Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame
-
-
Not Known 15
- catboi
-
catboi Jack of All Trades
- catboi
- Fredrick A Campbell
-
Fredrick A Campbell Fre/He/She/It/They/伊Mafia Scum
- Fredrick A Campbell
Fre/He/She/It/They/伊- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2278
- Joined: March 11, 2018
- Pronoun: Fre/He/She/It/They/伊
Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.In post 527, Roden wrote:Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?-
-
Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3744
- Joined: September 15, 2017
You seem to have read it. Why don't you agree?In post 552, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.In post 527, Roden wrote:Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?- Elements
-
Elements she/herBloop
- Elements
she/her- Bloop
- Bloop
- Posts: 7729
- Joined: December 15, 2018
- Pronoun: she/her
- Location: Arrakis
Yes...In post 549, Not Known 15 wrote:In post 545, Not Known 15 wrote:
This is a scummy post.In post 542, MathBlade wrote:This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.
I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.
Rest I haven’t read
Me:Scumcase against Math,pointing to Elements as scum, too.In post 546, Elements wrote:how?
Math:"I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed "
Does this look like a town reaction to you?I agree with everything Elements is posting - Papa Zito
It's scummy as fak tho - Gamma Emerald
All my completed games- Fredrick A Campbell
-
Fredrick A Campbell Fre/He/She/It/They/伊Mafia Scum
- Fredrick A Campbell
Fre/He/She/It/They/伊- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2278
- Joined: March 11, 2018
- Pronoun: Fre/He/She/It/They/伊
Well, the only part I disagree on is that MathBlade being the convert means that Elements is the Cult Leader.In post 553, Not Known 15 wrote:
You seem to have read it. Why don't you agree?In post 552, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.In post 527, Roden wrote:Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?- Fredrick A Campbell
-
Fredrick A Campbell Fre/He/She/It/They/伊Mafia Scum
- Fredrick A Campbell
Fre/He/She/It/They/伊- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2278
- Joined: March 11, 2018
- Pronoun: Fre/He/She/It/They/伊
-
-
Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3744
- Joined: September 15, 2017
Drapion was very hedgy Day 1. I attributed this to a cult leader. There were multiple people with questionable... wait a moment I need to check something very important.In post 556, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:Not Known 15, why did you think ProfessorDrapion is the Cult Leader in day 1?-
-
Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3744
- Joined: September 15, 2017
So, like I said... very likely CL.(but in this case cultist instead)In post 278, Not Known 15 wrote:But the Cult leader will not play like a normal cult member. And Drapion checks a lot of boxes there with the early play and meg's hedging on Drapion, elements terrible reactions to my drapion hedging early case and the follow up read, and, actually, your own reluctance to vote Drapion after what you said, they all point in the same direction. Unless there is no cult in Elements/MegAzumarill/MathBlade then Drapion is Cult, and if Drapion is Cult then very likely Cult Leader. And yes, on day 1 you actually should CL hunt; just a 50%chance of someone being Cult leader and 50% of being town Day 1 is a far superior option to someone with 33% chance of being CL/other cult/town.
But Math... everything we non-CL read Math for happened after this so it could have been staged. Need to look more when I have time.- Fredrick A Campbell
-
Fredrick A Campbell Fre/He/She/It/They/伊Mafia Scum
- Fredrick A Campbell
Fre/He/She/It/They/伊- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2278
- Joined: March 11, 2018
- Pronoun: Fre/He/She/It/They/伊
(To Not Known 15)
I am assuming that ProfessorDrapion was hedging. The past day phase suggests Elements was the cult leader. However, I believe there is as much evidence that Malakittens is the cult leader. As for you, I am starting to think that none of what I am seeing from you is just an act, which was really the last thing that was making me consider you as the cult leader.
This leaves just Malakittens and Elements. Do you have anything to suggest that Malakittens isn't the cult leader?
VOTE: Malakittens- Gamma Emerald
-
Gamma Emerald AnySurvivor
- Gamma Emerald
Any- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 69101
- Joined: August 9, 2016
- Pronoun: Any
- Location: Hell on Earth (aka Texas)
-
-
Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3744
- Joined: September 15, 2017
Ok, no. Drapion was pushing Math too much, including at E-1. Way too much risk if Math was CL.
