Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[Alianna]

Alianna, out of interest, where do you sit on Dunn now? I thought your attempt to clear/TR them early on was very weak but I see you're now not so sure on that given Titus' elimination. You've not particularly pushed Dunn too strongly, I'd say, given you don't seem to think they're town, and I'm wary this could be an attempt at distancing, but I'd potentially be more likely to TR you if you're willing to look at a Dunn wagon. Of course, if Dunn was town, you'd then inversely look a bit scummier for this if you were suddenly willing to jump on it, so interested to hear where your thoughts are.

I'm probably going to redo my readslist but TL;DR for now is that they're in my PoE, very likely one of Dunn/RR but need to decide which.

[furtiveglance]

Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?

Radical rat

[Dunnstral]

Don't like the last few posts from furtive or malcolm

[furtiveglance]

Why not?

[furtiveglance]

A response to 668 would be great if possible

[Cat.Jpeg]

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

Why do you read each person that way?

[MalcolmTucker]

Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?

Dunn, I still TR Radical Rat to a degree despite disagreeing with them on some things. I feel like their play here (like wanting Alianna to be informed) would draw too much attention to them if scum, where we disagree I think they're just misguided.

Dunn's readslist and general approach here just feels a bit lazy/undercooked at the moment, as if they're aware they're under pressure and don't want to come under additional fire.

[MegAzumarill]

vc

[MalcolmTucker]

Feels like the game is very slow at the moment, unsure if that's just scum potentially under suspicion just trying to lie low or not. I'd expect players like Alianna/Dunn to be making a stronger case for alternative eliminations here given they're under suspicion/have been under suspicion but doesn't feel like that's been the case this turn until now. Especially with Alianna, who was much more active on D1.

[MalcolmTucker]

Anyway, I'll vote Dunn for now.

VOTE: Dunnstral

But would still be behind an Alianna wagon if it comes up unless I can be convinced otherwise. Still open to alternative ideas, as always, but no player under suspicion doing much to sway where I'm at right now.

[Radical Rat]

Mostly prodging.

I should share some thoughts, but I'm not certain who to vote for, still weighing options and have mostly just been observing.

Right now I'm fairly confident scum is in furtive/Malcolm/Cat. Definitely at least one in there, possibly two.
IF there was scum hiding on the Titus wagon, it probably was Dunn, but I don't feel strong enough there to say so definitively, beyond that his D2 looks a good deal worse than D1.

Maybe the right thing to do would be to just posthumously sheep Titus, maybe she saw something unique about Dunnstral's inactivity here compared to when he's inactive as Town and just couldn't communicate it properly. But it makes me nervous that the entire rest of my PoE is also pushing Dunn as scum.

So yeah, I don't know where I'm going yet. Ironically I might have actually wanted to no lim here, wait to see what the Inform does, but that's not possible, and probably wouldn't be a good idea anyway.

[Flea The Magician]

Not sure why I gain sus in the post above

Wasn't anything significant, that I could point to. Vibes.

These thoughts are....idk. Weird? Bad?

1) Nightkill analysis is even more useless than usual in this considering that it was done pre-game. Rat gets no towncred from that.

2) I don't need to elaborate on informing Goldfish. They're my strongest townread.

3) Your point about giving the Titus wagon towncred is illogical. It assumes that Alianna is town - which I don't think is true in the first place. The fact is that the Titus wagon were all voting town - they get scumcred in my eyes.

4) Are you sarcastically criticising my logic about Alianna still being scummy based on yesterday's wagon? If so, counter it.

5) You're casually sussing me/Malcolm/Cat. Expand on this.

In general, I don't like the playstyle of coast + wallpost with questionable content. I much prefer little and often, it helps understand your thought process.

NKA in a traditional sense, useless. I'm not using it in a traditional sense, I'm going on what I would expect people to do pre-game which would be based on knowledge of Titus.

You absolutely do, and in fact I'm going to insist on it.

What point about the Titus wagon? You mean Rats I agreed with?

