Open 850: Democrabilities (Day 2, Elimination Phase)

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Radical Rat
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Post Post #625  (ISO)  » Sat May 14, 2022 10:10 am

In post 622, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Why should we vote for someone who's town with an eh chance of dying when we could vote for town who's less likely to die (based off yesterday scum probably would not want to kill me because im not a consensus townread and other more townread people have the same scumreads that i do so it's not like they would target me specifically if I am right, because of this i will probably also not just get a result on myself which would be unfavourable)

This is the last time I will push for this unless people have questions. If not enough people are swayed I will succumb and vote for Goldfish.
VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

Cat, if you're Town, just vote Alianna. All your same logic applies, except that Alianna's less likely to be scum.

MegAzumarill
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Post Post #626  (ISO)  » Sat May 14, 2022 10:22 am


Votecount 2.0.2
Image

GoldfishFromtheMoon (3) furtiveglance, GoldfishFromtheMoon, MalcolmTucker
Dunnstrall (1) Dunnstrall
Alianna (1) Radical Rat
Cat.jpeg (1) Cat.jpeg

Not Voting (2):Alianna, Flea The Magician

With 8 alive it takes 5 to make a decision.
Deadline:(expired on 2022-05-17 00:07:08)
Last edited by MegAzumarill on Sat May 14, 2022 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I wear suspicion as a bulletproof vest.

>( '.)

Alianna
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Post Post #627  (ISO)  » Sat May 14, 2022 3:31 pm

I know I'm town.
I think it's very unlikely that either Flea or Goldfish is scum.
I also think that if the pair was RR/Dunn, they would have no reason to sit on the Titus wagon when a viable and favourable counterwagon existed. So they're not paired.
Therefore, there is at least one scum in furtive/Cat/Malcolm.
I townread Alianna.

Dunnstral
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Post Post #628  (ISO)  » Sat May 14, 2022 5:29 pm

In post 624, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR


nope

Radical Rat
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Post Post #629  (ISO)  » Sat May 14, 2022 7:40 pm

Dunnstral, what are your thoughts on informing Alianna?

Radical Rat
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Post Post #630  (ISO)  » Sat May 14, 2022 7:42 pm

Or anyone other than yourself even

GoldfishFromTheMoon
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Post Post #631  (ISO)  » Sat May 14, 2022 7:44 pm

In post 622, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Why should we vote for someone who's town with an eh chance of dying when we could vote for town who's less likely to die (based off yesterday scum probably would not want to kill me because im not a consensus townread and other more townread people have the same scumreads that i do so it's not like they would target me specifically if I am right, because of this i will probably also not just get a result on myself which would be unfavourable)

This is the last time I will push for this unless people have questions. If not enough people are swayed I will succumb and vote for Goldfish.
VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

Cat I think you're town and I would vote for you, but seeing how some people scumread you it's pretty much impossible for your inform-wagon to go through. You should vote for someone who is likely to suceed (hint hint ME!).

In post 623, furtiveglance wrote:I shall be dead before I see the ring inform in the hands of an elf. yone other than Goldfish.

Hehe, loving the reference lol.

Cat.Jpeg wrote:In the scenario that the mafia have BP'd someone they will try and get elimmed today (probably RR, Alianna, or Dunnstral), because the fact that the mafia might have given the BP to them even though they are being scumread has been acknowledged then if they are scum they can pretend that is what happened. Also it would be stupid to eliminate the person we informed and i dont want to rule out any of these 3 from elimination.

In the more likely scenario that mafia has chosen to BP a consensus townread because it will be the least useful to town once we find out, then they know that person wont get voted out and will survive to the last day. In that case mafia probably BP'd somebody who they believe they can convince to vote with them. Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR (at the end of day one rr was the only person goldfish gave no read on or mentioned). And i think goldfish is likely to be BP because shes the most widely townread and also hasn't expressed as strong opinions or scumreads as other widely townread people.

But wait if goldfish is the BP that means shes also not the NK so voting her is fine? Im confusing myself. While i think goldfish is most likely to be BP its a 40% chance and the other 60% is split (not exactly evenly) between everyone else so i think shes most likely but still not likely. Whatever. Me being a better vote still makes sense (under the conditions you think im town). Vote Cat 2022.

I agree with this post, it makes a lot of sense and I think cat is right.
Except for the very last part as I've already said, I don't think we should vote cat, purely because not enough people will do it so we will end up not reaching a majority by the deadline and loosing the ability.
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If you hammer without posting intent as town I will pinpoint your exact location and you will feel the burn of my laser goldfish eyes staring at you all the way from the moon.

Cat.Jpeg
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Post Post #632  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 1:30 am

@golfish why do you townread Dunnstral?
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Cat.Jpeg
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Post Post #633  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 1:31 am

@goldfish*
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Also don't dwell

Cat.Jpeg
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Post Post #634  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 2:22 am

In post 625, Radical Rat wrote:
In post 622, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Why should we vote for someone who's town with an eh chance of dying when we could vote for town who's less likely to die (based off yesterday scum probably would not want to kill me because im not a consensus townread and other more townread people have the same scumreads that i do so it's not like they would target me specifically if I am right, because of this i will probably also not just get a result on myself which would be unfavourable)

This is the last time I will push for this unless people have questions. If not enough people are swayed I will succumb and vote for Goldfish.
VOTE: Cat.Jpeg

Cat, if you're Town, just vote Alianna. All your same logic applies, except that Alianna's less likely to be scum.