So it's now indeed between Mala and Elements
That's what Math says about Mala.Roden and Malakittens are the only viable suspects that meet all the criteria from Drapions play. However I find the soft defenses of Drapion much more compelling as a CL candidate..
and this.In post 520, MathBlade wrote:
Possible CL pool to meIn post 469, MathBlade wrote:MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely
This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.
I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.
However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.
As I said will move on but I really think Roden is cult here
Contrasting, elements...
OR Math was converted and Elements is scum. This is coming after Math pushing Elements Day 1, and saying (Day 1):In post 423, MathBlade wrote:I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.
I kinda want to see how people open.In post 207, MathBlade wrote:180 is how I form reads
That's a BS reading of this. If (TOWN) flips wolf then (SCUMPARTNER) is town is a classic move to drive attention away from (SCUMPARTNER) for a day, making them survive more(which can be absolutely critical if that scumpartner is CL!), and that assumes that Gamma does go down. It's early day stuff.In post 464, MathBlade wrote:
I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.In post 92, ProfessorDrapion wrote:I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.
This was part of the stuff why Math is scum - their "logic" makes no sense at all, first saying "probably no convert", then "Bad vibes but probably not CL", and then continuing pushing Roden backed by the now obsolete argument "probably no convert". That is stitched together instead of natural progression.In post 486, MathBlade wrote:
Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL thoughIn post 483, MegAzumarill wrote:
Ditto here tbhIn post 480, Not Known 15 wrote:
Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?In post 479, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.
But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion
Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/
So I am just blah.
And that also means that "bad vibes but probably not CL" is a defense, and guess why.
Now I am going to do votecount analysis.-
-
Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3744
- Joined: September 15, 2017
Hmmmmmmmmm votecounts.
Was this planned? Is this SvS? Let me think about this a bit.In post 312, ProfessorDrapion wrote:
Yeah honestly I can see it from how Math has went about me and how he brought up Gamma, and the town read, plus indirectly trying to get players to vote for me.In post 310, Elements wrote:
Makes me think math could be CLIn post 309, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: frederick e campbell
ok this is actually scum
mala vote is cheap, sus on me is cheap too
Yeah that could actually be CL and Gamma is trying to save it.
Yeah I hope this flips CL so I can just bury Gamma tomorrow.
VOTE: MathBlade-
-
Not Known 15
- MegAzumarill
-
MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All Trades
- MegAzumarill
She/Her- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5470
- Joined: July 14, 2021
- Pronoun: She/Her
I suppose it's different but I don't really fully understand your case on Math hereIn post 548, Not Known 15 wrote:
Looked at it. That is a playstyle clash with a bit of tunnelling on Math's part. An 1v1 with tunnely behaviour is not the same as pushing multiple BS reads(their scumreads, and the Elements townread).In post 547, MegAzumarill wrote:
See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1In post 544, Not Known 15 wrote:
Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.In post 543, MegAzumarill wrote:
I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amountIn post 541, Not Known 15 wrote:
It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.In post 536, MegAzumarill wrote:NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.
Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.
I think there's a fairly compelling case as to why Math was probably not converted last night
(Looking a little ahead I do see how a recruit!Math last night could tie into Elements!CL by poe now)Imprefection is the spice of life.- MegAzumarill
-
MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All Trades
- MegAzumarill
She/Her- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5470
- Joined: July 14, 2021
- Pronoun: She/Her
I would highly doubt itIn post 562, Not Known 15 wrote:Hmmmmmmmmm votecounts.
Was this planned? Is this SvS? Let me think about this a bit.In post 312, ProfessorDrapion wrote:
Yeah honestly I can see it from how Math has went about me and how he brought up Gamma, and the town read, plus indirectly trying to get players to vote for me.In post 310, Elements wrote:
Makes me think math could be CLIn post 309, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: frederick e campbell
ok this is actually scum
mala vote is cheap, sus on me is cheap too
Yeah that could actually be CL and Gamma is trying to save it.
Yeah I hope this flips CL so I can just bury Gamma tomorrow.
VOTE: MathBladeImprefection is the spice of life.- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
Comments in bold and in-line because mobile.
Bold italics is NK15 original bold text
In post 521, Not Known 15 wrote:We all can say with confidence that Mathblade isn't CL.
So Mathblade was Town Day 1.
This is " I think X but". We saw this on Drapion, who flipped Cult.In post 423, MathBlade wrote:I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.
I kinda want to see how people open.