Absolutely yes I'm being sarcy.
You are dismissing any wagon analysis reads by trying to pretend they're circular and amending to the wagon information to create your point.

Facts are: Alianna was the designated counterwagon. Titus wagon would've wanted to be avoided.
Scum are probably smart enough to put 1 on wagon at most.

Counterwagon drivers are likely to be scum pushes on town targets to maximise their win chance, there's nothing gained from pushing their own team as a counter.

For now it's safe to keep Alianna off the table, they're by no means confirmed, but it does present interesting insights - and you provided one yourself - the implication of yourself and Malcom.

Casually sussing? You and Malcom yes, Dunn, yes. Cat? no. Nothing casual about my sus there. And now there's nothing casual about my sus on you.
VOTE: Furtiveglance

Now this last line of yours is going to get its own post.

Re: 507 and 509 being LAMIST
I don't get what you mean by this. I did not read 507 as making any attempt to project alignment. It just looked like Goldfish being Goldfish. I can tell you that the same goes for my post 509.

Re: furtive's 566 criticizing Dunn's self-vote
Self-voting isn't auto-sus here. From an individual perspective, it makes sense to do so as either alignment because you're informed of your own alignment. The problem is that your fellow townies are not, so overall the pro-town decision is to give the information to somebody trusted. Goldfish is widely townread, so there isn't really an issue with her self-vote, but Dunn has been controversial.
Slightly related thought, scum could try to get a controversial player informed to sabotage the ability's effectiveness. I like 576 even less now.

Towncred for the sake of towncred. I dislike it.
Goldfish being goldfish means nothing to me. I don't know them.

I can likewise counter your point here with Dunn being Dunn.
Furtives 566 is trying to lecture someone with a join date 6 years older than them on how to play mafia.

, Mafia also cannot lie without outing themselves unless they "clear" themselves.

What do you mean? mafia can lie about someone who isnt them being BP'd because mafia could just not kill the person they said and it would seem like they were BP'd. How would that out the mafia.

Wasn't fully clear of mind at the time, more possibilities have been rolled. This is an optimal play from them here and them being informed works fully in scum favour here.

In the scenario that the mafia have BP'd someone they will try and get elimmed today (probably RR, Alianna, or Dunnstral), because the fact that the mafia might have given the BP to them even though they are being scumread has been acknowledged then if they are scum they can pretend that is what happened. Also it would be stupid to eliminate the person we informed and i dont want to rule out any of these 3 from elimination.

In the more likely scenario that mafia has chosen to BP a consensus townread because it will be the least useful to town once we find out, then they know that person wont get voted out and will survive to the last day. In that case mafia probably BP'd somebody who they believe they can convince to vote with them. Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR (at the end of day one rr was the only person goldfish gave no read on or mentioned). And i think goldfish is likely to be BP because shes the most widely townread and also hasn't expressed as strong opinions or scumreads as other widely townread people.

But wait if goldfish is the BP that means shes also not the NK so voting her is fine? Im confusing myself. While i think goldfish is most likely to be BP its a 40% chance and the other 60% is split (not exactly evenly) between everyone else so i think shes most likely but still not likely. Whatever. Me being a better vote still makes sense (under the conditions you think im town). Vote Cat 2022.

I don't think they'll go for a consensus TR personally, I think if they are a consensus TR then it's co-incidence. Thing here would be to confirm a player who is right on as few of the maf as possible. That player gets confirmed pretty much, and their takes are going to carry a little more weight than they probably should.

[Flea The Magician]

Great. I think Alianna is the best vote for today, just ahead of Radical Rat.

VOTE: Alianna

Why?

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?

How the heck did you get to 4?

I think Alianna would be a better elimination than RR of those two. I've not been particularly keen on RR's push for Alianna to be informed but I reckon it'd have been too blatant for a scum partnership to pull off personally. I disagree with RR's read on Alianna but it's probably a genuine, if flawed, one.

