Open 855: Not Mafia's Republic | Game Over

[Not_Mafia]

Why do say Penguin has to be mafia?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

this was the VC yesterday:

Ydrasse (5): Arete Lastname, staypositivefriend, AbbyandRani, The Abomination, catboi
catboi (4): PookyTheMagicalBear, Not_Mafia, PenguinPower, Save The Dragons

Not Voting (1): Ydrasse

Assuming no mafia bussed, then the 4 votes on catboi are me(town) and 2 Mafia + 1 VT/Werewolf.

If you're VT, that would make the other 2 voters [Penguin/STD] Mafia.

The reason why Mafia shouldn't bus in the setup is:

(1) Bussing eliminates your numbers and doesn't help you because you still get shot at night by the wolves.

(2) Town by definition does not want to eliminate Mafia when the split is 5/3/2 because eliminating mafia leads to the town losing.

(3) you need to kill werewolves by day vote - it is literally the only way to kill them, if you don't you will lose the game along with the town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

also if you as mafia decided to hammer mafia ydrasse thats like game throwing levels of bad because you knew she wasnt a werewolf and you hammered her anyway

[Not_Mafia]

Right.

I think I'm wrong on catboi then.

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: SPF

Splitting the difference, I think Abby and Rani is independently scummier, but SPF is still scummy and has partner vibes with catboi

VOTE: staypositivefriend ~koba

[Arete Lastname]

Why does my interaction with ydrasse look sus

you kept calling them scum but you never voted them and you voted people you had higher on your readlist than them over them, including specifically sharing a wagon with them

i thought catboi was scummier and i literally said that

this is functionally untrue

Hello everyone.

Town list:
SPF
Catboi
Spooky

Abomination is tough because they fall off or they post something I don't like at all and then there's times where 90 posts and I'm a fan of it.

Ydrasse looks... kinda better than Taly? Leaving her alone and waiting to see how she progresses with the game.

Right now my choices to vote would be 4Mask or Meditation.

Everyone else has been incapable of leaving any sort of mark or is unmemorable so far.

- Braaaaaad

Braaaaad, or can I say Mr. Wolf, in what universe has Ydrasse looked better than Taly? I'm asking because Taly at least made a few game relevant posts whereas I've seen nothing of the sort from Ydrasse.

+1 i think taly even though they made game related posts didn't do much of anything and ydrasse has done literally nothing but put up a readslist to this point it some partner equity here

^ here's where you talk about your Ydrasse read (suggesting she is scum)

town
staypositivefriend
The Abomination
Save The Dragons
PookyTheMagicalBear
Arete Lastname
Meditation

null
catboi
Not_Mafia

scum
4maskwolf
AbbyandRani
Ydrasse
PenguinPower

VOTE: PenguinPower

^ here you have her as your second highest scumread, whereas Catbae is null for you

(you also never vote Ydrasse after this point)

is doing nothing towny or scummy

i think it's scummy i think you're actively just floating in the thread doing nothing to make it look like you're playing but you're spending your time memeing

i also didn't like taly's entry so you're suffering from that as well

what part of my posting makes u think i’m trying to pass off my joking as playing

i think there’s a clear line drawn btwn content and the rest

i mean you're not really playing that much imo up until now

like idk

i look at my reads and they halfway match yours right

so we’re drawing similar conclusions

so do you think that i’m like tmi or sheeping or what

our reads can be similar? it just means we have similar reads. it's multiball, maybe we're both right maybe we're both wrong but saying we have similar reads and acting like they're the same is a little uncharitable

esp bc then i feel like

u should have catboi with me in mafia bc we’re thinking like

similar fmpov with different executions of energy

but you’ve left him there in the middle as a maybe

because it looks like he's trying to solve but he's not answering my questions so i put him in maybe

you don't look like you're trying to solve you're just memeing so i put you in scum

^ here you specifically explain why you think Ydrasse is scummier than Catbae

i also feel like ydrasse OMGUS'd me with her vote because i suspected her and i answered all her questions but she hasn't reassessed which makes me go hmm

these reads are all, like, really blatantly fake

why are you looking for fake reads in multiball is it because your reads are fake?

