Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[imaginality]

Hi folks! I'm on NZ time (UTC+13), most active in my late evening. Though not a frequent poster overall. With me you get quality over quantity. Albeit not necessarily

good

quality.

I'll read through the game now and probably post a couple of updates along the way.

UNVOTE: in case Celebloki was voting anyone

[imaginality]

Six pages in.

Townreading: Thomith, Mizuki, Kyuoko
Scumreading: Cobb, Puff

[imaginality]

Okay, caught up.

VOTE: Cobb

I like Elements' questioning of Puff in 32

Eh I think hypo might be viable if claiming target but not role/result

I think this makes quite a bit of sense, so long as you mean non-investigative PRs would also hypoclaim a target rather than their actual target. Otherwise scum might deduce who's doctor for example based on the choice of target.

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

Are you town reading them because of the setup talk? Those type of stuff are nai.

- A

This seemed a bit too quick to dismiss a reason for townreading people compared to asking for more specifics about why (as Thomith did in the very next post).

If Puff is scum this is +town for kyuoko and Mizuki.

--
On the statistics stuff from Cobb:
Clearly the stats are wrong, and not just a little bit. But I have a weird hunch that in a {Puff, Cobb} scenario this could have been a good way to get off the Puff wagon and cause a bunch of noise and pointless content. (For example 188 feels like it could be pure chaff.)

In the end everyone agrees the stats were wrong but the time and attention taken has meanwhile helped shift focus away from Puff and also makes it look like Cobb unvoted from mistaken logic rather than the timing of the unvote coming under more question.

Whether that theory has weight, given Puff was only at E-2 not E-1, I'm not sure. Like I say, more just gut feel (reinforced a little by Cobb's recent posts being quite thought out which makes the stats error a little less plausible).

---

it seems like it was over half the playerlist in the entire game that was questioning the slot (Me, Gamma Emerald, Cobblerfone, Elements, Mizuki, Kyouko) either directly on post 30, or on other things after it became clear that the Puff slot had gained a lot of attention. That definitely gives me vibes that Puff could very feasibly just be Town, and there was at least one Mafia jumping on that seemingly easy train of thought/suspicion.
Again this also makes me more tempted to read Elements as Town currently, as it did look like they were trying to avoid this happening, at least to me.

I agree with this gamestate as +town for Elements but don't see it as +town for Puff.

---
204 from Puff felt to me like times when as scum, I want to reward players who've switched from scumreading me to townreading me with a townread on them. It's not as active as buddying and not as deliberate as pocketing. More like HYDS (Hooray! You don't suck!) which is my newly coined term for the opposite of OMGUS.
---

Mizuki, I think of in terms of her tunnel on me. My gut gives me a slight town read because

I have a history of attracting misguided town tunnels.

-SNIP-
Could you expand a little on why you think you attract misguided town tunnels?

Honestly it's been long enough

I don't really remember. Even at the time I wasn't sure.

Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.

The first bolded sentence makes it sound like currently relevant as a justification for townreading Mizuki for scumreading you. The second bolded quote makes it sound like distant past. Which is it?

---

Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.

Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.

What do you think @kyouko

What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?

Over explainy first post. "Sleep now." "Post tomorrow"

Scum feels the need to over explain, especially in a scenario where they legit gotta go. Town would just be like "sup" and leave.

I feel like I got a similar vibe from shaddowez’s first post

Similar vibe to Puff (that the first post was scummy overexplainy) or similar to "town would just be like 'sup' and leave"?

[imaginality]

Readslist:

Yay!

Thomith
Elements
Mizuki
Kyouko
Gamma
Puff
Shadow
Cobb

Nay!

[imaginality]

Thomith's been asking good questions throughout and seems to be actually thinking about what people say.

Elements felt genuine to me when discussing their entrance and I agree that questioning people waiting around on Puff to answer felt like something scum wouldn't do.

Mizuki was my top town read early but there were one or two mistakes later which are probably genuine but just made me inch back from my earlier complete confidence.

Kyouko handled the pressure that came her way well, I thought

Gamma isn't a scum read but I did feel uncertain and want to watch more closely

Puff and Cobb I've mentioned. Shadow is there as kinda my alternative because if Puff and Cobb aren't scum together then my scumread on either of them individually weakens somewhat and then taking away my townreads that leaves Shadow down there.

