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I scum read the tone on Black's entrance like some other people did but her response to her wagon and to me in particular has solidified that read a lot.
In post 28, Black wrote:
Generic trying to read and solve already is probably a good sign?
Some people had a bad reaction to this, for good reason. It's a read that apologizes for itself. When people roll mafia they can often enter a game with a bit of a sense of subconscious guilt. The red role PM weighs on their conscience. It might seem ridiculous to read this much into a "probably" and a "?," but combined with the fact that Black seems like a fairly confident player, I think it betrays someone who is (whether consciously or subconsciously) a little worried that throwing out a read like that is going to be viewed negatively by the other players in the game.
No, Black writing their post like that is a product of their posting habits, not their alignment. I played a game where they were town and they said "probably" numerous times there:
In post 425, Titus wrote:
Reads. Solid positions, like the last few times I have asked.
Whyaremyreadsnotgoodenough? If it's because the positions aren't solid enough then you're going to have to deal with it because I'm rarely going to be confident enough in my reads to take solid stances in the first 24 hours of a game. If it's because you don't agree with the reads then we can discuss why and figure out where the disconnect is
Here are my most solid positions even though I wouldn't trust myself standing on these:
Dunn is probably my top TR. Originally I was a little skeptical of his entrance but I think his responses to pressure have been really good
Fey was also someone I was unsure about early because the way they danced around the massclaim and the slight overreaction to FB voting for Dunn. However I think Fey vs. FB looks a little TvT looking back over it and I lean town on them
Which means I also lean town on FB
I think Dragon has been pretty townie too. Add my name to the list
I liked FA's entrance and her thoughts felt like they were coming from a genuine solvey place, however I started to doubt that after reading some of what Klick put down about her. Klick has a couple of good points about why he thinks FA is scummy here even if they aren't very strong. Like they seem like things that would make Klick sus of FA but not necessarily things that could get others onboard. FA's whole reaction to the Klick push was to discredit it and then jump on Dragon for following it and I feel like this could be interpreted as her going for an easier target
I lean town with Klick. I think his posting always gives me town vibes though so I'm cautious here
I'm not sure how I feel about Shea or Titus
I need to read over kuribo, GiF, and Drixx because I can't recall anything off the top of my head about these slots
I think Pink Ball and Blue are the two players that are the scummiest to me atm. These are weak reads but I don't like what I've seen from them so far
I wanted to give her time to respond to 705 but she has popped into the thread a few times while ignoring this. I don't think the answer is going to effect my thought process here. Even if Titus says she has a 100% correct guessrate on meta tells that will probably only make it worse for her
The conclusion of Titus' interrogation on me resulted in her thinking I'm definitely scum. It's a meta read based on how I start my games as town versus scum. The read itself is (kinda) explained in 671 though I do have issues with this post. I don't think the case is presented very well and I'm struggling to see what Titus is even really trying to point out here, but that's not all that important either
The natural result of this interrogation would be to vote me and try to convince others that I'm scum, but Titus has decided that's not worth her time. In 647 she says she doesn't have the energy to fight the thread over me. I find this odd because I'm pretty sure there's only one or two people that have slight townreads on me. The rest are either null or slight SRs. What is this huge fight that Titus is expecting to have here? It doesn't make sense to back down from a surefire scumread over some theoretical fight that she might encounter in order to convince the thread I'm scum. Usually a read with as much conviction as Titus' is accompanied by more than just waving a white flag before the fight even begins
I also find it really strange that FB was in the thread agreeing with Titus that I feel kinda scummy, yet Titus barely wanted to bounce off of him at all. FB says one of me or Shea is scum and it's probably me in 672 and Titus' response in 674 felt so weak... like "welp, here's my meta case". Then Titus actually argues against FB's meta read that town!Black probably wouldn't have strong positions early (677). If Titus really thinks I'm scum I can't see any reason for her not to engage with FB more here
The conclusion of the interrogation and Titus' actions don't align if she's playing from a town perspective. It all feels very inorganic. There's the possibility she's a townie that thinks she could be wrong, but then comments like 701 ("even if I can't get you eliminated today") and 707 ("in the rare event I'm wrong about Black") feel out of place in that type of mindset.
In post 1164, Black wrote:
I'm going to start with Fey which will probably bleed into FB since a lot of these two ISO's feel like their engaging with each other
spoiler=Fey ISO
Tl;dr - Fey is town. Also this ISO didn't bleed into FB's very much like I thought it would
In post 2232, Dunnstral wrote:
So if Kuribo and Ircher are both in a pt due to their amnesiac role, then they would indeed both be town, as mafia wouldn't have the role activated and wouldn't gain the pt.
