open 914: the coalition (this is completed)

[DArby]

Hey there everyone! I’m reading up now before I make my first real post in the next few hours. I haven’t played in a while so please bear with me. Are there any fresh read questions anyone has for my slot?

[DArby]

I’m around a quarter of a way through and so far me and who I’m taking over have very different reads on people. Although i understand the mechanics of this set up, im trying not to read ahead too much so i can have a natural reading thought process. I’ve gather the coalition failed for town win(?) Looking forward to seeing if either the two I have pinged as scum appear in the coalition.

[DArby]

Left for a bit but I’m now halfway through. Really enjoying reading aventurine and hope to play with him sometime.

Still have no idea what the end coalition was but I had scum read on May and Ceejay but tp’s 461 is such a good post that I had to stop and reconsider my opinion. Hope to be caught up by the end of the night but we’ll see.

[DArby]

the worst
implosion
Moros
May
Black
Tsawwassen (this is a bad read)
tired person
experience
Aventurine


as of right now
May should be higher but I'm so bad at reading May accurately she's such a significant loss vector aaaahhhh

HURT: all
HEAL: implosion, may


everyone else may now begin begging for inclusion

I could just be biased because my slot is at the bottom, but (imo) this is such an interesting flavor of bad take as not only is it a bad take in and of itself but it’s a bad take that was shared by their predicessor who I still somewhat scum read. I’ll come back to this probably soon.

[DArby]

Left for a bit but I’m now halfway through. Really enjoying reading aventurine and hope to play with him sometime.

Still have no idea what the end coalition was but I had scum read on May and Ceejay but tp’s 461 is such a good post that I had to stop and reconsider my opinion. Hope to be caught up by the end of the night but we’ll see.

may's in the coalition if you're interested.

Genuinely so sad I was spoiled but that’s what I get for jumping back here before I was finished.

Thanks for the heads up.

[DArby]

Since I’m allowing myself to be spoiled, Ive looked at the most recent VC. I do not agree with it and think I’ll go somewhere else. I’m not sure if other information has been presented but 783 just seemed odd coming from town and I feel some of their other logic is not gelling with my idea of town.

VOTE: The worst

[DArby]

Since I’m allowing myself to be spoiled, Ive looked at the most recent VC. I do not agree with it and think I’ll go somewhere else. I’m not sure if other information has been presented but 783 just seemed odd coming from town and I feel some of their other logic is not gelling with my idea of town.

VOTE: The worst

Do you think voting outside of the coalition is a good idea?

One of my most recent notes I wrote was that 1021 was a good point.

On my list but for another day I suppose.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: May
Tho Moros seems interesting reading up.

I have opinions on everyone except Exp, but I can’t tell if that’s a me thing or not.

[DArby]

i don't understand why that's given as a reason to reject a coalition that has wide support.

the worst, does it concern you that experience is voting for this and aventurine has expressed support for it?

well now it's definitely wrong.

i wasn't sure but i thought that if there was a worst and tsawwassen team then the worst's only option was to vote and hope it scared people off. and if he was town it was more likely he would be concerned by his scumreads supporting it.

now there's 3 people who aren't in the coalition voting for the coalition.

it's possible if it's the worst/aventurine but that pairing doesn't make sense to me.

the only way it isn't wrong is if experience or the worst are scum who voted for it to try to scare people away. i think that made sense to me when i thought it was the worst/tsawwassen, but since you hammered it that obviously isn't the case. i don't think the other possibilities make sense.

it's a lot more possible if tsawwassen is scum who didn't realize they hammered and the "welp" is "we just lost".

I understand that a lot of this is simple mech talk that could come from scum but it just reads as genuine to me. We mindmelded in the first quote a bit. The rest of it felt like Moros was thinking about the ramifications of everything in real time

Personally it’s why I’m interested in Moros today if May doesn’t work out, although I feel I couldn’t word it like that until you posted this. It looks like helpful mech related busytalk.