[imaginality]

I did not like imaginality's catch up. The wallpost looked like the kind of post scum would make to fake a read and it looked like he was pairing Cobb's and me as scum buddies. Pairing 2 players as scum I consider it scum trying to setup chain mislim. The part where imaginality said where I was rewarding a town read made no sense to me.

- A

Only would be a chain mislim if Cobb (or you) are scum otherwise it fails as soon as one flips town. So are you saying you're sure Cobb is scum?

[imaginality]

Readslist:

Yay!

Thomith
Elements
Mizuki
Kyouko
Gamma
Puff
Shadow
Cobb

Nay!

On your wallpost you have talked about Cobbs and me and when I looked at your reads list here I see you put Shadow below me. What is it about Shadow you did not like and why did you not have anything to say about him?

- A

Wanting to wait to hear Gamma's response to my question about her Shadow comment first.

[imaginality]

I did not like imaginality's catch up. The wallpost looked like the kind of post scum would make to fake a read and it looked like he was pairing Cobb's and me as scum buddies. Pairing 2 players as scum I consider it scum trying to setup chain mislim. The part where imaginality said where I was rewarding a town read made no sense to me.

- A

Only would be a chain mislim if Cobb (or you) are scum otherwise it fails as soon as one flips town. So are you saying you're sure Cobb is scum?

And that wouldn't even be a chain mislim

I have trouble believing your take on my intentions is genuine

[imaginality]

I did not like imaginality's catch up. The wallpost looked like the kind of post scum would make to fake a read and it looked like he was pairing Cobb's and me as scum buddies. Pairing 2 players as scum I consider it scum trying to setup chain mislim. The part where imaginality said where I was rewarding a town read made no sense to me.

- A

Only would be a chain mislim if Cobb (or you) are scum otherwise it fails as soon as one flips town. So are you saying you're sure Cobb is scum?

Chain mislim means when it's a town flip. I don't know what Cobb will flip. I get pinged alot when I see someone pairs 2 people as scum when there hasn't been a scum flip yet.

- A

Maybe I misunderstood the term but if one of you flipped town it would make me significantly less likely to scumread the other (as it would remove one of the hunches behind the scum read).
I don't see why you would conclude otherwise from my post.

[imaginality]

Found it, the former

Thanks for clarifying. That makes three of us.

[imaginality]

I did not like imaginality's catch up. The wallpost looked like the kind of post scum would make to fake a read and it looked like he was pairing Cobb's and me as scum buddies. Pairing 2 players as scum I consider it scum trying to setup chain mislim. The part where imaginality said where I was rewarding a town read made no sense to me.

- A

Only would be a chain mislim if Cobb (or you) are scum otherwise it fails as soon as one flips town. So are you saying you're sure Cobb is scum?

This attempt at insinuating that Puff has knowledge they shouldn't feels like a stretch to me...

I couldn't see why they would think I'd be able to push to get one of them mislimmed D2 if the other flipped town D1. And so if Puff were town I assumed they were meaning I'd want to tie them to a Cobb scumflip. But I think I misunderstood what they meant

[imaginality]

I don't see why Enchant quickhammering implies a deep wolf but I definitely think it led scum to think Enchant is a PR (so, very nicely played, Enchant).

I don't want to vote until after hypoclaim but Puff and Gamma are also my main suspects (in reverse order to you, since Cobb flipping scum still fits my theory Cobb was deflecting attention away from Puff).

Hypoclaim: I do not have a hard guilty.

[imaginality]

Oh I misread re. the deepwolf point

[imaginality]

Hypoclaim: I roleblocked Elements

[imaginality]

From my point of view as town roleblocker, there's a 1/3 chance of the remaining scum being a 1 shot juggernaut. And I figured if you're a mafia juggernaut then last night seemed when you'd likely use that shot given you were under suspicion. So roleblocking you could've been a waste compared to roleblocking someone who didn't expect to be roleblocked.

As for why Elements specifically, my townread on Elements was based mainly on the vibes of how they discussed their entrance. Seemed like something I could be wrong on so I wanted to rule out the chance of them sneaking under my radar.