Ok, I see. So theoretically the only way kuribo is scum here is if Ircher is scum too? There's probably something I'm missing here
In post 3360, Frozen Angel wrote:
I actually feel a bit alerted for how you guys got to the conclusions you did
I kinda understand this. At one point I did say that I was conftown but that was before I fully considered all angles of this. So I can see where you're coming from but I also think the "weirdness" of it can probably be explained by neither of us understanding the full scope of things
In post 3670, Dunnstral wrote:
OK that's not fair, Black is the one who outright claimed it. But still.
Tbf I hard claimed it after the details got leaked. I don't think it's that big of a deal. Worst case scenario is I die tonight but even if scum kill me, the role won't go away. I feel like there's probably ways they could mess with the results too via something like redirect or roleblock. The consequences here don't feel as bad as it would in a normal setup
In post 3741, Black wrote:
FB, what I find weird about your "I didn't understand scum couldn't use amnesiac roles" statement is that one of your main focuses D1 (especially early) seemed to be Fey. Well, Fey is the one that brought up this mechanic the most. They said it in 146 (you actually quoted this post), 516, 804, and probably more that I'm missing. I just find it hard to believe you and Ali both read over Fey's posts when you were casing them and didn't catch this mechanic
In post 4064, Thestatusquo wrote:
honestly black is doing a really good demonstration of why generalities arent scummy because that reaction to what I thought was a pretty substantive conversation would make me want to tunnel the crap out of you if I didn't think you're almost certainly town for mech reasons.
Ngl I didn't read it all. I'm sure there's substance in there but I tried reading some of it while I'm out and about and I just couldn't
In post 4452, Pink Ball wrote:
We at least need a pool on who you’re targeting in case you die tonight. If the caterer falls outside the pool, we get a reduced PoE of players
Then I probably wouldn't recommend limming Titus yet. I plan on catching up and solidifying my PoE tomorrow
In post 4512, Klick wrote:
'Isn't alignment indicative but it gives me bad vibes' and 'way more convinced in Klick!scum than Titus!scum' give off two really different vibes and feel weirdly dissonant
I don't think those things are dissonant at all. Both town and scum can go into survival mode but I think when talented, logical players do it, it reads a certain way. Like calm, but also desperate. Also, me being way more convinced that you are scum over Titus has much more to do with my read on your survivalism so there is no harmony intended with these two statements
What is your actual read on myself and on Titus?
I think you're probably scum, and Titus has been floating between null-town, null, and null-scum for most of the game. I'm having a very hard time reading here and I think I'd just rather outsource my read here tbh
As for the question mark, they ask a lot of questions but 28 does not really seem to be a question. Maybe there is something there.
Finally, I do not think that Black is a confident player.
In post 51, Aureal wrote:
CCGeek, how can you find T3's aggression possibly 'faux' but also agree with the point he made?
Oh right because you're scum.
You may be right here
VOTE: CCGeek
I think this progression too shows Black is feeling a little self-conscious to be the first one to put a read out there. If Black scum read's CCG's vote on her, why doesn't she vote him in 54? Instead, she waits until she's read and acknowledged Aureal's 51 that shades CCGeek to jump on the wagon. I think if Black had a pure and innocent heart and actually felt bad about CCG's vote she'd put a vote there without any hesitation.
I also think specifically calling out "putting me at e-2" is slightly scum indicative. It is consistently more likely for town players to not pay attention to where the votes are at when they throw down a vote. Scum players have to be very careful about how they are perceived and how the timing of votes might look later down the line. And while I don't think it is necessarily scum indicative for Black to *be aware* of how many votes she has accumulated, I do think it is scum indicative that she used that as a point against CCGeek, as if she found something objectively scummy with which to discredit his push with.
For the first part about whether Black would vote: maybe. I think you are assuming things about how Black would act and I think they can easily be town who hasn't voted here.
For the second part about Black pointing to the vote count, I disagree that this is scum indicative.
In post 60, CCGeek wrote:
Wait, the black wagon had 2 votes on it at the time?
In post 61, CCGeek wrote:
OH Clems voted for black, I somehow missed that
What difference does it make? Are you implying you wouldn't have voted for me had you known this?
Black even then later acts like it doesn't make a difference whether CCGeek meant to put her at E-2 or not, despite using the fact that CCGeek had put her to E-2 as a point of suspicion against CCGeek in post 54.
This doesn't read like someone who is genuinely trying to figure out CCGeek's alignment, it reads like someone trying to get CCGeek in a "Gotcha!"
This is a good point
In post 124, Dannflor wrote:
Anyway, I imagine Black is feeling like she's under a lot of pressure for not a lot of reason pretty early in this game. But, I think if she was town, she'd more interested in trying to determine the alignments of the people on her wagon. Instead, she seems more interested in discrediting all the votes on her. I think this is evident in her pushes on both CCGeek and myself.