[DArby]

Quick thoughts:

Town: {Me, Black, Implo, tp (null town)}
Null: {tsa, Exp}
Scum: {worst, May, Moros}

My read on the worst started with Ceejay 199 and 227 where it feels like strong emotions of “come on how did you get there” with nothing to back it up outside of feeling unnatural when they’re changing their opinion as a townie should. Their 244 seems really ironic. I could prolly find more but this are quick notes. The worst fills a lot of the same problems I had with their predecessor’s play style. 783 is a townread for being friendly, articulate, and present, but black (who is also that) isn’t on the list (?) Again there’s more but quick notes.

May is my second strongest scum ping and for the life of me I don’t see how she got into the coalition. So much just screams busy work outside of mech talk (as I mentioned for 1021). She’s both driving the game but doesn’t seem to be solving for it. She’s speaking in riddles to me but I don’t think there’s a clear answer. Again, I’ll revisit this later.

Black is town and it’s so obvious that I refuse to elaborate further.

I want to wait a few flips to see more from tp.

[DArby]

Oh, a pagetop. how pleasant

[DArby]

i think DArby is my favorite replacement catchup by far. they feel like they have the goal of solving the game and getting their own reads across, and not anything more. it's efficient and straightforward. i think it feels very town-motivated.

I don't really agree with this., though there could be some bias here because I was scumreading his pred and I disagree with his read on ceejay/worst, but I don't like how he arrived at his reads. Most of his reads are half-baked. He tries to justify them but the justification is shallow at best. His read on the worst is based off discrediting a single readlist while ignoring everything else. His read on May and Moros share the same template of "mech busy talk". His implosion townread is based off a single post from implosion talking about his meta, etc etc...

He has Moros in his scumread but chooses to vote May when there was a wagon on Moros already. This attempt to shift the focus on the lim makes me think we were on the right track actually

I caught up on over 1,000 posts with no flips in the span of a night after not playing this form of mafia in almost 3 years, excuse me if my justifications seem half baked.

Also odd take that I stated moros is an interesting target but I wanted to go with my strongest scum read to see where that goes. Why should I just follow what everyone else is doing when I stated my strongest reads? Wouldn’t that just be sheeping the votes and not look town indicative either? I have a feeling that regardless of voting for Moros or May it would look scummy to you.

Also also, I did say 3 times in my last post these were quick thoughts I’d get back to later. I really hope you’re not discrediting me for not having full analysis while also saying to not expect it from you in the span of 2 posts.

[DArby]

Also please read that in a light sassy tone. I rarely try to come across as intentionally bitchy.

[DArby]

If it counts for anything I read implo as more of a passive aggressive type so plainly stating frustration like that feels natural coming from that angle imo

[DArby]

Also also, I did say 3 times in my last post these were quick thoughts I’d get back to later. I really hope you’re not discrediting me for not having full analysis while also saying to not expect it from you in the span of 2 posts.

The difference lies in not justifying your reads at all vs justifying your reads with shaky reasoning. You can get a sense of what I mean by if you compared tired person's ISO with yours.

We’re different people with different play styles idk what to tell you. It was pretty dead whenever I came in so I just started with my reasonings and I’m going from there, having my reads develop. I don’t think that’s a suspicious thing to do?

[DArby]

how confident are people in their black townreads? i genuindly do not feel that she has had to do anything but post to earn utr status so far is she like super polarised or something?

Black started as a flimsy confirmation bias townread for me because I felt May was scummy and I didn’t think they’d be the team together, which I know isn’t the most sound. Afterwards, post like 807 felt like it came from town because the whole convo between her and the worst felt on her end like she was solving without an agenda.

I’ll revisit the read if she survives past day 3

[DArby]

VOTE: implosion

If you think it’s implosion/may, why not just join May?

