Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[Not Known 15]

Oh nvm, Elements. That's why they couldn't see it.

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.04

Ow, I was born to the city
But I longed to roam free

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Not Known 15, Malakittens

Malakittens (2):

Roden, MegAzumarill

Fredrick A Campbell (1):

Elements

Roden (1):

MathBlade

Not Known 15 (1):

Fredrick A Campbell

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.

[Not Known 15]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.

You seem to have read it. Why don't you agree?

[Elements]

This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.

I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.

Rest I haven’t read

This is a scummy post.

how?

Me:Scumcase against Math,pointing to Elements as scum, too.
Math:"I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed "
Does this look like a town reaction to you?

Yes...

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.

You seem to have read it. Why don't you agree?

Well, the only part I disagree on is that MathBlade being the convert means that Elements is the Cult Leader.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Not Known 15, why did you think ProfessorDrapion is the Cult Leader in day 1?

[Not Known 15]

Not Known 15, why did you think ProfessorDrapion is the Cult Leader in day 1?

Drapion was very hedgy Day 1. I attributed this to a cult leader. There were multiple people with questionable... wait a moment I need to check something very important.

[Not Known 15]

But the Cult leader will not play like a normal cult member. And Drapion checks a lot of boxes there with the early play and meg's hedging on Drapion, elements terrible reactions to my drapion hedging early case and the follow up read, and, actually, your own reluctance to vote Drapion after what you said, they all point in the same direction. Unless there is no cult in Elements/MegAzumarill/MathBlade then Drapion is Cult, and if Drapion is Cult then very likely Cult Leader. And yes, on day 1 you actually should CL hunt; just a 50%chance of someone being Cult leader and 50% of being town Day 1 is a far superior option to someone with 33% chance of being CL/other cult/town.

So, like I said... very likely CL.(but in this case cultist instead)
But Math... everything we non-CL read Math for happened after this so it could have been staged. Need to look more when I have time.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

(To Not Known 15)

I am assuming that ProfessorDrapion was hedging. The past day phase suggests Elements was the cult leader. However, I believe there is as much evidence that Malakittens is the cult leader. As for you, I am starting to think that none of what I am seeing from you is just an act, which was really the last thing that was making me consider you as the cult leader.

This leaves just Malakittens and Elements. Do you have anything to suggest that Malakittens isn't the cult leader?

VOTE: Malakittens

[Gamma Emerald]

For me CL I’d between Elements, Mala, and NK15

[Not Known 15]

Ok, no. Drapion was pushing Math too much, including at E-1. Way too much risk if Math was CL.
So it's now indeed between Mala and Elements

That's what Math says about Mala.

Roden and Malakittens are the only viable suspects that meet all the criteria from Drapions play. However I find the soft defenses of Drapion much more compelling as a CL candidate..

MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely

This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.

I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.

However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.

Possible CL pool to me

As I said will move on but I really think Roden is cult here

and this.


Contrasting, elements...

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

OR Math was converted and Elements is scum. This is coming after Math pushing Elements Day 1, and saying (Day 1):

180 is how I form reads

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

That's a BS reading of this. If (TOWN) flips wolf then (SCUMPARTNER) is town is a classic move to drive attention away from (SCUMPARTNER) for a day, making them survive more(which can be absolutely critical if that scumpartner is CL!), and that assumes that Gamma does go down. It's early day stuff.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

This was part of the stuff why Math is scum - their "logic" makes no sense at all, first saying "probably no convert", then "Bad vibes but probably not CL", and then continuing pushing Roden backed by the now obsolete argument "probably no convert". That is stitched together instead of natural progression.
And that also means that "bad vibes but probably not CL" is a defense, and guess why.

Now I am going to do votecount analysis.

[Not Known 15]

Hmmmmmmmmm votecounts.

VOTE: frederick e campbell
ok this is actually scum
mala vote is cheap, sus on me is cheap too

Makes me think math could be CL

Yeah honestly I can see it from how Math has went about me and how he brought up Gamma, and the town read, plus indirectly trying to get players to vote for me.

