Open 897 - Cop 17er [DAY 6]

[davesaz]

I probably don't want to read 49 pages. Any Cliff notes available?

[davesaz]

i am in fact a time lord

Are you Steve? I know a Steve who calls himself time lord.

[davesaz]

Forum mafia players when they find out young people don't use forums

:/
My first time using a forum was when I was 14

If you call a BBS a forum, I was in my late teens/early 20s when forums were invented.

[davesaz]

Maybe I don't have to read, there is a lot of interesting stuff quoted in the last 2-3 pages.

I don't think I've ever seen Gob post a read list. This could be an incorrect memory though, as I am susceptible to seeing / not seeing what I expect or don't expect.
Not having reasons for most of it would match, so what I'd mainly be interested in is why a list here where other times it's one liner comments which also don't say anything.

[davesaz]

I can only do that hilight and quote thing on desktop. Don't have the knack for doing it without a mouse.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus

To have a

wagon

.

[davesaz]

Using the word solve on d1 sounds pretty sus.

[davesaz]

RCE and Ari have exact opposite stances on me. Wacky!

I read them both and don't see them as opposites. Can you point out which opinions you think are opposed?

[davesaz]

Ah, the tell they're trying to use is something to look for, but there isn't enough quantity here for it to be relevant yet. I looked for that specifically upon replacing in.

[davesaz]

Oh, and the reason I didn't grasp RCE's position is that I tried to get it from just ISO and a couple posts were too conversational to use that method.
Yeah, I know it's a weakness to try to use that shortcut. I've tried efforting catchups before and got lots of flack without much benefit, so trying to see if going organic will do better.

[davesaz]

Using the word solve on d1 sounds pretty sus.

Do you have any reads

You town, Titus scum.

[davesaz]

I think yessiree is acting. No meta so don't know if this is usual or not, but it's definitely feeling like a persona.

[davesaz]

How is Hu Tao only having ~5 posts per RL day? I think that probably warrants an iso dive.

[davesaz]

I don’t really get what you’re saying

Both of those positions (Ari and RCE) are weak, because the amount of material they're looking at is too small.
What's your interest in this? Trying to learn how to not scumtell?

[davesaz]

If what you didn't understand was the 2nd post, that was me explaining that I didn't see what RCE's point was because I used ISO. I thought that was crystal clear...

[davesaz]

Different kind of strong/weak. The foundation of trying to read you that way was weak at that point of the game.
This isn't saying anything about whether they stated it with (over) confidence. Hedging would be saying they're not sure of it, and I didn't look at that aspect, on how strongly they stated it.

Pedit: saying it that way helps me, thanks.

[davesaz]

You didn't actually say you thought one of them was scum using a warped case. I don't doubt that you thought you said that.

[davesaz]

Gamma is likely town.

[davesaz]

The two leading wagons being on people who are afk feels significant

Are they both really afk? Titus is but yessiree posted a fair amount the last 24 hours.

[davesaz]

Not saying anything relevant is a scumcase. You probably want to fix this problem.

[davesaz]

I'm not.

[davesaz]

I don't think anyone's even acknowledged my vote, or Bella's presence in the game so far

Maybe you were too furtive.

[davesaz]

More Hu Tao reads

I have a list of reads. I'll share them soon. As in tomorrow or day after.

Why are you waiting? Drop the list yo

I'm trying something new

Doing absolutely nothing and daring everyone to scum read you for it.

[davesaz]

Why all the sudden pedits when I'm trying to type on tablet.

[davesaz]

Let's call Hu's bluff.

[davesaz]

Back at computer, I'm semi-serious. It pisses me off a bit that in most games I make a single non-committal post and half a dozen people scumread me for not being decisive. Saying nothing, and on top of that admitting to it, deserves a yeet.

[davesaz]

Hu Tao is basically saying nothing and daring anyone to scum case her. That bugs me.

[davesaz]

I got excited to have a whole page to read, and then it was one post from Firebringer surrounded by a bunch of chatter.

[davesaz]

I don't like how Aristeia gets a free pass. Similar to the free pass that Hu Tao gets.

[davesaz]

It's my non-judgmental personality.

[davesaz]

what I don't like how there is a focus by dave to only go after inactive slots

Incorrect. Aristeia isn't inactive, and technically Hu Tao isn't either. Mysteriously easy townreads is what I'm poking at.

[davesaz]

I feel for Titus's RL, and inactivity is not the reason for scumreading her.
It's something missing that I'd expect to see from town her, in other words meta.

[davesaz]

Theta Alpine is difficult to read linguistically but I can distill enough for a town lean.

[davesaz]

In case you're wondering, moderate post volume is easier to skim and catch up. No way I'll ever have enough time or motivation to closely read someone with a couple hundred.

[davesaz]

Very few things on d1, or more generally before the first scum flip, are worthy of an actual case.
Most of the time we make stuff up to see whether the target goes batshit crazy or not.

[davesaz]

RCEnigma is consistent which makes me think town lean.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Gamma

[davesaz]

I saw the post number and tried to come up with something useful to say there.
Watch, learn, follow.

[davesaz]

I still townread her btw, what did you see?

[davesaz]

I was thiiiiiiis close to townreading gamma.

I think the anger from gamma is NAI, I'm still null on her.

Oops, you gave a read, of sorts.

[davesaz]

This is my first open setup I think. Does it show how many scum there are exactly? How do these things work.