[DArby]

vote count 1.a !

coalition votes:

Tsawwassen:

May, Black, implosion, Moros, tired person

Moros:

implosion, Black, Moros, May, tired person

Black:

Black, May, tired person, Moros, implosion

the worst:

Black, May, tired person, Moros, implosion

experience:

May, implosion, tired person, Moros, Black

May:

Black, May, Tsawwassen, experience, tired person

tired person:

Black, May, Moros, Tsawwassen, experience

Aventurine:

(none proposed)

implosion:

(none proposed)

with 9 alive, it took 5 of the same vote to propose a coalition.

this is so confusin ot me bc like moros said if u have 3 people outside the coalition voting for it its guaranteed to b wrong. and at the same time i think that tas and experience would vote for a coalition without them as town even tho it's guaranteed to be a bad play. and i'm starting to think that the worst might be town. so i can actually see the scumteam being implosion/may, especially cuz neither voted for the coalition (which as implosion said, it's dangerous to have both scum inside).

additionally i'm a bit annoyed at moros not answering this:

obviously they are not. but im not sure how to tell where i was wrong.

Well yes i understand this, but presumably you have reasons for each individual in the coalition for why you think that they are town, even knowing that one or more of those reasons are wrong. I'd like to know what those chief reasons are in the current state of where your head is at, without you having reread it. It doesn't have to be in depth, just like, a sentence or two on each person.

i would also lika that, moros

but unfortunaltey i don't think it means it's scum. in fact not answering might mean that it's town and that it's thoughts have moved on.

I’m sorry but could you break down why you this tsa and exp would vote for the coalition with them outside of town if it was established that it would be a bad play for the town?

[DArby]

*why they would vote for it outside of town and it doesn’t look scummy to you?

[DArby]

reading up now.
will post thoughts as i go

What is your opinion in Black’s vote changes in the last few pages?

[DArby]

I want to wait a few flips to see more from tp.

why?

I genuinely have no opinion on tp so far. If I vote tp today it’d be a sheep vote.

[DArby]

I understand that a lot of this is simple mech talk that could come from scum but it just reads as genuine to me. We mindmelded in the first quote a bit. The rest of it felt like Moros was thinking about the ramifications of everything in real time

I should have directed the question to Black.

@black: with two votes mind melding with Moros in a row, are there any places the two of you differ in your opinion?

[DArby]

I really did plan on writing something bigger against May or worst but at this point in the game I feel it’d be a lot of work to go off of circumstantial vibes and I don’t feel like leading a push right now.

What’s up with people mind melding in this game tho?

[DArby]

I really did plan on writing something bigger against May or worst but at this point in the game I feel it’d be a lot of work to go off of circumstantial vibes and I don’t feel like leading a push right now.

What’s up with people mind melding in this game tho?

You should do it anyway

I crack immensely under light pressure so you got it.

I've kinda flipped flopped a bit while writing May and I just don't have an opinion on her slot anymore so there's that. It really boiled down to I caught up too quickly and I didn't soak in that May is actually doing shit. In my defense, it was a lot of reading with little confirmed info (ie flips).

The Worst/ceejay I still scumread tho. I'm not going to belabor the points I made last time but 348 is kinda weird. Earlier Black pointed out that ceejay's scum game was different then to which ceejay basically said that he sees it but has nothing to say. That's kinda funny because Black is 100% right. Ceejay was doing more by that games post 164 than this one's 350. That's also an odd response especially considering:

I do remember a prior post where Moros remarked that someone was looking like they were intentionally trying to look like they didn't want to be townread and that was worrying, and the subject of the post responded to it with something along the lines of "I fail to see how that would be worrying"(?)
The reason why it's worrying is because not trying to be townread is a towntell, but intentionally not trying to be townread looks like you're trying to mimic this towntell and that more likely than not comes from scum

isn't it easier to just aim to get townread than to go through this? I don't get it but okay I guess

I'm not sure if this makes sense outside of my head but it feels like:

Black and ceejay played together where ceejay was scum and played a certain kinda way ->
ceejay plays in the opposite way to not ping himself ->
ceejay has an open opportunity to try and get towncred by showing distance between this game and the game with Black where he was scum and intentionally refuses to take it ->
ceejay then misdirects to hint at how scum should actually play

Is there more? Probably. But my break is almost over and I wanted to post something.

[DArby]

DArby care to join us on tired person?

Well my May reads are out so I'll consider it. I don't want anyone to hammer right now so I won't vote at this moment

[DArby]

If you were limmed today, what would you want to be final points you’d want people to think of in light of your flip? How do you feel about being put on the block so to speak?