[imaginality]

I wasn't sure if imagi was true claiming or not.

If he was claiming I thought he wanted to clear a slot. In my head I was also thinking a town pr who is not getting wagoned shouldn't claim like that because it exposes them to scum and in past games I have seen players would claim town pr for no reason.

- A

I mean, I literally said "hypoclaim" in the very sentence I claimed my action, so this is ??

For the avoidance of confusion: my explanation is the truth of "how I chose my target" if my hypoclaim is true and I am a roleblocker, and the truth of "how I would have chosen my target if I were a roleblocker" if I'm not actually one.

I agree with kyouko that expecting everyone to justify hypoclaims in detail is probably a bad idea (and could be driven by scum wanting to see which of the claims is true). However I do think people should hypoclaim targets they might plausibly have targeted (or else again, it might be easier for scum to figure out which ones are false).

[imaginality]

Hypoclaims:

* Imaginality roleblocked Elements
* ssbm_Kyouko followed imaginality and saw him jailkeeping
* Thomith rolecopped Puffalicious and got a result of Vanilla
* Mizuki tracked Elements and saw them go nowhere
* Elements jailkept Mizuki
* Gamma Emerald roleblocked ssbm_Kyouko

@Puff, what's your hypoclaim?

[imaginality]

VOTE: Puffalicious

This isn't purely about Cobb's interactions with Puff. My Puff-specific reasons are:

- 81 as previously mentioned (seemed slightly eager to quickly dismiss Celeboki's townread on Kyouko and Mizuki)
- 204 as previously mentioned (anti-omgus)
- 376 seemed like deliberately fishing to see if my hypoclaim is true
- 386 implausible to have not realised that my "hypoclaim: I roleblocked Elements" was a hypoclaim
- I get a whiff of the "caught for the wrong reasons" with the complaints of being suspected D1 for interactions

That said, I'm interested to see what Kyouko comes back with about Gamma Emerald's meta.

I don't see myself limming anyone outside those two today:
- I took a look at Thomith, and initially he seemed plausible as a possible partner (rvs vote on Cobb, no other votes, casting bit of suspicion on me at a time I was pushing on Cobb) but 329 scumreading Cobb when Cobb was quite clearly under threat of being limmed is at least reasonably clearing, plus I feel like a scumbuddy would more likely have re-voted someone else by then rather than sitting there doing nothing votewise
- If someone on the wagon decided to bus Cobb and try to survive three lims and dodge the PRs, good luck to them, they deserve a ride to D3 for their chutzpah

[imaginality]

@Thomasina I don't see why Cobb feels the need to unvote Puff in 119 if Puff is town. Why not just stay on Puff there? Maybe you can argue it's NAI rather than my take of it pointing to them being aligned but I think it's a stretch to call Puff town because of it.

What did you think of my other points about Puff?

@kyouko you can see in the 'statistical reasons' comment in 101 that Cobb was already preparing to jump ship at a suitable time.

[imaginality]

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

What I do see here is a potential Follower crumb and since Cobbler claimed Follower, I could see scum thinking there is a follower in the setup and trying to draw a future counterclaim out of them with this plan. It's a common enough expression, but worth noting as a potential crumb I think.

Did you misread Celeboki as Cobblerfone?
I'm Celebloki's replacement, and this is not helpful speculation.

[imaginality]

Feels like maybe you missed Cobbler's claim which is maybe a little yikes

I know Cobbler claimed Follower. Your post was talking about a crumb and quoted my predecessor whose name also begins with C. I think it was pretty reasonable of me to ask what you were talking about.

[imaginality]

@Thomasina I don't see why Cobb feels the need to unvote Puff in 119 if Puff is town. Why not just stay on Puff there? Maybe you can argue it's NAI rather than my take of it pointing to them being aligned but I think it's a stretch to call Puff town because of it.

What did you think of my other points about Puff?

@kyouko you can see in the 'statistical reasons' comment in 101 that Cobb was already preparing to jump ship at a suitable time.

If I'm honest I genuinely think you could be tunelled on Puff, the same way I think Puff is tunelled on you.

