Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)


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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 1:58 am

Post by Alianna »

I did have more to say about you, but I didn’t feel like redoing the whole thing on my phone so I just replied to the post that pinged me the most. I realize I didn’t exactly convey that. Later today I can do that though.
I townread Alianna.

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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 2:03 am

Post by furtiveglance »

Great, look forward to it.
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 2:05 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

In post 696, furtiveglance wrote:I can't really strip quote without breaking the post so I'll respond down here.

The most important point here is that half of the players in the game are now analysing yesterday's vote in an unhelpful way. The fact is that I correctly townread Titus and wanted to keep them in the game yesterday. I maintain that Alianna has high scum equity. Using the setup with a pre-destined nightkill to limit today's functional scumpool to me/Malcolm/Cat is a really strange choice for a few reasons. Firstly, mafia would know that people would be looking at who defended the nightkill, so if I was mafia, I wouldn't have done that. Besides, having even numbers being bad for mafia is a complete myth. It's actually better for mafia to have even numbers as long as it stays that way until Elo.

Bottom line is if I was scum in this game I'd vote Titus yesterday to seem unaware that they were the nightkill and probably use it as a springboard to push people who were off the wagon the next day. It's interesting to see who's doing that today.

I'm not sure why 566 makes you think I'm mafia. It seems like it just annoys you for being a lecture.
Nuance is a powerful thing and something you seem to lack.
The fact you correctly townread Titus is nothing, so did I for most of the day until she took a stupidly bad take which is odd for her and ngl I'm a lil worried about her.

Even Numbers is abslutely better for mafia, that was never in dispute.

Bottom line in self-meta and saying what scum you would do is NAI - the weight you put there however, is AI. Your whole defence again is "I don't play like that."

566 is just a shitty post and I could be inclined to say its a mislim setup. Frankly I don't think you're that stupid.
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 2:16 am

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 702, Flea The Magician wrote:
In post 696, furtiveglance wrote:I can't really strip quote without breaking the post so I'll respond down here.

The most important point here is that half of the players in the game are now analysing yesterday's vote in an unhelpful way. The fact is that I correctly townread Titus and wanted to keep them in the game yesterday. I maintain that Alianna has high scum equity. Using the setup with a pre-destined nightkill to limit today's functional scumpool to me/Malcolm/Cat is a really strange choice for a few reasons. Firstly, mafia would know that people would be looking at who defended the nightkill, so if I was mafia, I wouldn't have done that. Besides, having even numbers being bad for mafia is a complete myth. It's actually better for mafia to have even numbers as long as it stays that way until Elo.

Bottom line is if I was scum in this game I'd vote Titus yesterday to seem unaware that they were the nightkill and probably use it as a springboard to push people who were off the wagon the next day. It's interesting to see who's doing that today.

I'm not sure why 566 makes you think I'm mafia. It seems like it just annoys you for being a lecture.
Nuance is a powerful thing and something you seem to lack.
The fact you correctly townread Titus is nothing, so did I for most of the day until she took a stupidly bad take which is odd for her and ngl I'm a lil worried about her.

Even Numbers is abslutely better for mafia, that was never in dispute.

Bottom line in self-meta and saying what scum you would do is NAI - the weight you put there however, is AI. Your whole defence again is "I don't play like that."

566 is just a shitty post and I could be inclined to say its a mislim setup. Frankly I don't think you're that stupid.
If Even Numbers is better for mafia then, why are you saying mafia wouldn't vote the nightkill?
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 2:17 am

Post by furtiveglance »

I also disagree about my defence. It's less 'I wouldn't do that' and more 'No one would do that'.
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 2:21 am

Post by Cat.Jpeg »

My brain is kinda frazzled right now but even though I disagree with a lot of what furtive says I think they are town. Its mostly going off vibes but I don't think scum would play like this. Malcolm seems a lot more calculated and could be partnered RR. I havent read enough to see if i think they look like a pair but I think malcolm townreads them.
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 2:58 am

Post by MegAzumarill »


Vote Count 2.1.1
Image
furtiveglance (2*) Flea the Magician, Alianna
Dunnstrall (1) MalcolmTucker

Not Voting (5) furtiveglance, GoldfishFromtheMoon, Radical Rat, Dunnstrall, Cat.jpeg,

With 8 votes it takes 5* to make someone sleep with the fishes.
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Last edited by MegAzumarill on Wed May 18, 2022 4:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 4:29 am

Post by Radical Rat »

In post 704, furtiveglance wrote:I also disagree about my defence. It's less 'I wouldn't do that' and more 'No one would do that'.
And yet they do, all the time. In some cases, using this very defense!