The signup post says 4 scum when it's 17p.

[davesaz]

How do we have 71 pages and no compelling scumcases

I'd settle for some reads from most people. Would you like to contribute?

[davesaz]

I townread ari, I townread yessirr, I townread meuh, I don’t think I want de or furtive today. Im sort of coming around on them, furtive moreso.

Everyone else can go probably.

Don't really understand your specific townreads. Why?

[davesaz]

It’s gonna be kinda out there but yessirs play is a violent 180 from the townplay I’m used to seeing out of them, I’ve only played against them as scum though. So much so that I don’t see such a drastic play difference as coming from scum. I’d expect some kind of emulation of their town game if they were. So that’s where I’m at.

Yes, it's out there. You don't give any thought to scum 180ing from town play in order to avoid the issue of being close but not close enough?

[davesaz]

Things like, criticality of the gamestate, insistence on reads, wariness in reads, and constant re evaluation. It doesn’t live up to the expectation of yessir I had coming in which was why I initially wanted to call yess scum for it.

I read this as you think yess is scum from 1st reaction but go out of your way to ignore that?

[davesaz]

De,

I have been reading "de" as the/from, not as someone's initials. It caused me to plaster over a few things that had completely different meanings if read the other way.

[davesaz]

Siri, play despacito.

I'm totally out of touch with whatever meaning this has, if any.

[davesaz]

My radio is semi-permanently set on Classic Rewind (rock from the mid 70's to very early 90's) with occasional flips to Classic Vinyl (late 50's to early 70's).

[davesaz]

gob seems goblike but I don't have a real inclination there

That's me every game.

[davesaz]

Heh, posting that gave me an idea. I'd like to make a parody cover of "Money for Nothing" by Dire Straits. Call it "Townreads for Nothing.

[davesaz]

Dave are you town?

This type of question always cracks me up.
Yes

[davesaz]

What's a meme?

Spoiler: lol

I'm 62, think they call us boomers

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
I'd be back on Titus but don't want to flirt with a lim while she's AFK. That isn't an infinite thing but 7 days isn't crunch yet.

It's really tempting to go inquisition mode on Hu Tao. I think it's definitely in her scum range to have this be a something new as scum.

[davesaz]

I was talking about HoldtheSteady and their defense against me (davesaz pred). RCEnigma said HoldSteady was being scummy. I pushed back, now I am more in agreement with RCEnigma take.

You're not going to be able to get away with acting like I'm the same.

[davesaz]

I've given between 6 and 10 reads.

[davesaz]

Meuh feels weak town by interaction.
Naerys seems the same as she does as town, but I don't think I have seen a scum game and wouldn't put a lot of confidence on this.

[davesaz]

"why them not me?"

This is mostly an accumulated ~50 years of not fitting in way too often.

[davesaz]

since he

can't

hadn't yet

make it easily accessible:

Edit for accuracy.

[davesaz]

davesaz
Black n0. scum queen thing felt uncomfortable but I can see how confident town player can pull it off

Gamma Emerald Both meta and gameplay feel town
Meuh mostly vibe
Theta Alpine very difficult to read, approach to game seems town
RCEnigma I would expect inorganic reads if scum, these seem more accurate than not
Naerys Haven't noticed any departures from her usual, but this is a weak lean given lack of scum games to compare with.

DragonEater70 Feel is primarily town but the quantity is large enough that I haven't absorbed it. I like to keep people null till I fully understand what they're doing
Firebringer The claiming scum thing is within scum range. Approach to game seems solvy. Will need some VCA or a better feel of whether interactions are genuine
Aristeia I don't see anything either overtly town or scum.
Hu Tao Acting null on purpose, which is easily within range for either alignment so null she is.
gob I flat out don't know how to read gob.
usesPython I've read a lot of stuff which didn't really register one way or the other.

Bellaphant There isn't enough material to truly read this slot, scum lean on lack of proactive hunting
furtiveglance Very weak lean. Does not seem as inquisitive as previous games.

yessiree Felt off but I have a hard time saying exactly why. More a least town feel than a most scum.
Titus Something is missing. I'll feel bad if the reason it's missing is RL, but I have to call the posts the way I see them.

[davesaz]

Taking a closer look, I'm less sure of Naerys resembling prior games.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Theta

Serious vote btw

Do you have a case to present?

[davesaz]

40 post ISO with vague reads and no jokes probably flips scum

I'm making an assumption about Theta which may or may not be accurate, but for the purpose of this question I'll assume I'm right.
Do you interact much with people who think in another language and have to translate it to English? I do that a lot as a leader of a multi-national team.

[davesaz]

Fire has been saying he's scum, do you think that's real?

[davesaz]

Does everyone here still think I'm coasting or no

If you define coasting as not actively attempting to discover alignments or share your thoughts, then absolutely yes.

[davesaz]

I like to go with a town core of 1. Times I don't do that usually end with me handing scum the win in the end.

[davesaz]

Which ones don't u get

Only ones we got were the smile filter and the frowny face kyoko

If the "smile filter" was the yes/fire one, I took it as an evil grin. The kind of grin that scum have. Thus the danger of using images.

[davesaz]

I think the people accusing me of not trying or doing anything are the ones not doing anything or not reading. It's pretty funny.

How clear do you think you have been about why you have reads on the 5 or so people you've clearly stated a read on?