Yeah that could actually be CL and Gamma is trying to save it.
Yeah I hope this flips CL so I can just bury Gamma tomorrow.

VOTE: MathBlade

Was this planned? Is this SvS? Let me think about this a bit.

[Not Known 15]

(This is the E-1 vote on Math; the previous Math vote was E-2 from Elements. So this is either a power move or my theory about Math is wrong.

[MegAzumarill]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.

See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1

Looked at it. That is a playstyle clash with a bit of tunnelling on Math's part. An 1v1 with tunnely behaviour is not the same as pushing multiple BS reads(their scumreads, and the Elements townread).

I suppose it's different but I don't really fully understand your case on Math here

I think there's a fairly compelling case as to why Math was probably not converted last night

(Looking a little ahead I do see how a recruit!Math last night could tie into Elements!CL by poe now)

[MegAzumarill]

Hmmmmmmmmm votecounts.

VOTE: frederick e campbell
ok this is actually scum
mala vote is cheap, sus on me is cheap too

Makes me think math could be CL

Yeah honestly I can see it from how Math has went about me and how he brought up Gamma, and the town read, plus indirectly trying to get players to vote for me.

Yeah that could actually be CL and Gamma is trying to save it.
Yeah I hope this flips CL so I can just bury Gamma tomorrow.

VOTE: MathBlade

Was this planned? Is this SvS? Let me think about this a bit.

I would highly doubt it

[MathBlade]

Comments in bold and in-line because mobile.
Bold italics is NK15 original bold text

We all can say with confidence that Mathblade isn't CL.
So Mathblade was Town Day 1.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is " I think X but". We saw this on Drapion, who flipped Cult.

While factually correct, I find this misleading. I form hypothesis and test them. My prior hypothesis were wrong, so I go back and retest them.

Premise 1: I am town.
Premise 2: I was not converted.
Premise 3: Either A) I was targeted for conversion and failed or b) wasn’t targeted.
Premise 4: If premise three B is true If I wasn’t targeted for conversion (option B) then there is likely some other threat more important. Therefore Elements is not likely CL.
Premise 5: If premise three A) then reads were correct.

Conclusion: Since I was wrong about prior reads and reevaluating it is unlikely I would be culted. So it’s much more likely Elements is not CL.

This is how I operate. What’s meant by that if is a way of backpedaling. My if->then statements are not structured as such. Ergo your statement is correct but misleading.

Yeah honestly I think our objective here is to figure out who the CL is and make sure they are executed today.
Also make sure to remember that the second cult member might try and save their CL today cause if they don’t they would have a low chance of winning.

My suggestion is to make sure if your town reading someone not to blindly sheep their town reads (I never do) but cause like they could be the second cultist trying to make their CL look good so make sure you have valid reasons for each of your Townreads.

This read way too honest for me. This reads to me like Drapion had a plan to be TR’d early and Drapion is one of those too honest scum that doesn’t know yet how to highlight which points of scum to highlight and which not. This makes me think that Drapion will have never voted the cult leader.

Yeah no. That assessment is actually made out of thin air. All rests on the unsubstantiated "Drapion is one of those too honest scum"; and even if it was honest it might have been something Drapion wanted to

avoid doing

because they knew it.

It is not out of “thin air”. It’s made up three criteria. 1) My extensive experience in scum and seeing how people play scum differently. A moderately/experienced scum will use truth as a weapon. A newer scum tends to try to “mimick” town play. In other words a new scum makes it about avoiding elim but a moderate/experienced player makes it about controlling gamestate and emotions. 2) The meta of Drapion is that he’s more on the abrasive/literal side. This again means that directly lies would not be in his wheelhouse. 3) Based on combining 1 and 2 Drapion being a traditionally honest player means that somewhere is likely too honest. That paragraph stood out to me as that point reading it by tone.

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

This is some next level BS because this rests on "there was a bus" which we have no credible evidence for. It took a lot for Drapion to be limmed.
The "elements is town" case is, again, made out of thin air.