I'd also quite happily vote for Dunn, I reckon there's a decent chance we hit scum there.

I agree that I need to throw out Alianna/Radical Rat, after the inform thing.

I think it makes for Alianna/Dunnstral or Dunnstral/Radical Rat, which would put Dunnstral in my focus.

Yeah Alianna/Dunn would strike me as the most likely team right now, albeit with the caveat sometimes hard to be 100% confident with associatives.

Break down the associatives you have for me.

Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?

If I

had

to, Dunn.

[Flea The Magician]

In general, I don't like the playstyle of coast + wallpost with questionable content. I much prefer little and often, it helps understand your thought process.

So accusing me of coasting, interesting. D2 I've been absent admittedly because my health took a nose dive - as is it want to do when it feels like it.
Questionable content, oh yeah absolutely - and a good amount of the bait was taken. Even better though is almost every single post I'm seeing from you is so questionable on so many levels, and while you're trying to do your little and often - reality is I see you actually doing very little actual decent hunting and mostly excusing yourself.


As for understanding my thought process? Good luck. There's at least 3 sets of ADHD/Autism mindset and tracks to follow.

[Alianna]

I was making a scumcase and then my laptop died and the whole post got deleted ASDFGHJKL!!!

[Alianna]

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?

1 is just true.
If Dunn thinks you’re scum and is right, 2 is just implied as long as you aren’t scum with me.
3 is something you did whether you intended to or not.
4 is just not true. Malcolm didn’t even TR you until the readslist in 321, and in fact expressed slight suspicion of you. I will say though that I don’t see you/Malcolm as a team.

Not a fan of this post. It’s taking things that are totally reasonable to think and making them sound insane. It also implies I’m lockscum.
And then in the follow-up, you decided Dunn was more likely and unvoted me. I’m having a hard time seeing that sequence of posts as natural.

VOTE: furtiveglance

[Alianna]

Among other things, of course.

[Dunnstral]

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?

1) Sure, why not. I wasn't focused on that though
2) Sure, why not
3) As pointed out you did do this
4) Maybe. I didn't call you the worst scum team ever though.

None of those 4 points make me not scumread you

[Dunnstral]

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

Why do you read each person that way?

I still think FurtiveGlance is scummy from the start of the game and they way they overblow things. Malcolm feels like they are maneuvering in a scummy way. I don't trust Malcolm's reads or how they got there.

[furtiveglance]

Mostly prodging.

I should share some thoughts, but I'm not certain who to vote for, still weighing options and have mostly just been observing.

Right now I'm fairly confident scum is in furtive/Malcolm/Cat. Definitely at least one in there, possibly two.
IF there was scum hiding on the Titus wagon, it probably was Dunn, but I don't feel strong enough there to say so definitively, beyond that his D2 looks a good deal worse than D1.

Maybe the right thing to do would be to just posthumously sheep Titus, maybe she saw something unique about Dunnstral's inactivity here compared to when he's inactive as Town and just couldn't communicate it properly. But it makes me nervous that the entire rest of my PoE is also pushing Dunn as scum.

So yeah, I don't know where I'm going yet. Ironically I might have actually wanted to no lim here, wait to see what the Inform does, but that's not possible, and probably wouldn't be a good idea anyway.

If you were to sheep Titus' reads you'd vote Alianna, not Dunnstral.

[furtiveglance]

Not sure why I gain sus in the post above

Wasn't anything significant, that I could point to. Vibes.

These thoughts are....idk. Weird? Bad?

1) Nightkill analysis is even more useless than usual in this considering that it was done pre-game. Rat gets no towncred from that.

2) I don't need to elaborate on informing Goldfish. They're my strongest townread.

3) Your point about giving the Titus wagon towncred is illogical. It assumes that Alianna is town - which I don't think is true in the first place. The fact is that the Titus wagon were all voting town - they get scumcred in my eyes.

4) Are you sarcastically criticising my logic about Alianna still being scummy based on yesterday's wagon? If so, counter it.