[DArby]

darby u have moros in ur scum pool but never explained why. can u explain y?

I spoke about it earlier but I mainly felt it was just speaking more theory then actually helping the town. Now that I’m playing the game I don’t have any strong reads on a good half of the group.

[DArby]

I'm not sure if this makes sense outside of my head but it feels like:

Black and ceejay played together where ceejay was scum and played a certain kinda way ->
ceejay plays in the opposite way to not ping himself ->
ceejay has an open opportunity to try and get towncred by showing distance between this game and the game with Black where he was scum and intentionally refuses to take it ->
ceejay then misdirects to hint at how scum should actually play

Is there more? Probably. But my break is almost over and I wanted to post something.

If there were any stakes I'd be yelling about this read

This does make a lot of sense if you come from a place of having already decided that ceejay's slot is scum. As it stands, I think you're trying to read the slot in earnest, which means this is a kind of wifom-ey confirmation bias argument

Idk feel free to scum case me I love that but you might need to be a bit more focused because I think part of the exercise you're undertaking in this post is trying to convince yourself on the read

Well yeah, I posted another reason why I feel your slot is scum as well. It’s not solely because of my confirmation bias.

[DArby]

Hey I’m glad everyone thinks I’m town but I was hoping for a response in what I actually said or if that makes sense as an argument

[DArby]

Hey I’m glad everyone thinks I’m town but I was hoping for a response in what I actually said or if that makes sense as an argument

i think it's possible but i don't know if there's reason to believe that it's more likely than the town explanation. i thought ceejay's play was suspicious as well but that point doesn't convince me much. i think the worst has been more townie.

Hey I’m glad everyone thinks I’m town but I was hoping for a response in what I actually said or if that makes sense as an argument

it's not correct. it has merits as an argument, there are lightly fallacious aspects that fall within the realm of standard rhetoric. in the scheme of things, i think it's misguided but reasonable and authentic.

i'm also biased as heck

You two are 2/3 of who I was hoping to respond to this actually, so thanks.

[DArby]

I really like 1314 but I kinda don’t like 1316.

Obviously the worst and exp can’t be a scum team but a man can dream.

[DArby]

appreciate you, i was fully expecting you to tell me to go away

I'm lightly bitchy but never maliciously lol.

[DArby]

Have fun!

[DArby]

I was going to write a bunch of stuff about potential theories in regards to info we could obtain from the flip/possible nk action, but I felt that was going to be too WIFOM/could easily be just not done to discredit my theory/is probably just basic mech talking points so it wouldn't serve much use anyway. Then I came to the realization that I don't think there's any further information I could get from today. I'd prefer Moros but I'm fine with tp. I don't have any strong coalition reads.

I'd like to give my intent to L-1 real time tomorrow unless there's any objections.

I'm giving my intent now vs voting because I don't want someone to lolhammer just yet.

[DArby]

i do what feels good i don't know if i have, like, a straightforward to answer to that

your reads feel political rn too

Can you explain what you mean by political?

[DArby]

Right now if I had to guess i feel scum is between:

{exp, the worst} and {tp, moros}

If Black is scum gg. If May or Implo is scum we might have a chance still.

Depending on how tp flips I think town might do well going outside of the coalition. But ig we’ll see what happens when it happens

[DArby]

Oh I forgot tsa, sorry. You’re still a null read but if you’re scum I’m sure we’ll get you

[DArby]

Burst posting is usually a tiebreaker I wish I had a smoking gun.

This elimination doesn't feel like it's on unambiguous scum but everyone else has done something more townreadable

Any objection to me playing my L-1 vote right now?

[DArby]

I dropped a coke all over my socks I hate travelling

[DArby]

Hmmm

[DArby]

I think if tp flips red the worst is probably scum buddies. If tp flips green then maybe implo is a viable lim?

[DArby]

VOTE: tp

[DArby]

If you were scum that’d be a wildly bad play

[DArby]

If you did as scum this game might end day two so

[DArby]

Are you willing to vote for tp then?

[DArby]

Yeah I guess

[DArby]

Well good luck town I’ll be rooting for you!

[DArby]

Gg all! Well played