Fun fact when I get off work, I can expand on this in more depth but it is very likely (based on statistics) 1-2 scum are on the Drapion wagon. Is it absolutely certain, no, but towns work with the most probable thing to win.

Yes.
One of my voters are definitely a cult and I think it’s Math.

This very much reads to me like Drapion’s CL had the intention of converting me and then driving that bus into the ground. Let’s look at the prior post Drapion had.

Why would Math assume that the CL would try to convert them? Maybe because it succeeded?

You’re welcome to make that assumption but I think if you take a step back and keep up with the thread you’ll find it very wrong. I have played in plenty a cult and scum game. Starting from what we know, everything after the hammer from Malakittens is wine. It was all deliberate rapid fire. It’s designed to make us look off wagon so we absolutely should look exactly where Drapion said to.

Now comes the question of who Roden would convert.

If they tried me and failed they would know they would need to buddy me. Especially if they think I am the inconvertible Townie.

This really matches his open and why I wanted to back off and give space to see if someone else was a convert target.

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

VOTE: Roden

This is again, Math's scum bullshit mode meta.
This rests on the assumption that Roden failed to convert(something that is not likely from the position of a VT). It also rests on "no one else has been converted".

And I believe I have established the reasons for those premises reading in combination and between the lines of what has been said. I strongly believe I wasn’t converted. Either because I lied and I am not VT or because I believe someone else was or I believe in a certain PR world. I don’t care to elaborate which as this is scum’s problem to keep up with.

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

The one exception is maybe Frederick because imho that PoE is terrible.

Backed up by exactly nothing.

My PoE of who could and could not be cult leader was available and combining that with the PoE demonstrates that. This is a lie.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

We have to remove the CL. So this is a soft defense of Elements.
That isn't the only telling thing though, here!
Remember what Math said before?

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

But if that thing would give them a bad vibe, and element isn't CL, they could be the convert, right?
However, Mathblade never backs down from that theory:

Admittedly I do tunnel at times but it’s because a foundational premise isn’t being answered. Everyone does this it’s a matter of how concrete they are with their premises. If a prior premise is proven false (Eg with Drapion flipping scum) then I look at two things

1) Where was I wrong
2) What actions would scum take.

Having lost a member they would need to ensure a recruit.

Therefore if the CL was widely TRd they’d hit a lurker or someone who is destructive but expendable. I fit the second criteria with reads wrong.

If the CL was not widely TRd then they would need a mid tier town for support. 1) to avoid a Jailkeep if it exists and 2) to give enough support.

So that’s why I think Roden as a CL works

I also think by play you’re an excellent CL as you’re really not reading some posts in depth with a Townie mindset.I need to reread why I excluded you from CL and Roden convert.

I didn't take back a read on you. Like there's nothing else to say here, what you're seeing here is a completely foreign interpretation of what actually happened.

What I'm understanding is that because I didn't unvote Hutmeil after you replaced in, you think that I scum read you as well. If that's the case, that's something I can understand. If not, I don't know what to say, I can't argue with something that I know didn't happen.

Repeating this repeatedly is toxic af to the game

I will just go after you tomorrow when we don’t flip the CL today because we cant

Well, that was not what I was expecting....
but Mathblade has spewed themselves as the convert... and Elements as Cult Leader.
Every time Mathblade said loads of massive BS it was when scum-pushing someone, with one exception. Elements.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is also telling us that Elements is Mathblade's CL: Math is trying to establish a thought progression here, but on Day 1 Math said:

180 is how I form reads

Scum rarely if ever do relational reads or feel where the vibes are

So I make hypothesis and test them

I was evidently wrong on that one post (458) coming from town.
VOTE: Elements

[MathBlade]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

I really don’t like this very empty post from Roden.

They’re a wall poster.

My eyes aren’t crying from the amount of words then it pings me.

[MathBlade]

Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)

Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.

I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.

I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.

Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.

I like to play town to give scum no good options.

I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.

If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.

[MathBlade]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.

See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1

Looked at it. That is a playstyle clash with a bit of tunnelling on Math's part. An 1v1 with tunnely behaviour is not the same as pushing multiple BS reads(their scumreads, and the Elements townread).