I think Gamma expects to be read as either town or scum. Null might be thought of as not paying attention or something.

[davesaz]

If multiple people have a similar opinion, it's much less likely to be fabricated.

[davesaz]

I think 2310 makes for an interesting comparison.

[davesaz]

I think the people accusing me of not trying or doing anything are the ones not doing anything or not reading. It's pretty funny.

How clear do you think you have been about why you have reads on the 5 or so people you've clearly stated a read on?

I think Gamma expects to be read as either town or scum. Null might be thought of as not paying attention or something.

Null to me means I lean no way either way. Am I expected to have reads on everyone? Why not complain at others who also said they have a few people as no read?

Can you answer the 1st half of the question? Do you think you've been clear on

why

you have the few reads you've given?

[davesaz]

I often feel conflicted because I don't like magical gut reads, especially town reads, but there are some players who I can't read any other way.

[davesaz]

Welcome back Alisae!

[davesaz]

Just when I thought gob was going soft.

[davesaz]

Jesus this is frustrating. Not a single case on me. Objections to voting people that should be pressured. Wtf.

I'm going to react to this as I read it. Not a single case

from

you is the issue.

[davesaz]

I feel like Titus would push a theory. The people are split thing is the only thing that's close and there isn't much followup.

[davesaz]

I think town Titus tries to make a case on someone, and scum Titus doesn't do that preferring to go along with something.
I've been virtually voting Titus all along, and saying we can use the time until enough people don't want to.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Titus

[davesaz]

I believe there are suggestions on how to do it in the opening posts.

[davesaz]

Reading Titus's pred might be interesting too.
Maybe look at reactions to DE's N0 if any.

[davesaz]

Using the word solve on d1 sounds pretty sus.

Do you have any reads

You town, Titus scum.

@Meuh I had pegged Titus as scum as my first actual read on replace in.

[davesaz]

gob could be Titus partner from voting patterns. I want to look at a recent Titus scum game to see how she handled partners there. Every game is different but philosophy may be recognizable.

[davesaz]

Difference is I know you aren't mafia

How would you know that?

[davesaz]

The only mech left is voting. Let's see some voting. If we spend most of the day all talk and no action then we won't even have wagon flow.

VOTE: RCEnigma

Not necessarily a scumread, might even be a townread. Just to get a little action while I try to load the game back into memory.

[davesaz]

VOTE: furtiveglance

[davesaz]

The only mech left is voting. Let's see some voting.

[davesaz]

I decided to choose someone who didn't follow my advice.

[davesaz]

You're next if I don't see a vote.

[davesaz]

Good, now is wanting people to vote so there is more voting to analyze likely to come from town or scum?

[davesaz]

No need to make the conversation about something that no longer matters.
If you think we can find scum by hunting cop hunters then by all means continue.
If not let's generate some voting patterns.

[davesaz]

You're next if I don't see a vote.

Good, now is wanting people to vote so there is more voting to analyze likely to come from town or scum?

How come when I did something like this it was bad

I don't think you did anything like this.
I'm voting people who aren't voting to cause more voting to happen.

[davesaz]

That's literally the only thing town has in mountainous.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Bellaphant

[davesaz]

…. I’m townreading all the people that are townreading my scumreads. Which seems like an issue for after de flips.

Why DE specifically?

[davesaz]

When I iso read RCE he looks town. Guess I'll have to read the people on the wagon to see if reasons for votes were given.

[davesaz]

Aristeia doesn't seem to give what I'd call reasons for anything important, or at least the reasons are vague enough that I don't see an obvious connection.

[davesaz]

As far as I can tell usesPython has only a POE and their vote on RCE is simply the least likely town in the POE. Am I understanding right?
Also I saw a comment about lots of TvT fights and we can avoid those by limming someone sooner than later. How would they know so many of the fights are TvT?

[davesaz]

Gamma, is your RCE scumread mainly due to his handling of your emotional content or is there something more to it?
If I'm wrong on my townread there it would be good to talk through our thought processes, but it's less useful to do that if there isn't other stuff you're seeing.

[davesaz]

RCEnigma
usesPython
DragonEater70
Naerys
Theta Alpine
furtiveglance
davesaz
Bellaphant

^^^ Not voting Titus.
Python seems insistent to not vote here for ~reasons~ which I haven't read or care about. Maybe ari has a point on trying to split the wagon but I think Python is most likely town.

Everyone else if ur not voting Titus I want to hear why she is solid town to u. Give me town-reasons not just a weak sauce defense of "theres better votes" or "not that scummy" or anything that isn't your willing to call a strong to die on a hill strong on calling town.

Come on

You can not vote a wagon while still not being solid town on them.

I found this while scanning for RCE in furtive's ISO. Initially it didn't catch my interest, but in hindsight it's the kind of thing a partner might use to justify not voting an obvscum wagon.

[davesaz]

I'm actually leading Hu Tao town and scum were equally divided on our wagons.

I think this spews Hu Tao town

lowkey

this might not be alignment indicative
titus joined the game as a heavily wagoned player
it can be assumed scum were already trying to dissociate from titus

the fact it is you and firebringer bringing this up should understandably have me looking at it with a squint

hmm

question is how good is titus at distancing like that

Assuming these two posts go together, Titus is very capable at distancing and changes up how she does it depending on who her partners are.