It's possible. I have been known to tunnel a bit. I do think the timing of Puff arguing today that I was bussing fits with scum!Puff wanting to attack and weaken the voice the person scumreading them most. But I mean, it's true I (or anyone) could be bussing, though I still would argue it was a bad plan to bus so it's still less likely scum did than if it was clearly advantageous. [For example if they'd had a strong read on who the invesitgative PR is.]


I could go for Gamma today, the point in 437 about Gamma's D1 reads on Cobb is reasonable.

I'm still strongly disinclined to go for anyone outside Puff or Gamma today though. I think you're letting wifom get to you a bit.

[imaginality]

VOTE: Gamma E-1

[imaginality]

With both Gamma and me at E-1 I don't plan on claiming unless someone declares intent to hammer me.

I'm frankly pretty surprised to be E-1. The logic seems to be "if imaginality is scum then here's why he did the things he did" without considering "if imaginality is town, would he also have had good reason to do the things he did?" Like I said earlier, I wouldn't want anyone hard-clearing me for pushing the Cobb wagon hard but neither do I think it's a reason to scum read me.

[imaginality]

One thing that did interest me though was when someone said (not sure who, will check) that maybe the Cobb lim went through faster than I expected so I couldn't unvote my buddy in time. Which makes me want to check back and see if that is a possible scenario for anyone else on the wagon to have been in.

[imaginality]

Cobb was at E-3
Mizuki voted post 303
Elements "tempted to E-1" 328
Mizuki posted, kyouko told Elements to put Cobb E-1
Elements voted Cobb 343
Mizuki called for Cobb to claim 353
Cobb claimed 354
Enchant hammered 355

Kyouko didn't post while Cobb was at E-1, but did call for the E-1 vote and if scum were planning to fakeclaim Follower it's definitely a foreseeable possibility that the fakeclaim would be followed by the real PR hammering. Plus in any case the discussion of Enchant's propensity to quickhammer had happened by then.

So I don’t think anyone on the wagon was caught by surprise and unable to hop off. Especially given there was half a day between 353 and 354.

So I'm back to thinking remaining scum is more likely in {Puff, Gamma} with a side chance of Thomith.

Of note Puff and Thomith were trying to get a counterwagon on me going, and then Gamma voted Enchant. I think Gamma as scum there, deciding not to bus Cobb, would be much likelier to jump onto my wagon which was at E-2 at that point. Voting Enchant seems too neutral in that position?

So:

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald

I think I'm back to Puff.

VOTE: Puffalicious

[imaginality]

@Thomith yes that was the post I was thinking of

[imaginality]

@Thomith You didn't vote me, you didn't vote Cobb either though.

Cobb was E-2 at that point. I think it's possible to imagine you, if scum, not wanting to look back on a likely Cobb scumflip but hoping others will pick up on the encouragement to join my wagon.

Cobb and Puff were already on me at that point. If one more person had joined I could see you (if scum) following up 329 by voting me to E-1. Meanwhile if (as actually happened) Cobb goes through you don't look as bad as if you'd been more loudly on a counter wagon.

[imaginality]

On day 1 it looked like Cobb was more likely going to go over and I don't understand how you thought you had a likely chance on going over on day 1 because Kyouko and Mizuki both said they liked your catch up. I remember Thomith said something about you being wary of you and he said he was scum reading Cobb more.

- A

Cobb was on me
You were on me
If one more person had voted me (Elements say)
Thomith votes me (already expressing suspicion of me)
Enchant hammers because lol Enchant

Do I think I was likelier than Cobb at that point in time? No

Do I think it wouldn't have taken much for my counterwagon to go through? Yes

[imaginality]

I actually don't think this works, I forgot to consider if scum have a strongman that held their shot last Night

I'm interested to hear what it was anyhow, even if it's no longer as dazzly.

I think with scum apparently thinking Enchant was a PR it's not implausible they might have used their strongman shot if they have one.

[imaginality]

Sorry to put you on the spot here Thomith but I need to know, do scum have a strongman that held their shot last night?

??

[imaginality]

I'd be up for this again.

I was at work and have only skimmed the mech discussion today since I saw the game's already ended. Must have made sense since it got Gamma to concede so nice work.

I was hoping to draw an NK with my comment about not claiming. Drew the day kill instead lol. All good though. Happy I was on scum D1 and right about the buddy being off wagon.

Thanks for modding, Alianna!