Even her read on T3, she's like "oh it's towny because it's grasping for straws and just trying to start discussion," which discredits the actual read. The moment someone seriously scum reads her, she pushes back and discredits.
For one thing, I think it's weird she goes after me for a "perspective slip" despite CCGeek arguably doing the same thing by saying that Black is "tunneling" in 95, normally something you'd say to a person you think is town. It's for this reason that I don't really believe that she thinks I'm scum, or that she's genuinely trying to parse CCGeek's alignment.
In post 105, Dannflor wrote:
I don't think you are town, but I am not prideful enough to think my read on you is 100% on page 4
I'm sorry but I have a hard time believing 98 comes from someone that thinks I'm probably scum. You conveniently hopped on the wagon built by others and then spoke to me as if you were trying to convince me that CCG is town. If I'm your #1 suspect then it doesn't make sense for you to address me this way. I don't like this at all
You're either scum with CCG or CCG is town and you're playing us both
VOTE: Dannflor
As far as this post goes, it's just loaded with scum rhetoric.
I "conveniently hopped on the wagon built by others"? Okay. What does this actually mean about my alignment? What makes it convenient that I joined a pre-existing wagon? Why would a town player not do this?
I think "You're either scum with CCG or CCG is town and you're playing us both" doesn't make sense as a real town thought. I think at this point town!Black would have an idea in her head of which is more likely. She'd be constructing a world that makes my behavior and CCGeek's behavior make sense. Calling out two very different worlds (me and CCG as scum buddies and CCG as town) without really giving either one more credence than the other makes it seem like she isn't really considering each of these worlds and what they might mean. Instead, this feels like a rhetorical device to both discredit all the people on her wagon and make it seem more likely that I'm scum by offering up two different ways that I could be scum in this scenario.
I don't think Black actually believes that because I challenged her read on CCG, that means that I made a perspective slip that makes me scum. I think she feels like she has to push me in this way and if she were town I think there would be more of an attempt to see where I'm coming from.
There's not even an attempt really to build a coherent case against me. Instead, 108 is filled with a lot of statements that are supposed to make it seem more believable that I'm scum, with my "convenient hop on to a wagon built by others" thrown in there as if that makes sense as a reason for me to be scum "I don't like this at all" thrown in there to make the read seem more real, and "you're either scum with CCG or scum playing us both" thrown in there to make me seem more likely to be scum. I don't think any of these statements reveal that Black has genuinely thought about my alignment and what is most likely to be happening in this game.
I do think the false dilemma between you and CCG is something that is scum indicative.
I think the perspective slip stuff could be a real thought rather than scum motivated.
Post 108 seems weak from Black. I guess there is enough questionable points here to vote for them.
Post
Post #265 (isolation #4) » Wed Sep 20, 2023 2:48 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 204, Generic wrote:
And when I flip, and given black is Both a female on the internet and far better known and liked amongst you kids than I ever will be this thunderdome will be a blaze of glory for me, make sure you either yeet or town lock black based on what my alignment is. Seems fair. And I’m sure you are all intelligent enough to work out which alignment means which action
Post
Post #266 (isolation #5) » Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:02 am
Postby Dunnstral »
Generic's claim and the way they are pushing Black feels like town to me.
Going off of feeling so far, I liked Aureal's recent posting, along with Dannflor's pop-ins. T3 came to a conclusion I agree with in 236 but I am closer to neutral in my read of them right now as I don't feel that is enough.
I feel that CCGeek hasn't said much of anything beyond early banter
camelCasedSnivy I sort of like their recent posting, though I feel there is little to go off of as well
iamveryhappy also hasn't said much of anything beyond early banter, but doesn't seem to be busy like CCGeek
Post
Post #305 (isolation #7) » Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:51 am
Postby Dunnstral »
My motivation for my post was that I saw that Dann made a big post and wanted to respond to it. At the start of the post I disagreed with them but in a way where black was null and not town, near the end I started thinking there was enough to vote Black .
The lack of omgus towards Dann and myself gives me pause, and I do think T3's stance here is strange at least.
i don't know much of dunnstral's posting feels like he's waiting to see which way the thread is going to go
I feel like town!Dunnstral would have a new target in mind here to put pressure on
I think the reason he's backing off of Black is weird because... Black was already OMGUSing Generic, it's not like she can realistically or believable OMGUS all the people pushing her. it just feels a bit made up as a reason to back off of black. I kinda just think Dunnstral would have a better reason here
I wasn't talking about Generic, I was talking about Black's read on you and myself.
Post
Post #443 (isolation #14) » Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:02 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 432, Dannflor wrote:
Where is your head at with regards to this game dunnstral
iamveryhappy has really empty posts where they don't put forth a lot or comment on things. Their 427 does not make sense. I am not seeing a reason to not vote for them, so i will do so.