[davesaz]

I think the longer this day is going the more TvT the fights are getting, can we just go back to like pushing RCE or something

Sure, the self-vote was weird like I said

VOTE: RCE

I guess this is furtive's only reason for current vote?

[davesaz]

I noticed something and commented on it.
I'm having a rough time getting a read on furtive at all.

[davesaz]

@dave

do you have other reasons to SR furtive besides him not voting Titus? I have gotten miseliminated for not voting obvscum out because I had a personal reservation so that point holds little water imo

why was Titus obvscum

This has been said twice no with no justification

She froze, which for her is one of the two possible reactions to getting run up as scum.
When she gets run up as town she digs in and finds scum, or at least tells town what she thinks on the off chance they listen to her after.

[davesaz]

If you're town, sharing what you have a handle on would go a long way to help me read you.

[davesaz]

I had her as solid scum but not obv as soon as I saw a lack of any real digging, but initially discounted that lack as being RL related.

[davesaz]

Defending DE as town this game wasn’t on my bingo card but VOTE: Titus

I buy that he’s just town here.

Hmm... yea RCE doesnt really look good here. It feels like he just needed an excuse to buss partner.
VOTE: RCE

Completing my review of RCE votes, and full disclosure I decided to do this one in reverse ISO so

I'm recording my thought and then checking it

.
I'm a little suspicious that it's possible Naerys wanted to join the wagon but didn't have a pre-existing reason so dug up this post to give one.
It's possible she was just going along with prevailing discussion and I'd need to look at the discussion before this to see if that's the case.

Lunch has arrived. I shall eat before continuing.

[davesaz]

I stand by my opinion that Dragon´s push was an attempt to distract from Titus wagon.

This indicates it could be a dynamic thought.

[davesaz]

This indicates it could be a dynamic thought.

A what?

Dynamic in the sense that you were thinking it in the moment.
It means that you already had a different reason to look at the post that you quoted, so it wasn't just to find a reason to vote RCE.

[davesaz]

I agree that more closely looking at counterwagons to Titus is good btw. Maybe I'll do that next.

[davesaz]

If you're town, sharing what you have a handle on would go a long way to help me read you.

I just meant my reads

Yes, please share your reads, and most importantly

why

you have them.

[davesaz]

post, voter, votee, number of posts since last vote (abbreviated and uncapitalized names to make typing easy)
I captured ALL of the votes in the game so far, this is the last 500 posts or so up to the yeet.

Spoiler: data

2254 hutao python 16
2258 enchant python 4
2271 titus python 13
2295 rce python 24
2316 drew titus 21
2326 drew unvote 10
2337 hutao unvote 11
2352 hutao titus 15
2380 dave titus 28
2402 dragon titus 22
2520 titus dragon 118
2521 fire dragon 1
2523 python titus 2
2529 gamma unvote 6
2559 gamma naerys 30
2566 naerys titus 7
2567 yes titus 1
2608 aristeia unvote 41
2613 aristeia dragon 5
2627 dragon fire 14
2634 gamma dragon 7
2635 yes dragon 1
2652 rce titus 17
2669 aristeia titus 17
2674 dragon titus 5
2677 yes titus 3
2746 reset yeet 69

Rough summary (meaning I might miss something while summarizing but you can read the spoiler for exact details)
Python wagon forms
Drew hops on Titus and off after 10 posts
Hu Tao unvotes Python and then votes Titus 15 posts later
Dave and Dragon vote Titus
118 post voting hiatus
Titus votes Dragon. Fire votes Dragon the very next post
Python votes Titus
Gamma unvotes from Titus and votes Naerys 30 posts later

Naerys and yess vote Titus
Ari unvotes Titus (after 41 posts gap) and moves to Dragon (5 posts)
Dragon to Fire
Gamma (after 7) and yes (next post) to Dragon
RCE, ari, dragon, yes to Titus for yeet

It might be interesting to look at the timestamps of 2520 and 2521, and 2634/2635.

[davesaz]

Forgot to mention I normalized everything to the latest replacement for each slot.

[davesaz]

2520 2634 easier than guessing which pages those are on.

[davesaz]

I just noticed places where the next vote was the next post. The 4th column of the data.

[davesaz]

I hate it when someone I have no chance of reading gets replaced by someone I have no chance of reading.

[davesaz]

I didn't have any trouble understanding it.

[davesaz]

Scum can be correct and town can be incorrect.

[davesaz]

VOTE: yessiree

[davesaz]

[rant]

I always give people room for RL. I depend absolutely on other people doing it for me.

[/rant]

[davesaz]

I think the counterwagons deserve way more scrutiny than trying to call giving someone time for RL derailing a wagon and then bussing when time was up.

[davesaz]

I think the counterwagons deserve way more scrutiny than trying to call giving someone time for RL derailing a wagon and then bussing when time was up.

Can you expand on this

On the 2nd half of it, a bunch of people are trying to call Naerys and me scum for supposedly dragging our feet on Titus.

On the 1st half of it, Firebringer comes to mind as someone trying to push CWs to Titus, and he's also involved in trying to discredit me for quite openly holding off voting Titus until after some time passed. There are others, but I haven't had time to dig a lot as my non-work RL has been quite full this week.

[davesaz]

I can't read FB for shit and I'm starting to think naerys is town, but I do agree that Titus was bussed in some capacity. I don't really have a strong read on you at all, but I think I've found you difficult to read before.