While factually correct, I find this misleading. I form hypothesis and test them. My prior hypothesis were wrong, so I go back and retest them.
Premise 1: I am town.
Premise 2: I was not converted.
Premise 3: Either A) I was targeted for conversion and failed or b) wasn’t targeted.
Premise 4: If premise three B is true If I wasn’t targeted for conversion (option B) then there is likely some other threat more important. Therefore Elements is not likely CL.
Premise 5: If premise three A) then reads were correct.
Conclusion: Since I was wrong about prior reads and reevaluating it is unlikely I would be culted. So it’s much more likely Elements is not CL.
This is how I operate. What’s meant by that if is a way of backpedaling. My if->then statements are not structured as such. Ergo your statement is correct but misleading.
Yeah no. That assessment is actually made out of thin air. All rests on the unsubstantiated "Drapion is one of those too honest scum"; and even if it was honest it might have been something Drapion wanted toIn post 462, MathBlade wrote:
This read way too honest for me. This reads to me like Drapion had a plan to be TR’d early and Drapion is one of those too honest scum that doesn’t know yet how to highlight which points of scum to highlight and which not. This makes me think that Drapion will have never voted the cult leader.In post 28, ProfessorDrapion wrote:Yeah honestly I think our objective here is to figure out who the CL is and make sure they are executed today.
Also make sure to remember that the second cult member might try and save their CL today cause if they don’t they would have a low chance of winning.
My suggestion is to make sure if your town reading someone not to blindly sheep their town reads (I never do) but cause like they could be the second cultist trying to make their CL look good so make sure you have valid reasons for each of your Townreads.avoid doingbecause they knew it.
It is not out of “thin air”. It’s made up three criteria. 1) My extensive experience in scum and seeing how people play scum differently. A moderately/experienced scum will use truth as a weapon. A newer scum tends to try to “mimick” town play. In other words a new scum makes it about avoiding elim but a moderate/experienced player makes it about controlling gamestate and emotions. 2) The meta of Drapion is that he’s more on the abrasive/literal side. This again means that directly lies would not be in his wheelhouse. 3) Based on combining 1 and 2 Drapion being a traditionally honest player means that somewhere is likely too honest. That paragraph stood out to me as that point reading it by tone.
This is some next level BS because this rests on "there was a bus" which we have no credible evidence for. It took a lot for Drapion to be limmed.In post 464, MathBlade wrote:
I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.In post 92, ProfessorDrapion wrote:I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.
The "elements is town" case is, again, made out of thin air.
Fun fact when I get off work, I can expand on this in more depth but it is very likely (based on statistics) 1-2 scum are on the Drapion wagon. Is it absolutely certain, no, but towns work with the most probable thing to win.
Why would Math assume that the CL would try to convert them? Maybe because it succeeded?In post 470, MathBlade wrote:
This very much reads to me like Drapion’s CL had the intention of converting me and then driving that bus into the ground. Let’s look at the prior post Drapion had.In post 417, ProfessorDrapion wrote:Yes.
One of my voters are definitely a cult and I think it’s Math.
You’re welcome to make that assumption but I think if you take a step back and keep up with the thread you’ll find it very wrong. I have played in plenty a cult and scum game. Starting from what we know, everything after the hammer from Malakittens is wine. It was all deliberate rapid fire. It’s designed to make us look off wagon so we absolutely should look exactly where Drapion said to.
This is again, Math's scum bullshit mode meta.In post 472, MathBlade wrote:Now comes the question of who Roden would convert.
If they tried me and failed they would know they would need to buddy me. Especially if they think I am the inconvertible Townie.
This really matches his open and why I wanted to back off and give space to see if someone else was a convert target.
Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.
VOTE: Roden
This rests on the assumption that Roden failed to convert(something that is not likely from the position of a VT). It also rests on "no one else has been converted".
And I believe I have established the reasons for those premises reading in combination and between the lines of what has been said. I strongly believe I wasn’t converted. Either because I lied and I am not VT or because I believe someone else was or I believe in a certain PR world. I don’t care to elaborate which as this is scum’s problem to keep up with.
Backed up by exactly nothing.In post 473, MathBlade wrote:
The one exception is maybe Frederick because imho that PoE is terrible.In post 456, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.
My PoE of who could and could not be cult leader was available and combining that with the PoE demonstrates that. This is a lie.