In post 576, Radical Rat wrote:We should stop and think this through.

As I mentioned just before the end of D1, scum would have Not wanted Titus to be eliminated. While this doesn't 100% clear her wagon, it's probably safe to assume that at least one scum would have been trying to redirect, and Titus's main counter wagon was Alianna, which saw moderate success, albeit not enough. From this, it's a pretty safe bet that Alianna is Town, and since we know she's been a contentious slot, it's more likely that scum have her lined up for elimination than nightkill.

VOTE: Alianna

I don't like 'If you are town do this' at all, not one bit

In your first post voting for alianna you come to the conclusion she is town because at least one of the scum would try and redirect from titus, the NK, and alianna was the counter wagon. The only thing is if she was scum then elimming the NK would be better than eliminating your scumbuddy. In the case that alianna was scum then her and her scumbuddy couldve started a wagon on someone else but at that point in the game it wouldve looked very suspicious and would out her partner. So i dont like your reasoning for townreading her. I still townlean her but solely for the reason that she unvoted titus which I might have been too confident of at the time but I still think holds. I think furtives reason for being sus of alianna simply because she was a conterwagon to town is bad.
I'm considering voting alianna because shes unlikely to be NK and I dont want to elim her but besides the unvote the rest of her posts I am null on. Im also sus of you but if alianna is town and you arent paired with her then i dont see why scum you is pushing for her unless she actually is the NK or you just want to say 'I told you so' if goldfish is killed. flea seems to have townread you for it so maybe you anticipated that. idk

I dont think malcom and furtive are paired because malcolm was one of the first to sus furtive and I also think furtive is town in general. Im not so sure about malcolm, especially if alianna is town.
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Flea The Magician
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Post Post #635  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 4:36 am

Will be posting and responding later.
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Radical Rat
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Post Post #636  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 7:47 am

It's true that if Alianna's scum, Titus is a better elimination for scum. However, scum could have easily moved onto literally anyone else, and they didn't. That tells me they were okay with at least one of the leading wagons, and since Titus was bad for them... Must've been Alianna.

MegAzumarill
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Post Post #637  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 8:04 am

Prodding MalcolmTucker
I wear suspicion as a bulletproof vest.

>( '.)

MalcolmTucker
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Post Post #638  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 8:23 am

Sorry I've had a really busy weekend, will be more active tomorrow.

Still very much feel we should not be informing Alianna here, far too risky.

furtiveglance
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Post Post #639  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 10:43 am

In post 636, Radical Rat wrote:It's true that if Alianna's scum, Titus is a better elimination for scum. However, scum could have easily moved onto literally anyone else, and they didn't. That tells me they were okay with at least one of the leading wagons, and since Titus was bad for them... Must've been Alianna.


If you think scum weren't on Titus yesterday, your view of the game is wrong. That's all I can say.

Alianna
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Post Post #640  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 10:46 am

In post 639, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 636, Radical Rat wrote:It's true that if Alianna's scum, Titus is a better elimination for scum. However, scum could have easily moved onto literally anyone else, and they didn't. That tells me they were okay with at least one of the leading wagons, and since Titus was bad for them... Must've been Alianna.


If you think scum weren't on Titus yesterday, your view of the game is wrong. That's all I can say.

Can you explain this further?
I townread Alianna.

furtiveglance
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Post Post #641  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 10:50 am

I don't think I should have to. Radical Rat is insinuating that the towniest people in the game are scum.

Alianna
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Post Post #642  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 11:13 am

From my POV, at least one of them has to be. I find it hard to see a world in which my wagon was all town because I know scum would want to eliminate me over the NK target. Either it's you or there's scum in your townreads.
I townread Alianna.

furtiveglance
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Post Post #643  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 11:25 am

My townreads are long in the making. I trust myself and my read of the game. I think you're mafia, either with Radical Rat or Dunnstral.

Alianna
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Post Post #644  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 2:58 pm

VOTE: GoldfishFromTheMoon

Next vote will be the hammer.
This seems like the most viable option. Obviously being informed myself would be nice and I'm basically guaranteed not the NK, but I don't think it's pro-town or worth it to push for that.
If anyone has any objections to Goldfish, speak now.
I townread Alianna.

Radical Rat
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Post Post #645  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 4:04 pm

I still think she's a prime target for nightkilling, and we should pick someone who isn't, but assuming she doesn't get killed, I don't actually object to her having the information.

Dunnstral
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Post Post #646  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 5:16 pm

Who do the players voting for Goldfish think will die during the night?

Alianna
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Post Post #647  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 7:37 pm

I don't think Goldie is an unlikely target, but Flea had much more of a presence D1 that I think would draw the NK.
I townread Alianna.

Alianna
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Post Post #648  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 7:46 pm

On second thought, the lack of a real counterwagon might suggest that Goldie really is slated to die or that she's the BP.

UNVOTE:
I townread Alianna.

furtiveglance
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Post Post #649  (ISO)  » Sun May 15, 2022 8:05 pm

In post 646, Dunnstral wrote:Who do the players voting for Goldfish think will die during the night?


I think me/Flea/Malcolm are all more likely than Goldfish based on Day 1.

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