^ this is the closest thing I can find to an actual explanation of your points on Catbae and afaict it's a joke?

VOTE: catboi

^ here's your initial vote on Catbae, this is around the time I had started aggressively pushing Ydrasse

You know what I'm going to shut up since I'm still at work and read everything when everything calms down. This is too much chaos for me

- sk

pooky is going to flood the thread and throw a tantrum to try to get his way in order to drown out any possibility whatsoever of having actual discussion

how do i VOTE: catboi more

^ this could I guess also constitute an explanation of your read on Catbae

are we not doing obv scum catboi

^ here you call Catbae obvscum but don't explain why

so like

throughout this whole Iso you keep being like 'here are reasons that Ydrasse is scum' 'I think Ydrasse is worse than Catbae' but when Ydrasse actually came under pressure you were like 'actually I've decided we should kill Catbae instead' and barely gave any reasons

it's ok though all of this makes you mafia not a werewolf so we're not voting you out today (you should claim though so that you can pick an execution)

[Arete Lastname]

Pooky can you explain again like I'm a stupid child why werewolves definitely wouldn't split their votes in this setup

I feel like 'scum split their votes' is the normal thing I expect to happen when they don't have a partner up for contention

[Not_Mafia]

I keep forgetting STD is actually in this game

[Save The Dragons]

I'm in this game

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky can you explain again like I'm a stupid child why werewolves definitely wouldn't split their votes in this setup

I feel like 'scum split their votes' is the normal thing I expect to happen when they don't have a partner up for contention

I dunno for sure if the werewolves split their votes or not.

if both werewolves are in the "townbloc" then I would expect them to keep their votes together on ydra.

like the townbloc yesterday was essentially catboi + spf + sabihydra + arete + abomhydra.

If two wolves in the townbloc, they have no reason to votesplit, they can just hide in townbloc and keep yeeting the mafia/townies outside the townbloc and nightkill in the townbloc.

there's no reason for a wolf in the townbloc to vote against townbloc because as long as that townbloc remains "solid" the the wolves in the townbloc

cannot be voted out

AbomHydra was literally the only person in the townblock willing to consider thinking about yeeting inside the townbloc and they got shot in the face last night.


Like vote splitting to look unaligned is a base level strategy but this is not a base level game because town only occupies 50% of the slots - they can literally lim 3 mafia in a row and win on parity.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like if you guys are super sure that townbloc has only one wolf in it, then that means the 3 voters other than me are Mafia/Mafia/Wolf.

Which means the two mafia know who one of the wolves is

and like i dunno wtf they're doing but they sure aren't telling us who it is.

[Arete Lastname]

like if you guys are super sure that townbloc has only one wolf in it, then that means the 3 voters other than me are Mafia/Mafia/Wolf.

Which means the two mafia know who one of the wolves is

and like i dunno wtf they're doing but they sure aren't telling us who it is.

so where I'm at right now is like

group 1: people who have not been townie

STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia

none of these people have anything going for them. you can maybe sorta make an argument that STD has occasionally been solving but he is also kinda blatantly a Ydrasse partner.

it would make me really sad if any of those people were town. reality, obviously, doesn't care what makes me sad, but if someone is going to sign up to a game and then not even bother to try to solve at all then, like, what are they even doing!!

(admittedly their play is mostly kind of disappointing as scum too but I play on MU, I'm used to there being evils who just don't even bother to try)

but like

it's day 3

surely anyone in this group who's town should be able to do literally anything townie whatsoever by now, and they haven't

I do agree with your theory that this is more likely to have both mafia based on voting patterns from yesterday

group 2: people who have been townie

you, Braddra, SPF, Catbae

mathematically there's gotta be a scum in this group

so then I'm like

well, you look pretty good from the argument with Catbae yesterday, you kinda attached a giant lightning rod to yourself there, which you probably wouldn't want to do on either bad guy team. your day 1 shield on Penguin makes me think you're not likely to be scum unless you're specifically with him -- so if he flipped mafia or whatever I could basically clear you of being a werewolf. And you've been the hardest pusher on 'we need to kill werewolves not mafia' which makes me think that if you're scum you're more likely to be mafia, and I don't care if you're mafia, and also you being mafia would imply really weird things about yesterday's wagons. but then you're the one on the list I have the least handle on, you've been playing since I was two years old, maybe you could be galaxy-braining me?? but I don'tt hink so.