What did you mean by counter wagons? Apart from yessiree I think most of the wagons yesterday were on town.

On tablet so I can't edit down.
Cw to scum are on town. For example the wagon on de.

[davesaz]

If you lim me I won't have to put up with mountainous any more, seems like a bonus to me.
I'm telling you, look on the Dragon wagon.

VOTE: Firebringer

I spent nearly half my waking hours driving today, and will have at most 3-4 hours total available tomorrow. I don't have time to case. Do something with the data I had time to assemble, or don't, as you wish. I don't really care that much, it's shaping up to be a cluster fuck anyway.

[davesaz]

Who would you prefer?

Do you have any independent reads?

[davesaz]

If Bellaphant has scumreads, then vote them rather than asking others who they prefer.

[davesaz]

5 days is more than enough time to see if actual wagons of substance develop in the absence of trying to get compromises.

[davesaz]

Titus votes Dragon. Fire votes Dragon the very next post
Python votes Titus
Gamma unvotes from Titus and votes Naerys 30 posts later

Naerys and yess vote Titus
Ari unvotes Titus (after 41 posts gap) and moves to Dragon (5 posts)
Dragon to Fire
Gamma (after 7) and yes (next post) to Dragon

Fire, Ari, Gamma, yess. I strongly feel we should figure out which of these 4 is(are) the scum who joined Titus on Dragon.

[davesaz]

If Bellaphant has scumreads, then vote them rather than asking others who they prefer.

I did! Not sure why the issue is with my vote specifically rather than enchants or pythons, but whatever.

With furtive specifically, he isn't approaching me in good faith. Neither are you: you see my pint about gamma, FB agrees, you ignore it in order to continue to shade me. It's also just ....weak, because are you really implying that it's scummy, that I can't fake reads as scum?

Compare for example how you and furtive have discussed me compared to rce, Ney and yessiree.
Furtive: Bella's just scum because?? But I won't engage and sort her
You: Bella's scum because she's....talking to people?
Rce: Bella might be town but I tr her too easily, I'm gonna leave this to others
Yessiree: I disagree with Bella's takes. Oh, I could see this being a legit thought process really
Ney; Bella.doesnr have a ton of content but I can see solve motivation

Which ones look like genuine, thought out takes to you?

Also, I'm less convinced about the votes on Titus meaning as much as we thought, as people were trying to give her a break for RL. I am still convinced that votes on the counter wagons are scummy. I CBA to check right now but furtive deffo had some weird votes last day phase (as did Dave, I hadn't realised he'd voted me yesterday??)

In absolute honesty, I don't

remember

a single thing you've said before this post. I am someone who plays primarily by memory.
I have to go back and read to know what your stances are.
Even when I do go back to read, I don't see the

why

of most of the things you're saying.

[davesaz]

has dave done anything townie yet?

Every fucking thing I've done in this game has been townie.
I promised myself that I'll stop reacting to shit like this the way I used to react to it.
Therefore I'll leave off what I really think about all of you and leave it at that.

[davesaz]

Scum can be found on the Dragon wagon.

[davesaz]

This sounds like a you problem.

Ask me questions if you want.

How about your thoughts on 3628?

[davesaz]

This sounds like a you problem.

Also I reject this. If you aren't making yourself clear, that's your problem not mine.

[davesaz]

I'm voting Firebringer for a reason.

[davesaz]

I have no delusions about being convincing. Convincing people of things is not my forte.

Being town I know any push on me is wrong. Pushing solely on "bussers" and completely ignoring the CWs is indicative of having an agenda to exclude the people voting the CW from suspicion.
I feel like Firebringer's position on that CW and voting pattern D1 along with his approach to today is the strongest fit to that agenda.
Focusing on "giving Titus time" as the indicator of "bussing" reinforces this, especially when I'm extremely well known for wanting to give people time and Firebringer must know this from past games.

[davesaz]

Claiming scum the entirety of D1 looks like a joke but I feel very confident it's something he could do as scum to look town, and do it with impunity.

The two votes together that someone thought looked like it was just conversation vibing could have been planned, and in the case of Titus and Fire it's exactly the type of thing I think they would plan from experience in prior games. (TBF I might not have seen it from them as a pair before but I'm 100% certain I've seen that kind of planning from Titus and maybe 75% certain I've seen it from Fire)

[davesaz]

Clarification/addition to 3644, I think Titus would plan both the conversation and the votes, and plan a time to be here together to make it look like it just happened live.

[davesaz]

Being town I know any push on me is wrong. Pushing solely on "bussers" and completely ignoring the CWs is indicative of having an agenda to exclude the people voting the CW from suspicion.

ok but why can't a town player genuinely believe that the entire scum team was bussing and not counterwagoning?

Statistically it's very unlikely. I think a scum team is most likely to split their attention to avoid the mass association. I can't rule it out other than to say don't look at me.

why is that indicative of an agenda'd scum player?

OK maybe I'm biased because I'm the target. It should be some on and some off. What's triggering me is the general lack of anyone trying to pick up the CW idea or even appear to think about it. But why Fire in particular is that I'd expect him to engage the alternative theory, not blow it off.

for example I know I am town and I think it's more likely mafia were bussing titus than counterwagoning to save her because titus had largely given up and didn't even bother to play.