5) You're casually sussing me/Malcolm/Cat. Expand on this.

In general, I don't like the playstyle of coast + wallpost with questionable content. I much prefer little and often, it helps understand your thought process.

NKA in a traditional sense, useless. I'm not using it in a traditional sense, I'm going on what I would expect people to do pre-game which would be based on knowledge of Titus.

You absolutely do, and in fact I'm going to insist on it.

What point about the Titus wagon? You mean Rats I agreed with?

Absolutely yes I'm being sarcy.
You are dismissing any wagon analysis reads by trying to pretend they're circular and amending to the wagon information to create your point.

Facts are: Alianna was the designated counterwagon. Titus wagon would've wanted to be avoided.
Scum are probably smart enough to put 1 on wagon at most.

Counterwagon drivers are likely to be scum pushes on town targets to maximise their win chance, there's nothing gained from pushing their own team as a counter.

For now it's safe to keep Alianna off the table, they're by no means confirmed, but it does present interesting insights - and you provided one yourself - the implication of yourself and Malcom.

Casually sussing? You and Malcom yes, Dunn, yes. Cat? no. Nothing casual about my sus there. And now there's nothing casual about my sus on you.
VOTE: Furtiveglance

Now this last line of yours is going to get its own post.

Re: 507 and 509 being LAMIST
I don't get what you mean by this. I did not read 507 as making any attempt to project alignment. It just looked like Goldfish being Goldfish. I can tell you that the same goes for my post 509.

Re: furtive's 566 criticizing Dunn's self-vote
Self-voting isn't auto-sus here. From an individual perspective, it makes sense to do so as either alignment because you're informed of your own alignment. The problem is that your fellow townies are not, so overall the pro-town decision is to give the information to somebody trusted. Goldfish is widely townread, so there isn't really an issue with her self-vote, but Dunn has been controversial.
Slightly related thought, scum could try to get a controversial player informed to sabotage the ability's effectiveness. I like 576 even less now.

Towncred for the sake of towncred. I dislike it.
Goldfish being goldfish means nothing to me. I don't know them.

I can likewise counter your point here with Dunn being Dunn.
Furtives 566 is trying to lecture someone with a join date 6 years older than them on how to play mafia.

, Mafia also cannot lie without outing themselves unless they "clear" themselves.

What do you mean? mafia can lie about someone who isnt them being BP'd because mafia could just not kill the person they said and it would seem like they were BP'd. How would that out the mafia.

Wasn't fully clear of mind at the time, more possibilities have been rolled. This is an optimal play from them here and them being informed works fully in scum favour here.

In the scenario that the mafia have BP'd someone they will try and get elimmed today (probably RR, Alianna, or Dunnstral), because the fact that the mafia might have given the BP to them even though they are being scumread has been acknowledged then if they are scum they can pretend that is what happened. Also it would be stupid to eliminate the person we informed and i dont want to rule out any of these 3 from elimination.

In the more likely scenario that mafia has chosen to BP a consensus townread because it will be the least useful to town once we find out, then they know that person wont get voted out and will survive to the last day. In that case mafia probably BP'd somebody who they believe they can convince to vote with them. Which is why if goldfish is BP i will be more sus of dunnstral and maybe RR (at the end of day one rr was the only person goldfish gave no read on or mentioned). And i think goldfish is likely to be BP because shes the most widely townread and also hasn't expressed as strong opinions or scumreads as other widely townread people.

But wait if goldfish is the BP that means shes also not the NK so voting her is fine? Im confusing myself. While i think goldfish is most likely to be BP its a 40% chance and the other 60% is split (not exactly evenly) between everyone else so i think shes most likely but still not likely. Whatever. Me being a better vote still makes sense (under the conditions you think im town). Vote Cat 2022.

I don't think they'll go for a consensus TR personally, I think if they are a consensus TR then it's co-incidence. Thing here would be to confirm a player who is right on as few of the maf as possible. That player gets confirmed pretty much, and their takes are going to carry a little more weight than they probably should.