and then with Brad + Sabi, I've played several times with Brad as both alignments, and he's just a terrible scum, seriously I think me and SPF and Gira are failing to convey just how bad at scum he is. (this was really frustrating one time when I was trying to get him misexe'd on my homesite and he was like 'no I've been posting and I can't do that as evil' and like half the game was like 'yeah' and I kept pushing and one of him or his hydra partner threw a massive tantrum in thread. idk if I'm allowed to blame him for that though, it might've been his partner.) anyways, he would need to have massively levelled up his play as evil to be a wolf here. I also think some of the interactions between Sabi + Brad are real, like them fighting about SPF's alignment (although that could technically be real even if they are scum).

and then with SPF, she's been "solvy" all game though that's fakeable in multiball, her progressions have seemed really natural, I feel bad about yeeting her when she's clearly trying. I guess I have less I can solidly point to that makes her Definitely Town, that's not something she's fooled me with before.

and then with Catbae -- well, this doesn't change whether he is, but I really don't want the solviest tryhardiest person in the whole game to be an evil, that's just embarrassing for the rest of us. but even if I put that aside, like, he's been making enemies, he Cares in a way that no one else Cares, he had that whole emotional thing yesterday, and if he's either evil there's no one I can point to that makes sense as his partner.

and when I write it out like this the obvious conclusion is that I'm misreading SPF and was kind of avoiding looking in that direction because it'd make me feel stupid

but idt I'm misreading anyone else in the group?

idk what the mafia are doing. my current best guess is that there are two mafia in {STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia} and they're avoiding saying anything that might be taken as confirming that because if they confirm that they lose, as long as they can say there Could Be a mafia in the townblock they have a chance of victory, just a really small one

I've been trying to get one of them to juuuust claiiiiim already but so far it doesn't seem to be working

I guess it's also possible they know they're fucked and have decided to throw for werewolves rather than town, in which case I don't really have anything I can say to convince them otherwise other than 'gamethrowing is bad, play to win' which, well,

gestures at Ydrasse not claiming

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if you're scum you're more likely to be mafia, and I don't care if you're mafia, and also you being mafia would imply really weird things about yesterday's wagons. but then you're the one on the list I have the least handle on, you've been playing since I was two years old, maybe you could be galaxy-braining me?? but I don'tt hink so.

if i was mafia i would've convinced ydrasse in the scum PT to claim mafia and she would've listened to me.

or i would've just claimed mafia myself

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i mean what i say about treating claimed mafia like masons cuz that's literally what they are atp

[Arete Lastname]

if you're scum you're more likely to be mafia, and I don't care if you're mafia, and also you being mafia would imply really weird things about yesterday's wagons. but then you're the one on the list I have the least handle on, you've been playing since I was two years old, maybe you could be galaxy-braining me?? but I don'tt hink so.

if i was mafia i would've convinced ydrasse in the scum PT to claim mafia and she would've listened to me.

or i would've just claimed mafia myself

unconvinced Ydrasse would've listened but I kinda buy that mafia!you just goes into yesterday, claims, and declares that your best guess is that Catbae's a werewolf

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the last time I scummed with Ydrasse I convinced her to claim doctor as a mafia doctor and we nokilled on n1 to "create" a doctor, she went on to win the game.

I am pretty sure she would listen to me if I asked her to claim as mafia and I was on her team.

[Not_Mafia]

like if you guys are super sure that townbloc has only one wolf in it, then that means the 3 voters other than me are Mafia/Mafia/Wolf.

Which means the two mafia know who one of the wolves is

and like i dunno wtf they're doing but they sure aren't telling us who it is.

so where I'm at right now is like

group 1: people who have not been townie

STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia

none of these people have anything going for them. you can maybe sorta make an argument that STD has occasionally been solving but he is also kinda blatantly a Ydrasse partner.

it would make me really sad if any of those people were town. reality, obviously, doesn't care what makes me sad, but if someone is going to sign up to a game and then not even bother to try to solve at all then, like, what are they even doing!!