VOTE: furtiveglance

I think I'm willing to settle here. Over the past few phases I've said probably as much as I can say here. I was holding off because I know I'm prone to confirmation bias tunneling, but no matter how I try to look at the game right now, it all comes back to furtive. I just cannot imagine a scenario in which this flips Town
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 4:49 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

In post 703, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 702, Flea The Magician wrote:
In post 696, furtiveglance wrote:I can't really strip quote without breaking the post so I'll respond down here.

The most important point here is that half of the players in the game are now analysing yesterday's vote in an unhelpful way. The fact is that I correctly townread Titus and wanted to keep them in the game yesterday. I maintain that Alianna has high scum equity. Using the setup with a pre-destined nightkill to limit today's functional scumpool to me/Malcolm/Cat is a really strange choice for a few reasons. Firstly, mafia would know that people would be looking at who defended the nightkill, so if I was mafia, I wouldn't have done that. Besides, having even numbers being bad for mafia is a complete myth. It's actually better for mafia to have even numbers as long as it stays that way until Elo.

Bottom line is if I was scum in this game I'd vote Titus yesterday to seem unaware that they were the nightkill and probably use it as a springboard to push people who were off the wagon the next day. It's interesting to see who's doing that today.

I'm not sure why 566 makes you think I'm mafia. It seems like it just annoys you for being a lecture.
Nuance is a powerful thing and something you seem to lack.
The fact you correctly townread Titus is nothing, so did I for most of the day until she took a stupidly bad take which is odd for her and ngl I'm a lil worried about her.

Even Numbers is abslutely better for mafia, that was never in dispute.

Bottom line in self-meta and saying what scum you would do is NAI - the weight you put there however, is AI. Your whole defence again is "I don't play like that."

566 is just a shitty post and I could be inclined to say its a mislim setup. Frankly I don't think you're that stupid.
If Even Numbers is better for mafia then, why are you saying mafia wouldn't vote the nightkill?
I pull some weird fucking plays but even I know I'm this setup scum need to secure this game asap
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 6:14 am

Post by MalcolmTucker »

In post 688, Flea The Magician wrote:
In post 659, furtiveglance wrote:Great. I think Alianna is the best vote for today, just ahead of Radical Rat.

VOTE: Alianna
Why?
In post 668, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 664, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 662, Cat.Jpeg wrote:@Dunnstral can you give a readlist and explian some of your thought process? I feel like most of your posts are about if we should double elim or not or defending your vote on Titus. I don't scumread you for voting Titus and originally to me her posts looked very scummy but I had more of a gut feeling that she was town, I get why you voted her though. What I do scumread you for is the lack of solve-driven input from you and the lack of expressing any townreads.
Towny: Goldfish, Alianna, Flea
Null: Radical Rat, radital cat
Scummy: FurtiveGlance, Malcolm

That is where I am at with reads

As for thought process, what do you want to know?
These reads are really strange.
You think that:
1) Yesterday was town/town
2) I knew that and didn't want to condemn the nightkill
3) I loudly townread the nightkill and begged for a pivot to another town
4) Malcolm and I have paired openly and townread each other all game as the worst scumteam ever

Scumcase me. How did you get here?
How the heck did you get to 4?
In post 670, MalcolmTucker wrote:
In post 669, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 665, MalcolmTucker wrote:I think Alianna would be a better elimination than RR of those two. I've not been particularly keen on RR's push for Alianna to be informed but I reckon it'd have been too blatant for a scum partnership to pull off personally. I disagree with RR's read on Alianna but it's probably a genuine, if flawed, one.

I'd also quite happily vote for Dunn, I reckon there's a decent chance we hit scum there.
I agree that I need to throw out Alianna/Radical Rat, after the inform thing.

I think it makes for Alianna/Dunnstral or Dunnstral/Radical Rat, which would put Dunnstral in my focus.
Yeah Alianna/Dunn would strike me as the most likely team right now, albeit with the caveat sometimes hard to be 100% confident with associatives.
Break down the associatives you have for me.
In post 676, furtiveglance wrote:Question for everyone. If you had to vote either Dunnstral or Radical Rat today, who would you vote?
If I
had
to, Dunn.
Sorry for quoting the whole thing - but probably easier since the game has moved on a fair bit and I'd not replied yet: I'd personally have my main scum team down as Alianna/Dunn at the moment personally.

You could potentially be partners with Alianna as well, although I think your play has generally been a bit more townie even if I disagree with you on certain reads, I feeel like you've made a genuine effort to solve in the past few pages after you were partially absent for legit reasons.

Cat could still be mafia I guess, but not seeing an obvious team there at the moment.

