gamestate read? I don't know.

Like Implo said, I find it hard to read GL by analyzing his arguments or so. He's really good at arguing with a towny scumhunting mindset even when he's red, it's how he snowed me on my first newbie game. I was looking for logical inconsistencies and his arguments were almost perfect, but he was scum anyway in the end.

I silently spectated back in the day a game where Norwe/GL were both scum against town!RC/town!Mena. I was correctly scum reading GL there but it was almost a complete gamestate read. It just "made sense" for him to be scum. His trajectory made sense from a logical point of view, but his trajectory when we were later on the game with many flips clearly favored more scum win condition than town. It felt a bit calculated?

IF redtea is town, and If we take the last claims at face-value, I think I would similarly see GL's trajectory so far kinda being pro-scum.

I do think I've been pro-scum as well though with Imaginality miselimination, so I'm not saying he's gonna flip scum just because of that, but basically, it does feel very plausible up to now that GL can be scum.

Eh, maybe this is an empty post that doesn't reach any good conclusion but I wanted to talk about my GL read because he's the most complex player to read to me in this playerlist...the unique other capable of rivaling him would perhaps be morph maybe?

Eh, but still, it's not like I think the other players are easy to read at all, I just feel GL/Morph is particularly hard.

[Shirou]

regardless of GL alignment though

I still think there's scum in Tejate/Meg *especially* with those recent claims now (if we're to believe them and for now I'm gonna believe on them, I like numberQ recent posts. They feel like he's really engaged in solving the game).


GL may or not be scum in my pov but there's almost always a guaranteed scum in Tejate/Meg for me. If both Tejate/Meg are town, I think it would be a bizarre world and we should name this game "NK15's Bizarre Adventures", but if that ever happened at all of both being town, I think there would be guaranteed scum in GL/Morph then, if not both?

[Shirou]

Hm, yeah

I think there's 2 scum at least in Meg/Tejate/GuiltyLion/Morph. Maybe all 3 but I could see one being out of that pool somewhere.

[Shirou]

Redtea can you like do something useful by the way?

I know I said it was a +town thing for you in D1 but like...this is D2 already and your ISO is as empty as a blank sheet paper?

It doesn't even feel like you're trying to play the game if I'm allowed to perhaps be a bit mean.

I genuinely feel like it wouldn't be a terrible idea to vote you if this keeps being the case not because I'm confident you flip scum or anything, but because I would refuse to lose to that ISO if you're ever scum here (even if the probability was/is very low due to meta)?

[Shirou]

I kinda feel like redtea may be intentionally doubling down on the "I'm not putting effort into reads here" thingy here after I said it was a ~towny~ thing for them, and I do think *that* could be argued as something scummy even when considering their meta. I expected them to do something, at some point, but it doesn't seem to be coming out.

[Shirou]

yeah, maybe add redtea to the pool of people I wouldn't hate to see flip like GL/Morph.

I do feel if we get redtea wrong though it would be such a huge waste of elimination but eh

/shrug

this is a bit too much even for low expectations about content. I shouldn't blame myself that much if it comes to that and we're wrong. I truly tried to read the slot properly.

[MegAzumarill]

brain says shitou then but gut says shirou scum
VOTE: Shirou

Feels agenda-y and less interested in actually solving

[Tejate Raichu]

How could you possibly be that confident that fua would be an impossible wagon? The argument you're referencing started on page 12.

???

where did he say it was an "impossible" wagon in the last posts?

I tend to paraphrase.

I'll reiterate: I don't see why town-GL would rather "create content and pressure fua" than creating content and pressuring Cephrir, who would have been a real wagon (i.e., real pressure) rather than a vanity vote.

Among that whole series of wallposts implo did, much of which I didn't like at all, this sticks out as something I really really do not like. This just doesn't make sense to me within the context of the situation at all.

1) No. I would actually be happy to flip them, rather than the null spot where I'm still mulling them over. But that seems quite unlikely to happen today.

what the hell...

like, this just doesn't feel like something town!Tejate would say compared to the completed newbie.

What about this post in particular gives you that impression? I don't really feel like it's that dissimilar from this.

I doubt the Laplacian wagon will go much of anywhere at the moment, so I would be more than comfortable with voting for my second best guess. So comfortable, in fact, that I'll just do it right now.

VOTE: ahllo

I'll move my vote elsewhere if necessary for elim or if I'm convinced, but at the moment this is in my opinion the person that needs to make their case the most.

Rather than

wait

people think that Morph is scummy by their own, I feel you would be more interested in engaging Morph by yourself and trying to convince other people of your opinion if you began feeling confident on it after engaging Morph.

Firstly, I don't feel as though I've entirely neglected that aspect. Besides, there's still plenty of time left in the day for that. Secondly, I'm actually more interested in considering your slot than morph's at right this second. I'll place my own vote when I've re-sorted.

[morph the cat]

@Tejate

No response to my post from last night?

[Cephrir]

regardless of GL alignment though

I still think there's scum in Tejate/Meg *especially* with those recent claims now (if we're to believe them and for now I'm gonna believe on them, I like numberQ recent posts. They feel like he's really engaged in solving the game).


GL may or not be scum in my pov but there's almost always a guaranteed scum in Tejate/Meg for me. If both Tejate/Meg are town, I think it would be a bizarre world and we should name this game "NK15's Bizarre Adventures", but if that ever happened at all of both being town, I think there would be guaranteed scum in GL/Morph then, if not both?

What is it about these slots that make you think theres one as opposed to suspecting both of them in general?

[Cephrir]

brain says shitou then but gut says shirou scum
VOTE: Shirou

Feels agenda-y and less interested in actually solving

What's agenday about that string of posts?

[Cephrir]

Among that whole series of wallposts implo did, much of which I didn't like at all, this sticks out as something I really really do not like. This just doesn't make sense to me within the context of the situation at all.

Can you explain this

I liked the point but did not examine the context

[Cephrir]

i feel like i should do stuff but the post density makes it difficult to want to

what if we just go for the easy one first

VOTE: megazumarill

[Cephrir]

Agh but that's not going to reduce the post density at all