Like I said above, some on and some off is the most likely case. In this situation I'm most suspicious of those who stayed on Titus but didn't say much, or rejoined very late under the guise of getting a lim before deadline but didn't call out RL as the reason they left. Voting somewhere else and coming back is also more suspicious than unvoting and coming back, since scum have motivation to hope another wagon picks up while town who thought Titus was scum all along have nothing else better to do with their vote. (other than attempting behavior modification ahem)

[davesaz]

Before you ask, no I haven't done that work myself. I'm my family's only driver, holidays, putting together

some

most

assembly required stuff, starting back to work today, etc.

[davesaz]

I haven't updated with any votes since the last time I posted a list like this. 2746 is end of d1. Excel is pretty powerful if enough time to load the data falls in your lap.

Spoiler: gamma votes

120 gamma furtive 1
143 gamma python 1
184 gamma yes 11
588 gamma titus 153
646 gamma unvote 21
1512 gamma yes 3
1597 gamma titus 4
1603 gamma unvote 6
1778 gamma hutao 3
1905 gamma unvote 37
1999 gamma titus 33
2086 gamma hutao 6
2211 gamma titus 14
2529 gamma unvote 6
2559 gamma naerys 30
2634 gamma dragon 7
2746 reset yeet 69
2948 gamma rce 29

Yup, that's a lot of votes. Might even be worth poking into how well supported they are, or not.

[davesaz]

Clarification/addition to 3644, I think Titus would plan both the conversation and the votes, and plan a time to be here together to make it look like it just happened live.

We've seen "unable to play due to irl" titus before, would be genuinely surprised if titus had more than a one liner in the scum PT this game

though hmm this is assuming that titus was maybe busier than she actually was

I'm unwilling to cast doubt on the IRL periods themselves. A critical part of the social contract that I abide by is that we don't lie about it and don't accuse others of lying.

My thought was along the lines of she's busy for an extended period, comes back, sees that her slot is pretty lost, and plans a coordinated burst of activity that doesn't pan out.

[davesaz]

Also, to Firebringer: If you're town then it sucks to be suspected this way, but look at this from the bright side. You're one of maybe half a dozen or so that I'd compliment by thinking they might deepwolf this hard. I have to try early and regret it if I'm wrong because it's higher chance of town winning than letting it slide and hoping you aren't the one.

[davesaz]

Being town I know any push on me is wrong. Pushing solely on "bussers" and completely ignoring the CWs is indicative of having an agenda to exclude the people voting the CW from suspicion.

ok but why can't a town player genuinely believe that the entire scum team was bussing and not counterwagoning?

Statistically it's very unlikely. I think a scum team is most likely to split their attention to avoid the mass association. I can't rule it out other than to say don't look at me.

why is that indicative of an agenda'd scum player?

OK maybe I'm biased because I'm the target. It should be some on and some off. What's triggering me is the general lack of anyone trying to pick up the CW idea or even appear to think about it. But why Fire in particular is that I'd expect him to engage the alternative theory, not blow it off.

for example I know I am town and I think it's more likely mafia were bussing titus than counterwagoning to save her because titus had largely given up and didn't even bother to play.

Like I said above, some on and some off is the most likely case. In this situation I'm most suspicious of those who stayed on Titus but didn't say much, or rejoined very late under the guise of getting a lim before deadline but didn't call out RL as the reason they left. Voting somewhere else and coming back is also more suspicious than unvoting and coming back, since scum have motivation to hope another wagon picks up while town who thought Titus was scum all along have nothing else better to do with their vote. (other than attempting behavior modification ahem)

As far as not putting emphasis on the counterwagon. You’re either pushing firebringer as the scum on the DE wagon trying to save Titus, or shooting in the dark with the rest in that group. But you can do that on or off the wagon. So it isn’t as appealing as just forming scumreads on their own merits.

I'm not following what you're trying to say here. What's the either / or thing about, and what does "doing it on or off the wagon" mean?

[davesaz]

Scum can want to be carried, and it's a great place for them if they get away with it.
The 4-wagon (or more) that built on Python from 2254 to 2295 contained Hu Tao, Enchant, Titus, RCE in that order.
So that's mostly a different set than was on Titus at 2181.

Drew voted Titus at 2316, unvoted 2326, and didn't vote again for the rest of the day. That's a good match for the pattern of voting to show in iso and then being off at eod. I went back and added post tags to make those two easier to reference after I hit submit.

[davesaz]

Kicking the tires, oops didn't realize so many votes. Yeah that's scummy af, have we talked about that?

[davesaz]

Drew can die any time

What motivation would I have to push you as scum?

There are more viable mislim options.

Mixed feelings about noting this. I generally don't think scumslips are a thing, but at the same time the language here has a subtle implication that Drew is conceding knowing Gamma is town.

I get that it's kinda an implied "if you're town why would I as scum push to mislim ..." but is leaving out the implied parts revealing?

[davesaz]

are we going to get a hua toa replacement btw. Or can a legit scum strategy be just to get players to replace out for mod kills or something lol

Let's not discuss OGI type things. Motivation for replacement is basically a forbidden subject nowadays.

[davesaz]

Drew is another player I usually scumread instinctively. This time it might be justified despite my TR on Black that went beyond it being my pred's n0.
I was about to ask if y'all had any feedback on my page bottom and top.

[davesaz]

3675 is more than that. Look at the posts linked near the end of 3674.