This is also partially why I struggle to see Furtive mafia in this scenario - struggle to see who would be their partner given I TR Goldfish and Furtive has probably TR'd them a bit too strongly for the two of them to be partners alongside each other.
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 7:33 am

Post by furtiveglance »

I'm at E-2 out of nowhere. That means at least 1 town is voting for me, probably 2.

I feel wronged. I'm trying to solve, I'm being open, I'm giving reads.

I called Titus town and you killed them anyway, so you guys haven't helped me solve at all.

What I'm saying is that I think I'm playing well, townreading town and scumreading scum, and other town aren't playing as well.

I thought I was a pretty likely nightkill, but judging by today scum probably think they can condemn me off the back of a bad start.

I've kind of gone off Alianna being scum, I'm seeing Dunnstral/Radical Rat right now.

The worst vote on me comes from Radical Rat. 707 ^^ looks really sneaky and desperate to appear uninformed by talking about confbias and stuff.

I think town will lose if I'm eliminated today, it's as simple as that for me.

I'd love a Radical Rat vote today, maybe even more than a Dunnstral vote. But I do think Dunnstral is likely scum as well.

Practically we have a problem with today's vote. Flea/Alianna/RR/Dunnstral will all end up voting me, whereas me/Malcolm/Cat/Goldfish will vote the counter - either Dunnstral or RR.

Dunnstral, would you vote for Radical Rat instead of me?

Alianna, will you vote either Dunnstral or RR?
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 8:03 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:I'm at E-2 out of nowhere. That means at least 1 town is voting for me, probably 2.

I feel wronged. I'm trying to solve, I'm being open, I'm giving reads.

I called Titus town and you killed them anyway, so you guys haven't helped me solve at all.
Calling Titus town gets you nothing. No credit, no free pass, no get out of jail free card.
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:What I'm saying is that I think I'm playing well, townreading town and scumreading scum, and other town aren't playing as well.

I thought I was a pretty likely nightkill, but judging by today scum probably think they can condemn me off the back of a bad start.

I've kind of gone off Alianna being scum, I'm seeing Dunnstral/Radical Rat right now.

The worst vote on me comes from Radical Rat. 707 ^^ looks really sneaky and desperate to appear uninformed by talking about confbias and stuff.
I do actually agree with you on the RR vote, but RR seems to have same kinda mindset as I do currently.
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:I think town will lose if I'm eliminated today, it's as simple as that for me.
Then fight. Make it so you're needed for town, make it so you make sense and have good presence. Cause all you've done is extrapolate and dismiss others foundations.
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:I'd love a Radical Rat vote today, maybe even more than a Dunnstral vote. But I do think Dunnstral is likely scum as well.

Practically we have a problem with today's vote. Flea/Alianna/RR/Dunnstral will all end up voting me, whereas me/Malcolm/Cat/Goldfish will vote the counter - either Dunnstral or RR.
Convince me otherwise, there's others I'm happy to vote for other than you currently.
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:Dunnstral, would you vote for Radical Rat instead of me?

Alianna, will you vote either Dunnstral or RR?
You think Dunn is scummy and seeing if they'll vote RR, then just asking Alianna to save you somehow? Stuff like this is why you're failing vibe checks.
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 8:33 am

Post by furtiveglance »

I'm trying to be realistic and practical. I can't help you with vibes. Is it possible that you don't like my vibes regardless of alignment?
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 12:01 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Explain why I should vote for Radical Rat
Most of your case seems to be that they are paired with me, which I don't agree with
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 12:17 pm

Post by MegAzumarill »

GoldfishFromTheMoon has been prodded
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 12:39 pm

Post by GoldfishFromTheMoon »

Hi I exist.
Sorry for inactivity,
Thoughts coming on various posts.
Always assume I am phone-posting

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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 1:00 pm

Post by GoldfishFromTheMoon »

Ok so furtive I still think you're town but some of your recent play really doesn't make sense. Below is a breakdown of 710:

Spoiler:
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:I'm at E-2 out of nowhere. That means at least 1 town is voting for me, probably 2.

I feel wronged. I'm trying to solve, I'm being open, I'm giving reads.

I called Titus town and you killed them anyway, so you guys haven't helped me solve at all.

What I'm saying is that I think I'm playing well, townreading town and scumreading scum, and other town aren't playing as well.
Not a fan of the guilt tripping, mislims happen, you shouldn't blame the rest of us for thinking Titus was scum.
You've argued in a couple of your posts that you correctly townread titus and that should give you towncred, which isn't true.

Spoiler:
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:I'm seeing Dunnstral/Radical Rat right now.
I find it hard to see you naturally coming to this conclusion. In previous games, and I think in this one, you've argued before that you didn't have the scum team pinned down because it's never the most obvious choice, and yet this game you think the two scum are the two players who are close to consensus scumreads.