We have to remove the CL. So this is a soft defense of Elements.In post 486, MathBlade wrote:
Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL thoughIn post 483, MegAzumarill wrote:
Ditto here tbhIn post 480, Not Known 15 wrote:
Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?In post 479, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.
But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion
Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/
So I am just blah.
That isn't the only telling thing though, here!
Remember what Math said before?Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.But if that thing would give them a bad vibe, and element isn't CL, they could be the convert, right?
However, Mathblade never backs down from that theory:
Admittedly I do tunnel at times but it’s because a foundational premise isn’t being answered. Everyone does this it’s a matter of how concrete they are with their premises. If a prior premise is proven false (Eg with Drapion flipping scum) then I look at two things
1) Where was I wrong
2) What actions would scum take.
Having lost a member they would need to ensure a recruit.
Therefore if the CL was widely TRd they’d hit a lurker or someone who is destructive but expendable. I fit the second criteria with reads wrong.
If the CL was not widely TRd then they would need a mid tier town for support. 1) to avoid a Jailkeep if it exists and 2) to give enough support.
So that’s why I think Roden as a CL works
I also think by play you’re an excellent CL as you’re really not reading some posts in depth with a Townie mindset.I need to reread why I excluded you from CL and Roden convert.
In post 514, MathBlade wrote:
Repeating this repeatedly is toxic af to the gameIn post 505, Roden wrote:I didn't take back a read on you. Like there's nothing else to say here, what you're seeing here is a completely foreign interpretation of what actually happened.
What I'm understanding is that because I didn't unvote Hutmeil after you replaced in, you think that I scum read you as well. If that's the case, that's something I can understand. If not, I don't know what to say, I can't argue with something that I know didn't happen.
I will just go after you tomorrow when we don’t flip the CL today because we cant
Well, that was not what I was expecting....
but Mathblade has spewed themselves as the convert... and Elements as Cult Leader.
Every time Mathblade said loads of massive BS it was when scum-pushing someone, with one exception. Elements.
This is also telling us that Elements is Mathblade's CL: Math is trying to establish a thought progression here, but on Day 1 Math said:In post 423, MathBlade wrote:I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.
I kinda want to see how people open.
I was evidently wrong on that one post (458) coming from town.In post 207, MathBlade wrote:180 is how I form reads
Scum rarely if ever do relational reads or feel where the vibes are
So I make hypothesis and test them
VOTE: ElementsScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
I really don’t like this very empty post from Roden.In post 527, Roden wrote:Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?
They’re a wall poster.
My eyes aren’t crying from the amount of words then it pings me.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.In post 537, MegAzumarill wrote:Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)
Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.
I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.
Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.
I like to play town to give scum no good options.
I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.
If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
You said I am town on D1. I know I was town and still am town.In post 548, Not Known 15 wrote:
Looked at it. That is a playstyle clash with a bit of tunnelling on Math's part. An 1v1 with tunnely behaviour is not the same as pushing multiple BS reads(their scumreads, and the Elements townread).In post 547, MegAzumarill wrote:
See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1In post 544, Not Known 15 wrote:
Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.In post 543, MegAzumarill wrote:
I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amountIn post 541, Not Known 15 wrote:
It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.In post 536, MegAzumarill wrote:NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.
Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.
Therefore on D1 I was not pushing BS reads. They may be horribly explained or if you find a flaw illogical but not BS reads. Therefore the playstyle clash d1 being because of BS reads or same style demonstrates I am town no?ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
To me, yes.In post 549, Not Known 15 wrote:In post 545, Not Known 15 wrote:
This is a scummy post.In post 542, MathBlade wrote:This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.
I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.
Rest I haven’t read
Me:Scumcase against Math,pointing to Elements as scum, too.In post 546, Elements wrote:how?
Math:"I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed "
Does this look like a town reaction to you?
It finds your premise, “Math is the recruit and therefore Elements is CL” and addresses “Math is the recruit premise”
You’re more than welcome to argue that Elements is the CL if you wish to do so in a logical manner.
I don’t tell people to think a certain way. I present my evidence and why I think the way I do.
I know the premise I am the recruit is factually wrong so I started there so you (if town) can adjust perspective and see if you reach the same or different criteria based on that changing.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade- MegAzumarill
-
MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All Trades
- MegAzumarill
She/Her- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5470
- Joined: July 14, 2021
- Pronoun: She/Her
1. Why would Jailkeeper have crumbed targets? I don't see any reason why they would.In post 568, MathBlade wrote:
I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.In post 537, MegAzumarill wrote:Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)
Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.