[davesaz]

idk that analysis makes me feel its more likely that Hua Tao could have been bussing and Titus wanted to make it look like a T/S

You're receptive to yess doing almost the same thing in a static manner using only the official VCs. I think the static look is susceptible to inaccuracy from using only those specific points in time, so I want to use the movement or flow of votes.

[davesaz]

It's getting late on a work night.

[davesaz]

i find gob interactions with Titus not feeling like a buddy talking to a buddy to me.

Isn't that what people do when they don't want to look like buddies?
Why are so many people hung up on this idea in general?

[davesaz]

I feel like this whole "spewed town by Titus" thing is totally overblown.
You think that distancing and doing things on purpose doesn't exist at all.
If someone is scummy for their interactions with

other

people I don't care how much the flipped scum makes them look town.

[davesaz]

alright aim assist works as it should so I will try to do my re-read soonish

Eh?

[davesaz]

For someone who has never heard of it, "coloring posts" is pretty obscure. How, where do you get it, and why does that help with only 2 deaders actually known?
I think it's valid to be puzzled.

[davesaz]

Ah, you're confbiasing yourself by townblocking. Not smart, but I know that I'm an outlier in thinking that strong town reads on deepscum early game is how towns lose games.

[davesaz]

has anyone even townread me except firebringer

Yes, and I complained bitterly about it. Did you not notice that?

[davesaz]

I know what I thought, and I posted it.
No, I can't point it out without reading all those pages again.

[davesaz]

VOTE: yessiree

[davesaz]

wagon on yessiree: theta, gamma, enchant, python, dave
I think RCE is next highest but I focused on getting a count over trying to update the whole VC

[davesaz]

Guys why are you rising up against the conftown's wagon

What are your own reads on the people being wagoned?

[davesaz]

Guys why are you rising up against the conftown's wagon

What are your own reads on the people being wagoned?

In a vacuum they're both sus. But the fact that one is being ignored despite attention from the conftown is concerning me.

Sus you say, but what's the relative read from your point of view?

Do you see Meuh's read on RCE as a strong read?

Which is more important, following the conftown or eliminating scum?

[davesaz]

^

Is this agreeing with the question in the post you're pointing to, or are you trying to say something else?

[davesaz]

Also I think RCE's wagon is 2nd, I'd hardly call that being ignored. So 3915 seems a bit overstated.

[davesaz]

I wouldn't mind if tonight's kill was someone voting me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is such an odd thing to say.

[davesaz]

Noting that yess got resistance at E-2.

VOTE: RCE
I don't mind seeing what happens with this one.
I also think Furtive would be worth limming.

[davesaz]

i swear dave i haven't played with u in a long time and u are so heavy focused on vote count analysis that i swear ur hiding behind it. But I am too lazy to actually go read ur last town games

I saw someone using vote movement analysis (wagonomics) and decided to see if it would do anything for me.
I'm even working on a tool to visualize it.

[davesaz]

Considering we've had like....three lots of resistance to the yes wagon, that's where I'd focus

Feels like I've made this point already.

[davesaz]

i think his hunting ISNT real.

Doesn't get any more real than this. You conveniently ignore that I suck at anything that isn't mechanics.

[davesaz]

Yeah, it's gonna be a tomorrow thing, the vcs aren't as frequent as they could be so it's gonna be annoying.

Spoiler: @Fire -- new toy!

I'm within 50-100 lines of code from being able to generate a VC after any vote and maybe a week or two from being able to step through interactively using the arrow keys. If I didn't care about it picking up misspellings and nicknames as unique people I could do it as soon as I get home from work. All anyone would need to use the tool would be Python 3, a couple packages installed with pip, and patience in filling out the config file for the game.

Note: not OGI as you can do exactly the same thing with mark 1 eyeballs and tons of patience.

[davesaz]

I really don't know what I think. I understand that's part of the issue. The vote analysis will work if I'm around to use it, with or without the VC program, though it does have a potential weakness in that a very well played scumteam can defeat VCA by not having a pattern at all.

[davesaz]

the only attempts at solving from davesaz i believed were solving were with furtive and it really didn't go anywhere with him. He asked some pointed questions to furtive, seemed like he was trying to sort him. Then no follow up or fall through. It just evaporated.

I feel the same way about how he treats me. One minute I am scum, one minute he is unsure and needs VCA. Its not even about consistency, I need to follow something of how your reads develop or change.

You are correct. I'm still town. 60ish hour work weeks will do that to me.

[davesaz]

Not my proudest moment lmao but hey it is what it is, Naerys was so scummy at times i can't believe she was town

There is a name for this but I can't remember what it is or whether it really means anything.

[davesaz]

I don't think Meuh voice is all that important

To give one caveat the only reason Meuh voice is important is because we have had a lot of people want to delegate responsibility to her.

Which I think is either lazy or scummy.
I haven't really gone into each one because I think I can find laziness in it all and it becomes NAI to me.

I feel that some are likely to be scum, but good luck telling which ones.

[davesaz]

i really don't have much sympathy for rl execuses, i hope ur doing alright davesaz but im in audit season and its crazy here too and i don't ask for any sympathy from any player here about how stressed i am in my personal life

You don't see me looking for sympathy either. I'm stating a fact and that's it.

[davesaz]

Not my proudest moment lmao but hey it is what it is, Naerys was so scummy at times i can't believe she was town

There is a name for this but I can't remember what it is or whether it really means anything.