Spoiler:
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote: I think town will lose if I'm eliminated today, it's as simple as that for me.
If you are town I think this is true, although you could probably say that for any town player. A miselimination puts us in a very bad situation tommorow. Unless you are the intended nightkill in which case we might have a chance.

Spoiler:
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote: Practically we have a problem with today's vote. Flea/Alianna/RR/Dunnstral will all end up voting me, whereas me/Malcolm/Cat/Goldfish will vote the counter - either Dunnstral or RR.
You shouldn't assume which way people will vote, if you get scummy enought I will vote for you, the townblock only stands so long as we both townread each other, and people currently on your wagon have other scumreads and might switch.
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 2:52 pm

Post by Alianna »

The other main point I had planned to bring up about furtive was that their progression on me was odd. They pivoted onto me very quickly and just decided their mind was made up. Perhaps I'm placing too much weight on past games, but this is not what I would expect from someone who has misread me before. I was going to say the unvote was opportunistic, but after re-reading the post I don't think I can say that with any certainty.

I see that furtive posted some other stuff, so I'm going to read through that now.
I townread Alianna.

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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 3:06 pm

Post by Alianna »

In post 704, furtiveglance wrote:I also disagree about my defence. It's less 'I wouldn't do that' and more 'No one would do that'.
I really don't think that's true. There are clear benefits to not voting out the NK target. I cannot for the life of me come up with the words to explain why but this feels like you did that.
I townread Alianna.

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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 3:24 pm

Post by Alianna »

Okay, so this is interesting.
In post 710, furtiveglance wrote:I'm at E-2 out of nowhere. That means at least 1 town is voting for me, probably 2.

I feel wronged. I'm trying to solve, I'm being open, I'm giving reads.

I called Titus town and you killed them anyway, so you guys haven't helped me solve at all.

What I'm saying is that I think I'm playing well, townreading town and scumreading scum, and other town aren't playing as well.

I thought I was a pretty likely nightkill, but judging by today scum probably think they can condemn me off the back of a bad start.

I've kind of gone off Alianna being scum, I'm seeing Dunnstral/Radical Rat right now.

The worst vote on me comes from Radical Rat. 707 ^^ looks really sneaky and desperate to appear uninformed by talking about confbias and stuff.

I think town will lose if I'm eliminated today, it's as simple as that for me.

I'd love a Radical Rat vote today, maybe even more than a Dunnstral vote. But I do think Dunnstral is likely scum as well.

Practically we have a problem with today's vote. Flea/Alianna/RR/Dunnstral will all end up voting me, whereas me/Malcolm/Cat/Goldfish will vote the counter - either Dunnstral or RR.

Dunnstral, would you vote for Radical Rat instead of me?

Alianna, will you vote either Dunnstral or RR?
If I'm wrong and you're town, I'm going to feel really bad about voting you. If you're scum, congrats, the AtE almost worked.

What concerns me here is the last two points.
You said earlier in the post that you think Dunn/RR is the most likely team and now you're asking Dunn if they'll vote RR?
The last point is the second time that you've appealed to me specifically. Makes me think you've got an ulterior motive.
I townread Alianna.

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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 3:35 pm

Post by Alianna »

On second thought, the fact that your thoughts have been so all-over-the-place today is probably town-indicative.

UNVOTE:

I'll see myself out now.
I townread Alianna.

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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 3:44 pm

Post by Alianna »

Why do I do this to myself?
I townread Alianna.

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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 3:48 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 718, Alianna wrote:
In post 704, furtiveglance wrote:I also disagree about my defence. It's less 'I wouldn't do that' and more 'No one would do that'.
I really don't think that's true. There are clear benefits to not voting out the NK target. I cannot for the life of me come up with the words to explain why but this feels like you did that.
Mafia are allowed to shoot at the bulletproof player, so at the very least it is in their ballpark whether we are at evens or odds, no matter if Titus gets eliminated or not. I pointed this out earlier when I argued to use the double eliminate.
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 4:51 pm

Post by Radical Rat »

I find the notion that scum would willingly give up a nightkill, be that through eliminating their target or targeting the BP, just for the slight advantage putting us on evens gives them to be absolutely absurd.

If it were actually worth doing, N1 no kill would be the meta in every game that allows it.
Maybe the real Mafia was the friends we made along the way

Shiny and new GTKAS thread!
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Wed May 18, 2022 4:54 pm

Post by Radical Rat »

And the way furtive has just hyperfocused on "Well, eliminating Town, that's scummy" to the exclusion of all other circumstances is just... Bad.

It's exactly why I initially sussed him for saying we should just quickhammer whoever leads a Town wagon. And sure, that was a joke that I'd misinterpreted, and yet here is that same philosophy being pushed seriously.
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