I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.
Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.
I like to play town to give scum no good options.
I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.
If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.
2. I don't think the people on the wagon are likely to be aligned with Drapion (maybe NK15, but I do think thwir recent push on you is coming from town.) Shooting with the intention to hit cultist is basically all WIFOM
3. Scum is incentivised to not recruit you regardless
4. I feel like my PoE is still correct for CL.
Looking to hear why you think we should be limming on wagon thoughImprefection is the spice of life.- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
I am not even seeing your premises to address themIn post 561, Not Known 15 wrote:Ok, no. Drapion was pushing Math too much, including at E-1. Way too much risk if Math was CL.
So it's now indeed between Mala and Elements
That's what Math says about Mala.Roden and Malakittens are the only viable suspects that meet all the criteria from Drapions play. However I find the soft defenses of Drapion much more compelling as a CL candidate..
and this.In post 520, MathBlade wrote:
Possible CL pool to meIn post 469, MathBlade wrote:MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely
This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.
I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.
However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.
As I said will move on but I really think Roden is cult here
Contrasting, elements...
OR Math was converted and Elements is scum. This is coming after Math pushing Elements Day 1, and saying (Day 1):In post 423, MathBlade wrote:I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.
I kinda want to see how people open.In post 207, MathBlade wrote:180 is how I form reads
That's a BS reading of this. If (TOWN) flips wolf then (SCUMPARTNER) is town is a classic move to drive attention away from (SCUMPARTNER) for a day, making them survive more(which can be absolutely critical if that scumpartner is CL!), and that assumes that Gamma does go down. It's early day stuff.In post 464, MathBlade wrote:
I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.In post 92, ProfessorDrapion wrote:I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.
This was part of the stuff why Math is scum - their "logic" makes no sense at all, first saying "probably no convert", then "Bad vibes but probably not CL", and then continuing pushing Roden backed by the now obsolete argument "probably no convert". That is stitched together instead of natural progression.In post 486, MathBlade wrote:
Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL thoughIn post 483, MegAzumarill wrote:
Ditto here tbhIn post 480, Not Known 15 wrote:
Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?In post 479, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.
But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion
Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/
So I am just blah.
And that also means that "bad vibes but probably not CL" is a defense, and guess why.
Now I am going to do votecount analysis.
Elements made a good CL based on vibes.
I see the entire game disagreeing with me in the exact same manner as D1
Hence me being blah about it and disconnected.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
1. I think it’s more habit or accidental than anything else. But maybe I am wrong *shrug* it’s how I read things. Maybe I need reading glasses or something.In post 571, MegAzumarill wrote:
1. Why would Jailkeeper have crumbed targets? I don't see any reason why they would.In post 568, MathBlade wrote:
I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.In post 537, MegAzumarill wrote:Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)
Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.
I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.
Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.
I like to play town to give scum no good options.
I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.
If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.
2. I don't think the people on the wagon are likely to be aligned with Drapion (maybe NK15, but I do think thwir recent push on you is coming from town.) Shooting with the intention to hit cultist is basically all WIFOM
3. Scum is incentivised to not recruit you regardless
4. I feel like my PoE is still correct for CL.
Looking to hear why you think we should be limming on wagon though
2. I think the majority are town (factually true because even if CL on convert on 3>2 or equal if you don’t count Mala) but I don’t think it’s exclusively off wagon as that makes for an incredibly hard D2 with forced bussing and increased scrutiny on the CL. With a shitty D1, I don’t think scum sign up for a double or nothing.
3. I disagree with this premise for reasons stated. Please explain.
4. Okay how did you get there? I don’t see how.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade- MathBlade
-
MathBlade He/HimTechnical Support
- MathBlade
He/Him- Technical Support
- Technical Support
- Posts: 42761
- Joined: September 9, 2013
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Western US
Back to work for me but will check later tonightScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade - MathBlade
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.
- MathBlade
- MathBlade
- MegAzumarill
- MathBlade
- MathBlade
- MathBlade
- MathBlade
- MathBlade
- MegAzumarill
- MegAzumarill
- Gamma Emerald
- Fredrick A Campbell
- Fredrick A Campbell
- Fredrick A Campbell
- Elements
- Fredrick A Campbell