Too wolf to be a wolf (those tend to flip scum anyways)

No, the pretending to have a read on your predecessor.

[davesaz]

The real question to ask is whether that reaction is AI.

[davesaz]

At work we're discouraged from using "sanity check" in our design and test documentation because it's potentially unsettling to people with mental illness.

[davesaz]

Notes to self: new focus Aristeia. Middle (?) going to Dragon, late returning to Titus.
Also there was a switch from someone to Furtive, who was that and who triggered it?

[davesaz]

Are you seriously considering the cop misclaimed a n0 inno?

[davesaz]

I caught Titus, anyone tells you different they're exaggerating.

[davesaz]

I had a scumlean by my 5th post and a hard scumread by my 10th.

[davesaz]

Fire thinks I diverted the wagon away from Titus and then bussed, and am not trying to solve.
I say I held off on Titus due to respect for RL she said she had, and I'm pretty bad at mountainous games.

[davesaz]

Fire thinks I diverted the wagon away from Titus and then bussed, and am not trying to solve.
I say I held off on Titus due to respect for RL she said she had, and I'm pretty bad at mountainous games.

I never said you tried to divert away from Titus.
Try again.

I'm not going to search that many posts. Voting Gamma (for pagetopping) and unvoting was part of what you pointed to. Slowing? Whatever.

[davesaz]

VOTE: naerys

i guess i can sheep meuh for a day

When a vote looks like this it doesn't exactly scream town.

[davesaz]

Fire thinks I diverted the wagon away from Titus and then bussed, and am not trying to solve.
I say I held off on Titus due to respect for RL she said she had, and I'm pretty bad at mountainous games.

I never said you tried to divert away from Titus.
Try again.

I'm not going to search that many posts. Voting Gamma (for pagetopping) and unvoting was part of what you pointed to. Slowing? Whatever.

That was us, dont think fb mentioned that

I haven't been able to hold this game in memory worth a damn, so wouldn't be surprising.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Naerys I'm fine with this

This one is even worse. Hu Tao didn't really give an opinion on Naerys at all, just complained that Naerys (and I) reacted badly to being told to make a scumcase.

[davesaz]

Can you do me a favor and just tell me where i am on the alignment scale.

I can't call you town. I can't really call you scum either. Your play doesn't add up to me. Probably playstyle but I simply can't read it.
And I'm not going to work with 4 pages of iso, just not gonna happen.

[davesaz]

Cause ur engaging me like u know im town and thats how i take all this.

I'm treating you like you couldn't find your ass with both hands. When confronted by lack of understanding I try to teach.

[davesaz]

If you weren't attacking me you'd be locktown probably, if I'm really honest about it.

[davesaz]

I stopped playing games for between 1 and 2 years because this is my personality not an act. I won't take shit for it.

[davesaz]

I just posted about two votes that are questionable, but it isn't enough to decide. It's like a game of clue, where I haven't seen enough cards to know the answer yet.
I don't play as a social game, other than certain people like Titus and Gamma who are fairly predictable to me since I know the social pattern. Mostly I play as a logic game.

[davesaz]

why would i be locktown just for not pushing you

Pushing makes you town. Not letting go when I give answers makes you unreadable.

[davesaz]

I just posted about two votes that are questionable, but it isn't enough to decide. It's like a game of clue, where

I haven't seen enough cards to know the answer yet

.
I don't play as a social game, other than certain people like Titus and Gamma who are fairly predictable to me since I know the social pattern. Mostly I play as a logic game.

who is mafia according to your logic game and why

I have said this so many times my fingers hurt.

[davesaz]

.forgotten voting your SRS

I believe I just said I didn't remember the game in general, did I not?

[davesaz]

Rcenigma, yess, hu tao slot from incomplete vote flow info.

[davesaz]

.forgotten voting your SRS

I believe I just said I didn't remember the game in general, did I not?

Sorry, apparently I just thought it.

[davesaz]

Actually I did say it, and then missed it when checking back.

[davesaz]

VOTE: naerys

i guess i can sheep meuh for a day

When a vote looks like this it doesn't exactly scream town.

VOTE: Naerys I'm fine with this

This one is even worse. Hu Tao didn't really give an opinion on Naerys at all, just complained that Naerys (and I) reacted badly to being told to make a scumcase.

This is me understanding and documenting what Bellaphant was trying to say.
I would SR Ari's vote less than Hu Tao, and less than the players I mentioned a few posts ago, because at least she had given a previous opinion on Naerys.
RCE and yess because they were the wagons before Furtive. I believe I commented on wanting to look at how that wagon came about, just haven't had time to look at it yet...

[davesaz]

furtiveglance (8) Bellaphant, RCEnigma, usesPython, yessiree, Firebringer, Aristeia, Gamma Emerald, Enchant

town lean, scum lean, town lean, scum lean, more of an enigma than anything else, town lean with some blemishes, flipped town, is this a replacement?

[davesaz]

RCE's read on furtive flops around like crazy. There is a fairly decent reasoning post on that vote, and I'm kinda only sus of the slot because of how so many other wagons seem to be CW to him.

[davesaz]

If i am in charge, game is officially circus

VOTE: Furtive

This is actually the 1st vote on furtive. Bellaphant's vote was a sheep. I didn't track down when Enchant moved off to leave Bella as 1st voter.