You said I am town on D1. I know I was town and still am town.

Therefore on D1 I was not pushing BS reads. They may be horribly explained or if you find a flaw illogical but not BS reads. Therefore the playstyle clash d1 being because of BS reads or same style demonstrates I am town no?

[MathBlade]

This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.

I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.

Rest I haven’t read

This is a scummy post.

how?

Me:Scumcase against Math,pointing to Elements as scum, too.
Math:"I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed "
Does this look like a town reaction to you?

To me, yes.

It finds your premise, “Math is the recruit and therefore Elements is CL” and addresses “Math is the recruit premise”

You’re more than welcome to argue that Elements is the CL if you wish to do so in a logical manner.

I don’t tell people to think a certain way. I present my evidence and why I think the way I do.

I know the premise I am the recruit is factually wrong so I started there so you (if town) can adjust perspective and see if you reach the same or different criteria based on that changing.

[MegAzumarill]

Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)

Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.

I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.

I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.

Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.

I like to play town to give scum no good options.

I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.

If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.

1. Why would Jailkeeper have crumbed targets? I don't see any reason why they would.
2. I don't think the people on the wagon are likely to be aligned with Drapion (maybe NK15, but I do think thwir recent push on you is coming from town.) Shooting with the intention to hit cultist is basically all WIFOM
3. Scum is incentivised to not recruit you regardless
4. I feel like my PoE is still correct for CL.


Looking to hear why you think we should be limming on wagon though

[MathBlade]

Ok, no. Drapion was pushing Math too much, including at E-1. Way too much risk if Math was CL.
So it's now indeed between Mala and Elements

That's what Math says about Mala.

Roden and Malakittens are the only viable suspects that meet all the criteria from Drapions play. However I find the soft defenses of Drapion much more compelling as a CL candidate..

MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely

This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.

I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.

However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.

Possible CL pool to me

As I said will move on but I really think Roden is cult here

and this.


Contrasting, elements...

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

OR Math was converted and Elements is scum. This is coming after Math pushing Elements Day 1, and saying (Day 1):

180 is how I form reads

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

That's a BS reading of this. If (TOWN) flips wolf then (SCUMPARTNER) is town is a classic move to drive attention away from (SCUMPARTNER) for a day, making them survive more(which can be absolutely critical if that scumpartner is CL!), and that assumes that Gamma does go down. It's early day stuff.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

This was part of the stuff why Math is scum - their "logic" makes no sense at all, first saying "probably no convert", then "Bad vibes but probably not CL", and then continuing pushing Roden backed by the now obsolete argument "probably no convert". That is stitched together instead of natural progression.
And that also means that "bad vibes but probably not CL" is a defense, and guess why.

Now I am going to do votecount analysis.

I am not even seeing your premises to address them

Elements made a good CL based on vibes.

I see the entire game disagreeing with me in the exact same manner as D1

Hence me being blah about it and disconnected.

[MathBlade]

Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)

Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.

I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.

I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.

Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.

I like to play town to give scum no good options.

I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.

If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.

1. Why would Jailkeeper have crumbed targets? I don't see any reason why they would.
2. I don't think the people on the wagon are likely to be aligned with Drapion (maybe NK15, but I do think thwir recent push on you is coming from town.) Shooting with the intention to hit cultist is basically all WIFOM
3. Scum is incentivised to not recruit you regardless
4. I feel like my PoE is still correct for CL.


Looking to hear why you think we should be limming on wagon though

1. I think it’s more habit or accidental than anything else. But maybe I am wrong *shrug* it’s how I read things. Maybe I need reading glasses or something.

2. I think the majority are town (factually true because even if CL on convert on 3>2 or equal if you don’t count Mala) but I don’t think it’s exclusively off wagon as that makes for an incredibly hard D2 with forced bussing and increased scrutiny on the CL. With a shitty D1, I don’t think scum sign up for a double or nothing.

3. I disagree with this premise for reasons stated. Please explain.

4. Okay how did you get there? I don’t see how.

[MathBlade]

Back to work for me but will check later tonight