(admittedly their play is mostly kind of disappointing as scum too but I play on MU, I'm used to there being evils who just don't even bother to try)

but like

it's day 3

surely anyone in this group who's town should be able to do literally anything townie whatsoever by now, and they haven't

I do agree with your theory that this is more likely to have both mafia based on voting patterns from yesterday

group 2: people who have been townie

you, Braddra, SPF, Catbae

mathematically there's gotta be a scum in this group

so then I'm like

well, you look pretty good from the argument with Catbae yesterday, you kinda attached a giant lightning rod to yourself there, which you probably wouldn't want to do on either bad guy team. your day 1 shield on Penguin makes me think you're not likely to be scum unless you're specifically with him -- so if he flipped mafia or whatever I could basically clear you of being a werewolf. And you've been the hardest pusher on 'we need to kill werewolves not mafia' which makes me think that if you're scum you're more likely to be mafia, and I don't care if you're mafia, and also you being mafia would imply really weird things about yesterday's wagons. but then you're the one on the list I have the least handle on, you've been playing since I was two years old, maybe you could be galaxy-braining me?? but I don'tt hink so.

and then with Brad + Sabi, I've played several times with Brad as both alignments, and he's just a terrible scum, seriously I think me and SPF and Gira are failing to convey just how bad at scum he is. (this was really frustrating one time when I was trying to get him misexe'd on my homesite and he was like 'no I've been posting and I can't do that as evil' and like half the game was like 'yeah' and I kept pushing and one of him or his hydra partner threw a massive tantrum in thread. idk if I'm allowed to blame him for that though, it might've been his partner.) anyways, he would need to have massively levelled up his play as evil to be a wolf here. I also think some of the interactions between Sabi + Brad are real, like them fighting about SPF's alignment (although that could technically be real even if they are scum).

and then with SPF, she's been "solvy" all game though that's fakeable in multiball, her progressions have seemed really natural, I feel bad about yeeting her when she's clearly trying. I guess I have less I can solidly point to that makes her Definitely Town, that's not something she's fooled me with before.

and then with Catbae -- well, this doesn't change whether he is, but I really don't want the solviest tryhardiest person in the whole game to be an evil, that's just embarrassing for the rest of us. but even if I put that aside, like, he's been making enemies, he Cares in a way that no one else Cares, he had that whole emotional thing yesterday, and if he's either evil there's no one I can point to that makes sense as his partner.

and when I write it out like this the obvious conclusion is that I'm misreading SPF and was kind of avoiding looking in that direction because it'd make me feel stupid

but idt I'm misreading anyone else in the group?

idk what the mafia are doing. my current best guess is that there are two mafia in {STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia} and they're avoiding saying anything that might be taken as confirming that because if they confirm that they lose, as long as they can say there Could Be a mafia in the townblock they have a chance of victory, just a really small one

I've been trying to get one of them to juuuust claiiiiim already but so far it doesn't seem to be working

I guess it's also possible they know they're fucked and have decided to throw for werewolves rather than town, in which case I don't really have anything I can say to convince them otherwise other than 'gamethrowing is bad, play to win' which, well,

gestures at Ydrasse not claiming

I think you're mistaking

effort

for actual towniness

[PenguinPower]

Sorry for the absence - I’ll be around tomorrow.

lol I’m not mafia.

So you're wolf?

incorrect

[AbbyandRani]

I'm going to be out of the country for the rest of the week after today so Brad is in charge of this hydra till next Monday when I'm back home. Be nice to him.

I will give my thoughts on this conversation later today when I'm home from work.

- sk

[Arete Lastname]

like if you guys are super sure that townbloc has only one wolf in it, then that means the 3 voters other than me are Mafia/Mafia/Wolf.

Which means the two mafia know who one of the wolves is

and like i dunno wtf they're doing but they sure aren't telling us who it is.

so where I'm at right now is like

group 1: people who have not been townie

STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia

none of these people have anything going for them. you can maybe sorta make an argument that STD has occasionally been solving but he is also kinda blatantly a Ydrasse partner.

it would make me really sad if any of those people were town. reality, obviously, doesn't care what makes me sad, but if someone is going to sign up to a game and then not even bother to try to solve at all then, like, what are they even doing!!