This seems like a fairly disingenuous way of phrasing things. IAVH wasn't complaining about being voted, he was complaining about being scumread and people calling for him to be voted.
Which was also not happening in the way they were saying, by the way.
In post 475, meowmeow wrote:
i'm not sure i understand - why does dann or one of his scumreads have to be scum? is this like related to how he read you compared to dunn? that seems like it would be it but idk where iavh fits into that
pedit: hm that's interesting i will look for that, i don't think i read that yet
no way all three of them are town pointing fingers at each other
In post 484, Abnegation wrote:
i could probably be sold on dunn or iavh, but currently my feeling towards those slots is more like "well, i don't
not
want to vote there."
also quite liking the wagon composition on dann.
Same tbh. I scumread Dannflor more than Dunn or IAVH, but I also think that it's fairly unlikely that Dunn or IAVH will ever town it up and they'll likely have to be limmed at some point. I still want Dannflor gone today though.
You said the same thing about Black and we are no longer voting for her. It is so scummy that you keep pushing things like this.
Post
Post #497 (isolation #21) » Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:08 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
I just think what they are saying is contradictory.
They voted me because they did not like my vote, but their reasoning is that I have less thoughts. It doesn't seem to add up with the timing of their vote. Also they gave different reasoning in 476.
It seems that your reason for suspecting me is not consistent. Is it because IAVH/Dann have more thoughts than me, or is it because you don't like my push on IAVH? These are two very different, almost contradictory things.
Post
Post #612 (isolation #31) » Tue Sep 26, 2023 1:51 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 494 you said you voted for me because IAVH and Dann had more thoughts than me. In post 592 you said you voted for me because you didn't like my push on IAVH. In post 608 you now claim you don't think my vote was town motivated.
Post
Post #622 (isolation #34) » Wed Sep 27, 2023 2:53 am
Postby Dunnstral »
I think Dannflor is just bullheaded. If they were mafia they wouldn't keep pushing me when they're at E-1 and I've been voting the other guy the whole time.
Post
Post #684 (isolation #38) » Wed Sep 27, 2023 1:18 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
I do not see iamveryhappy's lack of a stance here as towny, I think they reacted awkwardly to the position they were placed in. It seems they were waiting for momentum to shift one way or another, they never stated what they were thinking.
Post
Post #696 (isolation #39) » Wed Sep 27, 2023 6:59 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 694, iamveryhappy wrote:
ofc I wouldn't want to fade T3
I caught onto that soft and by the time I was available to hammer the CW I can't tell between Dann and Dunn I'm dumm kek
great I love being a wagoned
I find this hard to believe. I think you would have acted against Dannflor if you had really seen T3 soft Doctor early. Being confused by names doesn't really make sense; again, you had several days to decide on something.
In post 694, iamveryhappy wrote:
ofc I wouldn't want to fade T3
I caught onto that soft and by the time I was available to hammer the CW I can't tell between Dann and Dunn I'm dumm kek
great I love being a wagoned
I find this hard to believe. I think you would have acted against Dannflor if you had really seen T3 soft Doctor early. Being confused by names doesn't really make sense; again, you had several days to decide on something.
i mean i think iavh either did see the slot, or if he did lie about it he's probably equally likely to do so as town vs scum
on the other hand, the idea that he *did* go out of his way to excessively search for role crumbs is much more concerning to me
Post
Post #752 (isolation #42) » Thu Sep 28, 2023 6:45 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
The posts in 750 are me trying to pry info out of IAVH as they were being very cagey and not giving anything to work with, and they were a played I needed to consider as well.
I believe that IAVH is lying in post 694 and I think that makes them mafia.
when you roll scum, on average, how guilty is your conscience
I think I'd have to be able to roll scum more than once within memory to have an 'average'. :? But yeah, to belabor the point, it was more 'cunning glee' than 'guilt' for the most part. Which I now try to attain as town with ridiculous sneaky plans when opportunities arise. :shifty:
Post
Post #757 (isolation #44) » Fri Sep 29, 2023 12:10 am
Postby Dunnstral »
I posted 409 which responded to post 349. Six minutes later, I posted 410 which responded to 393. That post had a notification for me, because you quoted something that I had said. Clicking that notification also takes you to the post in question. So I went from post 349 to post 393. The post you quoted is 351, and is on a different page from either of those posts.
So look, clearly I couldn't have read that post in six minutes, not to mention all the posts in between. The six minutes was spent on post 410, mainly figuring out what you were accusing me of.
As of my post 510 which you criticize above, the most recent vote count at the time is 487. In the votecount, you can click on post links to go to where the votes were placed. The posts linked are the same posts I linked above; and indeed, there seems to be very little conversation about why you should be the elimination in those posts.
