Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[MegAzumarill]

For 3 First:
Ok think about CL's Perspective end of day 1. They know the following: 1. You (Math) are a Vanilla Townie. 2. A Cop or Jailkeeper can exist. 3. If they are targeted by either they either straight up lose or almost lose.

If Cop targets CL, CL loses in every scenario they don't recruit the cop. Recruiting jailkeeper provides an enormous boon to cult, potentially protecting both members with a fakeclaim.

Why then would you forfeit the chance to avoid an autoloss by recruiting a VT when, say, you could instead recruit someone like Gamma, Roden, NK15 or me that all were fairly townread (or spewed by and not claimed?

I feel there's plenty of options that are objectively better than recruiting you. The only reason I could see it would be WIFOM, but that's probably too dangerous of a gamble for CL to make.

[MegAzumarill]

Tldr why would they recruit a vt claim
thats dumb

[MegAzumarill]

As for 4:
Roden: The most major factor in the drapion lim actually going through imo. Unnecessary for him to do as CL.
You: Drapion E-1'd you with clear intent to kill. They much prefer their own lim over yours if they are cl.
Gamma: Obvious tunnel by drapion on cl feels incredibly unlikely. Possibly recruit, but almost certainly not CL.
Nk15: This is still POE technically, but would have been a harder buss to pull off if it was one. I have started liking their content as the game went on leaving me comfortable with leaving them out of POE.
Meg: wait thats me
Rest are in POE

[MegAzumarill]

If CL is not in Mala/Elements/Fred I'd be surprised
If CL is not in them + NK15 I'd be legitimately shocked

[MegAzumarill]

And although I've hinted at it I don't want to disclose much on my thoughts on recruits till tomorrow. Tomorrow we get to shoot at most likely scum

[Roden]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

[Elements]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

VOTE: Malakittens
Guess it's betten me and mala now then

[Elements]

So when I flip town where are all your minds going to be at?

[Elements]

I think Fred is CL and has recruited either Rodan or 15

[MegAzumarill]

Elements you should claim

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

What is your NK15 meta?

[Malakittens]

Kill
Elly yet??

[Roden]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

What is your NK15 meta?

Basically, my experience has been that he has a really hard time faking conviction. So if you can tell that he believes in what he's saying, then you know that he's town. It isn't that he's a bad liar as scum, he's just so transparently earnest when he's solving as town.

[MathBlade]

Tldr why would they recruit a vt claim
thats dumb

I think you and I prioritize the cult and scum differently.

You’re thinking in terms of threat/survival instead of long term play.

I think cult would go “Sure it’s great if we hit cop/JK” (if they exist) but it’s more important to get a recruit off especially if CL isn’t suspected.

Hitting cop/JK is more a priority before mass claim.

Also cop/JK (but not inconvertible Townie) can self elim at e-1 to confirm results and sink scum.

If cop/JK hasn’t flipped they’re almost required.

[MathBlade]

As for 4:
Roden: The most major factor in the drapion lim actually going through imo. Unnecessary for him to do as CL.
You: Drapion E-1'd you with clear intent to kill. They much prefer their own lim over yours if they are cl.
Gamma: Obvious tunnel by drapion on cl feels incredibly unlikely. Possibly recruit, but almost certainly not CL.
Nk15: This is still POE technically, but would have been a harder buss to pull off if it was one. I have started liking their content as the game went on leaving me comfortable with leaving them out of POE.
Meg: wait thats me
Rest are in POE

I disagree Roden as being influential there at all.

They’re way too quiet for my tastes and do a lot more readwalls and active pushes.

[MathBlade]

He’s*

Sorry for misgendering

[Gamma Emerald]

why would JK self-elim, at least with CL alive
or a cop with a clear for that matter

JK could still stop a recruit action, and if the cop has a clear selfing would just get the clear recruited

[MathBlade]

why would JK self-elim, at least with CL alive
or a cop with a clear for that matter

JK could still stop a recruit action, and if the cop has a clear selfing would just get the clear recruited

The above assumes CL dead

If we don’t have CL dead at e-1 then more than likely cop/JK was recruited and it’s useless. I should have been explicit with that assumption.

It’s more that at e-1 town will have 6 alive with 2 cult alive
Or
At e-1 is 4 alive with 1 cult left

For the 6 alive case we have N1 (8 alive) N2 (7 alive) n3 (6 alive) then D4

So cop/JK will have 3 results. 6 alive. Unless we coincidentally elimmed a lot of those checks we will be in a good place.

Even more checks on the 4 alive version.

[MathBlade]

Here’s a hypothetical example with the top six players in the player list to make things easier to follow and not dependent on reads

MegAzumarill - JK
Malakittens — Cult
Roden — Cult
MathBlade hutmeil town
Elements town
Fred town

Gamma town and NK15 cult leader in this example and are dead.

Meg the JK on N1 decides to jail I dunno me just to be random. NK15 recruits Roden.
D2 we elim Gamma flips town. Jailkeeps elements. NK15 recruits Mala.
Then N2 jails NK15. No recruit.
D3 NK15 is elimmed. Flips cult leader.

At that point Meg the jailkeeper because the game isn’t over that 1-2 of the converts were a success.

If assuming two converts it is therefore elo. Then both of her jailkeeps are innos.

If it is not elo then one of the two attempts to convert were also stopping things which makes them de facto innos.

So likely than not elements and myself would be town in that world.

[MathBlade]

Jailkeep innos become stronger the longer a cult leader is alive weirdly enough

Cop innos become stronger if we get the CL sooner

Granted I hope the CL gets elimmed sooner but I think we don’t have the elim pool for that.

[MathBlade]

If we can get the CL today and unconverted cop
Then N1 check
D2 elim CL
N2 check
D3 cop claims with results as scum can do Jack all — 7 alive. 2 known results. Max one cult. Outs N1 and N2 results. If any scum then last scum is in cop claim and guilty GG. Otherwise we are at 2 conf town and cop + 3 other town remaining. Elim in 3, check another

Next day is two conf town remaining cop and two others. Cop if gets guilty it’s GG elim one or the other. So cop provides an inno. Elim the other remaining Townie.

If game continues 2 confirmed town and cop and one other. Cop is going to say a guilty. Elim cop elim other

Two Townies remain.

So if we get CL today cop is instant win even if cop is converted.

JK works similar but loads more complicated.

[MegAzumarill]

If we can get the CL today and unconverted cop
Then N1 check
D2 elim CL
N2 check
D3 cop claims with results as scum can do Jack all — 7 alive. 2 known results. Max one cult. Outs N1 and N2 results. If any scum then last scum is in cop claim and guilty GG. Otherwise we are at 2 conf town and cop + 3 other town remaining. Elim in 3, check another

Next day is two conf town remaining cop and two others. Cop if gets guilty it’s GG elim one or the other. So cop provides an inno. Elim the other remaining Townie.

If game continues 2 confirmed town and cop and one other. Cop is going to say a guilty. Elim cop elim other

Two Townies remain.

So if we get CL today cop is instant win even if cop is converted.

JK works similar but loads more complicated.

I think CL never gets eliminated if they convert cop because the two can coordinate a safeclaim for them. (I.e. both claim unrecr townies) but w/e

I think I am fine with an Elements lim here so ima

Intent to hammer

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Well, I have read (past tense) up to about post 566. So far, my views have been approximately the same as when I made my last post.

[Elements]

VT

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Malakittens
I got a very bad feeling about limming Elements atm.