(admittedly their play is mostly kind of disappointing as scum too but I play on MU, I'm used to there being evils who just don't even bother to try)

but like

it's day 3

surely anyone in this group who's town should be able to do literally anything townie whatsoever by now, and they haven't

I do agree with your theory that this is more likely to have both mafia based on voting patterns from yesterday

group 2: people who have been townie

you, Braddra, SPF, Catbae

mathematically there's gotta be a scum in this group

so then I'm like

well, you look pretty good from the argument with Catbae yesterday, you kinda attached a giant lightning rod to yourself there, which you probably wouldn't want to do on either bad guy team. your day 1 shield on Penguin makes me think you're not likely to be scum unless you're specifically with him -- so if he flipped mafia or whatever I could basically clear you of being a werewolf. And you've been the hardest pusher on 'we need to kill werewolves not mafia' which makes me think that if you're scum you're more likely to be mafia, and I don't care if you're mafia, and also you being mafia would imply really weird things about yesterday's wagons. but then you're the one on the list I have the least handle on, you've been playing since I was two years old, maybe you could be galaxy-braining me?? but I don'tt hink so.

and then with Brad + Sabi, I've played several times with Brad as both alignments, and he's just a terrible scum, seriously I think me and SPF and Gira are failing to convey just how bad at scum he is. (this was really frustrating one time when I was trying to get him misexe'd on my homesite and he was like 'no I've been posting and I can't do that as evil' and like half the game was like 'yeah' and I kept pushing and one of him or his hydra partner threw a massive tantrum in thread. idk if I'm allowed to blame him for that though, it might've been his partner.) anyways, he would need to have massively levelled up his play as evil to be a wolf here. I also think some of the interactions between Sabi + Brad are real, like them fighting about SPF's alignment (although that could technically be real even if they are scum).

and then with SPF, she's been "solvy" all game though that's fakeable in multiball, her progressions have seemed really natural, I feel bad about yeeting her when she's clearly trying. I guess I have less I can solidly point to that makes her Definitely Town, that's not something she's fooled me with before.

and then with Catbae -- well, this doesn't change whether he is, but I really don't want the solviest tryhardiest person in the whole game to be an evil, that's just embarrassing for the rest of us. but even if I put that aside, like, he's been making enemies, he Cares in a way that no one else Cares, he had that whole emotional thing yesterday, and if he's either evil there's no one I can point to that makes sense as his partner.

and when I write it out like this the obvious conclusion is that I'm misreading SPF and was kind of avoiding looking in that direction because it'd make me feel stupid

but idt I'm misreading anyone else in the group?

idk what the mafia are doing. my current best guess is that there are two mafia in {STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia} and they're avoiding saying anything that might be taken as confirming that because if they confirm that they lose, as long as they can say there Could Be a mafia in the townblock they have a chance of victory, just a really small one

I've been trying to get one of them to juuuust claiiiiim already but so far it doesn't seem to be working

I guess it's also possible they know they're fucked and have decided to throw for werewolves rather than town, in which case I don't really have anything I can say to convince them otherwise other than 'gamethrowing is bad, play to win' which, well,

gestures at Ydrasse not claiming

I think you're mistaking

effort

for actual towniness

maybe

if we temporarily stipulate a world where you're town, who are the evils and which ones are on which team

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i feel like i am trying harder to give the mafia team a chance to win then the mafia team is trying to win atp

[DkKoba]

Votecount 3.1

staypositivefriend

(2): PookyTheMagicalBear, Not_Mafia

PenguinPower

(1): Arete Lastname

Not_Mafia

(1): AbbyandRani

Not Voting

(4): catboi, Save The Dragons, staypositivefriend, PenguinPower



With 8 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline ends in: (expired on 2022-07-09 15:23:42).

[DkKoba]

staypositivefriend is being prodded

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: Catboi probably a wolf

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

bruh r u reading anything im writing