I can't really strip quote without breaking the post so I'll respond down here.

The most important point here is that half of the players in the game are now analysing yesterday's vote in an unhelpful way. The fact is that I correctly townread Titus and wanted to keep them in the game yesterday. I maintain that Alianna has high scum equity. Using the setup with a pre-destined nightkill to limit today's functional scumpool to me/Malcolm/Cat is a really strange choice for a few reasons. Firstly, mafia would know that people would be looking at who defended the nightkill, so if I was mafia, I wouldn't have done that. Besides, having even numbers being bad for mafia is a complete myth. It's actually better for mafia to have even numbers as long as it stays that way until Elo.

Bottom line is if I was scum in this game I'd vote Titus yesterday to seem unaware that they were the nightkill and probably use it as a springboard to push people who were off the wagon the next day. It's interesting to see who's doing that today.

I'm not sure why 566 makes you think I'm mafia. It seems like it just annoys you for being a lecture.

[furtiveglance]

In general, I don't like the playstyle of coast + wallpost with questionable content. I much prefer little and often, it helps understand your thought process.

So accusing me of coasting, interesting. D2 I've been absent admittedly because my health took a nose dive - as is it want to do when it feels like it.
Questionable content, oh yeah absolutely - and a good amount of the bait was taken. Even better though is almost every single post I'm seeing from you is so questionable on so many levels, and while you're trying to do your little and often - reality is I see you actually doing very little actual decent hunting and mostly excusing yourself.


As for understanding my thought process? Good luck. There's at least 3 sets of ADHD/Autism mindset and tracks to follow.

Firstly, I hope you're doing ok health-wise.

I didn't realise there was any bait, or that I took it. What do you mean by this?

If you want to assert that my every post is questionable and excusing myself, and I haven't been scumhunting at all, you should probably quote posts you think show this. But you might be surprised to find a lot of open reads, attempts to solve and create discussion instead.

If you aren't able to post more frequently that's fine. I'm just trying to show you my perspective that if I don't see anything from you for some time and a lot of stuff has happened in game, and then you make some posts detailing how your stances have significantly changed, it's hard for me to see why they've changed so much, and it feels more sudden than if you'd been reacting in real time.

[furtiveglance]

@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.

Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?

1 is just true.
If Dunn thinks you’re scum and is right, 2 is just implied as long as you aren’t scum with me.
3 is something you did whether you intended to or not.
4 is just not true. Malcolm didn’t even TR you until the readslist in 321, and in fact expressed slight suspicion of you. I will say though that I don’t see you/Malcolm as a team.

Not a fan of this post. It’s taking things that are totally reasonable to think and making them sound insane. It also implies I’m lockscum.
And then in the follow-up, you decided Dunn was more likely and unvoted me. I’m having a hard time seeing that sequence of posts as natural.

VOTE: furtiveglance

Firstly, this isn't a scumcase. You're just responding to something I asked of Dunnstral, and then voting me at the end.

My attempt was to show how unreasonable these things would be to do for me. It's not how I would play this setup as scum at all. In my view of the game, you are likely mafia yes. But my point wasn't even to say that you're definitely mafia and everyone must agree. It's that to consider me scummy for trying to get a pivot off Titus is bad logic because it assumes that you're town. About my own reads and actions regarding voting, I think my scumpool is pretty clear and I've said who I think are bad several times. My current solve is essentially [Alianna/Radical Rat, Dunnstral] which is why I want to vote Dunnstral over you today.What don't you find natural about this? I shared this exact viewpoint in 669.

[furtiveglance]

As for thought process, what do you want to know?

Why do you read each person that way?

I still think FurtiveGlance is scummy from the start of the game and they way they overblow things. Malcolm feels like they are maneuvering in a scummy way. I don't trust Malcolm's reads or how they got there.

I was pretty dramatic in my early posting. Since then I've settled down a bit.